Europe debuts a new rocket

How the next wave of technology is upending the global economy and its power structures

Jul 09, 2024 View in browser   By Christine Mui With help from Brendan Bordelon Europe’s new Ariane 6 rocket blasted off Tuesday afternoon, lifting with it the continent’s ambitions to reclaim its autonomy in space activity. It’s become an increasingly important strategic consideration for nations to have sovereign space capabilities — in this case, the ability to launch their satellites without relying on other foreign countries. European countries haven’t had their own launch system since 2023. That's when the European Space Agency retired Ariane 5, the heavy-lift launch vehicle that preceded this one and is best-known for placing the James Webb Space Telescope into orbit. Once, European countries would have been able to make do by using Russia’s Soyuz spacecraft, but they lost access following the invasion of Ukraine. So with years of delays in developing Ariane 6 and the flight failure of another rocket, the bloc’s critical missions that previously flew through the Russian space program found themselves in limbo or turning instead to Elon Musk’s SpaceX. Before the launch, reporters asked ESA officials: Why exactly does Europe need its own system? Couldn’t it collaborate with allies like the U.S. for continuous access to space instead? Caroline Arnoux, head of the Ariane 6 program, said in late June that it initially considered going through other countries — but decided against it.  “It was considered whether we could proceed with collaboration with friends such as the United States,” she said. “Conditions were put on the table. It was ‘okay, but you won't do commercial activities, only institutional.'” Being able to launch a new rocket also maintains Europe’s status in a very selective geopolitical group. In an interview with DFD, space security expert Cassandra Steer pointed out that more than 80 countries around the world have some kind of space program, but only 12 have demonstrated the ability to independently launch their rockets, by her count. “Access to space is part of today's political currency. You can't go without it,” Steer, who leads the Australian Centre for Space Governance, said. “You don't have a stake in the 21st-century geopolitical reality unless you have some access to space, whether that's with allies or independently.” For Europe, keeping that stake is an especially high priority now that the top global players in the launcher space have shifted. Russia and Europe used to dominate the international commercial launch market because they provided reliable and relatively lower-cost systems, while the U.S. was largely driven away from it, according to Scott Pace, director of the Space Policy Institute at George Washington University. Since then, the war in Ukraine effectively sidelined Russia, and U.S. restrictions limit the use of Chinese rockets. SpaceX has swiftly upended the rocket industry with its reusable boosters, making America a leader in private space launches and filling the gap left by these geopolitical developments. “Having options for international launch providers other than SpaceX is important to people,” Pace told DFD. “Among the like-minded countries, the success of Ariane 6 is a good thing, especially in an environment where China and Russia are really not acceptable launch partners anymore.” European authorities are uneasy about SpaceX’s rise but split on how to best secure their interests in response. While certain government-funded missions, such as France’s military surveillance satellite, insisted on waiting for the next European launcher during the one-year lapse, SpaceX has taken over other contracts (sometimes through strong pressure). There’s no question, according to Steer, that Ariane 6’s launch will reduce reliance on SpaceX for European agency-funded missions — like the bigger satellites that will provide observation data back to the government for climate monitoring, agriculture, and national security needs. For commercial deals on the other hand, Ariane 6 plans to carry a handful of payloads for companies in Europe, and SpaceX won’t be easy to beat. “They're keener to have more opportunities to launch, and I don’t think that’s going to change,” Steer said.   Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more.     DEFENSE INDUSTRY EYES NATO’S USE OF AI On the sidelines of the NATO summit in Washington, top defense industry executives laid out their plans Tuesday to integrate artificial intelligence into Western militaries — and warned that when it comes to AI in the defense sector, there’s no time for timidity. “Even as we worry about some of the ethical rules and all those issues, we need to understand that our adversaries are ignoring those completely,” Safra Catz, chief executive at software giant Oracle, told an audience of Western diplomats and business leaders convened by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Catz said NATO adversaries are hoovering up vast amounts of public and personal data and focusing “enormous resources” on using that data to build new AI tools, including some with defense applications. With that in mind, Catz suggested NATO countries should avoid handcuffing themselves as they build AI systems that can effectively compete. “It’s on us to make sure that we are both following our principles and winning — because really, it’s freedom of the free world that’s really at stake here,” Catz said. On the same panel, Linden Blue, CEO of military drone manufacturer General Atomics, laid out some emerging use cases of AI in the defense context. He explained that AI models are very good at “mundane things” like writing operating manuals for advanced aircraft, which usually takes “hours and hours of humans looking through data.” Blue also said AI will be used to draw conclusions from images and data picked up by assets like drones and used for intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition and reconnaissance purposes. “We’re already doing that now, although not on a fielded basis,” Blue said. “But it’s something that is coming — that’s a near-term thing.” Eventually, Blue said he expects the conclusions reached by those AIs will be “used for command-and-control of an asset.” “That will come too, but that will take a little bit longer,” Blue said. “Because having an asset, in our case flying around, that is making decisions on an AI basis is still a bit of a taboo issue.” —Brendan Bordelon FBI’S FIRST STRIKE ON AI BOT FARM The Department of Justice took down a Russian bot farm powered by AI, according to court documents unsealed Tuesday. POLITICO’s John Sakellariadis reported that the DOJ says a deputy editor-in-chief at the state-run Russia Today news agency used AI-powered software to spread Kremlin propaganda in the U.S. and allied countries, That individual and other employees later teamed up with Russian intelligence to amplify Kremlin-approved narratives on the social media platform X. FBI Director Christopher Wray noted it was the first instance of the U.S. dismantling an “AI-enhanced” bot farm. The software is called Meliorator and currently only available on X, though authorities warned that the developers may have “intended to expand its functionality to other social media platforms.”It’s not clear how far-reaching the campaign was, but officials worked with X to remove nearly 1000 fake accounts. The Russian embassy did not immediately reply to a request for comment.   SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW.     Tweet of the Day The Future in 5 links A federal first: the FTC has banned an app from hosting minors. Chinese self-driving cars are quiet data collectors on U.S. roads. Latin America may be less vulnerable to AI substitution than previously thought.  German firms are playing Switzerland in the U.S.-China chip war.  Riding the AI wave, Taiwanese exports grew at their fastest pace since 2022.  Stay in touch with the whole team: Derek Robertson (drobertson@politico.com); Mohar Chatterjee (mchatterjee@politico.com); Steve Heuser (sheuser@politico.com); Nate Robson (nrobson@politico.com); Daniella Cheslow (dcheslow@politico.com); and Christine Mui (cmui@politico.com). If you’ve had this newsletter forwarded to you, you can sign up and read our mission statement at the links provided.   Follow us on Twitter Ben Schreckinger @SchreckReports Derek Robertson @afternoondelete Steve Heuser @sfheuser   Follow us

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