How to watch the Iowa caucuses like an expert

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Jan 08, 2024 View in browser   By Madison Fernandez Presented by Top Line We are just one week away from the Iowa caucuses — the first concrete test of former President Donald Trump’s momentum in the GOP presidential primary. Trump is widely expected to win the first nominating contest. But next week’s results could still give us a clearer picture of how the rest of the primary is going to go: Will it be a Trump blowout, or could he face some serious competition? Former President Donald Trump speaks during a commit to caucus rally on Jan. 6, 2024, in Clinton, Iowa. | Charlie Neibergall/AP Photo Score gathered together some of POLITICO’s most tuned-in presidential campaign reporters to share what they’re keeping an eye on in the final stretch before the Iowa caucuses. What are you watching throughout the week? What's so strange about this next week is that Trump will be spending two days — Tuesday and Thursday — sitting in courtrooms rather than out on the campaign trail. He was in Iowa over the weekend, and has plans to do a Fox News town hall and a rally blitz next weekend. But the split screen of a leading candidate in court and on the trail will be unprecedented and weird. — Meridith McGraw Does former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley have massive crowds trying to see her in Iowa this week? And I don’t mean “Did her advance staff successfully fill a 200-person room to capacity?” because they’ve done a great job of that in Iowa for nearly a year now. But with a few other candidates also fighting for voters’ attention this week across the state, I’m interested in whether droves of Iowans will turn up to see her. — Natalie Allison I’m interested to hear how well Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is resonating. On paper, DeSantis did everything he was supposed to do to win Iowa by having a strong conservative policy record, visiting all 99 counties and getting the most coveted endorsements. For voters who aren’t convinced by his candidacy: What’s missing? — Kimberly Leonard I'm watching whether businessperson Vivek Ramaswamy turns out a non-traditional caucus-goer that maybe hasn't caucused before, including college students. His argument is that these supporters aren't registering in the polls, which show him in fourth. — Adam Wren Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie means it when he says he’s staking his campaign on New Hampshire. While everyone else is camping out in Iowa this week, Christie is returning to the Granite State on Tuesday for a multi-day swing and is in the midst of a seven-figure advertising blitz there. His allied super PAC is also up on the airwaves in the Granite State. Christie's campaign says it doesn’t have anyone on the ground in Iowa and has no plans to go there. — Lisa Kashinsky What’s one thing you’ll be watching on the night of the caucus? I'll be paying attention to the Northwest corner of the state. The four counties in the corner of the state are ruby red, having the highest concentration of Republicans and predominantly evangelical Christian populations. It will be interesting to see where their support goes, and what strength Trump has there versus his rivals. — Meridith Do Iowa's Evangelicals stick with Trump, or does the Bob Vander Plaats machine crank to life and deliver Ron DeSantis a surprise victory? — Adam Trump is poised to take Iowa. But it’s still possible that DeSantis will exceed expectations. I’ll be watching how his campaign frames the results. If he does worse than expected: Who will be blamed? — Kimberly I'll be watching to see whether we get a result at all. We all remember Democrats' meltdown four years ago. But Republicans' record here isn't unblemished either. Back in the 2012 caucuses, it appeared then-former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney had won. Then, two weeks later, the state GOP said, no, former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) actually won. Then the next day, it said it was too close to call. Finally, in a statement in the middle of the night some 17 days after the caucuses, the state party officially declared Santorum the winner. — Steve Shepard What would count as a good night for the candidate you’re covering? I was reminded by a Trump staffer that no candidate has ever won Iowa by more than 12 points. The Trump campaign is looking to win by an even greater margin than that, and so I'll be looking to see if his dominance in the polls is reflected in Monday's results. — Meridith By Haley’s top surrogate Chris Sununu’s measure, it’s coming in second in Iowa. He announced recently that she would, so hard to say anything less than that (even a close third) can count as a win there for her now. — Natalie DeSantis needs at a minimum to come in as a close second place, otherwise there will be a widespread sense that his campaign is effectively over. That kind of showing would give some credence to the idea that he has a shot against Trump and also give him momentum heading into other early primary states. It would also help vindicate his all-in-on-Iowa strategy. — Kimberly Happy Monday. Many thanks to Meridith, Natalie, Kimberly, Adam, Lisa and Steve for the insight today. What are you keeping an eye on this week? Let me know at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses: 7 Days until the New Hampshire presidential primaries: 15 Days until the Nevada presidential primaries: 29 Days until the Nevada GOP caucus: 31 Days until the South Carolina Republican presidential primary: 47 Days until Super Tuesday: 57 Days until the Republican National Convention: 190 Days until the Democratic National Convention: 225 Days until the 2024 election: 303   A message from PREMION Political: Streaming TV and the Political Market: From a Midterm Year to a Presidential. As eyeballs continue to move away from linear TV and the time and attention of consumers and voters shifts to streaming, political ad dollars must move with them. A report by Campaigns & Elections and Premion provides a practical guide for political advertisers. Click to download the complimentary report now.   Presidential Big Board THE FINAL COUNTDOWN — Trump’s political operation is seeking to “bury” Haley in the final stretch before voting begins, Alex Isenstadt and Meridith write. Trump spent most of 2023 “focusing almost exclusively” on taking down DeSantis, but “the Trump apparatus has determined that Haley now requires a greater share of its resources than he does.” … Haley, for her part, has big money behind her. Americans for Prosperity Action has spent more than $20 million backing her so far, and she has earned the support of some Republican megadonors. “Haley and her allies, newly embraced by a cohort of the country’s wealthiest people, are now spending more on television than any of their competitors, including Trump,” Natalie writes. TRUMP TRIALS — The Supreme Court will wade into a case out of Colorado challenging Trump’s eligibility to run for president. Last month, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled that Trump cannot run for reelection because he engaged in an insurrection. Oral arguments are set for Feb. 8, when ballots for some overseas and military voters registered in Colorado will have already been mailed out. ANOTHER ONE — No Labels has qualified as a political party in Maine. Last year, Democratic Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows sent a cease-and-desist letter to No Labels accusing the group of misleading voters into enrolling. No Labels is now on the ballot in 13 states, with a total of 107 electoral votes.   Tune in on Wednesday, Jan. 10, as POLITICO explores Taiwan's upcoming presidential election. Hear from our panel on the potential outcomes to the race and the profound implications for U.S.-China relations depending on who wins. REGISTER HERE.     Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories. CAMPAIGN INTEL ABORTION ON THE BALLOT — Abortion-rights advocates in Florida collected enough signatures to put a measure protecting the procedure on the ballot this November. But the initiative still faces a court challenge before it makes it before voters. Around a dozen states are looking to codify abortion rights this year. RETIREMENT RADAR — Rep. Doug Lamborn (R-Colo.) is retiring at the end of the term. CO-05 leans Republican. Lamborn’s retirement means that all districts in the state currently held by the GOP will be open this year: Rep. Ken Buck in CO-04 is also retiring, and Rep. Lauren Boebert of CO-03 is running in Buck’s district. 2024 WATCH — Former Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn is joining the crowded Democratic field to replace retiring Democratic Rep. John Sarbanes in the blue MD-03. Dunn, who recently left the force, has been outspoken about the Capitol insurrection and testified before the Jan. 6 select panel about his experiences on that day. … Missouri state Sen. Mary Elizabeth Coleman is running for deep red MO-03 to succeed retiring Republican Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer, becoming the first Republican to jump in the race. A host of current and former state legislators are also considering bids. PARTY PROBLEMS — Members of the Michigan Republican Party voted over the weekend to remove Chair Kristina Karamo, a noted election denier who unsuccessfully ran for secretary of state in 2022. Malinda Pego, Karamo’s co-chair, said that she has taken the role of acting chair, but Karamo called the vote “illegitimate” and said she is still chair. Efforts have been underway for months to replace her as the party is in financial straits. … Florida Republicans are voting today to oust the party’s embattled chair Christian Ziegler, who has been accused of rape. The state party’s executive board previously voted to strip him of his power, and Monday’s vote is poised to fully remove him from the position. IT’S A NO FROM ME — Democratic Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown is not running for Congress in soon-to-be-vacant NY-26. Democratic Rep. Brian Higgins is stepping down in February to become the head of a performing arts center in Buffalo. A special election cannot be set until he officially steps down, and party leaders choose a candidate rather than holding a primary. Democratic state Sen. Tim Kennedy is in the running for the seat. ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) endorsed former Rep. Gil Cisneros in the race for CA-31 to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Grace Napolitano. Around a dozen other members of the California congressional delegation have backed Cisneros among the crowded field of Democrats in the safe blue district.   A message from PREMION Political:   THE CASH DASH Q4 TABS — CA-Sen: Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) brought in around $6.3 million last quarter in the race for Senate. His campaign said it entered 2024 with nearly $35 million in the bank. … IA-01: Democrat Christina Bohannan said she brought in $650,000 as she runs for a second time to challenge Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks. Bohannan lost by around 7 points in 2022. … NY-01: Democrat Nancy Goroff has raised $614,000 in her bid to unseat Republican Rep. Nick LaLota. Her campaign said it had $511,000 in the bank. … KS-03: Incumbent Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids’ campaign said it raised more than $600,000 and had $1.6 million on hand. KS-03 — the only congressional district in the state held by a Democrat — is a top target for Republicans.   GLOBAL PLAYBOOK IS TAKING YOU TO DAVOS! Unlock the insider's guide to one of the world's most influential gatherings as POLITICO's Global Playbook takes you behind the scenes of the 2024 World Economic Forum. Author Suzanne Lynch will be on the ground in the Swiss Alps, bringing you the exclusive conversations, shifting power dynamics and groundbreaking ideas shaping the agenda in Davos. Stay in the know with POLITICO's Global Playbook, your VIP pass to the world’s most influential gatherings. SUBSCRIBE NOW.     AS SEEN ON TV MT-Sen — Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) is looking to separate himself from Biden, running a spot with a hunter applauding him for going after the Biden administration over the Second Amendment. AZ-01, CA-27, CA-41, MO-08, NC-09, NY-04, NY-21, OH-04, PA-10, VA-02, WI-03 — Courage for America, an advocacy group, is hitting Republicans in districts across the country with a six-figure ad buy about Jan. 6, featuring former Metropolitan Police Officer Michael Fanone. Many of those districts — AZ-01, CA-27, CA-41, NY-04, PA-10, VA-02 and WI-03, held by Reps. David Schweikert, Mike Garcia, Ken Calvert, Anthony D’Esposito, Scott Perry, Jennifer Kiggans and Derrick Van Orden, respectively — are battleground seats. The NY-21 ad goes after House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, who over the weekend declined to commit to certifying the results of the 2024 election. STAFFING UP — Max Glass, Jr. is campaign manager for Democratic New Jersey first lady Tammy Murphy’s Senate campaign. Storm Wyche is political director; Molly Murphy is finance director; Alexandra Altman is communications director; Will Schwartz is research director; and Dan Bryan is chief strategist. CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — “Jeepers. I have not decided that.” — Democratic Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers on if he’s running for reelection in 2026.   A message from PREMION Political: Premium OTT for winning electoral & issue advocacy campaigns Nielsen reports TV viewers are continuing to choose streaming over cable. Premium OTT is the best way to engage those viewers for winning campaigns in 2024.  PREMION Political has the dedicated and experienced team- plus proven & new premium products, including programmatic, dynamic creative, and incremental reach attribution- to help you win. A report by Campaigns & Elections and Premion provides a practical guide for political advertisers. Download the complimentary report, Streaming TV and the Political Market: From a Midterm Year to a Presidential here.     Follow us on Twitter Steven Shepard @politico_steve Zach Montellaro @zachmontellaro Ally Mutnick @allymutnick Madison Fernandez @madfernandez616   Follow us

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