| | | | |  | | By Eli Okun | | | |  The Trump train is chugging along to New Hampshire. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO | After eight-and-a-half years of trying and mostly failing to stop him, the anti-DONALD TRUMP wing of the Republican Party may have its last chance tomorrow to stop the frontrunner from winning a third consecutive presidential nomination. That’s an unusual reality to encounter at the New Hampshire primary, when hardly any voters have yet spoken and the race is often just beginning. But NIKKI HALEY, Trump’s final remaining major opponent, faces immense pressure to overperform and prove herself a real alternative to the frontrunner before the map gets even Trumpier. USA Today’s Francesca Chambers outlines what a Haley upset might look like: huge support from independents and crossover Democrats; unexpectedly high turnout from her base; stanched bleeding from conservatives; and a boost from backers of CHRIS CHRISTIE and Gov. CHRIS SUNUNU. Haley has pulled in half a million dollars in donations in the day since Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS dropped out, per The Dispatch’s David Drucker. In Derry, Christie fans tell Axios’ Sophia Cai they want to help stage a Haley shocker. And many women supporting Haley say it’s a relief not to have to endorse Trump’s misogyny, Reuters’ James Oliphant reports from Epping. Never Trumpers see New Hampshire as a make-or-break moment, Bloomberg’s Nancy Cook reports — and, to be sure, break looks likelier than make. “I think it is all over,” former New Hampshire GOP Chair JENNIFER HORN tells her. The Trump train is chugging along: A new WaPo-Monmouth poll (conducted before DeSantis exited) has Trump leading Haley, 52% to 34%. Rep. NANCY MACE (R-S.C.), who is Haley’s congresswoman and benefited from her support against a Trump-backed challenger in 2022, nonetheless today endorsed Trump, as she told AP’s Meg Kinnard in Charleston. Trump’s bringing out the big guns tonight at a Laconia rally, where he’ll be joined by former rivals VIVEK RAMASWAMY, Sen. TIM SCOTT (R-S.C.) and North Dakota Gov. DOUG BURGUM in a “show of force,” Fox News’ Brooke Singman scooped. Part of the trouble for Haley is that, despite having finally landed the one-on-one contest she (and every other Trump challenger) wanted, she now faces the undiluted power of his political machine, NYT’s Lisa Lerer, Jazmine Ulloa and Michael Bender write. Beyond the Granite State, the South Carolina primary poses a “massive wood chipper of multiple proportions,” pollster SCOTT HUFFMON quips to The Messenger’s Stephanie Murray. The other problem is that anti-Trump forces are still scattered, even after all this. Big money on Wall Street has basically given up on the hope of beating Trump and is starting to accept his victory as inevitable, CNBC’s Brian Schwartz reports. And Haley’s line-straddling with Trump — positioning herself as a conservative who refused to condemn him outright for years — has turned off many of the very centrists she needs most, NOTUS’ Alex Roarty and Casey Murray report from Manchester. It all adds up to the “Last Exit Before Trump,” writes NYT’s Nate Cohn. More New Hampshire reading: “A Border Wall to the North? Republicans Want to Discuss,” by NYT’s Jazmine Ulloa in Pittsburg … “Once a Romney enclave, this New Hampshire town is turning into ‘Trump country,’” by the Deseret News’ Samuel Benson in Wolfeboro HURRY UP AND WAIT — A high-stakes faceoff between Trump and E. JEAN CARROLL in the defamation trial stemming from her allegation of sexual abuse was delayed today, as Judge LEWIS KAPLAN dismissed the court for the day due to a sick juror. Trump had planned to testify; his lawyers requested that his testimony be delayed to Wednesday due to the New Hampshire primary tomorrow. Kaplan also said he’d reject the Trump team’s latest request for a mistrial. Updates from CNN Good Monday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.
| | | | A message from Electronic Payments Coalition: CREDIT UNIONS & COMMUNITY BANKS IN All 50 STATES OPPOSE THE DURBIN-MARSHALL CREDIT CARD BILL: Local credit unions and community banks serve an essential role in supporting Main Street. So, when 10,000+ credit unions and community banks throughout the country oppose the Durbin-Marshall credit card bill, Congress should pay attention. Durbin-Marshall lines the pockets of corporate mega-stores by shifting costs and risks to credit unions, community banks, and their 140 million customers. Click here to learn more. | | | |  | 7 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | |  North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum's retirement will leave the race for governor wide open. | Mark J. Terrill, File/AP Photo | 1. HANGING IT UP: Burgum, fresh off a failed presidential bid, announced today that he won’t run for a third term in office, The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead’s Patrick Springer reports from Bismarck. (Could a Trump Cabinet post be next?) Elected in 2016 as a political neophyte, the extraordinarily wealthy businessman’s record in office includes the pandemic response, income tax cuts, a major focus on energy and a near-total ban on abortion. His retirement will leave the race for governor wide open, especially in the all-important Republican primary. 2. THE OTHER NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY: A digitally manipulated robocall that poses as President JOE BIDEN’s voice appears to encourage New Hampshire Democrats not to vote in tomorrow’s primary, NBC’s Alex Seitz-Wald and Mike Memoli scooped from Manchester. Authorities are investigating. Beyond the dirty tricks, it’ll be a strange Election Day: a purely symbolic Democratic primary that will contribute no delegates, and one in which Biden won’t appear on the ballot — but a dominant write-in campaign for him is expected to cruise to easy victory nonetheless. From Rochester, Semafor’s Dave Weigel notes the striking factoid that Biden now has more primary opponents than Trump, including Rep. DEAN PHILLIPS (D-Minn.), MARIANNE WILLIAMSON and a campaign to write in “cease-fire.” Phillips is setting his bar for success at somewhere in the mid-20s, he tells WSJ’s Molly Ball in Nashua. 3. THE NEXT ABORTION REFERENDUM PUSH: Colorado advocates are the latest group to launch a drive to get a measure protecting abortion rights on the ballot, NBC’s Adam Edelman reports. The coalition is kicking off its work to gather the requisite signatures, with an eye toward the November ballot. Unlike many of the other states where a similar process is underway, however, Colorado is a state where abortion is already legal. Activists say that regardless, enshrining the rights into the state constitution would ensure their protection for generations to come, regardless of which party rules. (Putting it to voters could also juice Democratic turnout.) The threshold is a bit higher in Colorado than elsewhere: It would have to pass with 55%.
| | | | STEP INSIDE THE GOLDEN STATE POLITICAL ARENA: POLITICO’s California Playbook newsletter provides a front row seat to the most important political news percolating in the state’s power centers, from Sacramento and Los Angeles to Silicon Valley. Authors Lara Korte and Dustin Gardiner deliver exclusive news, buzzy scoops and behind-the-scenes details that you simply will not get anywhere else. Subscribe today and stay ahead of the game! | | | | | 4. THIN RECORD: House Republicans are struggling to sell their record to voters this fall, because they’ve spent their time in the majority so far mostly consumed by infighting without passing major legislation into law, NBC’s Sahil Kapur reports. Multiple significant bills currently in the works, from tax reforms to an immigration crackdown, could yet change that this year. But Democrats plan to hammer the GOP for having overseen “a historically unproductive congressional session.” And the challenge could be exacerbated thanks to Trump “making ‘retribution’ against his enemies, rather than shared policy goals, the centerpiece of his comeback bid.” 5. BY THE NUMBERS: “Biden administration has admitted more than 1 million migrants into U.S. under parole policy Congress is considering restricting,” by CBS’ Camilo Montoya-Galvez: “Since President Biden took office in 2021, his administration has used immigration parole at a historic scale, invoking the decades-old law to welcome hundreds of thousands of foreigners fleeing armed conflicts in Afghanistan and Ukraine, or political and economic crises in countries like Haiti and Venezuela. … Republican leaders in Washington and several states have accused the Biden administration of abusing the parole law, which they argue is intended to be used only in limited cases.” 6. DEMOCRACY WATCH: Does Trump really pose a threat of becoming a dictator? N.Y. Mag’s David Freedlander, who thinks he very much does, has an interesting piece interviewing notable thinkers who consider the fears overblown or misguided. MATTHEW CONTINETTI, MARTIN GURRI, ROGER KIMBALL and more make the case that concerns about authoritarianism are either way off base or significantly overstating things; Freedlander comes away less than convinced. 7. BACK TO BASICS: “A ‘Revolutionary’ Way to Feed the World That’s Very Old,” by NYT’s Somini Sengupta: “Instead of urging developing countries to grow only huge amounts of staple grains, like maize, as American policy has done for decades in Africa, [CARY FOWLER, the State Department’s global envoy for food security,] is promoting a return to the great variety of traditional crops that people used to grow more of, like cowpeas, cassava and a range of millets.”
| | | | CONGRESS OVERDRIVE: Since day one, POLITICO has been laser-focused on Capitol Hill, serving up the juiciest Congress coverage. Now, we’re upping our game to ensure you’re up to speed and in the know on every tasty morsel and newsy nugget from inside the Capitol Dome, around the clock. Wake up, read Playbook AM, get up to speed at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report, and fuel your nightly conversations with Inside Congress in the evening. Plus, never miss a beat with buzzy, real-time updates throughout the day via our Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Barack Obama worries that Joe Biden has a lot of work to do to win over young voters. Elon Musk visited Auschwitz. Gus Bilirakis is trying to bring some structure to college student-athlete pay. IN MEMORIAM — “Charles O. Jones, Expert on Congress and the Presidency, Dies at 92,” by NYT’s Adam Nossiter: “As a professor of political science and an author, he displayed a distinctive gift for simplifying the complexities of the American political system.” MEDIA MOVES — John Fritze is now a reporter covering the Supreme Court for CNN. He previously covered the court for USA Today. … Carly Roman will be weekend evening editor for NBC News’ digital politics team. She most was a digital editor on ABC News’ D.C. team. TRANSITIONS — Jeohn Salone Favors is now assistant secretary for counterterrorism, threat prevention and law enforcement policy at DHS. He most recently was senior counsel in the Justice Department’s National Security Division, and is a CIA, State and NSC alum. … Elizabeth Cannon is now the first executive director of the Office of Information and Communications Technology and Services in the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security. She most recently was senior corporate counsel for global trade at Microsoft, and is a DOJ alum. … Ari Gerstle is now a senior adviser at Cornerstone Research. He previously was assistant chief of the Economic Regulatory Section in DOJ’s Antitrust Division. … … The Consumer Product Safety Commission is elevating Austin Schlick to become the agency’s new executive director. He previously was general counsel, where he’ll be succeeded by Jessica Rich. She previously was of counsel and senior policy adviser for consumer protection at Kelley Drye & Warren, and is an FTC alum. … Andrea Porwoll is joining Bullpen Strategy Group as VP in the comms practice. She most recently was comms director for former Speaker Kevin McCarthy. … Joe Van Wye is now senior legislative strategist at P Street. He previously was policy and outreach director at Farm Action. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: Friday’s Playbook PM misstated Christian Hollowell’s gender. She is a woman.
| | | | A message from Electronic Payments Coalition: CREDIT UNIONS & COMMUNITY BANKS IN All 50 STATES OPPOSE THE DURBIN-MARSHALL CREDIT CARD BILL: The Durbin-Marshall credit card bill would create new government mandates on credit cards that would put consumer data and access to credit at risk. The bill would benefit corporate mega-stores, like Walmart and Target, at the expense of Main Street and the 140 million Americans who rely on credit unions and community banks. The threat of Durbin-Marshall to small financial institutions is so clear that 10,000+ credit unions and community banks in America are opposed to the bill. They also see through the so-called “carve out” for smaller banks which is a hoax to try and buy their support. Their message to Congress is simple: on behalf of credit unions and community banks in all 50 states, commit to actively opposing the Durbin-Marshall credit card bill. Click here to learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our politics and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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