Will natural gas crash Biden's climate party?

Presented by The American Petroleum Institute (API): Your guide to the political forces shaping the energy transformation

Jan 22, 2024 View in browser   By Zach Bright Presented by The Cumberland Fossil Plant is located southwest of Clarksville, Tennessee. | Tennessee Valley Authority President Joe Biden wants to eliminate carbon pollution from the power grid by 2035, and his administration is pouring many billions of dollars into clean energy sources like solar and wind. But one of the year’s biggest trends in the power world is a growing clamor for a fossil fuel — natural gas. And nowhere is that more clear than in the Southeast. The region’s population is surging, electric cars and trucks are crowding onto the roads, and all the while, grid operators have to keep the lights on. Renewables are coming online, but three key electric utilities — including the country’s largest public power provider — want gas to be a bedrock fuel. That could complicate Biden’s climate targets, as I write today. A big build-out anywhere could threaten the fight to cut climate-warming emissions everywhere, even if gas is a less potent pollution source than coal. The Tennessee Valley Authority, Duke Energy and Georgia Power are eyeing record gas additions — totaling more than 12,000 megawatts — to replace coal-fired generation. In comparison, the U.S. added an estimated 8,600 MW of new gas-fired generation last year. Each of their plans is up for review by regulators this year. Simon Mahan, executive director of the Southern Renewable Energy Association, has reviewed utilities’ resource planning processes in the region for more than a decade. “They've never done anything like this,” he told me. Look to Georgia Power, and you’ll see what he means. The utility put out an update to its resource plan two years early, after its demand projections for winter 2030 soared by almost 1,700 percent (not a typo!). Georgia Power CEO Kim Greene said the shift is so pronounced because new industries are coming to the state — bringing with them “large electrical demands at both a record scale and velocity.” That’s actually partly because of Biden’s landmark climate law. The state ranks first among beneficiaries of the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, having procured more than $15.3 billion in investments. And it’s welcomed numerous solar factories and electric automakers, which have driven up power demands. Gas is the main resource Georgia Power thinks it can get online fast enough to meet its demand projections, said Bryan Jacob, the Southern Alliance for Clean Energy’s solar program director. But clean energy advocates and environmentalists say utilities have options beyond doubling down on fossil fuels, the main drivers of climate change. The utility should look at increasing transmission capacity in existing corridors, Jacob told me, “before we charge down the path of saying that these fossil-based resources are the only way.”   It's Monday — thank you for tuning in to POLITICO's Power Switch. I'm your host, Zach Bright. Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to zbright@eenews.net.   A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API): U.S. LNG Keeps the Lights On: At a time of geopolitical turmoil and record high coal use around the world, halting permits for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects would be a misstep that would damage America’s economic and national security interests. Let’s keep the Lights On with a natural resource that continues to play a big role in building a lower-carbon future.   Listen to today’s POLITICO Energy podcast Today in POLITICO Energy’s podcast: Ben Lefebvre breaks down how even though the pipeline industry is booming, U.S. regulators are struggling to keep up.   YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics.      Power Centers Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at the COP28 climate summit on Dec. 2, 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. | Kamran Jeebreili/AP What's in a number? Vice President Kamala Harris has hit on a number to highlight the Biden administration's climate agenda: $1 trillion. The number adds together a handful of legislative victories, going beyond the $369 billion climate law and including provisions in laws that boosted funding for manufacturing, infrastructure and federal agencies. The aim is to get voters excited about reelecting Biden — particularly young voters, who are more likely to care about climate change, writes Timothy Cama. Harris has quoted the figure in a series of recent speeches, including at last month's COP 28 climate conference in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. "President Biden and I made the largest climate investment in the history of our country and, some have said, the world: roughly $1 trillion over the next 10 years," she said. Faster help is on the way The Federal Emergency Management Agency's new rules for disaster aid reflect the understanding that people who live through disasters need help and they need it quickly, Thomas Frank writes. The application process for disaster aid had been complex, and 46 percent of applicants had been rejected since 2002, records show. The agency says revisions to the process “will lead to a larger pool of eligible disaster survivors receiving disaster assistance funds.” A (wind) hearing by any other name Opponents of offshore wind met in Ocean City, Maryland, this weekend to cheer stumbles in the industry and galvanize their work against it, Heather Richards writes. Led by Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), the meeting wasn't a House hearing but included a similar roundup of testimony from people talking about wind's effects on fisheries, radar and sound. Missing from the event: Democrats and wind industry leaders. Bonnie Brady, executive director of the Long Island Commercial Fishing Association, asserted at the gathering that her industry would lose access to fisheries and be "gutted" by the build-out of offshore wind. But US Wind, a developer planning two wind projects off the Maryland coast, said in a statement that most Marylanders support offshore wind development. “In the many conversations we’ve had across the state, the support for offshore wind comes through loud and clear,” said Nancy Sopko, the company's senior director of external affairs. “Offshore wind is a win for the environment, a win for the economy, and a win for the future.”   A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API):   In Other News BYD's upmarket moves: China-based BYD, the world's biggest maker of electric vehicles, is adding luxury EVs to its portfolio under the name Yangwang as it looks to new export markets. ABC and 1.5: New York is considering joining neighboring New Jersey in adding climate change curriculum to schools.   SUBSCRIBE TO CALIFORNIA CLIMATE: Climate change isn’t just about the weather. It's also about how we do business and create new policies, especially in California. So we have something cool for you: A brand-new California Climate newsletter. It's not just climate or science chat, it's your daily cheat sheet to understanding how the legislative landscape around climate change is shaking up industries across the Golden State. Subscribe now to California Climate to keep up with the changes.     Subscriber Zone A showcase of some of our best subscriber content. United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain raises his fist at a rally in Detroit on Sept. 15, 2023. | Paul Sancya, File/AP The United Auto Workers laid out the terms Monday for earning its political endorsement, including support for a just transition to EVs. A new analysis shows the relationship between cities with many parking lots and extreme heat and rain. Alaska lawmakers filed a friend of the court brief supporting the Biden administration's approval of ConocoPhillips' Willow project. That's it for today, folks! Thanks for reading.   A message from The American Petroleum Institute (API): President Biden committed to sending American liquefied natural gas (LNG) overseas to our allies. Yet recent reports indicate the administration may abandon this promise. Halting U.S. LNG approvals would put our allies at risk. This should not be controversial. In fact, one of the best things we can do for the environment is to send more U.S. LNG overseas to displace coal and help cut global carbon emissions. And it’s not just pipelines and LNG. Other energy projects like wind and solar can take four to six years to clear federal environmental reviews. These permitting delays could also impact emerging technologies like carbon capture and hydrogen – where our industry is leading in innovation. Someone can get a college degree before an energy project is permitted, much less built. Put simply - we can’t unleash these technologies if we can’t build them. Instead, let’s keep the Lights On.     Follow us on Twitter Arianna Skibell @ariannaskibell   Follow us

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