RESHAPING THE POLICY DEBATES — The Biden era began amid talk of a more humane border policy and a rollback of Trump policies, not just on immigration but on trade and a range of other policy areas. But that was a different time, and Joe Biden was a different president. Never was it clearer than today, when Biden signed the most restrictive immigration order of any modern Democrat, setting the stage for much of the southern border to close at midnight. After taking a pounding from Trump over immigration and flailing on the issue in the polls, the Biden administration will seal the U.S.’s southern border entirely once illegal crossings reach 2,500 people per day. And with daily totals already exceeding that number within the past week, it will go into effect right away. The border will only re-open to asylum seekers after the number of illegal crossings dips under 1,500 per day for a sustained period of time. The severe regulations are similar in scope to former President Donald Trump’s November 2018 decision to suspend asylum rights on the southern border, an initiative that was ultimately blocked in court. It’s the latest reminder of former President Donald Trump’s success in reframing the political debate around hot-button issues — and Biden’s need to reshape administration policy in response. Even at a time when Trump should be at his weakest, on the heels of his hush money conviction on 34 counts, Biden’s diminished position in the polls has forced a more reactive approach. Despite years of debate within the Biden administration, they’ve largely kept the massive Trump tariffs on China in place out of fear of providing Trump with an opening to attack. The political imperatives are not just Biden’s own: A group of Midwestern Senate Democrats, joined by Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, sent a letter to Biden in early May asking him to raise tariffs even further on China. In response, Biden announced targeted increases of some of the China tariffs, including on electric vehicles, semiconductors and some steel and aluminum products. It might be a more targeted approach than his predecessor, but it still underscores that the trade war with China has only escalated since Biden came into office. The need to placate the industrial Midwest — and maintain the integrity of the Blue Wall that is Biden’s best shot at reelection — colors other Trump-adjacent Biden policies. When Japan-based Nippon Steel announced the purchase of U.S. Steel in December for over $14 billion, it could have been a chance for Biden to take a victory lap. His infrastructure package and Inflation Reduction Act turned U.S. Steel from a husk of what it once was back into an asset worth billions. Instead, though, fears of a Japanese company buying an American institution — and Trump’s promise to block the deal — led Biden to announce his opposition to the deal months after Trump did. At the heart of these policies is a political vulnerability on the issues polls suggest are of greatest concern to voters — such as border security and the economy. According to Gallup, a plurality of Americans believe immigration is the most important facing the country today. A new Marquette Law School poll shows voters trust Trump more on immigration and border security by a whopping 27 points. Voters trust Trump more on the economy by 21 points. It’s a far cry from 2021, when Biden took office fresh off a thorough popular-vote whipping of Trump and the flipping of five key swing states across the Midwest and the Sun Belt. Today, Biden trails Trump in most national polls and all across the swing state landscape. That political reality has led to the implementation of policies — from imposing further tariffs on Chinese goods to protecting U.S. manufacturing from foreign competition to border security — that wouldn’t have been out of place in Trump’s first term. Biden, of course, has plenty of areas of vast disagreement with Republicans. His administration insists that their immigration regulations are different from Trump’s; a senior administration official said about Biden’s immigration order, “There are several differences between the actions that we are taking today and Trump-era policies. The Trump administration attacked almost every facet of the immigration system and did so in a shameful and inhumane way.” Even some Democrats, though, are conflating the two. “We should be distinguishing ourselves from Donald Trump on immigration,” Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), the chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said. “We should be offering the contrast.” The contrast is likely to become clearer now that Trump is no longer confined to a Manhattan courtroom and can spend more time on the campaign trail. He’s already promising even more radical policy departures on trade and immigration. And if that’s the case, and Biden’s pivot toward Trumpism helps lock down Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — or perhaps insulates him in Arizona, where a possible ballot measure on immigration could put the issue front and center — many of his critics inside the party will likely forgive him. Even if one plank of his immigration platform looks a lot like part of Trump’s first go at the issue. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh.
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