What to watch in today's primaries in New York, Colorado and elsewhere

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Jun 25, 2024 View in browser   By Madison Fernandez Presented by LG Ad Solutions With help from Isabella Ramírez. TOP LINE Major battles over the future of both parties come to a head in key primaries on Tuesday. For the Republican Party, it’s the latest in a long-running fight: Will the caucus be full of potential rabble-rousers who could make governing even more difficult than it is already, or made up of those more in line with an establishment that sees governing as a top priority? Rep. Jamaal Bowman speaks during a campaign event on June 24 in Mount Vernon, New York, with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Rep. Ayanna Pressley. | Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images In the interest of maintaining the majority, House leadership and former President Donald Trump have largely been on the same page with endorsements this cycle. But Colorado’s 5th District, a safe red seat, is an exception — Trump is backing embattled Colorado Republican Party Chair Dave Williams, while Speaker Mike Johnson is supporting conservative commentator Jeff Crank. Democrats are grappling with their own intraparty conflicts. In the safe blue New York 16th District, a high-dollar primary challenge to the Squad’s Rep. Jamaal Bowman is the latest example of the Democratic Party’s divisions over the war in Gaza. Elsewhere in the state, Democrats are picking their nominees to take on Republicans in battleground races that will play a major role in determining control of the House. Here are the races to watch today: — New York: Incumbents have proved hard to unseat this cycle. But Bowman could be the first Democrat to lose a reelection bid this year. The two-term incumbent has to overcome his public blunders and a barrage of spending from outside groups to beat George Latimer, a popular county executive. The contentious race is the biggest bet so far for the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, which has dropped millions in primaries on both sides of the aisle this year. And while Bowman’s race won’t affect the chamber’s majority — the winner would cruise to victory in November in the deep-blue seat — control could be determined elsewhere in New York this fall, and Tuesday’s will set those battleground races. Two contested Democratic primaries are taking place in the 1st and 22nd Districts to take on Republican Reps. Nick LaLota and Brandon Williams, respectively. In the 1st District on Long Island, former CNN anchor John Avlon and Nancy Goroff, a former professor who unsuccessfully ran for Congress in 2020, are facing off in an increasingly contentious and expensive primary. Farther upstate, Williams will find out whether his challenger in this district that President Joe Biden won in 2020 will be state Sen. John Mannion or town councilor Sarah Klee Hood, who came in second place in the Democratic primary during the midterms. A handful of other House battlegrounds don’t have primaries, but will be competitive in November. Polls close at 9 p.m. EST. — Colorado: GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert abandoned her 3rd District and is now running in the 4th District, a deep red seat that former Rep. Ken Buck left earlier this year. There are two contests on the ballot today: the special election to replace Buck for the rest of the year and the primary for the full term starting in 2025. Boebert chose not to run in the special election so she wouldn’t have to vacate her current seat. (Greg Lopez, Republicans’ special election nominee, is not running for the full term.) A half-dozen candidates are running in the GOP primary field, and Boebert has a strong financial advantage, as well as the coveted endorsement from Trump. Democrat Trisha Calvarese, a former congressional and campaign staffer, will face Lopez in the special election. She’s also running for the full term, where she’s up against Ike McCorkle and John Padora, both of whom have her beat on the fundraising front. In Boebert’s old seat, Democrat Adam Frisch — a strong fundraiser who came less than one point away from unseating her two years ago — is attacking Jeff Hurd, establishment Republicans’ preferred pick, in an effort to boost Republican Ron Hanks. Hanks has a controversial past that could put into play what might otherwise be an uncompetitive seat. And that’s not the only primary meddling going on in Colorado. Conservatives for American Excellence and America Leads Action, two super PACs that have played in safe-seat Republican primaries across the country this cycle in an attempt to thwart potential troublemakers, have dropped close to $2 million combined in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Doug Lamborn, boosting Crank over Williams, the state party chair who has aligned himself closely with Trump. Most critically, the state party endorsed former state Rep. Janak Joshi over state Rep. Gabe Evans, who has the support of national Republicans like Johnson, for the GOP nod to take on Democratic Rep. Yadira Caraveo in the battleground 8th District. Polls close at 9 p.m. EST. — Utah: The Utah Republican Party is backing a handful of Republicans running to the right of incumbents, including state Rep. Phil Lyman, who’s running against Gov. Spencer Cox, and Colby Jenkins, who’s looking to unseat Rep. Celeste Maloy. Maloy can boast having the Trump endorsement, along with the backing of most of her congressional delegation (except Sen. Mike Lee, who’s supporting her opponent). Cox, who has spoken out against the former president, may not have that to rely on, but he is one of the most popular governors in the country. The Trump factor is also prevalent in the race to replace one of his biggest critics: retiring Republican Sen. Mitt Romney. Trump is backing Trent Staggs, a local mayor who also has the state party’s nod in the crowded field. But polling has shown Rep. John Curtis with a lead. There are five Republicans in the contest to succeed Curtis in the red 3rd District, including state Sen. Mike Kennedy, who has the party backing, and self-funding businessperson Case Lawrence. Polls close at 10 p.m. EST. — South Carolina: The power of Trump’s endorsement is once again put to the test in the Republican primary runoff in South Carolina’s 3rd District. Trump-endorsed pastor Mark Burns and nurse practitioner Sheri Biggs, who has the backing of Gov. Henry McMaster, are facing off in the safe red seat to replace retiring Rep. Jeff Duncan, and the winner of today’s race will likely cruise to victory in the fall. Conservatives for American Excellence and America Leads Action have mobilized against Burns. Polls close at 7 p.m. EST. It’s Tuesday. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the Republican National Convention: 20 Days until the Democratic National Convention: 55 Days until the 2024 election: 133   A message from LG Ad Solutions: New study available now: 'The Big Shift: Political Edition' shares our latest survey results for how political and regional differences shape CTV viewing habits. Discover why 63% of viewers now prefer streaming over traditional TV, and which party affiliation is leading the change. The Big Shift has significant implications for how you tailor your media and messaging to reach and engage voters during the most critical phases of the cycle. Download the full report here.   CAMPAIGN INTEL NO GOOD — The high-dollar, contentious primary in VA-05 between Republican Rep. Bob Good and state Sen. John McGuire is too close to call — and is likely heading to a recount. Nearly a week after the primary, The Associated Press said Monday that McGuire led Good by 373 votes out of the more than 62,000 ballots counted, a margin of 0.6 percentage points. Under state law, the second-place candidate can request a recount at their expense, if the margin is less than 1 percentage point, and Good has already indicated that he will do so. It is rare, but not unprecedented, the AP said, for a race like this to shift by a few hundred votes in a recount. Good has 10 days from when the state elections board certifies the result of the election, which is scheduled to take place early next month, to file a petition for a recount. ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Latimer earned an endorsement from Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) on the eve of the primary, the first House Democrat to back him. “We need more commonsense leaders and problem solvers in Congress,” Gottheimer wrote. “I know George will fight hate in all forms, and stand up for the values we all believe in.”  … Sen. Cory Booker is backing Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver in the July 16 special Democratic primary in NJ-10 to replace the late Rep. Donald Payne Jr. (D-N.J.), per the New Jersey Globe’s David Wildstein. IT’S ON — Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and Republican businessperson Eric Hovde will face off in the first televised debate of the Wisconsin Senate race on Friday, Oct. 18, at 7 p.m., the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Jessie Opoien reports. There are other Republicans running for the nomination in August, although Hovde is the heavy favorite. PULL UP A CHAIR — Randy Head, a former state lawmaker, was chosen as the next chair of the Indiana Republican Party. Sen. Mike Braun, the GOP’s gubernatorial nominee, recommended Head — a critical show of unity after party activists chose a different lieutenant governor nominee from the one Braun wanted. … Kristina Karamo may no longer be chair of the Michigan Republican Party, but the drama isn’t over. She is “asking the state Court of Appeals to intervene and reinstall her as chairwoman of the Michigan GOP, less than a month before the Republican national convention and less than five months before the November presidential election,” The Detroit News’ Craig Mauger reports. Former Rep. Pete Hoekstra, who was named chair after a long-running internal fight and a legal battle that kicked Karamo out, said that there was "no time for distractions."   JOIN US ON 6/26 FOR A TALK ON AMERICA’S SUPPLY CHAIN: From the energy grid to defense factories, America’s critical sites and services are a national priority. Keeping them up and running means staying ahead of the threat and protecting the supply chains that feed into them. POLITICO will convene U.S. leaders from agencies, Congress and the industry on June 26 to discuss the latest challenges and solutions for protecting the supply lines into America’s critical infrastructure. REGISTER HERE.     Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories. Presidential Big Board SETTING THE STAGE — In the lead-up to Thursday’s first general election presidential debate between President Joe Biden and Trump, the former president is ramping up his attacks against CNN, which is hosting the debate. CNN’s Kasie Hunt cut off Trump spokesperson Karoline Leavitt’s microphone during an interview on Monday after Leavitt called moderators Dana Bash and Jake Tapper “biased” and said Trump is “knowingly going into a hostile environment.” After the exchange, Trump’s team and his allies doubled down on the attacks. BALLOT BATTLE — Having trouble keeping track of which third-party candidates are on the ballot, and where? Check out POLITICO’s new third-party candidate tracker. Currently, libertarian Chase Oliver is in the lead with 38 states.   A message from LG Ad Solutions:   THE CASH DASH OPEN THE BOOKS — Republican Texas Reps. Wesley Hunt and Ronny Jackson are under investigation “for using campaign funds for private club memberships in a potential violation of campaign finance rules,” The Texas Tribune’s Matthew Choi writes. The investigations from the House Ethics Committee were announced in May, but there were few details before this week.   Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more.     AS SEEN ON TV PRESIDENTIAL — Biden features a woman sharing her experience having a miscarriage. She blames Trump for overturning Roe and calls him a “convicted felon.” MO-Gov — Committee for Liberty, a pro-Republican Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft group, ties primary opponent Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe to Biden. WA-Gov — Democratic Attorney General Bob Ferguson is up with his first spot, talking about his family and top issues. WA-03 — Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez is touting “taking on the Biden administration” and promising to “secure the border” in her first spot for her reelection campaign in this Trump-won district. She also leans into her background as the owner of an auto repair shop. STAFFING UP — Democratic Washington state Sen. Emily Randall, who’s running for WA-06, fired her campaign manager Anna Carlson-Ziegler after Jewish Insider reached out to the campaign about her “anti-Israel” social media activity, Jewish Insider’s Marc Rod reports. CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — “I don't find it surprising that an election between an election denier and an election denier would end with one of them denying the election was fair based on conspiracy theories.” — Former Rep. Denver Riggleman, whom Good unseated in 2020, on the VA-05 primary.   A message from LG Ad Solutions: New study available now: 'The Big Shift: Political Edition' shares fresh data from our latest survey on TV viewing behaviors split by political affiliation and region. Findings revealed that 63% of viewers now favor streaming platforms over traditional TV, with some distinct differences between Democrats, Republicans and Independents. Understand the dynamics of how voters across affiliation are engaging with content on Connected TV and which types of ads resonate the most. With 66% of viewers adjusting their streaming subscriptions last year, and a clear preference for relevant advertising among the majority, the implications for political marketers are substantial. Get ready for crunch time with actionable insights to maximize your impact with the voters your campaigns want to reach. Download 'The Big Shift: Political Edition' here.     Follow us on Twitter Steven Shepard @politico_steve Zach Montellaro @zachmontellaro Ally Mutnick @allymutnick Madison Fernandez @madfernandez616   Follow us

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