What we’re watching in a real one-on-one GOP primary

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Jan 22, 2024 View in browser   By Madison Fernandez Presented by TOP LINE Donald Trump and Nikki Haley were acting like New Hampshire was a two-person race. Over the weekend, it actually became one. Ron DeSantis abruptly ended his bid and endorsed Trump on Sunday. His departure doesn’t necessarily change much in the Granite State, which he was largely skipping to instead focus on South Carolina. But the stakes are now even higher for Haley. Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley speaks at a campaign rally in Exeter, N.H., on Jan. 21, 2024. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO Haley’s supporters argue she still has a path even if she doesn’t win New Hampshire. Just a few weeks ago, it looked like she could topple the frontrunner. But (most) recent polling has shown a double-digit gap between the two. Oh, and there’s a Democratic primary happening on Tuesday, too — kind of. Joe Biden isn’t on the ballot, but his supporters in the Granite State are banking on a write-in effort to give him a win over Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson. We asked some of POLITICO’s presidential campaign reporters to break down what’s next in the Granite State. What has stuck out to you over the last week in New Hampshire? Just how abnormal this primary is. The frontrunner, Trump, only comes in to hold rallies at night and spends his days in court or elsewhere. Haley is the only one doing the traditional barnstorming — and it even took her a few days to ramp up to that. The usual frenzy, this is not. — Lisa Kashinsky  The lack of drama or excitement. Trump had a decisive victory in Iowa. Haley coming in third took some of the wind out of her sails going into New Hampshire. — Meridith McGraw One jarring difference between being in Iowa and New Hampshire (besides 20 degrees now feeling relatively warm) is how the race here suddenly, truly became a two-way one between Trump and Haley. When I talked to Iowans the week before the caucuses, a list of names was still coming up. But here, there was Trump, there was Haley, and there was no one else, even before everyone else dropped out. — Natalie Allison What are you watching on Tuesday night? If there was any state where Trump would be vulnerable, it's New Hampshire. There are more undeclared voters than registered Republicans or Democrats, and the electorate has always had a moderate, independent streak. That being said, there are questions about whether or not those voters will be motivated to show up on Tuesday. There are no questions about whether or not Trump's base will get out to the polls. Haley's team needs a large — even historic — turnout of those undeclared voters on Tuesday night if she is going to deliver any kind of upset or come close to Trump. If she doesn't, it seems Trump is going to steamroll through to the nomination. — Meridith A good night for Haley is her beating Trump. An OK night for Haley is coming within a few points of him. — Natalie A good night for Biden depends on who you ask. (Unsurprisingly.) A good night, his allies will say, is victory, no matter the margin. In part, they say, is how unprecedented this moment is. His backers will point to Sen. Lisa Murkowski's (R-Alaska) 2010 write-in victory, when she took 39 percent of the vote, as a better measuring stick. Look, they're right, a win is a win is a win. If the write-in Biden manages that, then they can move on to far safer territory in South Carolina. But if he's under 50 percent with a Democratic primary electorate, that'll certainly raise eyebrows. If we see Phillips putting up strong numbers — so let's say in the 30s — that does signal some real frustration with Biden's leadership. Based on my conversations about Phillips with voters, it's less about his appeal but rather him being a vessel for their frustrations about Biden. — Elena Schneider How does DeSantis dropping out change the race? DeSantis' exit on Sunday officially turns the primary into a two-person race and means that it'll probably all be over on Tuesday if Trump wins New Hampshire as projected. Because DeSantis had low support in the Granite State, only a small number of people who backed him will move on to another candidate — and that person is expected to be Trump not only because their policies are so similar but because DeSantis endorsed Trump when he exited. — Kimberly Leonard It only benefits Trump. — Meridith I don't see it changing anything in New Hampshire. — Natalie Happy Monday. What do you have an eye on in New Hampshire? Let me know at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the New Hampshire presidential primaries: 1 Days until the Nevada presidential primaries: 15 Days until the Nevada GOP caucus: 17 Days until the NY-03 special election: 22 Days until the South Carolina Republican presidential primary: 33 Days until Super Tuesday: 43 Days until the Republican National Convention: 176 Days until the Democratic National Convention: 211 Days until the 2024 election: 289   A message from PREMION Political: Streaming TV and the Political Market: From a Midterm Year to a Presidential. As eyeballs continue to move away from linear TV and the time and attention of consumers and voters shifts to streaming, political ad dollars must move with them. A report by Campaigns & Elections and Premion provides a practical guide for political advertisers. Click to download the complimentary report now.   Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories. Presidential Big Board THE ROAD AHEAD — Trump and Haley already have their sights set beyond New Hampshire. At his New Hampshire rally on Saturday, Trump brought a handful of South Carolina officials with him, including Gov. Henry McMaster, Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette and Attorney General Alan Wilson, in hopes of sending a message to Haley before they hit her home state in a few weeks. But first comes Nevada. Trump is competing in the party-run caucus, which is two days after the state-run primary. It was widely expected that the caucus would be a lock for him, but it especially is so now since he’s the only major candidate still in it. Haley is running in the primary, where no delegates are being awarded. The former president announced a Nevada rally for Jan. 27. Haley will be rallying in South Carolina on Jan. 24. … Biden is also betting on South Carolina. He’s all but certain to win the first sanctioned Democratic primary. But his campaign is paying a heightened amount of attention to the state as his aides and allies see South Carolina as a “crucial opportunity to quiet critics by demonstrating enthusiasm among Black voters,” Holly Otterbein and Elena write. MAYBE TO NO LABELS — Phillips isn’t saying no to a No Labels bid. He said at a campaign event over the weekend that he’d consider running on the centrist third-party ticket, “as long as the data supports it, to defeat the most dangerous man in the world.” Former Republican Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, who stepped down from No Labels leadership late last year and has insisted he doesn’t want to run for president, also said that he sees a “crack in the door” for a run. ENDORSEMENT CORNER — More endorsements poured in ahead of New Hampshire. Former Republican presidential hopeful Sen. Tim Scott spurned his fellow South Carolinian — who initially appointed him to his Senate seat — and endorsed Trump. Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), who is facing a primary challenger that is capitalizing on Good’s initial endorsement of DeSantis, quickly threw his backing behind Trump after DeSantis dropped out. Haley picked up some support, too. Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who ended his presidential bid last week, endorsed her, as did Republican Vermont Gov. Phil Scott. THE VEEPSTAKES — “Trump hasn’t won the primary yet, but the rush is already on to catch his attention,” Alex Isenstadt and Meridith write. “The list of those who decamped to the early-voting states of New Hampshire and, before that, Iowa includes — what’s widely perceived to be — a who’s who of potential veeps: Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, Arizona U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake and Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R-Ark.). South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem and former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson have also made trips to early primary states to stump for Trump.” Haley, meanwhile, has no interest in being VP: Being vice president is “off the table,” she told voters on Friday. POLL POSITION PRESIDENTIAL — NEW HAMPSHIRE — Trump has a dominant lead over Haley in New Hampshire, according to a CNN/University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll. The former president has 50 percent of support, compared to Haley’s 39 percent. The poll was conducted before DeSantis dropped out; he was at 6 percent (1,210 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 16-19, MoE +/- 2.8 percentage points). On the Democratic side, 63 percent of likely voters say they’re planning to write in Biden. Phillips has 10 percent of support, and Williamson has 9 percent (838 likely Democratic primary voters, MoE +/- 3.5 percentage points). … SOUTH CAROLINA — Pro-Trump MAGA Inc. publicized an internal poll conducted by Fabrizio, Lee and Associates showing him with 68 percent of support in a head-to-head contest with Haley, who has 28 percent. We haven’t seen much polling out of South Carolina yet (600 likely Republican primary voters, Jan. 17-18, MoE +/- 4.0 percentage points). CAMPAIGN INTEL REDISTRICTING REDUX — Louisiana has a new congressional map. The state legislature passed the map after a federal court ordered it to add a second majority-Black district because its congressional lines likely violated the Voting Rights Act by diluting the voting power of Black Louisianans. Republican Rep. Garret Graves’ district, LA-06, was impacted, creating the opportunity for Democrats to add a second member to the state’s congressional delegation. LA-06 now stretches from northwest Louisiana all the way down to East Baton Rouge, and Graves has warned that it will not withstand scrutiny in the courts. The new map goes against the wishes of Speaker Mike Johnson, who last week fretted about Democrats flipping the seat and urged the state to fight the ruling in court. Graves indicated that he’ll be running for reelection, despite the challenging seat. CALIFORNIA DREAMIN’ — Democratic California Reps. Adam Schiff and Katie Porter are in a bruising — and expensive — primary that could hurt the rest of the party in the Golden State. “Some Democratic House campaigns in California have already seen the Senate race start to siphon money and attention away from swing-seats,” Ally Mutnick writes. “The agony of having two of the best fundraisers in the House battle each other has left some in the party hoping that a Republican nabs the second spot in the top-two primary on March 5.” Republican Steve Garvey, Schiff, Porter and Democratic Rep. Barbara Lee will be onstage for the first televised California Senate debate from 6 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. PST Monday in Los Angeles. It will be livestreamed on POLITICO. SENATE SCRAMBLE — There are still some major question marks hovering over this year’s Senate map. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) is still not saying if she’s running for reelection. Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) might launch a primary challenge to party-backed Tim Sheehy — but as Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) puts it, “I can’t predict what the hell he’s going to do.” And a Trump endorsement could scramble competitive primaries in Michigan and Nevada. Burgess Everett and Ally break down what to keep an eye on in the battle for the upper chamber. 2024 WATCH — Former Maine Republican Party Chair Demi Kouzounas is running against independent Sen. Angus King. She said that Republican Sen. Susan Collins prompted her to launch a bid. SPEAKER STRUGGLES — Johnson’s chances of holding onto the speaker’s gavel could hinge on the 2024 elections. If Republicans lose the House, “they’d also shed a leadership seat next year,” Olivia Beavers writes. “That vacancy could trigger a power struggle between Johnson and other top Republicans, including [Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Majority Whip Tom Emmer]. … Johnson allies argue that skeptics are underestimating him, pointing to his quick progress assuaging concerns that he couldn’t keep up with [former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s] torrid fundraising pace.” PARTY PROBLEMS — A group of breakaway Michigan Republicans sued Kristina Karamo to have her legally removed as chair of the Michigan Republican Party and voted to elect former Rep. Pete Hoekstra to be chair. Karamo insists she is still chair. (And if you missed all the drama behind this earlier this month, here’s our story.) IN THE STATES — Democratic California state Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins is running for governor in 2026, joining a crowded field of Democrats vying for the post. Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is term-limited.   A message from PREMION Political:   AS SEEN ON TV PRESIDENTIAL — Haley is running a spot coming in at three minutes ahead of tomorrow’s primary in New Hampshire. The ad features the mother of Otto Warmbier — a young American who fell into a coma while imprisoned in North Korea in 2016 and died upon his return to the United States — who spoke at a Haley campaign event. … The Biden campaign is up with a spot in battleground states featuring a Texas woman saying her choice to have an abortion of a fetus with a fatal condition “was taken away” by Trump. NY-03 — The Congressional Leadership Fund, the main House GOP super PAC, is pouring over $1 million into next month’s special election, hitting former Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi on immigration. The ad accuses Suozzi of helping “create our immigration crisis.” The large buy helps close the gap for Republicans, who are lagging behind Democrats by millions of dollars in ad spending for the race. AL-01 — Republican Rep. Jerry Carl, who’s facing a rare member-on-member primary challenge from Rep. Barry Moore, is up with his first attack ad against his opponent. The ad accuses Moore of not supporting a wall at the U.S.-Mexico border, saying he’s “not a conservative” and is “betraying Trump and Alabama.” Carl has been flooding the airwaves for months ahead of the March primary, but all of his previous spots have been positive and boosted his conservative credentials. VOTING RIGHTS LOUISIANA LOOK — Louisiana is changing its primary system for some of its elections. The state legislature passed a bill that would change its open primary system — in which candidates of all party affiliations compete together, and there is a runoff between the top two vote-getters if no one hits 50 percent — for congressional and a handful of state contests (not governor) to closed primaries. It will go into effect for the 2026 elections, even though Republican Gov. Jeff Landry wanted to scrap the open primary system entirely for 2024. THE CASH DASH YEAR IN REVIEW — Scalise raised over $27.2 million last year. He transferred $9.7 million to the NRCC and gave or raised $3.5 million directly for candidates. STAFFING UP — Jonae Wartel is senior adviser for the Biden campaign in Georgia. She was previously an aide on Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock’s campaigns and was runoff director for the Georgia Democratic Party in 2021. CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — “We are here for one reason: Those great philosophers, the Spice Girls, tell us what you want, what you really, really want. Well that’s what we’re here to do, to tell you what we in South Carolina want.” — McMaster at Trump’s Saturday New Hampshire rally.   A message from PREMION Political: Premium OTT for winning electoral & issue advocacy campaigns Nielsen reports TV viewers are continuing to choose streaming over cable. Premium OTT is the best way to engage those viewers for winning campaigns in 2024.  PREMION Political has the dedicated and experienced team- plus proven & new premium products, including programmatic, dynamic creative, and incremental reach attribution- to help you win. A report by Campaigns & Elections and Premion provides a practical guide for political advertisers. Download the complimentary report, Streaming TV and the Political Market: From a Midterm Year to a Presidential here.     Follow us on Twitter Steven Shepard @politico_steve Zach Montellaro @zachmontellaro Ally Mutnick @allymutnick Madison Fernandez @madfernandez616   Follow us

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