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By PHELIM KINE
with STUART LAU
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Hi, China Watchers. Today we examine what Nauru's diplomatic defection from Taiwan to Beijing says about President Joe Biden's outreach to Pacific island countries, break news on a congressional push for corporate accountability on potential "foreign intelligence threats" at U.S. ports and talk to a filmmaker who probes Taiwan's identity as "The Island In-Between." And we profile a book that argues that Beijing has successfully hoodwinked much of the international community into accepting a false narrative of Taiwan as "a renegade province of China."
Let's get to it. — Phelim
Beijing's Pacific island onslaught bests Biden's regional outreach
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While China received a rebuke in Taiwan's elections last week, the island country of Nauru delivered Beijing a win on Monday by switching its diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China.
That move reduced the number of countries with formal ties to the self-governing island to 12 and became the latest success in Beijing's decades-long effort to diplomatically strangulate Taiwan. Nauru's defection also marked a setback in the Biden administration two-year campaign to rally Pacific Island countries behind what President Joe Biden calls a "rules-based international order" aimed to offset Beijing's growing economic, diplomatic and military footprint in the Indo-Pacific.
"The PRC gets a real win-win out of this — they get a switch in recognition, they will have a much deeper relationship with Nauru and probably establish an embassy there, which runs counter to what we're trying to do which is be the partner of choice with the Pacific Island community," said John T. Hennessey-Niland, former U.S. ambassador to Palau and now a professor at the Bush School of Government and Public Service at Texas A&M University.
Pacific Island Forum fallout. Nauru's diplomatic recognition of China has longer-term regional implications. Former president of Nauru, Baron Waqa, became the secretary-general of the Pacific Island Forum, the regional grouping of Pacific island countries, in November. That boosts the now Beijing-leaning Nauru's influence in the Forum. "Nauru is in a really pivotal position in terms of the regional politics and policy direction," said Patricia O'Brien, a Pacific Islands expert at Georgetown University. Waqa may well use his role as the forum's top diplomat in "steering things toward China," O'Brien said.
Nauru's diplomatic defection from Taipei to China comes despite Biden administration efforts to deepen ties with the region — which include a commitment of $810 million in development assistance in 2022 for distribution across Pacific Island countries. The Biden administration also opened new embassies in the Solomon Islands and Tonga and has increased Coast Guard deployments.
Neither the White House nor State responded to requests for comment on the implications of Nauru's decision on the administration's regional engagement efforts. Nauru's decision to switch diplomatic recognition to Nauru is "disappointing," State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a statement on Monday.
Could more have been done? The Trump administration explored the possibility of strategic agreements linking Nauru, Tuvalu and Kiribati with the U.S. modeled on similar deals with Palau, Micronesia and Marshall Islands. The intent was to make it easier for those three countries "to resist Chinese coercion," said Alexander Gray, former chief of staff of the National Security Council in the Trump administration who was part of those discussions. "We had pretty advanced conversations with the Aussies and Kiwis about that, and then the clock kind of just ran out on us," Gray said.
The Biden administration failed to follow-up on those conversations. Biden's transition team ignored recommendations to "quickly negotiate enduring partnerships with all of the Micronesian states and Tuvalu … [and] forge stronger strategic partnerships with the other Pacific Island countries through bilateral and multilateral channels," said Michael Walsh, Asia-Pacific security affairs subcommittee chair on the Biden defense working group during the 2020 presidential election. Biden's transition team viewed that "as too radical — they wanted to maintain the status quo … but maintaining the status quo is exactly why we are now in this mess" with Nauru, Walsh said.
The White House pushed back on Walsh's assertions. "Over the course of the administration, we have deepened collaboration with Pacific Island nations at every turn, including hosting two first-of-their kind leader-level summits at the White House with Pacific island leaders," said a National Security Council spokesperson granted anonymity because they weren't authorized to speak on the record said in response to Walsh's assertions. The State Department didn't respond to a request for comment.
Money talks, losers walk. The Taiwanese government argued that Beijing won over Nauru with "enticements" after Taipei declined the island country's repeated demands for "massive amounts of economic assistance from Taiwan" and unfavorable comparison of "Taiwan's aid proposals with those of China," Taiwan's Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Monday.
Dollar diplomacy denial. Nauru's embassy in Washington didn't respond to a request for comment. But Beijing denied that it had purchased Nauru's diplomatic recognition. "Those who see 'dollar diplomacy' as a go-to tool need to understand that there are things that money cannot buy," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, it's unclear if Nauru gave the U.S. a heads-up on its move to switch diplomatic ties, as the Australian Broadcasting Corporation reports it did for Australia. When asked if the U.S. was informed ahead of time, the State Department pointed back to its Monday statement, which did not provide those details. The White House didn't respond to a request for comment on whether it was informed.
TRANSLATING WASHINGTON
— FIRST IN CHINA WATCHER: HOUSE COMMITTEES DEMAND ANSWERS FROM ABB: The chairs of two House committees and two subcommittees want the Swedish-Swiss multinational firm ABB Ltd., which produces automation technologies, to provide details of its ties to a Chinese state-owned firm.
The committees want to probe potential "cybersecurity risks, foreign intelligence threats, and supply chain vulnerabilities at seaports in the United States … and information explaining its commercial relationship with Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries," according to a Tuesday letter to the company from Homeland Security Chair Mark Green (R-Tenn.), House Select Committee on China Chair Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), House Transportation and Maritime Security Chair Carlos Giménez (R-Fla.) and House Counterterrorism, Law Enforcement and Intelligence Chair August Pfluger (R-Texas).
The letter expresses frustration at "a breakdown in good faith negotiations" between ABB and the committees over what they call an "alarming security vulnerability created by the installation of ABB equipment and technology by ZPMC engineers in China onto U.S.-bound ship-to-shore cranes." The letter includes a request for ABB's U.S.-based senior representative, Michael Gray, "to testify at an upcoming public hearing in front of both Committees." ABB said it is reviewing the letter and is preparing a response. "We take this matter seriously," the company said in an emailed statement.
— BLINKEN BULLISH ON BEIJING'S ANTI-FENTANYL EFFORTS: Secretary of State Antony Blinken has praised Beijing's efforts to halt precursor chemical exports that fuel the U.S. opioid overdose epidemic. The Biden administration has seen Beijing "take action against dozens and dozens of companies. … We've seen genuine positive affirmative action by China on a question of arguably the greatest importance to the health of Americans," Blinken said in an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Wednesday.
China's leader Xi Jinping agreed to resume counternarcotics cooperation during a meeting with President Biden in San Francisco in November. Chinese firms export chemicals essential for fentanyl production to Mexico, where cartels process them into synthetic opioids that end up on the streets of U.S. cities. Blinken didn't mention that more than two months after the two leaders agreed to create a working group on counternarcotics cooperation, that effort remains at the discussion phase.
— CHINA'S AMBASSADOR WARNS OF NEW 'MCCARTHYISM': China's Ambassador to the U.S. Xie Feng has warned that Biden administration efforts to insulate the U.S. from Beijing's potential threat to national security could derail efforts to stabilize bilateral ties. That requires the U.S. to "stay vigilant against a new 'Cold War', the resurgence of McCarthyism and the repetition of the Oppenheimer-era tragedy," Xie said in a speech on Tuesday, in reference to false accusations that J.Robert Oppenheimer, father of the U.S. atomic bomb, had been a Soviet spy. Xie called out what he said were U.S. moves to "overstretch the concept of national security," an implicit reference to restrictions on exports of high technology semiconductors and other items that could benefit China's military industrial complex.
TRANSLATING EUROPE
— PREMIER ASKS EU TO RELAX TECH BAN: China's No. 2 leader Li Qiang called Tuesday for European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to be lenient as the EU mulls further economic security measures, primarily against China. In a meeting on the margins of the World Economic Forum , the Chinese premier said that Beijing "hopes the EU will relax export restrictions on high-tech products to China." The EU is planning to unveil an economic security strategy later this month, with additional export restrictions to prevent tech leakage that could enrich China's civil-military development. In an attempt to lure the EU, Li added: "China stands ready to import more products from the EU that align with market demand."
EU calls for fair play: Von der Leyen said on X that the EU and China "need to move to action on rebalancing our trade and avoid distortive policies," adding that EU companies "deserve a real level playing field." Read Jamil Anderlini and Claudia Chiappa's report on Li and von der Leyen's dueling speeches at Davos.
Visa-freebies everywhere he goes: As Li traveled from Switzerland to Ireland, China announced visa-free schemes for short-term travelers from the two countries, mirroring similar moves already granted to five European countries: France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain. The move "shows that China desperately wants the businessmen to return, while using it as a tool to win EU countries' goodwill," according to an EU diplomat granted anonymity to speak freely of the interaction with Beijing on the visa issues.
—TAIWAN ENVOY CALLS FOR RETHINK OF EU TRADE PACT: Taiwan is pressing the European Union to consider a new pact on trade, after Brussels all but ruled out an investment deal with Taipei out of fear of upsetting China.
The incoming government of William Lai, who won the presidential election on Saturday, looks set to try to persuade the EU to instead explore a "framework" covering tech, green energy and investments, according to five Taiwanese and European officials with knowledge of the discussions. "If we look at the economic interactions between the EU and Taiwan, it is already covering many areas that are outside the scope of a traditional investment agreement," Taiwan's new representative to the European Union, Roy Chun Lee, said in an interview with POLITICO on Wednesday.
HOT FROM THE CHINA WATCHERSPHERE
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— BEIJING BARKS AT MANILA'S REEF MILITARIZATION: Beijing pushed back on Philippine military plans to construct facilities to support troop deployments on reefs and islands and to purchase more planes and ships to address months of Chinese Coast Guard harassment of Philippine vessels in Manila's waters in the South China Sea. "China has indisputable sovereignty … We firmly oppose relevant countries' illegal construction on the islands and reefs they have illegally occupied," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Tuesday in response to that decision.
More bad news for Beijing: Manila hopes to ink a defense cooperation deal with Tokyo by end-March that will allow the two countries to station troops on each other's soil, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said on Tuesday, per Nikkei Asia.
— CANADA ISSUES CHINESE ENTITY FUNDING BLACKLIST: The Canadian government published a list of 86 Chinese educational and research entities that Ottawa will now bar from federal funding. Those on the blacklist — which includes China's Academy of Military Science, Tianjin University and the Rocket Force Command College —"pose the highest risk to Canada's national security due to their direct, or indirect connections with military, national defence, and state security entities," the Canadian government said in a statement on Tuesday. The funding ban reflects "ideological bias and Cold-War mentality," Mao at the Chinese Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday.
TRANSLATING TAIWAN
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S. Leo Chiang |
—DECODING 'THE ISLAND IN BETWEEN': The film "The Island in Between" has made the preliminary nominations shortlist for Best Documentary Short in the upcoming Academy Awards. It's a portrait of the complexities and contradictions of Taiwan's relationship with both China and the U.S. In it, Taiwanese-American director S. Leo Chiang trains his lens on Kinmen, a Taiwan-controlled potential flashpoint for a future conflict with Beijing, that lies just 17 miles from the Chinese coast, to tell a wider tale about the self-governing island and its people.
"It was very much my intention to imply that 'The Island in Between' is Taiwan," Chiang said in an interview with China Watcher. "If you go to Kinmen, you see the history and the potential future manifest themselves in these military artifacts, in the constant reminder that China’s right there."
The film blends Cold War-era footage of Taiwan under the authoritarian rules of the Kuomintang, or Nationalist Party,with shots of modern, democratic Taiwan to underscore the seismic political and social changes that have swept the island in recent decades.
Today, U.S. citizens with familial ties to the island "are coming out of the closet as Taiwanese Americans instead of Chinese Americans — people are relating to the idea of being Taiwanese very differently now compared to 10, 20, or 30 years ago." Chiang said.
The film makes no mention of the ongoing congressional impasse on additional funding to support Ukraine's efforts to resist Russian aggression. But it raises questions in Chiang's mind about the durability of the current "milestone bipartisan support" for Taiwan on Capitol Hill.
"Everybody loved Ukraine up to a year ago… I’m concerned and skeptical of the politicization of Ukraine, and what that means for Taiwan from the D.C. perspective," Chiang said.
HEADLINES
The Diplomat: Nauru's geopolitical clout
Wall Street Journal: Chinese lab mapped deadly coronavirus two weeks before Beijing told the world, documents show
South China Morning Post: 'Strangers started telling me to go home': why foreigners who endured China's Covid lockdowns now say they've had enough
ONE BOOK, THREE QUESTIONS
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Jacques-Nicolas Bellin, "L'Isle Formose et Partie des Costes de la Chine Suivant les Cartes et les Observations les plus récentes et entre autres des RR.PP. Jesuites," in: Antoine François |
The Book: The State of Taiwan: From International Justice to Geopolitics
The Author: Werner Somers is a lawyer-linguist at the European Union's Court of Justice.
What is the most important takeaway from your book?
Despite the PRC's claim that Taiwan is an integral part of China's territory, the Chinese state never regained sovereignty over Taiwan after it lost the island to Japan as a result of the entry into force of the Treaty of Shimonoseki in 1895.
What was the most surprising thing you learned while writing this book?
How easily the Chinese narrative of Taiwan being a renegade province of China has been adopted by the rest of the world. While Taiwan satisfies all the international legal criteria for statehood, the PRC frames the Taiwan question as a purely domestic matter. Therefore, it refuses to rule out the use of force as a means of reunification. At the very least, democratic states should stop making statements that deny or imply denying Taiwan's statehood. This means, for instance, no longer talking of being opposed to Taiwanese independence or to the formula "One China, one Taiwan."
What does your book tell us of the prospects for peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait under the protections of international law given the result of the island's Jan. 13 presidential election?
As the ruling Democratic Progressive Party stresses Taiwan's independence, the PRC could invoke its 2005 Anti-Secession Law, which stipulates that China will use force if the possibilities for achieving peaceful reunification have been "completely exhausted." So it is important that democratic states adopt a coherent deterrence strategy based on the acknowledgement that Taiwan is a sovereign state entitled to individual and collective self-defense under the Charter of the United Nations.
Got a book to recommend? Tell me about it at pkine@politico.com.
Thanks to: Heidi Vogt, and digital producers Tara Gnewikow and Fiona Lally. Do you have tips? Chinese-language stories we might have missed? Would you like to contribute to China Watcher or comment on this week’s items? Email us at pkine@politico.com slau@politico.eu
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