Ukraine blame game

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Jan 24, 2024 View in browser   By Matt Berg and Alexander Ward A Ukrainian official painted a stark picture: “We are trying to save ammunition,” he said. “If you're only allowed to shoot 20 or 30 times per day, there will be no progress on the battlefield.” | Efrem Lukatsky/AP With help from Lara Seligman, Erin Banco and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt If Russia wins the war against Ukraine, some officials in Kyiv are ready to pin the blame on the West, a Ukrainian military official told NatSec Daily. During conversations with other Ukrainian colleagues, the military official said he has heard complaints that Western assistance to Kyiv is too slow and that allies have refused to send all the weapons requested for the war effort. “Unfortunately, there are some bad guys trying to somehow blame our most confident allies that we cannot win this war because of them,” said the military official, granted anonymity to discuss private conversations. But the West has done its fair share, he said, arguing that Kyiv’s military didn’t adequately prepare for Russia’s full-scale invasion and that — even though the U.S. hasn’t delivered all the weapons it has requested — the military is far stronger today than it was before February 2022. Without Western support, Ukraine would have surrendered in April of that year, he added. If assistance doesn’t keep flowing, however, President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY may ramp up his criticism of the West since he’s losing internal support and “will desperately look for options of whom to blame,” the military official said. Zelenskyy, for instance, partially condemned the West for Ukraine’s failed summer counteroffensive. As Ukraine’s military runs out of support and weapons, Western backers are also sounding the alarm. On Tuesday, a senior Pentagon official said Ukrainian soldiers were low on ammunition, complicating their already difficult fight against entrenched Russian troops. Congressionally authorized funds for Kyiv dried up, the White House announced on Jan. 11, leading the administration to halt the transfer of guns, bullets and other military items from American stockpiles to Ukraine earlier this month. The Ukrainian official painted a stark picture: “We are trying to save ammunition,” he said. “If you're only allowed to shoot 20 or 30 times per day, there will be no progress on the battlefield.” President JOE BIDEN put forward a $61 billion request for Ukraine as part of a larger package including aid for Israel and a boost in border security. Sen. JAMES LANKFORD (R-Okla.), the Republican leading negotiations over the border portion, said this week he was “very hopeful” text of an agreement would be released for lawmakers to peruse very soon. A vote on the measure still isn’t scheduled. The alarm bells continue to ring. GRANT SHAPPS, the United Kingdom’s defense secretary, penned a POLITICO op-ed today calling on allies to rally once again to Ukraine’s side. If that doesn’t happen, he warns, Kyiv could lose the war. “The message I’m sending my counterparts on the Ukrainian Defense Contact Group is that they too must take action,” he wrote, referring to the alliance of Kyiv’s allies that met this week. “We must maintain this momentum. And we need more diplomatic, economic and military support to do so.” The Biden administration has made clear there’s no Plan B for Ukraine: Either Congress authorizes more funds or it doesn’t. Sales of weapons can continue under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, but those take much longer to reach the battlefield than items already on American shelves. A message from Lockheed Martin: F-35: Advancing 21st Century Security The F-35 is vital to 21st Century Security, connecting assets across domains with advanced capabilities and networking to ensure those we serve stay ahead of ready. Learn More.   The Inbox HOSTAGE TALKS: Israel and Hamas agree that Israeli hostages could be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners over the course of a month-long cease-fire, but a deal is being held up by discussions on how to bring the war to an end, three people told Reuters. The talks, mediated by Qatar, Washington and Egypt, have been ongoing since late December, though Hamas has “refused to move forward with the plans until the future conditions of a permanent ceasefire are agreed,” Reuters writes. The militant group wants an agreement for a permanent cease-fire before releasing hostages, a Palestinian official told the outlet. Meanwhile, BRETT McGURK, the top National Security Council official on the Middle East, is headed to Qatar and Egypt to discuss the potential for a deal and further humanitarian assistance for Gaza. “There’s a long way to go before reaching any agreements,” read a text between Israeli officials, shown to The Washington Post’s KAREN DeYOUNG and SHIRA RUBIN. “Israel is offering various terms for the return of the hostages, with a pause in fighting seen as a given … but in no way will Israel give up on destroying Hamas, the return of the hostages.” Israel continued its military operation in southern Gaza today, ordering civilians to evacuate part of the city of Khan Younis where top Hamas officials are believed to be hiding. Thousands of people were trapped at a hospital by heavy fighting, however, and Israeli forces surrounded a second hospital in the area where displaced people were sheltering, The New York Times’ VICTORIA KIM and HIBA YAZBEK report. Tank shells hit a U.N. training center holding tens of thousands of displaced people in the city today, killing at least nine people and injuring another 75, a senior U.N. relief official told Reuters’ IDREES ALI. RUSSIAN PLANE CRASH: A large Russian military plane crashed this morning in a massive fireball close to the Ukrainian border, our own SERGEY GORYASHKO reports, with Moscow claiming it had carried 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war for exchange. The aircraft crashed near the Russian border city of Belgorod, Russian state news agencies reported, citing the ministry of defense. A pair of Ukrainian outlets reported that the Ukrainian Armed Forces downed the plane and that the aircraft could have been carrying missiles. They later partly retracted the information, noting only that the freighter was capable of carrying missiles but saying nothing about what caused the crash. POLITICO was not able to independently verify the claims and counter-claims. Moscow later accused Ukraine of deliberately shooting down the plane, calling it “a barbaric act,” Reuters reports. OUT OF YEMEN: Yemen’s Houthi authorities have ordered American and British officials and workers, as well as humanitarian organizations, to leave the country within a month, Reuters’ MOHAMMED ALGHOBARI and RIYAM MUKHASHAF report. The news comes shortly after the U.S. carried out more strikes in Yemen, destroying a pair of Houthi anti-ship missiles aimed toward the Red Sea, according to U.S. Central Command. In the past two weeks, American and British forces have targeted the militant group several times as it continues to attack commercial shipping vessels in the region. Also today, Baghdad condemned Washington for conducting airstrikes against the Kataib Hezbollah militia and other groups in Iraq on Tuesday, which Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN said were "in direct response to a series of escalatory attacks" on U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria. "This unacceptable act undermines years of co-operation ... at a time when the region is already grappling with the danger of expanding conflict, the repercussions of the aggression on Gaza," said Maj. Gen. YEHIA RASOOL, spokesperson for Prime Minister MOHAMMED SHIA' AL SUDANI, per BBC News’ LIPIKA PELHAM. STOP THE FIGHTING: The U.S. is embarking on a full-court diplomatic press to once again try to reduce the fighting in eastern Congo, two U.S. officials told our own ERIN BANCO. In November, top intelligence officials, including Director of National Intelligence AVRIL HAINES, traveled to the region and brokered an agreement between Congo and Rwanda to pause the fighting, remove offensive weapons from the battlefield and refrain from hate speech. But following the Congolese presidential election on Dec. 20, that pact fell apart and fighting resumed between forces aligned with Congo and Rwandan-backed rebels. Now, Washington is trying again to get peace talks back on track. U.S. officials traveled to the region earlier this month to begin working on a new agreement, the officials said. The officials declined to go into details of the negotiations but said the U.S. is trying “new approaches” and “identifying small steps” to pursue, including limiting the armament of rebel groups. In his stop in Angola this week, Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN will speak with President JOÃO LOURENÇO about the situation in eastern Congo and the ongoing talks. Angola helped broker another agreement in 2022 to create a political dialogue between Kinshasa and Kigali in an attempt to help stop the fighting. NO SYRIA DRAWDOWN: The U.S. is not considering withdrawing troops from Syria, a senior administration official and a Defense Department official tell Alex and LARA SELIGMAN, despite some recent reports to the contrary. Al-Monitor reported earlier this week that the Pentagon has floated a proposal to have the Syrian Democratic Forces, a longtime U.S. partner in the fight against the Islamic State, partner with the Syrian regime as part of a “renewed review” of U.S. Syria policy. But the DOD official tells us that report is “inaccurate.” The U.S. currently has 900 troops in Syria dedicated to helping the SDF ensure ISIS does not resurge. Those troops have recently come under attack dozens of times by Iranian proxy groups, part of an uptick in anti-American activity by those militants in Iraq and Syria after the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks on Israel. Still, there are currently no plans to remove U.S. troops from the country, the officials said. ORBÁN ABOUT-FACE: Hungarian Prime Minister VIKTOR ORBÁN, the last remaining holdout in Sweden's bid to join NATO, said today that he supports its application and vows that Hungary's parliament will say yes "at the first possible opportunity,” our own STUART LAU reports. IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on X at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.   YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics.      ELECTION 2024 THE WARS PRIMARY: America’s foreign wars are likely to remain a central part of the Republican primary as NIKKI HALEY vows to continue campaigning after DONALD TRUMP’s win in New Hampshire. As Reuters pointed out, both candidates took a different approach to conflict in the state. Haley warned about a coming war with China and the need to build up defenses. Trump, meanwhile, spoke often about his coziness with Chinese leader XI JINPING and how only he can avoid World War III. A Monmouth University/Washington Post poll this week found that 57 percent of potential Republican primary voters preferred the former president’s foreign policy approach compared to 32 percent for Haley. That’s a potential warning sign for Biden. While he and Haley see the world differently, Biden is more aligned with the former U.N. ambassador on foreign policy than with Trump. This divide is therefore likely to carry over into a general election that right now looks likely to again pit Trump and Biden against each other. Keystrokes THE RACE FOR SPACE … LAW: SpaceX’s control over more than half the satellites orbiting Earth has countries delving deeper into space law. Some advocates and scholars claim the company’s dominance is a violation of the Outer Space Treaty — which prohibits the militarization of space — and a “colonial land grab,” Wired’s KHARI JOHNSON reports. “Some players in the global south are gearing up for the orbital future not just by scrambling to launch satellites, but by building up skills in outer space law,” Johnson writes. “This is an area of rulemaking where they’re just setting up the rules for the future, so you need to have a perspective now,” said TIMIEBI AGANABA, an Arizona State University professor who is working to build interest in space among African people. “If the system gets built without you — if you come in later — people will start quoting laws to you.” Per Johnson, there’s a race to get people from Africa and other developing areas interested in space so they, too, can set the rules of the commons. As he writes: “Compared to the race to put satellites into orbit, the race to become an international voice in space law is pretty wide open.”   Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here.     The Complex FUNDING THE FIGHT: The Pentagon estimates the U.S. military buildup in the Middle East since Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks will cost $1.6 billion, a bill the department is unable to pay due to lawmakers’ inability to pass a budget, two U.S. officials told Lara, JOE GOULD and CONNOR O’BRIEN. The Defense Department recently sent the estimate to congressional appropriators in response to questions, said the officials, who were granted anonymity to speak about information that hasn’t been made public. The overall number includes the cost to send additional warships, fighter jets and equipment to the region, and keep them there for the last four months, the officials said. It does not include the cost of the missiles the U.S. military has expended striking Houthi positions in Yemen or knocking down drones and missiles in the Red Sea, they said, because there is not enough data yet to make those calculations. Over a full year, the cost for the military surge could rise to $2.2 billion, according to the estimate. ICYMI — War cats: Ukraine enlists feline friends in fight against Russia by our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA and EVA HARTOG On the Hill ‘THE BUBBLE … IS REAL’: Most lawmakers are oblivious to how many Americans support the Palestinian cause as Israel’s devastating military operation in the Gaza Strip continues, Rep. RASHIDA TLAIB (D-Mich.) told The Nation’s JOHN NICHOLS. “The bubble of Congress and D.C. is real,” Tlaib said. “I always knew it was there. I understood that, as somebody that was on the outside, in local politics and organizing. And now being on the inside, I can tell you the disconnect is real, and I understand why many Americans don’t feel like Congress speaks for them.” In December, a Morning Consult poll showed that 59 percent of Americans support a cease-fire in Gaza, up 6 percentage points from the month before. Tlaib was among the first lawmakers to call for a permanent cease-fire in Gaza after the Hamas attack on Oct. 7, drawing widespread condemnation from her colleagues, including being censured over her remarks. But the movement to support Palestinians affected by the fighting is only growing stronger, she said. “I think that’s what’s been kind of a shock to many of my colleagues, who think I’m somehow leading this movement,” Tlaib said. “I say, ‘No, the movement is leading me, and that’s how it’s supposed to be.’”     Broadsides BE PREPARED: The British public should be ready to join the armed forces in case a larger war with Russia breaks out, the U.K.’s Army chief said today. Gen. PATRICK SANDERS called on the British authorities to “mobilize the nation” to prepare for a war with Russia during a speech at the International Armored Vehicles exhibition in London, as our own NICOLAS CAMUT reports. Although he does not support conscription, Sanders stressed the need for a “shift” in the minds of the British public to be mentally ready for a military conflict with Russia. European defense and military officials have escalated their rhetoric recently as the war in Ukraine grinds on. Last week, Germany’s Defense Minister BORIS PISTORIUS said a Russian attack on the NATO military alliance was “possible” in “five to eight years.” Dutch Adm. ROB BAUER, a top NATO official, had earlier said the military bloc faced “the most dangerous world in decades” and called for a “warfighting transformation of NATO.” Read: Georgia follows Putin’s lead, new report says by our own LAURA HÜLSEMANN Transitions — EITAN GELLER-MONTAGUE is now special adviser for legislative affairs at the Office of the National Cyber Director at the White House. He most recently was an adviser to the administrator at the TSA. — JARED JANECZKO is the German Marshall Fund’s new chief operating officer. Janeczko worked in a variety of leadership positions at CARE. — IVO DAALDER has joined WestExec Advisors as a senior adviser. Daalder, CEO of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, is a former U.S. ambassador to NATO. — KYUNG-WHA KANG will be the Asia Society’s new president and CEO starting in August. She was most recently South Korea’s minister of foreign affairs. What to Read — JOSHUA ZEITZ, POLITICO: What history says about Biden’s power to strike back against the Houthis — OLEKSANDR DANYLYUK, Royal United Services Institute: What Ukraine’s defeat would mean for the U.S., Europe and the world — ANSHEL PFEFFER, The New York Times: The man who could unseat Netanyahu Tomorrow Today — Asia Society, 8:30 a.m.: Asia spotlight 2024 — Wilson Center's Asia Program and the Japan-America Society, 9 a.m.: Japan in the year 2024 — Hudson Institute, 9: 30 a.m.: Defense disruptors — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: U.S. allies and global tech competition — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: Debate on U.S. nuclear targeting — The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation and Institute, 11 a.m.: Beyond the sensitive compartmented information facility: biosecurity and the weaponization of artificial intelligence — The Government Executive Media Group and Palo Alto Networks, 2 p.m.: AI future threats and how to combat them Thanks to our editor, Emma Anderson, who deserves the blame for all of our issues. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who gives us what we need to win every day. A message from Lockheed Martin: F-35: Delivering what’s next to ensure those we serve stay ahead of ready. At Lockheed Martin, our mission is to deliver seamless and secure integrated deterrence with advanced systems that serve as intelligent nodes in the networked battlespace. Learn More.     Follow us on Twitter Alex Ward @alexbward   Follow us

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