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Jan 04, 2024 View in browser   By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Zi-Ann Lum Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Nick | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it. In today's edition: → Introducing … Playbook's Prognosticators of 2023. → Part one in our 2024 prognostications. Try to beat the pundits. → It’s Trivia Cup Registration Day. DRIVING THE DAY Playbook invited pundits to prove their psychic powers. | Sean Kilpatrick, The Canadian Press 2023 PROGNOSTICATORS OF THE YEAR — Last January, Playbook tested the clairvoyance of a smattering of plugged-in pundits on key political questions for 2023. We put the same questions to a Magic 8 Ball. Here’s how things shook out: → Q. Will there be a general election? A. No. The Liberal-NDP supply-and-confidence agreement survived the year. The Liberals didn't proactively pull the plug on Parliament. → Q. Will the Tories win a by-election? A. Yes. They won three: Oxford, where a nomination controversy contributed to a slimmer-than-typical win for ARPAN KHANNA; Portage-Lisgar, where CANDICE BERGEN's retirement paved the way for BRANDEN LESLIE; and Calgary Heritage, where SHUV MAJUMDAR cruised to victory. → Q. Will the government table a pharmacare act? A. No. The Liberal-NDP deal called for the passage of a bill that would make "progress towards a universal national pharmacare program," but the first draft of the government bill left New Dems unimpressed. They've now pledged to cooperatively produce legislation by March. → Q. Will inflation be the top political issue? A. Yes, though pollsters often focused on the broader impact of the price of things on Canadians' lives — styled as "cost of living" or "affordability," depending on the survey. → Q. Will DANIELLE SMITH win Alberta's provincial election? Yes. The premier kicked off 2023 as a betting underdog, but Smith broke a statistical tie and comfortably won the May vote. The NDP gained seats in the legislature but couldn't reclaim government. → Q. How many senators will be appointed in 2023? The over/under was 7. Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU named 12 new senators, including longtime Liberal MP RODGER CUZNER. → Q. How many ministers will be shuffled? The over/under was 6. A. Eighteen ministers swapped roles in a massive July game of musical chairs. Trudeau appointed seven newbies to replace an equal number dropped from Cabinet. → Q. Excluding vacations, how many countries will Trudeau visit? The over/under was 13. A. The prime minister visited exactly 13 countries: Mexico, Bahamas, U.S., U.K., South Korea, Japan, Ukraine, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Indonesia, Singapore and India. We're not counting his holiday trip to Jamaica. → Q. Which party leaders will keep their jobs? A. All of them. → Q. Will the Maple Leafs win the Stanley Cup? A. Hahaha. Of course not, much to the chagrin of your long-suffering Playbook host. — And the winners are: We had a tie at 8 points out of a possible 10. We're thrilled to announce that Earnscliffe principal SHAKIR CHAMBERS and lawyer/commentator KARAMVEER LALH are the 2023 Playbook Prognosticators of the Year. (Now there's an accolade to show off on LinkedIn.) The runners-up with 7 points: DAN ARNOLD, COLE HOGAN, SUSAN SMITH, STEPHEN TAYLOR and YAROSLAV BARAN. — As for the Magic 8 Ball: We could only ask the six yes/no questions to the inanimate object that sees the future. And it nailed every one. Will Justin Trudeau still be prime minister at the end of 2024? Playbook asked the pundits. | Efrem Lukatsky/AP Photo 2024 PREDICTIONS — Playbook is again asking pundits to prove their psychic powers in a bid for bragging rights. We'll roll out their forecasts in a pair of Playbooks as you turn off out-of-office replies and open your team Slack for the first time in weeks. Today, our first trove of questions: — Will there be a general election? Few pundits predicted one in 2023. A few more think one is in the offing this year, but most say Parliament will find a way to survive. Enterprise Canada's MITCH HEIMPEL served up this reliable axiom: "No election for the same reason the turkeys don't vote for Thanksgiving." Translation: The risk of electoral disaster is too great a risk for Liberals (and New Democrats). Texture Communications' MELANIE PARADIS has her eyes on 2025: "The Bank of Canada is starting to indicate rates may come down. If Liberals wait for that to take effect through 2024, the economy may feel better for the average Canadian and that will no longer be the giant elephant in the ballot counting room." → Magic 8 Ball: "Outlook good." — Will Trudeau still be PM at the end of the year? Yes, say most pundits. But that won't stop anybody from asking will-he-or-won't-he questions should Liberal polling remain in the tank or Canada experiences a bonafide recession. Brace for a bevy of columns on Feb. 29, the 40-year anniversary of PIERRE TRUDEAU's Leap Day retirement announcement. → Magic 8 Ball: "Without a doubt." — Will a pharmacare bill be passed into law before summer break? Liberals and New Democrats are in negotiations on legislation. March is the new target for at least introducing a mutually supported bill in Parliament. Earnscliffe's MÉLANIE RICHER and WWF-Canada's MEGAN LESLIE both think legislation will be law by June. Richer is a former comms director to JAGMEET SINGH. Leslie is a former NDP MP and deputy leader. Sandstone's KEVIN BOSCH staked out the middle ground: "I think a pharmacare plan will be announced and advanced but I am not confident a bill will pass by the summer break." → Magic 8 Ball: "Yes." — Excluding vacays, how many countries will Trudeau visit? For two consecutive years, the prime minister has spent time in 13 countries. He has visited the U.S. every year except 2015 and 2020, and the U.K. is near the top of his most-traveled list. Also on this year's list of travel targets that are either probable or possible: Italy for the G7 summit; France for the Olympics or the Francophonie summit (or both); Laos for the ASEAN summit; Samoa for the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting; Peru for the APEC summit; Brazil for the G20 summit; and Azerbaijan for global climate talks, though agenda overlap with the South American jaunt would produce an ambitious transoceanic itinerary. Sprinkle in a couple of bilateral visits, a potential unannounced trip to Ukraine, maybe a side trip to EU headquarters in Belgium after the 80th anniversary of D-Day. There's your 13. Taking the over, StrategyCorp's GARRY KELLER: "When you're down in the polls and doing a foreign visit to Paris is more attractive than battling Poilievre in the House, expect to see a lot of foreign travel in 2024 for the PM." Taking the under, Enterprise's Heimpel: "A prime minister with Justin Trudeau's poll numbers faces more caucus problems the more he's away from home." → Magic 8 Ball: We asked if Trudeau will visit more than 13 countries. Prediction: "Cannot predict now." — When will CHRYSTIA FREELAND deliver her next budget? On this, our correspondents were split largely between March and April. Keller and Heimpel both observed that March includes only a single sitting week, squeezed by March break for most school-aged kids on one end, and Easter weekend on the other. That calendar leaves little room for pre-budget posturing in the House, and pushes mandatory debate and votes on the budget plan back to at least April 8. A momentum killer. How does April look? MPs sit for the second and third week of the month before heading to their ridings for the fourth — space for a five-day budget roadshow — and returning to the House for four potential days of debate and all-important confidence votes. Earnscliffe's Richer is certain of a March budget. She expects Liberal spending restraint to "put more pressure" on the Liberal-NDP deal (and give the New Dems an opening to differentiate their own vision). → Magic 8 Ball: We asked if the budget will come in March. Prediction: "Outlook good." We also asked about April: "Outlook good." For your radar MEGA-CALENDAR — Tuesday's Playbook unveiled POLITICO Canada's 2024 calendar of must-watch moments and must-note anniversaries. We asked you to fill in the blanks with events we missed. A sampling of your additions: April 10-12: The Progress Summit, hosted by the Broadbent Institute at the Delta Hotel in Ottawa, which overlaps with the Public Policy Forum's Growth Summit in Toronto. (We're still waiting for the official announcement of dates for the Canada Strong and Free Networking Conference, aka the annual event formerly known as the Manning Conference.) April 23-29: Ottawa will host the fourth meeting of the U.N. Environment Programme's Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on Plastic Pollution — a multilateral effort to "develop an international legally binding instrument on plastic pollution, including in the marine environment." June 6-9: Calgary will host the Federation of Canadian Municipalities annual conference. July 15-17: Nova Scotia Premier TIM HOUSTON chairs the Council of the Federation's summer meeting in Halifax, where premiers trade notes and plot fed-prov strategy. Oct. 21-Nov. 1: The COP16 conference on biodiversity will be hosted by Colombia. — Mi calendar, su calendar: We're updating this epic almanac almost every day. Keep sending us entries we haven't noticed. Add our cal to your Google calendar or download the file for other clients. You can also view it in your browser. Where the leaders are — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is on a family vacation in Jamaica. This is the final day allotted for the trip in his holiday itinerary posted late last year. Trudeau's office clarified to the Canadian Press that the family is staying "at no cost at a location owned by family friends." The House of Commons is back Jan. 29; the Senate returns Feb. 6. TALK OF THE TOWN TRIVIA CUP — Today's the day to sign up for the First Annual POLITICO Canada Trivia Cup. Your Playbook host is manning a registration desk today at the Metropolitain from 2-4 p.m. Arrive early and avoid the possibility of ending up on a waitlist! — What's all this about? We're hosting five qualifying rounds from January to May — each targeted at a specific Hill demographic: → Lobbyists on Wednesday, Jan. 24 → Ministers and their staff on Monday, Feb. 5 → Journalists on Tuesday, March 5 → Public servants on Tuesday, April 23 → MPs and senators on Monday, May 6 Each team will be capped at six players. We'll accept entrants with “former” appended to their relevant occupation. The first 15 teams to sign up in each category will secure a table. The top 4 teams at each qualifier will advance to the championship on Monday, June 3. Follow this link for all the details. — Second chance: Can't make it today? We'll have another registration session Thursday, Jan. 11 from 2-4 p.m. No guarantees on table availability. MEDIA ROOM — “The resignation of Harvard’s CLAUDINE GAY leaves little doubt that there will be no truce in America’s culture wars,” POLITICO’s BRAKKTON BOOKER writes off the top of The Recast newsletter. — Two key organizers of the “Freedom Convoy” are in court today. DAVID FRASER of CBC News sets the scene. — Canadian journalist KATHY GANNON, a former AP news director, argues in the NYT that it’s time for America to go back to Afghanistan. — In case you missed it: Maclean’s guide to 2024. — Top of POLITICO this hour: U.S. Supreme Court’s treatment of DONALD TRUMP could play decisive role in 2024. — The federal government has spent millions to encourage companies that want to generate green power from the Bay of Fundy, DAVID REEVELY reports for The Logic. The catch: The bay is also home to at-risk species, and the rules meant to protect them have led at least one would-be tidal developer to bankruptcy. — Liberal MP RENÉ ARSENEAULT wants to do away with an oath to the king for Canadian parliamentarians. MPs will debate his private member's bill (C-347) this month, CBC's JOHN PAUL TASKER reports. — Advance people are the real campaigners: A pro from President JOE BIDEN’s team tells all to POLITICO’s Magazine. PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: HBD to former MP YASMIN RATANSI and to EMILY THORNE of Crestview Strategy. Send birthdays to ottawaplaybook@politico.com. Spotted: A description of Energy Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON's binder of holiday reading material: 3.5 inches thick, 3.3 kilograms, 30 tabs plus three untabbed items, three hours to print it all (tree count: unknown), and one hour for a team of three to assemble it. The Canadian Embassy in Washington, looking for a new contractor to handle landscaping and grounds maintenance. Work applies to the ambassador’s official residence, too. PressProgress editor LUKE LEBRUN, assembling a jumpcut of all the speeches in which PIERRE POILIEVRE likens electricians to kite-flying BEN FRANKLINs … Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH going full hyperbole, likening a national plastics registry to one for handguns. Conservative MP LESLYN LEWIS, advocating for a House e-petition that calls on Canada to leave the U.N. and its constituent associations — including the World Health Organization, a regular Lewis target. The petition has attracted 60,000-plus signatures. “Bringing far-right American-Style politics to Canada,” on International Development Minister AHMED HUSSEN’s on-trend ins and outs for 2024 social card (it’s an out for him). PMO adviser NASSER HAIDAR, celebrating his brand new Canadian citizenship. Movers and shakers: Former CBC News investigative journalist DIANA SWAIN is now offering media training through her new outfit: Diana Swain Strategies. Sen. RENÉ CORMIER is looking for a parliamentary affairs adviser … The Austrian Embassy in Ottawa is searching for a consular officer to start immediately. Media mentions: KRISTA HESSEY is joining Global News’ enterprise and investigative team. PROZONE Our latest policy newsletter for Pro subscribers from KYLE DUGGAN, SUE ALLAN and ARI HAWKINS: 2024 in Canadian tech policy. In other headlines for Pros:  — Russia-China partnership prompts new U.S. Arctic strategy. — 4 oil and gas issues to watch in 2024. — FDA baby gadget approvals raise ‘safe sleep’ concerns. — 4 EU countries to jointly buy Patriot missiles in $5.5B NATO-backed deal. — What 2024 has in store for cannabis. TRIVIA Wednesday’s answer: THANH HAI NGO was the first Canadian of Vietnamese origin to serve in the Senate of Canada. Props to MARJORY LEBRETON, KEVIN VUONG, JIM MUNSON, JAYA SCOTT, BOB GORDON, GEORGE SCHOENHOFER, MARCEL MARCOTTE, JOSEPH PLANTA, CHRISTOPHER LALANDE, BOOTS TAYLOR-VAISEY,  ROBERT MCDOUGALL, ETHEL FORESTER, GERMAINE MALABRE, CAMERON RYAN, JIM CAMPBELL and SHAUGHN MCARTHUR. Props + 1 to ARTHUR GAGNON, KATE DALGLEISH, DUANE BRATT and MATT CONLEY.   Today’s question: “You could hear crashing throughout the mountain,” an eyewitness said of an event connected to this date in history. “It sounded like some kind of beast rampaging through the forest that you couldn't see and it was so pitch-black on either side of me, these huge crashes coming from the forest to my left. It was something out of a horror movie.” What was the witness describing? Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, Luiza Ch. Savage and Willa Plank.   Follow us on Twitter Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey Sue Allan @susan_allan Maura Forrest @MauraForrest Kyle Duggan @Kyle_Duggan Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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