Canada’s shaky path to 2 percent

A daily look inside Canadian politics and power.

Jul 26, 2024 View in browser   By Kyle Duggan, Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Zi-Ann Lum Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Ottawa Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let’s get to it. In today's edition: → Playbook kicks the tires on the roadmap to NATO’s spending target. → Inside the room with Canada’s premiers. → Who’s up, who’s down. FIRST THINGS FIRST JASPER DEVASTATED — Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH choked up during a news briefing Thursday on the wildfires in Jasper. “Jasper and the parks surrounding it have been a source of pride with some of the most beautiful scenery in the world,” Smith said. “We share this sense of loss with all of those who live in the town, who care for it and who have helped build it.” "The ferocity of the fire in Jasper is difficult to comprehend," writes the Globe's KELLY CRYDERMAN. Wildfires burned somewhere from a third to half of the town’s buildings according to early estimates. Smith said hundreds of firefighters will be coming in from Australia, Mexico, South Africa and New Zealand in the coming days to help 1,900 Alberta firefighters, contractors and support staff. — JASON MARKUSOFF of CBC News writes: "There's despair. Anxiety. Grief. Permeating all of it ... Helplessness." — On Thursday: Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU spoke with Smith, and he convened the government’s incident response group with senior Cabinet members and officials to discuss the federal response. — Today: At 11 a.m. Emergency Preparedness Minister HARJIT SAJJAN and Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT will hold a virtual press conference to update Canadians on wildfires in Alberta. DRIVING THE DAY Defense Minister Bill Blair says Canada’s allies understand that the items on its procurement wish list, “inevitably take us beyond 2 percent.” | AP BENEATH THE SURFACE — Months of build up, then weeks of silence. The Liberal government let itself get beat up in the press by its allies right up to the final day of this year’s NATO summit, before Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU announced Canada would meet its defense spending commitment by 2032. But while the PM bought some time with its allies and the government won praise for finally putting a date in the window, experts have their eyebrows raised about how Canada will actually hit the key spending figure. — Kick the can: ANESSA KIMBALL, a professor at Laval University who studies alliance defense spending, said the promise should be taken with a “grain of salt” since this problem will likely fall on another future government to solve. “When it comes to these kinds of large-end procurements, Canada is notoriously delayed. So, I would like to believe that we would get there, but I think we should be a little more realistic.” Carleton University’s STEPHEN SAIDEMAN, director of the Canadian Defence and Security Network, said Canada will “probably not” hit the target of spending 2 percent of GDP on defense in eight years. “I think they'll make a good-faith effort, but I don't think the math is in their favor — unless we have a recession,” he said. “I'm skeptical. Procurement is really hard for any government and this government does not make decisions quickly.” — Lack of details: DAVID PERRY, president of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, was on “The Herle Burly”podcast this week, where he said the government set high expectations by pledging a date, but it still lacks a firm plan backed by committed funds. “The mechanics of how they went about all that were really kind of curious,” Perry told DAVID HERLE. “They finally came in and made that commitment, which is important, but there's still basically all the work to do to get to something credible and verifiable.” Defense Minister BILL BLAIR told Playbook after the summit that Canada’s allies know the capabilities Canada is in the market for, such as a dozen submarines, “inevitably take us beyond 2 percent.” “Obviously, I need to do it faster, but the reality is it takes that long to actually produce them and deliver them, and it also enables us the time within our own national fiscal framework to make sure the money is available to get the job done.” — Sinking feeling: But that’s going to be a drawn-out process and may take longer than that. “It's not like you're walking into a Walmart and there's a whole bunch of submarines just to put on your cart,” Saideman said. “We probably won't be able to buy most of the subs or maybe even any of the subs before 2032.” — A little rosy: Then there’s the question of how Canada would even staff that many, given its recruitment crisis and current troubles staffing the four Victoria-class subs the Navy already possesses. “I think it'd be more likely to be six than 12,” he added. — Questions on follow through: He’s not the only academic raising questions about the subs pledge. PAUL MITCHELL, professor of defense studies at Canadian Forces College,warns if Canada relies on the subs as a “get-out-of-jail-free card” and repeats past mistakes from how it’s handled its current fleet, the purchase could become a “gigantic white elephant for a navy already struggling with a personnel crisis and the need to modernize its entire fleet structure.” — MIA: STÉFANIE VON HLATKY, a defense researcher and professor at Queen’s University, said the opposition also needs to come up with a credible plan on the target, since an election is coming up in the next year. So far, Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE has treaded carefully on the file, saying he’s “inheriting a dumpster fire when it comes to the budget” and that Canadians are tired of “politicians just announcing that they're going to spend money without figuring out how they're going to pay for it.” “All of the factors have to be aligned,” Hlatky said. “The machinery of procurement has to be fixed. The political dynamics have to be there to put pressure on the government to implement this 2-percent pledge. And then that alliance pressure is not going to go away and is just going to intensify [given the] trends in the international security environment.” Where the leaders are — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is on vacation in B.C. — Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, for the meeting of G20 finance ministers and central bank governors. — Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE, Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET and NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH have not released public itineraries. — Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY takes part in a weekly community civic meeting on Salt Spring Island, B.C. ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY spent last week in Halifax with Canada’s premiers. In his final dispatch, he takes Playbook readers inside the room. SETTING THE TABLE — When the premiers go behind closed doors for summer meetings, they're pretty much alone. The only other people in the room are a notetaker, a host premier staffer, and an aide to the next year's host. No listening room for advisers, no pesky reporters keeping tabs. Only the premiers, their priorities and their personalities. Playbook asked them to describe the table. Prince Edward Island's DENNIS KING said some premiers bring big personalities and others are more reserved. "I wouldn't name names," he says, "but there are some people who want to have an opinion on every issue. There are others who maybe only speak once or twice during the meeting, but the whole crowd is captivated by what they say, because they're articulate and they make a point, and they don't over-talk." Count King among the premiers who picks his spots. — Ice breakers: Just like any meeting, there's small talk off the top. "There's a fair bit of joking around and some laughs that happen around the table," says Manitoba's WAB KINEW, who talks football with Saskatchewan's SCOTT MOE. — Down to business: The summer meeting agenda is negotiated in advance, along with a draft communiqué. Civil servants and political staff develop ideas internally and hammer out shared priorities across borders. Then they walk into the room to hash out the issues — read: gripe about Ottawa — and hone a final text. "Tons of choreography and stage managing ahead of time, and then also some free flowing discussion and improvisation that happens," is how Kinew describes the meeting's rhythm. "The longer-serving premiers seem to be playing a constructive role in terms of bringing the discussion more to a collaborative place," he adds. Moe, who took office in early 2018, is the dean of the group. He faces reelection later this year. Ontario's DOUG FORD, who won his first election a few months after Moe, earned praise from multiple colleagues for carving out space for territories and smaller provinces. 2024 WATCH THE HARRIS PIVOT — As Republicans rev up their campaign against KAMALA HARRIS, they’ve yet to land on a consistent line of attack. They’ve trotted out “terrible,” “horrible,” “nasty,” even “radical left lunatic” — nothing even half as good as “sleepy Joe” or “lyin’ Ted.” POLITICO’s IRIE SENTNER and JARED MITOVICH have more on some of the spaghetti thrown at the wall so far as the GOP fishes around for the magic line. — About 100 days left: Harris doesn’t just have to choose a running mate — she has little time to chart her course to victory, and it might not turn out to be the same path JOE BIDEN was relying on. CHARLIE MAHTESIAN has this look at how her electoral map might differ. — In news this morning: Former President BARACK OBAMA and former first lady MICHELLE OBAMA have thrown their support behind Harris. — More problems, more security: The U.S. Secret Service was already facing a major crisis after the attempted assignation against Trump — now it has another big challenge on its hands: protecting Harris. ANKUSH KHARDORI interviews retired Secret Service agent JEFF JAMES for POLITICO Magazine.   Live briefings, policy trackers, and procedural, industry, and people intelligence from POLITICO Pro Analysis gives you the insights you need to focus your policy strategy this election cycle. Secure your seat.      WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN UP: JUSTIN TRUDEAU, winning some sympathy after being ambushed on his beach vacation with his family by a right-wing media activist. DOWN: TOM CLARK, about to be hauled into partisan firing line at committee over the multimillion-dollar condo Global Affairs Canada purchased in New York. MEDIA ROOM — POLITICO's VICTOR GOURY-LAFFONT and CLEA CAULCUTT report from Paris: "Coordinated arson attack" brings French trains to a halt hours before Olympics opening ceremony." — From CHRISTOPHER NARDI of the National Post: "Poilievre is 'open' to idea of involuntary drug treatment for addicts, but has doubts." — The Star’s ALEX BALLINGALL and RAISA PATEL report Liberal MPs are still pushing for a Cabinet shuffle before fall. — CHRYSTIA FREELAND guest stars on The Economist’s (subscriber only) “Money Talks” podcast in an episode titled “O Canada: policy lessons from North America’s second-largest economy.” — In the LA Times, JENNY JARVIE has lessons learned from Canada’s fight with Meta over the Online News Act. — EVAN SOLOMON writes for GZERO about polling done by DAVID COLETTO of Abacus Data suggesting 39 percent of Canadians worry the U.S. will descend into civil war. PROZONE Catch the latest POLITICO Canada newsletter for Pro subscribers from ZI-ANN LUM: Grief and loss in Jasper. In other news for Pro readers:  — Meet Kamala Harris’ go-to guy on climate.  — Harris veep contender rips JD VANCE on Ukraine. — Russia cracks down on personal phones on the frontline. — U.S. lawmakers push dueling Chevron legislation. — A small federal agency takes a big step to boost climate projects. PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: HBD to RANDY THANTHONG-KNIGHT, Bloomberg's Canadian economy reporter. And to GARY MAR, CEO and president of the Canada West Foundation.  Celebrating Saturday: Former Cabmins PETER KENT and BEV ODA (80!), retired Sens. CAROLYN STEWART OLSEN and CLAUDETTE TARDIF and former MPs COLIN FRASER and SHAWN MURPHY. On Sunday: Liberal MP MARCO MENDICINO; GEORGE YOUNG of Sandstone Group; former MP BOB MILLS. Birthdays, gatherings, social notices for this community: Send them our way. Spotted: Canada’s High Commissioner to the U.K., RALPH GOODALE, getting a glimpse of a taping of “The Diplomat” from his office that overlooks Trafalgar Square. Ambassador DAVID COHEN and SEAN FRASER at the Gordie Howe bridge joining ceremony.WYATT SHARPE at the White House press briefing podium. Movers and shakers: BOB RAE, the face of Canada at the United Nations, has been elected president of the U.N.’s Economic and Social Council for a one-year term. Meanwhile diplomat EVAN CINQ-MARS is leaving Canada’s permanent mission to the U.N. Liberal MP FRANCIS DROUIN will not run for reelection … Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE clocked some face time with his new British counterpart, PETER KYLE. The Liberals have chosen a retired teacher as their candidate for the upcoming Elmwood–Transcona by-election. The Conservatives are fielding electrician COLIN REYNOLDS while the NDP is running local business improvement zone head LEILA DANCE. Media mentions: DAVID BAXTER is now writing for CBC News after almost nine years at Global News until the recent round of layoffs. Another reporter let go by Global, AARON SOUSA, has found greener pastures with The Canadian Press in Edmonton. Farewells: LEWIS LAPHAM, former editor of Harper’s and father-in-law to CAROLINE MULRONEY, has died at 89. NYT has this reflection on his life and work. Send Playbookers tips to ottawaplaybook@politico.com . TRIVIA Thursday’s answer: When LOUIS ST. LAURENT died on July 25, 1973, MITCHELL SHARP announced his death to the House of Commons. Props to FRANCIS BRADLEY, LAURA JARVIS, MALCOLM MCKAY, J.D.M. STEWART, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, BRANDON RUSSELL, GEORGE SCHOENHOFER, KEVIN BOSCH and MARCEL MARCOTTE. Friday’s question: Name the former environment minister who spent the last half of 1966 in Vietnam as a freelance cameraperson/reporter. Answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage. Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.   Follow us on Twitter Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey Sue Allan @susan_allan Kyle Duggan @Kyle_Duggan Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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