The Squad under siege

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Jan 04, 2024 View in browser   By Calder McHugh Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) speaks on the phone outside the U.S. Capitol on Nov. 14, 2023. | Stefani Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images FAMILY FIGHT — Today, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) became the latest Democrat to demand that the White House send no further aid to Israel without conditions, arguing “[the] right-wing government [in Israel has] demonstrated an appalling disregard for human lives.” Warren’s comments come a day after Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) called for an end to aid to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. The cracks in the Democratic coalition over the issue are the latest in a fight that’s been developing for months within the party. Nowhere has that been clearer than in the predicament faced by the Democratic “Squad,” the group of far-left House members who have been at the forefront of efforts calling for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war and attacking Netanyahu for a military campaign that’s killed tens of thousands of civilians in the region. As a result, Squad members are about to face their stiffest political opposition yet. The force of these members’ condemnations of Israel — as well as Rep. Rashida Tlaib’s (D-Mich.) repetition of the pro-Palestinian phrase “from the river to the sea” which earned her a bipartisan censure in November — have powerful allies of Israel lining up to spend mammoth amounts of cash to oust this progressive wing from Congress. Since Squad members largely represent solidly blue congressional districts, it spells contentious Democratic primary contests. That starts with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee and associated allies, who are planning on spending over $100 million to break the Squad up. An AIPAC-affiliated super PAC has already launched ads hitting two Squad members — Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) and Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.) — along with libertarian Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) over their stances on the Israel-Hamas conflict. The Squad has generated considerable ire from more centrist Democrats during their time in office (the original four members were elected in 2018 and have since been joined by several other allies) and are accustomed to facing primary challenges. But this year, recruiting efforts have led to a slew of serious candidates lining up against these members. Those candidates include Bowman’s challenger George Latimer, the Westchester County executive who’s on a decades-long electoral winning streak, despite routinely being outspent by his opponents. Latimer insists that he doesn’t want the election to be a referendum on Israel, but he’s already gone after Bowman for accusing Israel of committing genocide and his announcement video attacked Bowman on the issue. Bowman notably won his seat in 2020 by defeating one of the biggest pro-Israel advocates in Congress, then-Democratic Rep. Eliot Engel, who held the district for almost three decades. The suburban district currently includes both a large Jewish community that tends to be pro-Israel as well as a significant percentage of Black voters who propelled Bowman to victory over Engel. In St. Louis, Squad member Rep. Cori Bush is facing off against St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell, who abandoned a Senate campaign for a chance to oust Bush. Jewish groups in St. Louis wrote a letter to the congresswoman condemning her statement calling for an end to “Israeli military occupation and apartheid” and Bell seized the opportunity. Elsewhere, POLITICO reported in November that a donor offered $20 million to Michigan Senate candidate Hill Harper to leave the race and challenge Tlaib — a report that Harper later confirmed. Tlaib, who is of Palestinian descent, has been the most pilloried for her stance on Israel since Oct. 7 — and this isn’t her first brush with the pro-Israel lobby. She survived a sustained attack from a pro-Israel PAC that spent $700,000 in the 2022 primary to unseat her, winning with 64 percent of the vote ahead of three other candidates. Her closest challenger pulled down 22 percent. The composition of Tlaib’s district — which includes Detroit suburbs such as Dearborn that are home to large Arab American communities that have been generally supportive of her stance on Israel — works to her advantage. Even though she doesn’t yet have a named challenger, the Democratic Majority for Israel PAC has already launched a six-figure ad buy against her. Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has pledged support to party incumbents across the board, though it’s an open question how much time and energy he will commit to standing behind the Squad. But the copious spending has some Democrats concerned that infighting could leave lasting wounds, affecting their ability to reclaim the House majority. If Democrats do manage to win back a majority next year, the open question prompted by these primaries is what that majority might look like. Would it hew closer to the center due to the departure of some of the party’s most progressive lawmakers? Does a smaller, deeply progressive wing have a chance to survive? Poll numbers among Democrats on the issue of Israel are in flux and show some souring on Israel’s actions in Gaza, in particular among young voters. If the Squad manages to survive challenges en masse, they could head into the 119th Congress in an enhanced position to shape the Democratic agenda, in particular if Democrats hold a small majority. Yet if even a few of them fall in primaries, their influence will be notably curbed. In this particular battle for the soul of the Democratic party, it will break along the fault-lines of the Israel issue. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh. What'd I Miss? — Second Biden official resigns over Israel-Hamas war concerns: A senior Biden education adviser on Wednesday became the second administration official to resign from his post over the White House’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, the latest instance of internal turmoil over the war. In a letter to Education Secretary Miguel Cardona, Tariq Habash, a policy adviser in the department’s Office of Planning, Evaluation and Policy Development, accused the U.S. of endangering Palestinians and accused the Israeli government of ethnic cleansing. — Kirby: Russia used North Korean missiles in Ukraine: Russia recently used North Korean ballistic missiles in Ukraine and is seeking Iranian missiles, a top White House official said today. “Our information indicates that the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea recently provided Russia with ballistic missile launchers and several ballistic missiles. On Dec. 30, 2023, Russian forces launched at least one of these North Korean missiles into Ukraine,” National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters, adding that Russia launched further missiles days later. The partnership between the two countries is a result of their shared isolation on the global stage, and shows how Russian President Vladimir Putin has been forced to seek new avenues to support his offensive in Ukraine. — Multiple people injured in Perry, Iowa, school shooting: Multiple people were injured in an early morning shooting at an Iowa high school today, local authorities said.The number of victims and the extent of their injuries were not immediately clear. Authorities said there was “no further danger to the public” at a press conference this morning. The Associated Press, citing an unnamed law enforcement official, reported that the suspect had died of what investigators believed to be a self-inflicted gunshot wound. The first reports of an active shooter at the Perry Middle School & High School campus arrived at approximately 7:37 a.m. local time, police said. Today was the first day back in school for students following the holiday break. Nightly Road to 2024 HOME FIELD DISADVANTAGE — Donald Trump trounced Ron DeSantis in the Florida governor’s home state. Again. Miami-Dade County Republicans overwhelmingly chose Trump over DeSantis to be their presidential nominee in a straw poll the party’s executive committee held this week. Of 65 party members who met in Miami Wednesday night, 53 votes went for Trump. Only five voted for DeSantis. The results show a stunning defeat for DeSantis, who was the first Republican in 20 years to flip Miami-Dade County from Democrat to Republican during his 2022 gubernatorial reelection victory. Ever since DeSantis entered the presidential race, polling shows the broad support he’d seen among certain key constituencies in Florida — Hispanics, women and independents — has fallen. TEAMSTERS AND TRUMP — After huddling privately with former President Donald Trump, Teamsters President Sean O’Brien said late Wednesday that the Republican primary frontrunner will meet with union members at its headquarters later this month. The union backed President Joe Biden in 2020 but is undertaking a more wide-ranging endorsement process this year. “There are serious issues that need to [be] addressed to improve the lives of working people across the country, and the Teamsters Union is making sure our members’ voices are heard as we head into a critical election year,” O’Brien said in a message posted on social media along with a picture of him posing with Trump. THE WAR ON NIKKI HALEY — Nikki Haley’s rivals for the Republican presidential nomination are ratcheting up their attacks on her as Iowa’s first-in-the-nation voting draws closer, reports the Associated Press. The barbed news releases, attack ads and amped up back-and-forth come as the former South Carolina governor and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis battle for a distant second place to former President Donald Trump with less than two weeks until Iowa’s leadoff caucuses. For months, Trump has trained his focus on DeSantis, who has long argued that he’s the party’s best chance at unseating Trump from atop the field. But in recent weeks, Trump’s campaign has increasingly shifted its target to Haley, calling her a “sellout” and criticizing her stances on taxes and the U.S.-Mexico border. AROUND THE WORLD A view of a phone tower of Ukrainian mobile telephone network operator Kyivstar seen in the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine, on Nov. 30, 2022. | Andrew Kravchenko/AP ON THE INSIDE — Russian hackers were inside Ukrainian telecoms giant Kyivstar’s system from at least May last year in a cyberattack which crippled its services in December, Ukraine’s top cyber spy said. In an interview with Reuters published today, Illia Vitiuk, head of the Security Service of Ukraine’s cybersecurity department, said: “This attack is a big message, a big warning, not only to Ukraine, but for the whole Western world to understand that no one is actually untouchable," adding it wiped "almost everything," including thousands of virtual servers and PCs. The attack caused more than 24.3 million Kyivstar customers to lose phone reception, with banks reporting disruptions to their services and Ukrainians in the country’s eastern war zone being left without a connection. Vitiuk has attributed the attack to Sandworm, a Russian military intelligence cyberwarfare unit which has been linked to cyberattacks in Ukraine and elsewhere. KICKING THE CAN — Rishi Sunak said his “working assumption” is that he won’t call a U.K. general election until the second half of 2024. In his clearest hint yet at timing for the poll, the British prime minister told broadcaster ITV: "My working assumption is we’ll have a general election in the second half of this year." Sunak, whose party is trailing in the polls, must call an election by 2025 under U.K. rules. But within those limits, the timing is in his gift. His comments — which leave him wiggle room to adjust that plan — come amid pressure from the opposition parties to call an election in the spring. Nightly Number $708 million The amount of money that New York Mayor Eric Adams is suing 17 Texas charter bus companies for in his latest attempt to thwart Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s policy of busing thousands of migrants from his state’s border to New York City. The lawsuit seeks to cover the costs of caring for migrants transported to the city, the mayor said. RADAR SWEEP I, ROBOT — Just over three years ago, the world watched in fascination — and slight fear — at a video of Boston Dynamic robots dancing to the catchy song “Do You Love Me.” Now, with the MIT robotics company having over 40 million views on the YouTube video and influence on Black Mirror episodes, Boston Dynamics wants to make its robots think for themselves. The idea may sound scary, especially after watching the robots move just like humans. But Marc Raibert, founder of the Boston Dynamics AI Institute, has no worries. In an interview with WIRED’s Will Knight, Raibert said the robots are far from reaching any concerning level of independent intelligence — even amid rising concerns over the unregulated use of AI. This story discusses why Raibert is optimistic about the intersection between AI and robots — and why we should welcome, not fear its future. Parting Image On this date in 1932: A huge crowd of disciples gather to listen to Mahatma Gandhi speak in Bombay, India. Gandhi was arrested later that day by British troops for his activities in his passive resistance campaign against England. | AP Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh Mia McCarthy @Reporter_Mia   Follow us

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