'From no chance to some chance'

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Jul 22, 2024 View in browser   By Kyle Duggan and Zi-Ann Lum Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Ottawa Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it. In today's edition: → JOE BIDEN delivers a Sunday surprise. → Canada warns Trump world about the “real world” costs of new tariffs. → Three more things we’re watching this week. DRIVING THE DAY JUST LIKE THAT — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU was bound for British Columbia for two weeks of downtime when JOE BIDEN ended his presidential bid, dramatically altering the race and clearing the way for someone else to face off against The Donald come November. Trudeau’s social account on X posted a few hours after Biden’s move Sunday, thanking him for being a “true friend” to Canadians. Trudeau described him as a “great man” whose love for his country” guides everything he does. Canadian politicos, normally right around this time perched on the Muskoka chairs by the dock or sipping on IPAs on sunny patios, were keen to weigh in. President Joe Biden (left) and Vice President Kamala Harris watch the fireworks on the National Mall during a July 4 event at the White House. | Samuel Corum/Getty Images — Topline: Props to Biden for stepping aside. “Now the Democrats will have a fighting chance,” Pendulum Group’s YAROSLAV BARAN texted Playbook. “And for Canadian Liberals, the rest of the summer will be slow-burn discussion about whether they need to do the same thing.” He’s not the only one pointing out the parallel. “Mark my words, this is also going to re-intensify calls from Liberal ranks in Canada for Trudeau to go,” Angus Reid pollster SHACHI KURL posted on social media. “But the circumstances are not comparable. Remember that.” — What it could mean for Canada: Playbook reached LAURA DAWSON, head of the Future Border Institute, by phone at the Vancouver airport, which was full of people whose trips and cruises were messed up by the Friday CrowdStrike glitch that slammed the travel industry. “It genuinely is a real presidential contest now,” she said. “Canada has done well with Republicans, it's done well with Democrats — but we know DONALD TRUMP has a number of issues, such as security and trade, in his crosshairs that will directly affect Canada. “A week ago, I was saying [a Trump presidency] is inevitable, we should be preparing for the worst. Now, I'm looking at different scenarios.”But this doesn’t change much for the Team Canada charm offensive, she said. “I don’t think [Biden quitting] changes a lot,” GARRY KELLER of Strategy Corp. told Playbook. “Wisconsin, where the Republicans just had their convention, is up for grabs. That’s going to be a fighting state. They’re going to be talking dairy subsidies and competition with Canada, both on the Republican and Democratic sides,” he said. “There’s still the risk, in the case of a Trump victory, of the USMCA review going very negatively towards Canada. We always have to be prepared no matter who wins.” — Money talks: “And money walks,” Kellder noted, pointing to news stories about key fundraiser JEFFREY KATZENBERG having a heart-to-heart with Biden about the dollars drying up. “It’s hard to run a national campaign for president if the dollars just aren’t there.” — Twists and turns: “After getting so much so wrong for the past few months, the Democrats cannot afford to miss this moment,” SCOTT REID of Feschuk-Reid texted Playbook. “They must pressure-test would-be candidates.” “This race has featured a historic debate fail, a Supreme Court openly campaigning for the GOP, an assassination attempt and an unprecedented, last-minute presidential withdrawal. What comes next, pirate ships and volcanoes? The only political lesson of 2024 so far is that literally anything can happen.” — Story refresh: ALYSON FAIR of Bluesky said social media was the right venue for Biden to announce his decision. And while Sunday afternoon in the middle of summer made for strange timing, it sends conversation in the right direction for the Dems. “The [Biden] story ends there, and it’s now the Democratic Party’s story and KAMALA HARRIS’ story, if she gets the nomination,” she said. “The party needs to … come out [immediately] and say what the process is going to be to make sure their membership is not hanging, trying to figure out next steps because that’s where things will go wrong.” Former NDP MP PEGGY NASH tells Playbook the announcement offers relief and some certainty for Democrats. “It’s uncertainty in terms of how Kamala Harris will be received with Biden’s endorsement and with the easier transition of campaign funds to her.” — Related POLITICO read: From LAUREN EGAN, LISA KASHINSKY and SARAH FERRIS: “Democrats rally around Harris to replace Biden.” — Legacy move: “If Democrats win, they can thank Joe Biden,” Nash said. “If they lose, they can thank Joe Biden for at least giving them the best chance possible.” — More POLITICO reads: “Why Biden finally quit” via ELI STOKOLS, JONATHAN LEMIRE, ELENA SCHNEIDER and SARAH FERRIS.  From JONATHAN MARTIN: Inside the Democratic reboot: Joy, hope and fear. “5 things to know about where Dems go from here” by STEVEN SHEPARD.From KIERRA FRAZIER, HAILEY FUCHS and HEIDI PRZYBYLA: “Nine possible running mates Kamala Harris could pick” “Trump allies launch attacks on Harris in battleground states and beyond,” report ALEX ISENSTADT, NATALIE ALLISON and MERIDITH MCGRAW. MIA MCCARTHY writes “OBAMA endorses open nominating process,” (so does former ambassador BRUCE HEYMAN), while BILL and HILLARY CLINTON are endorsing Harris. — A sampling of Canuck takes: SUSAN DELACOURT writes in the Toronto Star there’s “no indication that Trudeau is in the same position as Biden found himself.” KEN BOESSENKOOL: “Thank God Biden asked for, and got, an early debate.” TRACEY RAMSEY: “This just changed everything. When Kamala Harris becomes the nominee it will pave the way for her to become the first Woman President of the US.” ANGUS REID: “Biden out. Dems move from no chance to some chance. If Harris wins it will be interesting to watch the Sept debate when the former prosecutor looks at Trump and says “I’m used to dealing with felons like you.” ANDREW TUMILTY: “Don’t buy anyone trying to spin Biden dropping out as being good for Trump. It’s not, this is a disaster for his campaign. Now, he’s the only old man running whose mental capacity is in question.” HOWARD ANGLIN: “Biden is dumb, vicious, petty, and corrupt. He’s been an unprincipled DC sleazebag-huckster out of central casting, complete with hair plugs and capped teeth, for 50 years. Now, finally, he’s done one honorable thing.” JANE PHILPOTT: “This is a remarkable act of unselfish commitment to the best interests of his country. History will reward such a dignified and principled decision.” TYLER MEREDITH: “Joe Biden stepped up to save the world from Trump in 2020. And he’s doing it again in 2024.” JOE CRESSY: “Strong enough to join the fight, but wise enough to know when to leave it. There are many qualities to good leadership. Passing the baton is one of them.” DAN ARNOLD: The "your country needs you, o reluctant candidate" shtick is usually just for show. But if ever there was a time for a truly reluctant candidate to be talked into running for the good for their country, it's now, MICHELLE OBAMA.” — Spotted: CP’s MORGAN LOWRIE, the first Canadian reporter out of the gate to remind us of Harris’ Montreal connection.   Live briefings, policy trackers, and procedural, industry, and people intelligence from POLITICO Pro Analysis gives you the insights you need to focus your policy strategy this election cycle. Secure your seat.      2024 WATCH Canada Ambassador Kirsten Hillman, centre, with her German counterpart, Andreas Michaelis, and Swedish Ambassador Urban Ahlinduring. | Rod Lamkey Jr. for POLITICO ABOUT THOSE TARIFFS — Canada’s envoy to the United States is cautioning former President Donald Trump’s team to think twice about its threat to impose a universal 10 percent tariff on imports. The protectionist policy could disrupt the “very positive trajectory” of bilateral trade under the renegotiated North American Free Trade Agreement, Canadian Ambassador Kirsten Hillman warned last week during a forum at the POLITICO-CNN Grill on the sidelines of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. Bilateral trade under the renegotiated deal that came into force in 2020 has been a “huge success,” she said, adding that because of it, 99 percent of the goods that cross the border do so tariff-free in an economic relationship worth $2.7 billion in trade a day. — Notable quotable: “We're talking to Trump advisers on this, we are really urging them to consider what the implications of applying that would be,” Hillman said during the forum. Asked for comment on just who that would consist of, the Canadian embassy would not name names, but confirmed it has reached out to former Trump admin. officials, former advisors, members of Congress, governors and other state level senior officials, along with think tanks and academics. ZI-ANN LUM covered the talk for Pros, with “Canada warns Trump about ‘real world’ costs of 10 percent tariff” — Russia on the radar: European ambassadors at the POLITICO-CNN event said they are trying to pitch continued U.S. support for NATO and Ukraine by using Republican-friendly terms. Hillman said on top of NATO’s eastern flank, the alliance must be prepared to protect its northern flank in the Arctic, and added Canada is “making headway with those” in Washington who have not previously recognized the danger posed by Moscow, but that requires “consistent and persistent discussions.” — Notes for later: In his convention speech, Trump called NAFTA the “worst trade deal ever” — one that was replaced by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, negotiated under his administration. The 10 percent tariff on imports did not come up in Trump’s convention speech, but he did include several threats to the electric vehicle supply chain. In one breath, Trump called the shift to zero-emissions vehicles a “crazy electric Band-Aid.” In the next, he said: “And by the way, I’m all for electric.” — What’s next: Trump’s focus on America’s auto industry offers Canada and Mexico early hints of where America will focus in the upcoming USMCA review slated for 2026, should he return to the White House. — In related reading: From J.P. TASKER at CBC News: Canada braces for Trump 2.0. Where the leaders are — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in British Columbia on vacation with his family until Aug. 1. — Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND will meet with Canadian labor leaders at 11:30 a.m. to discuss potential tariffs in response to “unfair Chinese trade practices in electric vehicles.” At 2:30 p.m., DPM will discuss the same issue with business leaders and representatives from the aluminum sector. — Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE is in Muskoka for an 8:30 a.m. fundraising reception at the Öviinbyrd Golf Club. — Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET will be in Sherbrooke, Quebec, to meet with FRANÇOIS LEDUC of Entreprendre Sherbrooke at 2:30 p.m. — NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH kicks off a three-day tour in Northern Ontario in Timmins with a 12:15 p.m. media avail at CHARLIE ANGUS’ constit office. — Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY marches in the Halifax Pride parade with Nova Scotia Green Party Leader ANTHONY EDMONDS. DULY NOTED Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY will be in Tokyo for bilateral meetings. Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE and Transport Minister PABLO RODRIGUEZ will be in the United Kingdom to attend the Farnborough International Airshow, just outside of London. International Development Minister AHMED HUSSEN is at the G20 development ministerial meetings in Rio de Janeiro today and tomorrow. THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING HACK AND SLASH — Bank of Canada Governor TIFF MACKLEM takes the spotlight Wednesday for his July rate announcement. Another quarter-point cut, which would bring the key rate down to 4.5 percent, is widely expected after June data showed inflation slowing. The governing council also releases its updated projections for inflation and growth, but don’t hold your breath. CIBC Capital Markets Chief Economist AVERY SHENFELD writes in a note that “for market participants looking for clues on what lies ahead, the Monetary Policy Report will read like a partially redacted intelligence agency release, with some of the juicy bits covered up.” But the overall inflation message will be: “don’t worry, we’ve got this.” — The big question: Which month will the bank choose to hit the pause button on cuts. — Making the rounds: This RBC note by NATHAN JANZEN and CARRIE FREESTONE saying Canada’s surging population growth is masking a recession-like economic backdrop. ASIA TRIP CONTINUES — Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY is in Laos this week for the ASEAN summit. Joly’s Asia tour included stops in Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo, where she’s among other things promoting the government’s Indo-Pacific strategy. — Could get awkward: Russian Foreign Minister SERGEY LAVROV will also be in attendance at ASEAN. It comes fresh on the heels of her meeting with China’s Foreign Minister WANG YI, who apparently urged Canada to “seriously reflect” on its strained bilateral relationship, according to the Chinese foreign ministry statement about the meeting. — The line: Wang apparently told Joly that “China-Canada relations have experienced difficulties and twists and turns over the years, which is not something China would like to see.” Joly was visiting Beijing at Wang’s invitation, marking the first by a Canadian foreign minister in nearly seven years. COMMITTEE CONVENES — The government operations committee revs to life — twice! — this week for hearings on government contracting. The Conservatives aim to press government officials over fraud charges laid by RCMP against a former consultant alleged to have overbilled the government by some C$250,000. Several MPs tweeted about the upcoming meetings, including KELLY BLOCK who said Canadians “deserve to know how much Trudeau has broken the procurement system.” On Tuesday, four ranking bureaucrats from public works are scheduled to appear. Those include Associate Deputy Minister MICHAEL MILLS, procurement Assistant Deputy Minister DOMINIC LAPORTE, oversight Assistant Deputy Minister CATHERINE POULIN, and KIRK ALBERT, head of special investigations. MEDIA ROOM — Former defense minister PERRIN BEATTY tells National Post’s DONNA KENNEDY-GLANS Canada isn’t ready to face dangers in the world today. — Writing in the Star, MANISHA KRISHNAN makes the case that fearmongering about “drug dens” is making Canada’s crisis worse. — In an editorial on “the Trudeau Senate,” the Globe points out that in the PM’s first term (2015 to 2019), the Senate produced 152 substantive reports. The number to date in the current Parliament: 43 — “an average of 1.3 a month.” — The Star writes on “Canada’s Black Justice Strategy,” a 62-page report just delivered to the federal justice department. — “The old knock on the capital was that it was boring. Washington may have enacted policies that affected life and death, but the workaday participants in its major industry felt largely insulated from the impact,” MICHAEL SCHAFFER writes for POLITICO Magazine. “You might worry that a career here would make you a dullard, but you knew it wouldn’t make you a target.” Just substitute “Ottawa” for D.C. — DAVID SCHRIBMAN is on "The Decibel" pod to discuss this moment in American politics. PROZONE For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter by ZI-ANN LUM: Next week and a lifetime in politics. In other news for Pro readers:  — Trade policy downgraded in von der Leyen’s second-term agenda. — Biden's policies have created jobs. In Wisconsin, it's not ‘enough.’ — Trump and Zelenskyy hold phone call — and Ukraine says it liked what it heard. — This burger could kill the EU. — Fossil fuel extraction compatible with climate action, says COP29 host Azerbaijan. PLAYBOOKERS Green MP Mike Morrice hits a milestone today. | Nick Taylor-Vaisey/POLITICO Birthdays: Green MP MIKE MORRICE is 40 today. Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way. Spotted: MP ALISTAIR MACGREGOR at the Islands Folk Festival … GRAHAM RICHARDSON, honored by the Redblacks … ERIN O’TOOLE on social media calling out the “torrent of toxic and stupid posts” about the new CDS Gen. JENNIE CARIGNAN. Movers and shakers: Former senior staffer to Freeland, CAMERON MCNEILL, is joining Rasmussen Global as senior communications adviser, as it expands its communications advisory team in Brussels. Former Liberal MP JOHN ALDAG is running as the BC provincial NDP candidate for Langley-Abbotsford. Montreal city councillor LAURA PALESTINI will run for the Liberals in the LaSalle-Émard-Verdun by-election race to replace DAVID LAMETTI. The Conservatives haven’t chosen a candidate yet, but Palestini will face off against another Montreal councillor, CRAIG SAUVÉ, repping the NDP. Meanwhile the Conservatives have chosen COLIN REYNOLDS as their candidate for the Elmwood-Transcona by-election to replace NDP MP DANIEL BLAIKIE. The NDP is fielding LEILA DANCE, head of the Transcona Business Improvement Zone, while the Liberals have yet to select a candidate. TRIVIA Friday's answer: JIMMY CARTER led the boycott of the Olympics that opened July 19, 1980. Props to TOD COWEN, ALEX BALLINGALL, FELIX​​​​ BERNIER, JOHN DILLON, RAYLENE LANG, DARRYL DAMUDE, JAVIER GONZALEZ BLANCO, MALCOLM MCKAY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, BILL GARVIN, JOANNA PLATER, RALPH LEVENSTEIN, JOHN MERRIMAN, DENISE SIELE, PATRICK DION, CHRIS RANDS, NANCI WAUGH, GEORGE SCHOENHOFER, JOHN MATHESON and MARCEL MARCOTTE.  For the record: MICHEL BREAU and GORDON RANDALL also had the answer to our Cabinet shuffle question. Today’s question: WILLIAM LYON MACKENZIE KING died at Kingsmere on this date in 1950. Where is he buried? Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.   Follow us on Twitter Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey Sue Allan @susan_allan Kyle Duggan @Kyle_Duggan Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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