'Out of touch and out of gas'

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Jun 26, 2024 View in browser   By Zi-Ann Lum Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Ottawa Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it. In today's edition: → JUSTIN TRUDEAU says he hears your concerns. → ANNE MCGRATH shares a status update on the Liberal-NDP deal. → GERALD BUTTS contemplates the power of algorithms in the creation of tribes. DRIVING THE DAY Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, shown last year on the Hill, says voter frustration is loud and clear. | AP SEEN THIS BEFORE — When the Liberals were wiped out of Alberta and Saskatchewan in the 2019 election, a re-elected Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU looked into cameras in the ballroom of Montreal’s Fairmont Queen Elizabeth hotel and offered words of affirmation. “I’ve heard your frustration and I want to be there to support you,” he said. Trudeau served up something similar Tuesday after the Liberals were whupped by the Conservatives in Toronto-St. Paul’s, losing a decades-long hold on the downtown riding. “This was obviously not the result we wanted, but I want to be clear that I hear your concerns and frustrations,” the PM said in a statement released shortly before he repeated it for cameras at an event in Vancouver where he didn’t take media questions. → More on that from POLITICO’s KYLE DUGGAN: Trudeau digs in. Trudeau won’t be able to duck post-by-election questions forever, but whether his words are drawn from intentionally uninteresting talking points or are instead ad-libbed will be his prerogative. In Toronto-St. Paul’s, the Tories may have discovered a winning formula that engages beyond affordability anxieties with the goal of booting Liberals from some swing ridings. — The differentiator: As long as Israel’s war on Hamas in Gaza remains a ballot-box issue, it will continue to split voters across parties and generations of Liberal supporters. And that’s a problem for Liberal incumbents in 12 other ridings in Ontario and Quebec where Jewish voters make up at least 5 percent of the population. It will certainly be a factor in York Centre when Cabmin YA'ARA SAKS defends her seat against Conservative ROMAN BABER, whose mug has already been seen on a billboard in the riding. Baber was also spotted at Cafe Landwer, an Israeli-owned business in Spadina Village where Conservative DON STEWART held his byelection party Monday evening. The cafe took on political symbolism after clips of pro-Palestinian protesters chanting “boycott” outside its doors went viral weeks after the Oct. 7 attacks in Israel. — Coming soon: “We look forward to the rematch,” posted Liberal candidate LESLIE CHURCH, in a statement about her 590-vote loss. → Related reading: PAUL WELLS eats his pre-write words and bastes the loss into a patchwork of other Liberal self-owns. The upshot for Church, DPM CHRYSTIA FREELAND’s former chief of staff, is that she has a pile of signs to reuse. — Burden of urban: As AARON WHERRY of CBC News notes in a Morning Consult poll, every G7 leader is unpopular these days. “At 30 percent, Trudeau actually ranks third among that group. Such widespread dissatisfaction suggests larger forces are at play — the lingering trauma of a pandemic, the strain and uncertainty caused by inflation, the corrosive influence of social media, a divisive war in the Middle East,” he writes. — Another asterisk: When a general election kicks into gear, voters will have a buffet of policy promises — new ideas, potentially — actual platforms to consider. As the Star’s SUSAN DELACOURT notes, citing MATT GURNEY, this could prove interesting when Conservatives shift strategies to defend their Toronto-St. Paul’s win. Reminder that urban voters are more likely to support the carbon price — a wedge issue Conservatives have been weaponizing to solidify their appeal in rural ridings.  — Cue the obvious: Trudeau has spent the past few months on the receiving end of questions about his waning popularity. “The prime minister is committed to leading us into the next election,” Freeland told reporters on Tuesday. “And he has our support.” The listening exercise continues. HALLWAY CONVERSATION INSIDE THE MIND OF INSIDERS — Like a lot of people, NDP National Director ANNE MCGRATH was shocked by the results in Toronto-St. Paul’s. “It's clearly a message to the Liberal government that people are feeling like they're not getting what they need from this government,” McGrath said Tuesday in a phone interview. The NDP hold the riding provincially so Playbook was curious how party HQ is taking stock of the results — and how it’s shaping longer-term election plans to target Liberal seats in Halifax, St. John’s East, Toronto-Danforth, Toronto Davenport and the Edmonton area. This conversation has been edited for length and clarity. How are you interpreting the results in Toronto-St. Paul’s? I personally was a bit shocked by the result because there had been signals from both the Liberals and the Conservatives that the Liberals were going to win. It’s a very long-time Liberal stronghold — the Liberals have survived those ups and downs in that particular riding. Everyone knows affordability is a key issue on voters’ minds right now and they're seeing their grocery prices continue to rise. It continues to be next to impossible to find affordable housing — that's what's on voters’ minds. And they don't see the action they need from this Liberal government on those things. I was just revisiting the 2022 Mississauga-Lakeshore byelection — tracking GTA ballot-box issues then and now. Capital gains, Israel-Gaza … There's definitely some particular ones in Toronto-St Paul's. And you're right, those are two I would for sure identify. Can you identify other new issues that divided the vote — ones that are more hot topics now than in December 2022 when the Liberals won that GTA riding? It's a combination of the things everybody is worried about, as I was saying before about affordability, cost of living, the kind of feeling the Liberal government is out of touch and out of gas. There was a very strong desire for change. Despite the fact it seems the local candidate was trying to distance herself somewhat, still, people wanted to send that message. There's a lot of economic anxiety, worry about families, all of those kinds of things. One would imagine it would be a bit of a wakeup call for the government. I'm sure they will have a lot of thinking to do about what happens next. Is it also a wakeup call for the NDP? You’re bound to the Liberals by SACA . That perception on the ground that the Liberals are out of touch, out of gas — what does this mean for the fate and durability of that deal? The only things people are getting that brings any relief come from the things we've pushed the government to do. Things like dental care, free birth control, diabetes medication and devices. If you listen to a Cabinet minister, for instance, talking about things they've accomplished, they're all things we pushed them to do. For the NDP, we have to keep our eye on the ball in terms of making sure we’re working for Canadians and getting things Canadians need. There are other by-elections coming up in places like LaSalle-Émard-Verdun in Montreal, where [NDP Leader] JAGMEET SINGH is knocking on doors and mainstreeting with our candidate. Halifax is another one potentially coming up. We're going to be campaigning hard. And of course, Elmwood-Transcona is a seat that was held by us, where we have a great candidate, a great team, lots of enthusiasm and energy and a newly elected NDP government. Toronto-St. Paul's definitely sent a signal. But for us, it was a long-time Liberal seat. I will point out to you that the NDP never came in second in that riding. But it’s interesting the riding is held provincially by the NDP and now federally by Conservatives. You mentioned the Liberals have been listing their wins, taking credit for dental care, diabetes medication and devices — so you already have those NDP wins. What's the disadvantage of cutting from the SACA deal early? [Laughter.] I'm not breaking any news to you when I say that one of the biggest issues with the Liberal government is implementation. We've had to push very hard. If we had sort of declared victory when the dental care started to roll out a couple years ago, we would have been very mistaken. The resistance to actually rolling out these programs in a way that actually meets the needs and meets the test, has been pretty strong. We have to really, really hold them to account all the time to make sure we're actually getting these things out the door. Where the leaders are — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in British Columbia where at noon local time in the Nemaiah Valley he’ll join a community celebration of the 10th anniversary of the Tŝilhqot’in Decision. Cabinet ministers GARY ANANDASANGAREE, PATTY HAJDU and ARIF VIRANI will also attend. — Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Cavendish, Prince Edward Island, where she will join the Royal Canada Mint as it unveils a coin honoring LUCY MAUD MONTGOMERY. The ceremony takes place at 2 p.m. island time. — Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE has not released his public itinerary. — Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET will be in Drummondville, Quebec, to headline a cocktail fundraiser for his party at the Galerie d’art Solange Lebel. — Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY is in New Brunswick, touring with provincial campaign manager JO-ANN ROBERTS.  DULY NOTED — Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY is in Mexico City to meet with president-elect CLAUDIA SHEINBAUM and her incoming counterpart JUAN RAMÓN. — Joly’s Parliamentary Secretary ROB OLIPHANT is in Paraguay to attend the General Assembly of the Organization of American States. 10 a.m. Immigration Minister MARC MILLER will hold a presser in Montreal to discuss “investments in Budget 2024.” 1:30 p.m. Governor General MARY SIMON will preside over a ceremony to accept the credentials from China's ambassador-designate DI WANG, Congo’s ambassador-designate APPOLINAIRE AYA and Uzbekistan’s ambassador-designate FURKAT SIDIKOV. 5 p.m. Liberals are throwing a fundraiser for PASCALE ST-ONGE in Bromont, Quebec. 2024 WATCH Gerald Butts, shown here in his days on the Hill, says blame for polarization can be pointed to social media companies. | Dave Chan/Getty Images LESSONS FOR CANADA — Eurasia Group games out political risks. And when it comes to tech, Vice Chair GERALD BUTTS sees a lot of them. A former adviser to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Butts joins the “POLITICO Tech” pod today to talk about the global competition around AI and tech tensions between the U.S. and Canada. He also spoke with host STEVEN OVERLY about the odds and stakes in the U.S. presidential election. “It’s a coin toss,” he said of the chances that former U.S. President DONALD TRUMP will be returned to the White House. The most important variable in the race is structural polarization, he said. “Social media — the tech companies — bear a huge amount of responsibility.” He added that conditions have only deteriorated since ELON MUSK bought Twitter. — Quotes of note: “Owners of these platforms are actively putting their thumb on the scale of politics and pretty clearly directing their not insignificant algorithmic power to create tribes amongst citizens,” Butts said. “Ever since social media, half of the United States has hated the other half of the United States. And more than that, they think each half thinks the other half is a bigger threat to the United States than anybody outside the United States.” Listen to the conversation here. — In related reading: From POLITICO’s ISABELLA RAMÍREZ: What to know about the first 2024 presidential debate. MEDIA ROOM Ahead of today's hearing, journalists were given a rare glimpse of journalist Evan Gershkovich. | AP — The trial of American journalist EVAN GERSHKOVICH in Russia began today in the first espionage case against a Western journalist since the Cold War, POLITICO'S EVA HARTOG reports. — Former Liberal MP FRANK BAYLIS confirms to RAFFY BOUDJIKANIAN of CBC News that he has been approached for a leadership run. — From POLITICO's NAHAL TOOSI this morning: "Foreign leaders have learned their lesson on taking Trump "seriously versus literally." — CTV News reports that Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH says her province will opt out of the federal dental plan. — In The Narwhal, FATIMA SYED investigates Enbridge’s lobbying activities in Ontario municipalities — and efforts to avoid a business “death spiral.” — In Maclean’s, JORDAN MICHAEL SMITH looks at how Canada is coping with a massive surge in global asylum seekers. — “Trudeau keeps giving Canadians policies to study instead of stories to dream,” COLIN HORGAN, a former speechwriter for the PM, writes in the Star. PROZONE Our latest policy newsletter for Pro subscribers from NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY and SUE ALLAN: Inflation update adds to Liberal woes. In other news for Pro readers: — Brazil tees up global billionaire tax for G20 meeting. — U.S. Supreme Court may overturn major environmental precedent. — Microsoft faces fresh warning in Teams competition probe. — U.S. payouts start in first-of-its-kind ‘forever chemicals’ fund. — China, EU agree to start talks on electric vehicle subsidies. PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: HBD to former Quebec premier PHILIPPE COUILLARD and journalist and author VICTOR MALAREK. HBD + 1 to TASHA KHEIRRIDIN. Spotted: FELIPE ALFARO, policy adviser to Labor and Seniors Minister SEAMUS O’REGAN, celebrating his new Canadian citizenship. Noted: The Kremlin banning 81 media outlets, including POLITICO, in retaliation against the EU’s ban on Russia-linked media outlets. Former B.C. Premier JOHN HORGAN has been diagnosed with cancer for the third time and is in a Berlin hospital, B.C.’s health minister said Tuesday. Horgan has taken a leave from his current position as Canada’s ambassador to Germany to receive care. Movers and shakers: There are some changes afoot in Energy Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON’s office: SANDY SCHEMBRI is leaving his post as policy director for net-zero energy; SAMIR KASSAM is now director of policy “for all files;” KAITLYN CLEARY started this week as Wilkinson’s deputy director of policy. Labour Minister SEAMUS O’REGAN confirmed the following four reappointments to the Canada Industrial Relations Board: SYLVIE GUILBERT, ROLAND HACKL, DANIEL THIMINEUR and LISA ADDARIO. CINDY TERMORSHUIZEN has a new title: Deputy minister for the G7 summit and personal representative of the PM for the G7 and G20 summits. CHRISTOPHER MACLENNAN previously was the PM’s personal representative for the G20 summit. A statement from the PMO confirmed he’ll continue in his role as deputy minister of international development. In memoriam: The Norwegian embassy has confirmed the country’s ambassador to Canada, TRINE JØRANLI ESKEDAL, died in Norway last week due to illness. WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY 9 a.m. The Canadian Counselling and Psychotherapy Association will hold a presser in West Block to acknowledge the federal government's decision to eliminate the GST and HST on counselling and psychotherapy services in regulated provinces. TRIVIA Tuesday’s answer: The National Research Council operates the atomic clocks that are Canada's official time source. Props to COLLEEN MARTIN, LAURA PAYTON, ADAM SMITH, JENN KEAY, FERNANDO MELO, JOSEPH PLANTA, RUTHA ASTRAVAS, JENI ARMSTRONG, LORETTA O’CONNOR, JOHN ECKER, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, ALYSON FAIR, LAURA JARVIS, GORDON RANDALL, DARRYL DAMUDE, ROBERT MCDOUGALL and MALCOLM MCKAY.  Wednesday’s question: Who built the original estate now used by Canada’s prime ministers at Harrington Lake? Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Writing Playbook tomorrow: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY. Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan and Luiza Ch. Savage. Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.   Follow us on Twitter Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey Sue Allan @susan_allan Kyle Duggan @Kyle_Duggan Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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