The over/under on a Cabinet shuffle

A daily look inside Canadian politics and power.

Jan 05, 2024 View in browser   By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Zi-Ann Lum Welcome to Ottawa Playbook and the first Friday of 2024. In today's edition: → Pundits vs. Magic 8 Ball on inflation, by-elections, and DONALD TRUMP. → Who’s up, who’s down. → Birthdays, fundraisers and a new face in the race in Durham. DRIVING THE DAY Seeing the world through 2024 glasses. | Peter K. Afriyie/AP CRYSTAL BALL TIME — Welcome to round two of Playbook's second annual test of Canada's top political pundits. We asked 10 questions about 2024. Thursday's newsletter considered election timing, JUSTIN TRUDEAU’s tenure as PM and the number of countries he'll visit, the odds of a pharmacare law by summer, and potential timing of the next budget. Today: the rest of the survey. This time next year, we'll crown the 2024 Playbook Prognosticator of the Year — and compare their smarts to our quasi-reliable Magic 8 Ball novelty toy (which scored well in 2023). Here's what the pundits say about the year ahead: — Will cost of living be the consensus top issue among pollsters at the end of the year? Three-quarters of our 30 correspondents answered in the affirmative. DAN ARNOLD, chief strategy officer at Pollara and the prime minister's former pollster, answered both yes and no: "Cost of living will be the pollster consensus top issue at the end of 2024 because of the way 'most important issue' is asked," he wrote. "But my gut feel is that the thing most on the mind of Canadians at the end of 2024 will be the looming second Trump presidency.” SEAN SPEER, The Hub's editor-at-large, also guesses we'll all be looking south: "The biggest political news in 2024 will be the U.S. presidential election. Everything else pales in comparison. I still think President JOE BIDEN has the advantage." → Magic 8 Ball: "As I see it." — How many ministers will be shuffled? The over/under is six. After a mammoth 2023 for Cabinet musical chairs, almost three-quarters took the "under" on this one. → Magic 8 Ball: We asked if fewer than six will shuffle. Prediction: "Outlook not so good." — How many by-elections will be held? The over/under is six. More than four in five pundits took the under here, too. Enterprise Canada's MITCH HEIMPEL showed his work: "Durham and St. Paul's start the year off fast, but most of the easy-to-call retirements happened last year. Provincial elections in 2024 (B.C. and Saskatchewan) don't create the circumstances for more this year." And don't forget the New Brunswick election. Speaking of the provinces, Crestview partner CHAD ROGERS predicts a rollercoaster year at Queen's Park and at Quebec's National Assembly, with reverberations on the Hill: "DOUG FORD retires in Ontario. Surprises in both Coalition Avenir Québec and Parti Libéral du Québec. A federal minister leaves for Quebec. PIERRE POILIEVRE recruits star provincial ministers." → Magic 8 Ball: We asked if more than six will be held. Prediction: "Outlook good." Former President Donald Trump speaks in Clinton Township, Mich., Wednesday, Sept. 27, 2023. | Mike Mulholland/AP — Will DONALD TRUMP win Michigan in November? Our prognosticators were split on this question, with 53.3 percent picking Biden and 46.7 percent going with Trump. Commentator RAHIM MOHAMED says he anticipates Muslim voters will tilt Trump, despite the former president's deeply unpopular travel ban applied to Muslim-majority nations: "The community is already starting to flex its muscles, notably sweeping civic elections in the Detroit enclave of Hamtramck last year. Muslim voters in Michigan have historically gone Democrat, but many have become alienated from the party over cultural issues (notably LGBT content in schools) and, more recently, President Biden's backing of Israel in its war with Hamas." Heimpel argued for Biden: "His pro-Israel stance is hurting him in parts of Michigan like Dearborn County. That said, Gov. GRETCHEN WHITMER has transformed the Michigan Democratic Party from where it was when Trump carried the state in 2016. Add a dash of lower interest rates to the mix, Biden wins Michigan." Last year's co-Prognosticator of the Year, KARAMVEER LALH, thinks Trump can win it all even with a structural disadvantage: "Wild prediction: Trump will win the election despite being barred from appearing on the ballot in at least one state." → Magic 8 Ball: "It is certain." — Will a Canadian team win the Stanley Cup? Only a handful have faith that a squad north of the border will raise the cup this spring. The brave quintet: MIKE SOLBERG, CAM HOLMSTROM, Speer, JANICE NICHOLSON and LISA KIRBIE. → Magic 8 Ball: "Without a doubt." — Elsewhere in predictions: DAKOTA KOCHIE, director of government and external relations at the Nuclear Waste Management Organization, has his eye on a sensitive issue for a Liberal government tempered by the courts — and an influential Indigenous advocacy group where he was once a chief of staff: "I’m watching when the new impact assessment bill will be tabled and passed. There is a lot of regulatory uncertainty currently, so quick passage helps. I’m also predicting that the new Assembly of First Nations national chief, CINDY WOODHOUSE, is going to build up public trust again in the AFN and improve the organization’s ability to advocate for change." WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN UP: Attention to Conservative MP LESLYN LEWIS’ petition, launched in October, proposing Canada withdraw from the United Nations “and all of its subsidiary organizations, including WHO.” DOWN: PMO which has to, again, wrestle down controversy over another Trudeau family holiday in Jamaica. Journalist GLEN MCGREGOR is on it for the National Post. MEDIA ROOM — The Globe's CHRIS HANNAY reports: Ottawa confirms a third of Accenture employees working on CEBA are based in Brazil. — La Presse columnist FRANCIS VAILLES stretched some creative writing muscles to pen a fictional letter to Canadians, post-dated to Aug. 30, 2024, as PIERRE POILIEVRE about the carbon tax. — SUPRIYA DWIVEDI writes in Chatelaine that Canadian politics is still unsafe for female politicians. “I have had this interview probably 150 times in 12 years,” said Tory MP MICHELLE REMPEL GARNER, “... shit doesn’t change.” — A proposed class-action lawsuit is seeking C$500 million in damages and reform to a system that migrant farmworkers say incentivizes employers to abuse the rights of workers. The Tyee’s ZAK VESCERA has the story. — For CBC News, EMMA TRANTER obtained emails to piece together how plans for a Nunavut fuel tank farm fell apart. — Le Devoir’s BORIS PROULX confirms Canada is cooperating with a Japanese investigation into a fatal crash at Tokyo’s Haneda airport involving a Canadian-made plane. PROZONE If you’re a subscriber, don’t miss our latest policy newsletter: Year of elections. In other news for Pro subscribers:  — Uranium mines ramp up amid Hill anxiety about Russian fuel. — Biden administration to award $162 million for expanding Microchip fabs. — Second Biden official resigns over Israel-Hamas war concerns. — Russia-China partnership prompts new U.S. Arctic strategy. — Shell presses FERC in fight over Louisiana LNG terminal. PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: Former deputy PM JOHN MANLEY celebrates his 74th trip around the sun. Celebrating Saturday: Retired senator NANCY RUTH and former NDP MP PETER STOFFER are birthday twins. Celebrating Sunday: Senate Speaker RAYMONDE GAGNÉ and former MP Tory MP PETER BRAID. Send birthdays to ottawaplaybook@politico.com . Spotted: A pair of January fundraisers on PIERRE POILIEVRE's schedule. The Tory leader will attend a Jan. 11 reception at the Toronto office of Bennett Jones, where longtime political ally JOHN BAIRD is a senior adviser. On Jan. 12, Poilievre plans to attend an event at Piazza De Nardi, a food-and-wine grocer in Winnipeg. The De Nardis hosted a Poilievre fundraiser at their private residence on the same day in 2023. Saskatchewan Premier SCOTT MOE paying tribute to his Deputy Premier and Finance Minister DONNA HARPAUER for her career milestone in becoming “the longest-serving female cabinet minister ever in Canada at either the federal or provincial level.” Movers and shakers: The Liberal Party named ROBERT ROCK as a candidate for the upcoming by-election in Durham, Ont. Rock will face off against Conservative hopeful JAMIL JIVANI, a rising star on the Canadian right — and the favorite in the riding formerly held by ERIN O'TOOLE. The prime minister must announce the date of the election no later than Jan. 30. The last possible voting day is Monday, March 18. Media mentions: North America’s first Black female newspaper publisher MARY ANN SHADD will be honored by Canada Post with her own stamp this year. In memoriam: Former ethics commissioner MARY DAWSON has died. “We’re living now in the age of the Charter, and Mary Dawson was instrumental in that,” former justice minister Irwin Cotler told the Ottawa Citizen. “She had an abiding interest in the public good, and she brought a substantive expertise to her work.” On the Hill → Find House committees here. → Keep track of Senate committees here. The House of Commons is back Jan. 29; the Senate returns Feb. 6. Trivia Thursday’s answer: That eyewitness who recalled sounds of “crashing throughout the mountain” was describing the 1998 Ice Storm. Props to JOSEPH CHAMOUN, MARCEL MARCOTTE, BOB GORDON, GEORGE SCHOENHOFER, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, PATRICK DION, LAURA JARVIS, JIM CAMPBELL and JOSEPH CHAMOUN. Today’s question: In July 2007, which premier had a pie thrown at them that was ultimately thwarted as a member of their security detail “took a pie for the premier”? Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.   Follow us on Twitter Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey Sue Allan @susan_allan Maura Forrest @MauraForrest Kyle Duggan @Kyle_Duggan Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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