The big leak in Trump and Haley’s oil promises

Presented by The American Petroleum Institute (API): Your guide to the political forces shaping the energy transformation

Jan 23, 2024 View in browser   By Christian Robles Presented by Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley and former President Donald Trump are pictured. | AFP via Getty Images The two remaining Republican presidential candidates have repeatedly promised to expand U.S. oil production — but they would be hard-pressed to meet that pledge, writes Shelby Webb. Presidents have little impact on day-to-day production in the near term, analysts and industry officials told Shelby before former President Donald Trump and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley face off in tonight’s New Hampshire primary. “It’s not zero, but it’s pretty close,” said Ryan Kellogg, a former BP engineer and economic analyst who’s now a professor at the University of Chicago’s Harris School of Public Policy. Only 11 percent of oil and 9 percent of natural gas produced onshore in the U.S. is on federal land. U.S. oil production hit a record high last year, even though President Joe Biden has limited federal oil lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico and curbed oil and gas exploration in much of Alaska. Market forces, namely volatile global oil prices and innovation by the oil industry, have greater influence on industry output than the White House, the analysts say. When global oil and gas prices are high, American companies increase output to financially benefit, Kellogg said. This year, global oil demand is expected to keep rising, bringing prices and production up. Meanwhile, oil companies continue to innovate, developing technology that better identifies where oil fractures occur and where to drill. However, a Republican president determined to “drill, drill, drill” — to quote Trump — wouldn’t be inconsequential in the long term. Analysts say a president’s oil policies can influence future industry developments. “As far as new production goes, presidential impacts can be quite significant over time — but emphasis on the time,” said Kevin Book, managing director of ClearView Energy Partners. He said opening federal land to oil and gas leasing can affect output five to 10 years down the line. So far, Trump and Haley have been vague about which Biden environmental policies they would dial back. They could target an upcoming fee on methane emitted from oil and gas infrastructure, rules to prevent methane leaks, or a slowdown in federal oil lease sales. Such policy changes would hardly affect prices at the gas pump. But they could put the U.S. at odds with international efforts to combat climate change, said Jason Rylander, senior adviser for the Center for Biological Diversity Action Fund. “We’re coming out of [the U.N.’s annual climate conference] with an international commitment to begin a phase-out from fossil fuels,” he said. “It’s appalling our political leaders would be actively campaigning on expansion of new oil and gas development.”   It's Tuesday — thank you for tuning in to POLITICO's Power Switch. I'm your host, Christian Robles. Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to crobles@eenews.net.   YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics.      Listen to today’s POLITICO Energy podcast Today in POLITICO Energy’s podcast: Ben Lefebvre breaks down how the Biden administration's rethinking of its liquefied natural gas export approval process is rattling EU nations.   A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API): America's oil and natural gas anchor an all-energy approach, but greater energy security doesn't happen on its own. Since day one, the Biden administration has worked to limit future U.S. oil and natural gas production, cancel infrastructure projects, and expand regulatory barriers. Policy decisions today help ensure reliable, affordable energy for America's future. Together, let's urge policymakers to strengthen America's energy security.   Power Centers Brian Heywood (center) is funding an initiative to repeal Washington’s cap-and-trade law along with other Democratic policies. | Richter Frank-Jurgen/Flickr Washington cap-and-trade faces repeal Republican megadonor and hedge fund executive Brian Heywood has spent millions of dollars to persuade Washington voters to repeal the state’s cap-and-trade law, writes Adam Aton. The program has raised almost $2 billion since it began about a year ago. Now, thanks to Heywood, voters will decide in November whether to ditch the program — and bar the state from ever instituting another one. A repeal would upend the climate agenda of Washington Democratic Gov. Jay Inslee, with rippling effects in other states considering their own cap-and-trade systems. Heywood alleges that the program is responsible for the state's high gas prices, which climbed to a nationwide high for a brief moment this summer. But Democrats say swings in the global oil market dwarf the law’s impacts. Violators might be punished EPA is close to finalizing a scientific integrity policy, but watchdog organizations say it doesn't go far enough to shield the agency's work from political interference, writes Kevin Bogardus. The draft policy — circulated to employees this month — lacks clear rules to prevent the suppression of scientific information and ensure investigations of misconduct allegations, said Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility. It also doesn't specify penalties for violators. “If we don’t have a good scientific integrity policy that is enforceable, what the hell is the point?” said Kyla Bennett, PEER's science policy adviser. Coal executive to lead GOP presidential fundraising A coal executive will lead the Republican Party's efforts to raise money for its eventual presidential nominee, writes Timothy Cama. Alliance Resource Partners CEO Joe Craft and his wife, former United Nations Ambassador Kelly Craft, will co-chair the Republican National Committee’s Presidential Trust. Alliance is the largest coal producer in the eastern United States, and the Crafts are longtime, major Trump donors. "Preserving the American Dream for all and strengthening our nation’s security is dependent upon Republican victories in the fall," the Crafts said in a statement.   A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API):   In Other News Energy debt: Even though the federal Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program. served 7 million Americans last year, utility customers accrued record debt last year, said the National Energy Assistance Directors Association. Climate economists: Professional economists are increasingly researching the impact of climate change, investigating the impact of new and emerging policies.   A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API): The Biden administration has locked up federal lands and waters to energy development. They released the federally mandated offshore oil and natural gas leasing program about 500 days late – and included only three lease sales through 2029. In fact, this year, for the first time, there will be no offshore lease sales. Onshore, the situation isn’t much better. The administration initially suspended quarterly lease sales, even though they’re required by law. Officials announced last year that they were indefinitely blocking nearly half a million acres from energy development in Alaska – in a federal reserve created by Congress for petroleum development. This isn’t partisan. President Obama’s energy record wasn’t perfect, but his administration offered 96 onshore leases during his first three years in office, compared to just 18 in the Biden administration. To maintain America’s energy advantage going forward, policymakers must increase energy leasing and remove barriers to developing American energy.   Subscriber Zone A showcase of some of our best subscriber content. (Left to right) Myrtle Felton, Sharon Lavigne, Gail LeBoeuf and Rita Cooper, members of an environmental justice organization, conduct a livestream video in St. James Parish, Louisiana, in 2020. | Gerald Herbert/AP A Louisiana court reinstated air permits for a petrochemical plant in a majority Black community last Friday, expanding "Cancer Alley." A team of MIT researchers says they have found an alternative to making EV batteries with cobalt, a metal at the heart of congressional battles and federal investigations. Democratic candidates for California's vacant Senate seat traded jabs over fossil fuel donations and environmental records at a debate Monday night. That's it for today, folks! Thanks for reading.   SUBSCRIBE TO CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So we have something cool for you: A brand-new California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Subscribe now to California Climate to keep up with the changes.       Follow us on Twitter Arianna Skibell @ariannaskibell   Follow us

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