Hurricane quandary: Better forecasts, stronger storms

Your guide to the political forces shaping the energy transformation

Jul 08, 2024 View in browser   By Chelsea Harvey and Francisco "A.J." Camacho Satellite imagery shows Hurricane Beryl churning over Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Friday. | NOAA via AP Hurricane forecasts have vastly improved in recent decades, but that doesn’t necessarily mean communities are more prepared. Death tolls are rising as climate change supercharges storms and coastal areas’ populations increase. As I report today, the key to reducing hurricane damages and deaths may mean building smarter — and potentially building less — in high-risk areas. “The battle is won months and years in advance of a storm,” said Lee Mayfield, director of response at the disaster preparation firm Hagerty Consulting. “Investments in critical infrastructure, investments in hardening your home.” It’s a sharp reminder after Hurricane Beryl’s record-breaking rampage across the Caribbean and through the Gulf of Mexico to the Texas coast. In June, Beryl became the earliest Category 4 hurricane on record in the Atlantic — and then, this month, it grew to a monster Category 5. It made landfall near Houston early Monday morning as a Category 1, bringing intense winds and rains, flash floods, and storm surge as high as 7 feet. More than 2 million people were experiencing power outages in Texas as of this morning. And at least 3 people have died as a result of the storm. Experts say coastal areas need stronger building codes and more climate-resilient infrastructure. That may also mean encouraging less development in hurricane-prone areas. Half the battle Hurricane-chasing planes, satellites, data-collecting instruments and computer models have helped scientists hone their predictions for hurricane movements and intensity. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has reduced hurricane track error by 64 percent and intensity error by half since 2000, according to National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. That has helped emergency managers improve communication and tailor evacuation notices as hurricanes approach. But coastal populations have increased by more than 40 million people since 1970, according to NOAA, putting more people in the potential path of strengthening hurricanes. A study last year found that hurricane-related mortalities are often higher than official counts, which only include deaths caused by winds or rains. Many people die, for example, from heat exposure after power outages knock out their air conditioning or from preexisting health conditions exacerbated by the stress of a hurricane. And death tolls are higher for socially vulnerable populations, including people of color and low-income communities, according to the study. Meanwhile, billion-dollar climate disasters are on the rise. The costliest events: hurricanes, racking up more than $1.3 trillion since 1980.   It's Monday — thank you for tuning in to POLITICO's Power Switch. We're your hosts, Chelsea Harvey and Francisco “A.J.” Camacho. Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to jkirkland@eenews.net.   Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more.     Listen to today’s POLITICO Energy podcast Today in POLITICO Energy’s podcast: Alex Guillén breaks down why the Supreme Court's decision to strike down the Chevron doctrine has big implications for Democrats, Republicans and Congress. Power Centers President Joe Biden walks across the South Lawn of the White House on Saturday after returning from a trip to Pennsylvania. | Susan Walsh/AP A green divide Environmental groups are split on whether to join calls for President Joe Biden to drop his reelection bid, writes Timothy Cama. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, championed by the president, is the largest climate spending package in U.S. history. But after backing Biden in 2020, Friends of the Earth Action is worried Biden's debate performance will make it too difficult for him to beat former President Donald Trump in November. Other green groups are undecided, while the Sierra Club reaffirmed today that it is backing Biden. Europe's shuffle to the left The United Kingdom has a new government with some ambitious environmental goals, write Dan Bloom and Bethany Dawson. The July 4 elections were a landslide victory for Britain’s left-leaning Labour Party whose platform includes achieving net-zero electricity and banning new gas and diesel cars by 2030. New Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government also wants to create a public energy company and heighten building energy efficiency standards. Meanwhile, the French delivered an upset election result that is likely to avoid an anticipated far-right government that threatened to take down numerous green policies. What's Project 2025? Former President Donald Trump is trying to distance himself from a controversial Heritage Foundation initiative staffed by officials who worked in his administration, writes Timothy Cama. The plan, known as Project 2025, calls for loosening many environmental rules, reducing efforts by the Environmental Protection Agency to address climate change, and directing the Interior Department to prioritize increasing production of coal, oil, and natural gas on public lands and waters. (Trump happens to support these goals too.) The project’s director, Paul Dans, was chief of staff in the Office of Personnel Management under Trump, and most of the policy sections are written by former Trump appointees. Trump said he knew nothing about the project. In Other News Water and sun: A stretch of irrigation canal near Phoenix is set to be topped with solar panels to generate clean electricity. Water and earth: Climate-driven humidity could increase decomposition of the world’s oldest mummies in the Chilean Andes, and archaeologists are racing to save them.   SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW.     Subscriber Zone A showcase of some of our best subscriber content. A wind turbine spins and generates power for the U.S. electric grid at the South Fork Wind farm in the Atlantic Ocean 35 miles east of Montauk Point, New York, on Dec. 8, 2023. | Ted Shaffrey/AP New York Gov. Kathy Hochul’s administration says it’s too late for the state to meet some of its renewable energy goals, but environmental groups argue there is still hope. Next on the congressional agenda: funding for the Interior Department and several environmental measures, but deliberations on the particulars could be messy. A major trade association is working to ax a Biden administration climate policy — even though six of its member companies publicly support the Securities and Exchange Commission rule. That's it for today, folks! Thanks for reading.   Follow us on Twitter Arianna Skibell @ariannaskibell   Follow us

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