Netanyahu cautious of a different battle at home

From the SitRoom to the E-Ring, the inside scoop on defense, national security and foreign policy.

Jan 02, 2024 View in browser   By Alexander Ward and Matt Berg Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (center) has said he won’t step down whenever the war ends. | Pool Photo by Menahem Kahana Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt With help from Nahal Toosi, Doug Palmer, Lara Seligman and Daniel Lippman Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU appears unlikely to start a political war over a Supreme Court decision on a judicial matter that stirred unrest before the Gaza war, fearing it could distract from his nation’s shifting fight against Hamas. Israel’s highest court just overturned a July law that restricted the panel’s powers, an objective Netanyahu’s far-right government had pursued while it sparked mass protests and a military crisis. Differences were set aside after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on Israel, embodied by Israel’s three-man War Cabinet featuring Netanyahu and two opponents of the legal changes. But Monday’s ruling threatens to disrupt the political truce and roil Israeli society once again. It could spell trouble for Bibi, who is already weak after failing to stop Hamas from killing 1,200 people and taking 240 hostages. President JOE BIDEN, his aides and analysts assess that the Israeli leader’s days in power are numbered, though Netanyahu has said he won’t step down whenever the war ends. “The war is essential to Bibi’s political survival in the short term, so we can expect to see him continue with the military offensive, even at the risk of a public rift with the Biden administration,” said GUY ZIV, a professor of Israeli politics at American University. Attention to the war will ensure there’s no tussle over the judicial decision, at least for now. One key reason is the War Cabinet isn’t itching for political fisticuffs. “The verdict must be respected,” BENNY GANTZ, a War Cabinet member who is also a top Netanyahu rival, wrote yesterday on X. “These are not days for political arguments, there are no winners and losers today. Today we have only one common goal — to win the war, together.” And any diversion could threaten the fragile status quo at home and the fight in Gaza, from which Israel has already started to withdraw about five brigades. Plans for what comes after Hamas’ defeat, if it happens, are in the works, and any implementation would be tenuous at best. NBC News reports that Israel’s current plan is to empower local Palestinian clans — and not the Palestinian Authority — to take care of civilian needs when the war ends. Analysts say Israel is transitioning to a less intense campaign focused on high-value targets, which could bring an end to the widespread bombings and ground operations that have reportedly killed nearly 22,000 Palestinians and displaced another 1.9 million in Gaza. Such military transitions are tricky and rife with complications. DAVID MAKOVSKY, an Israel expert at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said he can’t imagine the previously seen large protests on the judicial issue will arise again while the war rages and hostages remain captive. Netanyahu and his team will try to steer clear of the issue to ensure that remains true. “I don’t think any government will pursue it in such a ham-fisted way. War ensures it will be submerged for now,” Makovsky said. “There is no appetite to revive the deep-seated tensions.” A message from Lockheed Martin: PAC-3 MSE: Enabling a Hardened Defense against Maritime Threats Lockheed Martin is developing advanced IAMD capabilities to give sailors more options using existing capabilities. Integrating PAC-3 MSE into the Aegis Weapon System would deliver an advanced, combat-proven IAMD capability to U.S. Sailors. Learn more.   The Inbox BLINKEN TO MIDDLE EAST: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN plans to travel to the Middle East later this week for several days, our own NAHAL TOOSI writes in, confirming an Axios report. The exact timing and details of the trip are still being worked out and could change, according to a U.S. official familiar with the planning, but for now, Blinken is supposed to meet with the top leaders in Israel, Egypt, the West Bank, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. STRIKE IN LEBANON: A suspected Israeli drone struck a Hamas office building in Beirut’s suburbs today, killing four people, officials with Hamas and the Hezbollah militant group said. Top Hamas official SALEH AROURI, a long-time Israeli target and one of the founders of the group’s militant wing, was killed, The Associated Press reports. Arouri was also among the Hamas leaders closest to Iran, and spent time in Beirut serving as an ambassador of sorts between Hamas and Hezbollah, The New York Times’ BEN HUBBARD reports. “Israel, which issued a deck of playing cards to soldiers featuring the faces of Hamas officials to help them identify the group’s leaders, made Mr. al-Arouri the joker,” the NYT writes. The strike in Lebanon comes amid U.S. efforts to contain the Israel-Hamas war, but today’s strike suggests Israel is actively pursuing targets outside of the Gaza Strip. The Pentagon has deployed forces to help protect Israel, announcing yesterday that the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier strike group will head home after months of extra duty. It’ll be replaced by the USS Bataan amphibious assault ship and its accompanying warships, the USS Mesa Verde and the USS Carter Hall, which are already in the region. The Israel-Hamas war has also raised concerns among European officials about the region’s long-term security. “Even if there would be a cease-fire, lasting or not, you notice that there’s a flammability,” Belgium’s Interior Minister ANNELIES VERLINDEN told our own PIETER HAECK. "Those traumas, those feelings are so deep, that this of course can go on for a long time.” BIBI’S U.N. PLAN: Israel’s leaders are also gearing up for a fight on the world stage, pledging to defend against genocide accusations before the United Nations’ top court next week. On Friday, South Africa laid out the case at the International Court of Justice, saying the high death toll, widespread destruction and dire humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip that has resulted from Israel’s military campaign constitutes genocide under international law, The Associated Press’ WAFAA SHURAFA, BASSEM MROUE and TIA GOLDENBERG report. It’s rare for Israel to engage with the United Nations, which it often denounces as being biased against the country. The shift, however, shows that Israel is concerned about the potential damage to its reputation. Netanyahu wants Harvard law professor ALAN DERSHOWITZ, DONALD TRUMP’s former lawyer, to represent Israel, Israeli officials told Axios’ BARAK RAVID. ‘SEETHING’ PUTIN: Russia battered Kyiv and Kharkiv with missiles and drones overnight, killing at least four people and injuring 92 more, our own CLAUDIA CHIAPPA reports. Moscow hit the Ukrainian capital with a combination of Iranian-made Shahed drones and “waves” of missiles for almost six hours, according to Ukraine’s military. The majority of strikes in recent days have targeted civilian infrastructure, Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said in a statement. As a result, Ukraine may strike inside Russia soon. “With each new attack, Russia increasingly legalizes Ukraine's retaliatory strikes against Russian air bases and naval bases, ammunition depots, defense enterprises and enemy oil bases,” according to a document, sent to Ukrainian government officials by Kyiv’s Center for Strategic Communication and Information Security today, obtained by NatSec Daily. Moscow’s overnight attacks came a day after Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN said he was “seething” over strikes on the Russian city of Belgorod on Saturday, which the Kremlin blamed on Kyiv. Russian officials said at least 25 people were killed and more than 100 wounded in the airstrikes on Belgorod. NOT REUNITED AND IT FEELS SO GOOD: North Korea no longer seeks reunification with South Korea, KIM JONG UN announced via state-run media Monday. The stark message from the North Korean dictator shifts his country’s policy, which has long sought to reunify and reconcile with its southern neighbor following the Korean War that ended in an armistice. “It’s time for us to acknowledge the reality and clarify our relationship with the South,” he said during a year-end announcement. “I believe that it is a mistake that we must no longer make to deal with the people who declare us as ‘the main enemy’ and seek only opportunities for ‘[our] regime collapse’ and ‘unification by absorption’ by collaborating for reconciliation and unification.” Kim’s stance could embolden right-wing figures in South Korea who disagree with reconciliation and reunification, and who instead push for a strengthening of Seoul’s military capabilities to deter a restart of the war with North Korea. YOON SUK YEOL, South Korea’s conservative president, has flirted with the idea of developing a nuclear weapon. “This will mark a critical milestone on the Korean Peninsula where extending the olive branch by future South Korean administrations will be vehemently rejected by North Korea,” nuclear expert HOO CHIEW-PING told CNN yesterday. IT’S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1. 2024 HALEY SLAMS DESANTIS ON CHINA: Former U.N. Ambassador NIKKI HALEY launched an ad campaign today to claim one of her top political opponents is friendly with China. The ad, titled “Partner,” blasts Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS for allowing a U.S.-sanctioned, China-owned company to expand near a naval base in his state and chairing Enterprise Florida, a public-private organization that advocated for closer business ties between the state and China. The pro-Haley ad asserts that DeSantis was “trying to court China.” It’s unclear whether the message will resonate. If there’s one thing primary followers know about DeSantis’ foreign policy, it’s that he is particularly tough on China. Among other things, he supports revoking China’s normal trade relations status, which would allow the U.S. to reset tariffs on Chinese goods at a higher level than it imposes on other countries. That would violate global trade rules and require congressional approval. However, Trump raised duties on more than $300 billion worth of Chinese goods when he was president, so U.S.-China trade relations are already not "normal." Haley and DeSantis are duking it out for a second-place finish in Iowa, aiming to establish themselves as the only alternative to far-away frontrunner Trump. Read: The global elections Washington should be watching in 2024 by our own ERIC BAZAIL-EIMIL Keystrokes CHIP ON BIDEN’S SHOULDER: The Biden administration pressured a Dutch chip manufacturer to cancel shipments of some of its machines to Beijing weeks before export bans on the equipment went into effect, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg News’ CAGAN KOC and JENNIFER JACOBS. ASML Holding NV had licenses to ship a trio of high-end deep ultraviolet lithography machines to China until January, when new Dutch export restrictions on the tech take effect. But U.S. officials asked the company to immediately stop pre-scheduled shipments of some machines. National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN raised the matter with Dutch officials late last year, the people said, but the government told the U.S. to contact ASML directly. It’s unclear how many devices, which can cost tens of millions of dollars each, were involved in the canceled shipments. The Complex YOU SHALL NOT PASS: Ankara said the United Kingdom won’t be allowed to send a pair of minehunter ships, intended for Ukraine’s military use, to transit its waters en route to the Black Sea, our own ANNABELLE DICKSON reports. It would violate an international pact regarding passage of the straits during wartime, Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN’s office said in a statement. Turkey, a NATO member, informed allies that it won’t allow the use of its Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits while the war continues. The policy is intended to prevent escalation with Russia in the Black Sea, according to the president’s office. Ankara has maintained good relations with both the Kremlin and Kyiv throughout the war.     On the Hill CALL TO END ISRAEL FUNDING: Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) called on lawmakers to reject $10.1 billion in unconditional military aid being considered for Israel’s fight in Gaza. The supplemental funding bill would provide assistance “for the right-wing Netanyahu government to continue its brutal war against the Palestinian people,” Sanders said in a statement today. “Congress must reject that funding. The taxpayers of the United States must no longer be complicit in destroying the lives of innocent men, women, and children in Gaza.” It’s the latest call from the Vermont progressive, who has been at the forefront of lawmakers calling for conditions to be placed on U.S. aid to Israel. CODEL TO MIDDLE EAST: A bipartisan group of Senate Intelligence Committee members is headed to the Middle East tonight, Sen. KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND (D-N.Y.) told reporters today. The lawmakers will travel to Israel, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, she said, and noted that the group will meet with Netanyahu. “The New York Democrat said she has two goals for the trip: Find out how much of a threat Hamas still is and what it will take to eventually end the war started by the Oct. 7 attack on Israel. She said ‘at least four colleagues’ will be joining her and it will be a bipartisan group, with plans to leave on Tuesday evening and return on Monday as Senate session resumes,” our own BURGESS EVERETT reports. Lawmakers have been heading to the Middle East because “we are talking to our allies and partners about what that path to peace would look like, and what the next few months holds,” Gillibrand said. The CODEL comes as Israel is shifting course in the war and the whereabouts of some hostages remain unknown. The meeting with Netanyahu will also provide an opportunity for lawmakers to show support for Israel’s operation while emphasizing the need to reduce civilian harm as well as coordinate with allies. Broadsides MOVES AGAINST MOSSAD: Turkish authorities detained 33 people accused of spying from Israel’s intelligence service and targeting foreigners living in the country, Interior Minister ALI YERLIKAYA said today. Turkish police raided 57 addresses in eight provinces in an investigation dubbed Operation MOLE, Yerlikaya tweeted. Last month, Ankara warned of “serious consequences” if Israel tries to track down Hamas militants outside of Palestinian territories. Transitions — JOHN VERRICO stepped down as the chief of media and community relations for the Department of Homeland Security’s science and technology directorate, a post he held for nearly 16 years. DEEPAK SAINI, who was the directorate’s deputy chief of media relations, took over the role. — The Brunswick Group has made two hires: ALEXANDER KAZAN as partner and geopolitical global co-lead and SAMANTHA VINOGRAD as partner and geopolitical lead. Kazan was last at the Eurasia Group and Vinograd at DHS. What to Read — FOUAD SINIORA and BASEM SHABB, The Washington Post: The Arab world is extending a hand to Israel. Will it reciprocate? — IVO DAALDER, POLITICO: Biden’s foreign policy headache in 2024 — RUTI MUNDER, The New York Times: My second trip to Gaza was as a hostage. I will never return. Tomorrow Today — Washington Post Live, 11 a.m.: Israel-Gaza war and future of the region with former State Department diplomat AARON DAVID MILLER Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who seethes at the idea of working with us. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is a bundle of joy. A message from Lockheed Martin: PAC-3 MSE: Enabling a Hardened Defense against Maritime Threats To succeed in a multi-domain environment, sailors need more advanced options to stay ahead of evolving threats. Learn more.     Follow us on Twitter Alex Ward @alexbward   Follow us

To change your alert settings, please log in at https://www.politico.com/_login?base=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com/settings This email was sent to rouf@idiot.cloudns.cc by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA Unsubscribe | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service