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The power players, latest policy developments, and intriguing whispers percolating inside the West Wing.
Jul 10, 2024 View in browser
 
West Wing Playbook

By Myah Ward, Lauren Egan, Eli Stokols and Ben Johansen

Welcome to POLITICO’s West Wing Playbook, your guide to the people and power centers in the Biden administration.

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As the Biden team is desperately trying to stop the post-debate hemorrhaging, the campaign is circulating a new internal polling memo showing that President JOE BIDEN hasn’t totally ruined his chances with Latino voters just yet.

The main takeaway: After Biden’s calamitous debate performance, Latino voters are concerned about his age. But, according to the new data, that concern is overtaken by their fears about DONALD TRUMP’s policy agenda on everything from immigration to guns to democracy.

The new memo from BSP Research, obtained first by West Wing Playbook, marks the latest effort from the campaign to convince allies — and staff inside the White House and campaign who are spooked about November — that the debate was not a fatal blow to Biden’s reelection bid, particularly when it comes to key demographics that could make or break a second victory.

MATT BARRETO and ANGIE GUTIERREZ, who work on Latino polling for the Biden campaign, surveyed 1,600 Latino voters in seven battleground states starting the day after the debate in both English and Spanish. The poll found that Biden leads Trump 53 percent to 36 percent among registered Latino voters, a better margin for the president than most public polls but also shy of his 2020 performance.

When these voters were asked about their biggest concerns with Biden, roughly a third of those surveyed said age was the No. 1 concern, followed by voters who said the economy. But the campaign pollsters argue this is nothing new — that these were the same top concerns Latino voters would bring up in focus groups in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina. And Barreto argues that despite the age worries, these voters aren’t shifting to Trump.

“It is not the case that people who say ‘I’m concerned about Biden’s age’ are flocking to Trump. There are still more Biden voters in that group than Trump voters. And then there’s a lot of voters that need to be shored up,” he said in an interview.

The shoring-up part is where Biden has a whole lot of work to do. Although the campaign has ramped up its Hispanic outreach efforts (Biden is scheduled to attend the UnidosUS Annual Conference in Las Vegas next week), with just four months to go until the election Latino voters still say they’re not hearing enough from the president. Right now, only 30 percent of Latino voters say they feel “very well informed” about Biden’s 2024 campaign agenda. Another 30 percent say they’re not informed at all.

This messaging downfall tracks with the concerns that former and current Latino administration officials raised with Biden campaign manager JULIE CHÁVEZ RODRÍGUEZ in the days after the debate — that these voters are feeling disillusioned, and these problems have been brewing long before the president’s meltdown.

Biden has room to grow with Latino voters, but that’ll only happen if the message gets out there, Barreto said. Going negative on Trump and really digging into the policy contrasts is what resonates with them the most.

“Latinos aren’t getting more conservative, which is why I’ve been telling people for four years that there needs to be more outreach and information in front of the average voter,” he said. “When you do that, at the end of the poll, I spend all the time telling people what Biden has accomplished and what Trump’s gonna do. They’re like, ‘Yeah, I like this. I like this guy.’”

Hanging over all of this, of course, are questions about whether Biden will in fact be the party’s nominee. Even as more Democrats have publicly stated that they do not believe he can beat Trump and have urged him to drop out, his campaign has continued to insist that he will remain in the race. And it’s also notable that some of Biden’s most strident supporters this week have come from the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, a group that hasn’t been shy about taking on the president on issues like immigration.

But taking solace in the fact that Biden has room to grow with Latino voters implies that the president can vigorously deliver a convincing message to voters. Nothing about the last month suggests that will be an easy task for Biden.

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POTUS PUZZLER

In 2015, which show was BARACK OBAMA dying to have spoiled?

(Answer at bottom.)

The Oval

O BROTHER, WHERE ART THOU? What a difference a month can make. Actor GEORGE CLOONEY, who just co-hosted a Biden campaign fundraiser that brought in $28 million, is now out on Joe. In a NYT op-ed Wednesday, Clooney argues that his dear friend Biden, who “saved democracy” in 2020, should do so again. By dropping out.

“It’s devastating to say it,” Clooney continues, “but the Joe Biden I was with three weeks ago at the fund-raiser was not the Joe ‘big F-ing deal’ Biden of 2010. He wasn’t even the Joe Biden of 2020. He was the same man we all witnessed at the debate.”

Clooney argues that Democrats should let people like KAMALA HARRIS, WES MOORE, GRETCHEN WHITMER and GAVIN NEWSOM step forward and make the case for why they’re the best bet to take on Trump. “Then we could go into the Democratic convention next month and figure it out,” he writes. “Would it be messy? Yes. Democracy is messy. But would it enliven our party and wake up voters who, long before the June debate, had already checked out? It sure would.”

On Tuesday, after the Biden campaign learned of the imminent op-ed, campaign aides began what NYT’s REID J. EPSTEIN describes as a full-court press to convince the actor not to publish. JEFFREY KATZENBERG, the movie mogul who is a co-chairman of the Biden campaign and its chief ambassador to Hollywood donors, led the unsuccessful effort.

Some advice: Never trust a George.

WHAT NANCY DID NOT SAY: Former House Speaker NANCY PELOSI (D-Calif.) was noncommittal Wednesday morning when asked if she supported President Biden continuing his reelection bid, our ANTHONY ADRAGNA and NICHOLAS WU report. During an appearance on “Morning Joe,” our JONATHAN LEMIRE asked Pelosi directly whether Biden should stay in the race. “I want him to do whatever he decides to do,” Pelosi responded.

The issue dominated Capitol Hill today (and will for the rest of the week), with many congressional Democrats joining Pelosi in hedging their support. “I am deeply concerned about Joe Biden winning this November,” Sen. RICHARD BLUMENTHAL (D-Conn.) told reporters, before adding that he’s still behind the president.

Sen. TIM KAINE (D-Va.) repeated a common talking point from Democrats who are not explicitly calling on Biden to exit (wink wink): “I have complete confidence that Joe Biden will do the patriotic thing for the country. He’s always put patriotism and the country ahead of himself and I’m going to respect the decision he makes.”

And Rep. PAT RYAN (D-N.Y.), who is facing a competitive general election this November in upstate New York, became the eighth House Democrat to outright call on the president to step aside, Nicholas Wu reports. “Joe Biden is a patriot but is no longer the best candidate to defeat Trump. For the good of our country, I am asking Joe Biden to step aside — to deliver on his promise to be a bridge to a new generation of leaders,” Ryan wrote in a post on X Wednesday.

IN HIS PRIMETIME ERA: On Monday, President Biden will sit down with “NBC Nightly News” anchor LESTER HOLT, as his team attempts to clean up the mess left from last month’s debate. It also comes less than a week after his interview with GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS and call-in to “Morning Joe.” The interview will air in its entirety during a primetime special that evening at 9 p.m. Eastern — during the first night of the Republican convention.

Portions of the interview will air earlier in the day on NBC Nightly News at 6:30 p.m. The full interview and unedited transcript will be available following the special.

WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE WANTS YOU TO WATCH: This segment on “Morning Joe,” where American investor STEVEN RATTNER argues that Donald Trump not only didn’t have the greatest economy ever, “he didn’t have the greatest economy of the last two presidents.” Rattner put wage growth and inflation side-by-side for the two administrations, showing wage growth has outpaced inflation over the past year. Rattner also presented the data adjusting for COVID’s impact — which the former president blames for why the economy performed poorly under him.

Senior communications adviser for economic messaging MICHAEL KIKUKAWA and senior adviser to the chief of staff SALONI SHARMA reposted the data on X.

WHAT THE WHITE HOUSE DOESN’T WANT YOU TO READ: This piece by our NICK REISMAN, who reports that many New York Democrats are panicking that the decades-long deep blue state may have just become competitive. Polls show an erosion of Biden’s support in a state he won by 23 points in 2020. And elected officials, union leaders and political consultants are so concerned that they’ve tried convincing the Biden campaign to pour resources into New York to shore up his campaign and boost Democrats running in a half-dozen swing districts that could determine control of the House.

“We’re still acting like this is a one-party state, which for pretty much 20, 25 years it has been,” Democratic Manhattan Borough President MARK LEVINE said. “I truly believe we’re a battleground state now.”

Notably, New York Lt. Gov. ANTONIO DELGADO — a former member of Congress — broke from Gov. KATHY HOCHUL on Wednesday, calling for the president to step aside. “I believe we should move forward with a nominee capable of reinvigorating and reenergizing Americans who are determined to protect our democracy, and who want to do so with a candidate they believe can win.”

CAMPAIGN HQ

TEAM HUDDLE: Senior Biden campaign members will meet with Senate Democrats on Thursday afternoon, Punchbowl’s ANDREW DESIDERIO reports. Campaign adviser MIKE DONILON, counselor to the president STEVE RICCHETTI, as well as campaign chair JEN O’MALLEY DILLON, will brief the senators at the DSCC headquarters.

This comes as the White House looks to contain more criticism from the caucus following Colorado Sen. MICHAEL BENNET’s CNN interview Tuesday night in which he asserted that he no longer believes Biden can beat Trump. Desiderio was also told by a Democratic senator, unprompted, that the meeting is a “waste of everyone’s time if Biden can’t even come make the case himself.”

REAL TALK: Former Biden communications director KATE BEDINGFIELD had a simple request for the campaign Wednesday: If you’re so confident that your internal data proves you can beat Trump, release it to the public. “If they have data that supports the path to victory that they see, they should put it out there now and help people who badly want to beat Trump rally around it,” Bedingfield wrote on X. “People want to see the path.”

This clearly resonated deeply with actor MARK RUFFALO, who reposted Bedingfield, writing: “This is a fair analysis and request.”

THE BUREAUCRATS

NO, REALLY, GUYS. SHE WAS IN THE OVAL! After several days of shifting and incomplete responses left press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE on the defensive, she explained the delayed start of Tuesday’s briefing by informing reporters that she’d come straight from the Oval Office. Hours later, she posted an Instagram reel of her with the president. Lest there be any remaining doubt that she does, in fact, have first-hand information to share.

PERSONNEL MOVES: President Biden will nominate Office of Management and Budget official JULIE SIEGEL for a commissioner seat at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, our MEREDITH LEE HILL reports for Pro subscribers. Siegel, who is senior coordinator for management at OMB, previously worked as deputy chief of staff at the Treasury Department. She was also a banking and economic policy aide to Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.).

— SERENA WALKER has been promoted to associate director for cabinet affairs and senior adviser to the Cabinet Secretary. She was previously special assistant for cabinet affairs.

Agenda Setting

RAISE THE DAMN ROADS: The Biden administration on Wednesday finalized a policy to protect tens of thousands of federally funded construction projects from heightened flooding risks posed by climate change, E&E News’ THOMAS FRANK reports. Starting in September, public infrastructure that’s rebuilt with federal dollars will have to be elevated at least 2 feet above the local flood level.

Federal Emergency Management Agency officials said the new rule will apply to more than 35,000 projects over the next decade, including police stations, schools, sewer plants, roads and bridges. They acknowledged it may increase rebuilding and repair costs but argued the extra cost would be offset over the long term by averting flood damage.

NO SNEAKING AROUND: The Biden administration said it would be imposing tariffs on imports of Mexican metals that are partially made in China — a step to help prevent China from circumventing tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum by routing the imports through Mexico, NYT’s ANA SWANSON reports. The U.S. will implement a 25 percent tariff on Mexican steel that is melted or poured outside North America before being turned into a finished product. Previously, that steel would have entered the country duty free.

What We're Reading

Act of Desperation? Biden's Team Checks Delegates for Loyalty (POLITICO's Jonathan Martin)

I Share a Birthday With President Biden. Ask Me About Our Age (Clark Hoyt for the NYT)

Harris rallies in Las Vegas for Biden. Many Democrats agree, but some want her to face Trump (LAT’s Faith E. Pinho)

Trump is Planning For a Landslide Win (The Atlantic’s Tim Alberta)

POTUS PUZZLER ANSWER

Spoiler alert for those who are 10 years behind on "Game of Thrones" …

During a 2015 state dinner, Obama asked then-HBO CEO RICHARD PLEPLER whether or not JON SNOW would come back to life at the beginning of season 6. But even the president’s status wasn’t enough for those secrets. “Mr. President, even your security clearance isn’t high enough to give you the answer to that,” Plepler reportedly responded.

A CALL OUT! Do you think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best one about the presidents, with a citation or sourcing, and we may feature it!

Edited by Stephen Shepard and Rishika Dugyala.

 

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