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Jul 12, 2024 View in browser
 
Ottawa Playbook

By Zi-Ann Lum, Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Kyle Duggan


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Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let’s get to it.

In today's edition:

→ Fife vs. Fife: Compare and contrast.

→ CHRYSTIA FREELAND belatedly confirms JANET YELLEN meeting, again.

→ Trudeau’s NATO target, plus some very good questions.

DRIVING THE DAY

Canada's Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland attends the Ukranian Breakfast on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Davos on January 18, 2024. (Photo by Fabrice COFFRINI / AFP) (Photo by FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP via Getty Images)

Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland is in New York today while the rumors fly in Ottawa. | AFP via Getty Images

HEARD THIS ONE BEFORE — Blame everyone but JUSTIN TRUDEAU.

There’s some sort of accountability exercise going on and Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND is being set up as a political sacrifice.

— Her apparent offense: Being an ineffectual sales agent (translation: lousy communicator) for the economic policies led by a PM who went into a pandemic election declaring he doesn’t prioritize thinking about monetary policy.

— It’s a bird, it’s a plane, it’s a Cabinet shuffle trial balloon: Two anonymous sources dumped on Freeland by way of a report from The Globe and Mail’s BOB FIFE, knocking the DPM for failing to deliver an “upbeat economic message.”

In Washington at the NATO summit, the story caused a stir among the press traveling with Trudeau, prompting the PMO to smother it with denials.

— Fife vs. Fife: The fishbowl chatter compared and contrasted Thursday’s talker with the August 2020 bombshell that spelled the beginning of the end of former finance minister BILL MORNEAU's political career.

Note the similarities and differences in Fife’s verbiage and sourcing:

→ Headlines: Both set up conflict between the minister and the Prime Minister’s Office. In 2020, Morneau’s job was “in jeopardy” after “clashes” with the boss. On Thursday, the story’s digital headlines evolved throughout the morning. Each mentioned rising tensions between the offices.

→ Unnamed sources: Four years ago, Fife vaguely cited “insiders” and “sources” widely believed to be PMO staffers. Yesterday, Ottawa's scoop machine attributed “two sources” who claim to be familiar with “the view of some senior officials” in PMO — including KATIE TELFORD.

→ The Carney in the room: Both stories name-checked MARK CARNEY, the former central banker and forever-maybe Liberal leadership aspirant.

Four years ago, “sources did not deny” Carney could replace Morneau.

On Thursday, sources cited “discussions internally about the possibility of recruiting” Carney.

— Where in the world is Carney? England, where he recently sat in the royal box overlooking Wimbledon's center court.

Carney also took meetings this week at 10 Downing.

→ They said, they said: 2020’s tale didn't include formal PMO comment on day one. Morneau’s office did provide a quote.

In Thursday's story, the PMO said the boss “has full trust” in Freeland. Per Fife, the minister's office “was not available to comment.”

→ Timing: The 2020 hit also landed in the summer before the next federal election, just like Thursday’s Freeland story. Time is running out for a shuffle if the PMO is truly looking for someone new to hold the pen for next year’s high-stakes election budget.

→ Trudeau initial reaction: Trudeau told reporters in Washington Thursday that he’s been trying to convince Carney to join federal politics for years.

This was after he was asked to confirm reporting by the Toronto Star’s ALTHIA RAJ that he’s had discussions with Carney about the possibility of replacing Freeland in finance. Trudeau didn’t answer the question directly — that is, he didn't outright deny it.

Freeland is a “close friend and ally and partner,” Trudeau said. “I have full confidence in her abilities, and on the work we're going to be doing together.”

In 2020, Trudeau expressed “full confidence” in Morneau immediately after the Globe ran its first story. Morneau resigned a week later.

— In related reading: CHRIS NARDI of the National Post notes, “PMO's leaks targeting Freeland evoke memories of the purge of Bill Morneau.” And from the Globe’s CAMPBELL CLARK: “A cunning plan to leave the Finance Minister dangling by a thread.”

— Sloppy or genius comms: The Globe piece dropped the same day Trudeau was ready at last to announce a timeline to reach NATO’s 2 percent defense-spending target.

— Curious timing: The PM chose to make his announcement at the close of the summit in Washington.

Had he shared his 2032 target at the start of the week, it may have saved Canada from being called a U.S. defense freeloader by Senate Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL (R-Ky.), Sen. DAN SULLIVAN (R-Alaska) and others. It’s not like the extra days helped policy advisers firm up any details.

— Back to (Ottawa) life. Back to (political) reality: It’s been nearly a year since the PM attempted a major reset to Cabinet. Not only did the touted overhaul fail to reset Liberal fortunes, it actually backfired after failing to live up to the hype.

— Will she stay or will she go? One senior Liberal told Playbook on Thursday they are absolutely certain Freeland will stay put. "I don't think she's going anywhere. In fact, she's not going anywhere," they said, pointing to her involvement in taking on "nearly every major crisis and obstacle the government has tackled since NAFTA, and actually going back further to CETA."

— Gaming this out: If whiteboards in the PMO are already toying with the idea of another summer shuffle, there’s a stack of dates for consideration before the House returns Sept. 16.

→ Timing will depend on Trudeau’s annual summer vacation.

→ There’s a Cabinet retreat to plan for (usually late August or early September).

→ There will also be a pre-sitting caucus retreat.

→ Trudeau must also call a by-election in the Montreal riding of LaSalle–Émard–Verdun by July 30 for a vote that has to take place by Sept. 16, latest. Liberals still don’t have a candidate in that riding after Trudeau dumped former Justice Minister DAVID LAMETTI from Cabinet, which led to his resignation.

SEND US YOUR SMART TAKES: Think a Cabinet shuffle is on the horizon? Email us: ottawaplaybook@politico.com

For your radar


QUIET ON YELLEN — Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND met with U.S. Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN for the second time in a month in Washington.

— Why so mysterious: Freeland’s Wednesday itinerary only mentioned that she’d be in town for the 4th Canada-U.S. Nuclear Energy Forum and for a meeting with her joint Canada-U.S. Energy Transformation Task Force co-chair AMOS HOCHSTEIN.

Nowhere did her public itinerary nod to her meeting with Yellen at the U.S. Treasury.

Evidence of the meeting only later showed up on her X and Instagram accounts, with a smiling pic of Freeland and Yellen. (Freeland sported sneakers in Yellen’s social media post while the DPM’s team cropped the pic right below the knee.)

— Ask for a window, get a wall: Playbook asked Freeland’s office Wednesday if the DPM had plans to meet Yellen while in town. Only on Thursday did the DPM’s office acknowledge that one had taken place. They discussed “the economy” and the Canada-U.S. relationship.

The DPM’s office would neither confirm or deny if Canada’s digital services tax came up — an issue that has reportedly caused “unease” in the PMO despite the government backing the measure since 2020’s fall economic statement.

— Dispute heats up in D.C.: On Thursday, House Republicans sent a letter formally demanding the Biden administration to launch an investigation of the DST under Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act of 1974, which empowers the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative to enforce American rights under trade agreements in response to foreign trade grievances.

“It is disappointing that Canada seeks to erode the durability of our bilateral economic relationship,” read the letter addressed to USTR KATHERINE TAI.

Yellen’s name was cc’d on the bottom.

Where the leaders are


— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in the Ottawa region with no public events on his schedule.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in New York City for a second day with “private meetings” including one speaking with Chancellor of the Exchequer RACHEL REEVES, the first woman to lead the Treasury in the U.K.’s history.

— Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE and Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET have not released their public itineraries.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH Is in Winnipeg to campaign with NDP Elmwood-Transcona candidate Leila Dance. The pair has a 11:45 a.m. (10:45 a.m. CT) media availability to talk about “changing the rules to lower grocery prices.”

— Green Leader ELIZABETH MAY will spend the day in her riding meeting with constituents.

DULY NOTED


10:30 a.m. Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE is in Shawinigan, Quebec, to tour Digihub’s facilities and announce regional economic funding for the company. A media availability will follow.

ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR

WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 9: Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the NATO Summit on July 9, 2024 in Washington, DC. NATO leaders convene in Washington this week for its annual summit to discuss future strategies and commitments and mark the 75th anniversary of the alliance’s founding. (Photo by Adrian Wyld-Pool/Getty Images)

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau meets with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the NATO Summit. | Getty Images

EASY HEADLINES — While touting the Liberal government’s “profoundly serious” approach to defense and a new timeline to hit the NATO spending target, Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU also made sure to underscore that the NATO target is a bit silly.

This became clear when EVAN DYER of CBC News asked the PM at Thursday’s press conference why he doesn’t simply move around the accounting and assets in order to hit the 2-percent of GDP target sooner. “Wouldn't it be simple just to put a C$50,000 gun turret on a C$20-million ship and book it?”

Trudeau dismissed that idea and suggested it would not be a job well done if he just gave “every Coast Guard member a handgun” for the sake of meeting a “crass mathematical calculation.”

Capabilities are important, he said, “not some nominal targets that make for easy headlines and accounting practices, but don't actually make us automatically safer.”

— 2 percent, milked: Trudeau held out until the final day of the NATO summit to announce Canada would hit its alliance spending commitment by 2032.

— Sucker for pain: The strangely timed announcement ensured him a week-long beating in negative headlines and pointed remarks from GOP lawmakers — not to mention from frustrated diplomats in allied nations.

— Didn’t hurt a bit: The PM put on a bold face Thursday and insisted that showing up without a plan pre-announced had not created any political problems during the past week.

— Shopping list: A news release from Defense Minister BILL BLAIR’s office listed 10 military capabilities the government has on its shopping list that will vault Canada over the mark, including the (up to) 12 subs it announced this week that it wants to purchase.— MIA: Evidence for the argument, like ballpark costs — not to mention a notion of how the government will pay for it all.

— Spotted potted: Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY stood silently during most of the PM’s 35-minute newser, though grabbed the mic as it was wrapping to get in a few words.

— Spotted in the NATO summit media filing center: The NATO charter behind a protective case; $24 KAMALA HARRIS scented candles in the gift shop; a Lincoln Memorial photo stand-in; copies of the “Gettysburg Address”; a pigeon.

Related NATO headlines from POLITICO: 

— Nervous world leaders greet Biden at NATO.
— Trump to meet with Orbán in Florida after NATO summit.
— Trudeau pledges Canada will hit 2 percent NATO target — by 2032.
— 2 percent on defense? That is so last year.

WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN


UP: Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE, who delivered a well-received speech on reconciliation — with notable dissenters — at the Assembly of First Nations gathering before headlining a Montreal fundraiser in a target riding that seemed unwinnable a year ago.

DOWN: The pressure on Canada to come up with a NATO timeline.

MEDIA ROOM

President Joe Biden holds a news conference.

U.S. President Joe Biden at a news conference last night in Washington. | Kent Nishimura/Getty Images

— ALEX PANETTA of CBC News writes: In do-or-die mode, Biden does neither.

— The Star’s MARK RAMZY has the backstory on JONATHAN PEDNEAULT’s resignation from the Green Party.

— From KERRY SLACK of APTN News: Some First Nations leaders turn their backs on PIERRE POILIEVRE.

— IAN BRODIE's latest question for federal Conservatives dreaming of power: Is there such a thing as too big a victory?

— Former Winnipeg Free Press and Globe and Mail editor SARAH LILLEYMAN is suing Google, claiming the tech giant fired her for being pregnant. The National Post’s ADRIAN HUMPHREYS has details on the case.

PROZONE


Catch the latest POLITICO Canada newsletter for Pro subscribers from SUE ALLAN, KYLE DUGGAN and DOUG PALMER: PM defends DPM, “a close friend and ally.” 

→ Don’t miss:  POLITICO Pro will host a webinar to debrief what you need to know about the NATO summit with a discussion led Senior Policy Editor JAN CIENSKI and our own KYLE DUGGAN, ALEX WARD, LAURA KAYALI, PAUL MCLEARY and STUART LAU.

In other news for Pro readers:  

— House Republicans increase pressure on USTR to take action on Canada’s DST.

— US, Canada and Finland to challenge Russia and China in the Arctic.

— Biden, Trudeau reach initial deal on Columbia River Treaty.

— Turbulence over mining likely at UN seabed agency’s annual meeting.

— Biden takes aim at China with new steel, aluminum tariffs.

 

Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS


Birthdays: HBD to Mississauga-Malton MP IQWINDER GAHEER, former chief electoral officer of Elections Canada JEAN-PIERRE KINGSLEY, retired Sen. SABI MARWAH, journalist MICHELE LANDSBERG, Saskatchewan Cabmin DON MCMORRIS, Alberta lawyer KARAMVEER LALH and to former MP ANDY SAVOY. 

Celebrating Saturday: MILA MULRONEY, Crestview Strategy’s WILL WUEHR and former MP and current B.C. Cabinet minister NATHAN CULLEN. 

Celebrating Sunday: Minister of Employment RANDY BOISSONNAULT, retired Sen. JIM MUNSON, Ottawa Mayor MARK SUTCLIFFE, former publisher RUSSELL MILLS (80!) and former mayor and MP ED HOLDER (70!).

Birthdays, gatherings, social notices for this community: Send them our way.

Movers and shakers: TED LAKING, a Whitehorse city councilor, is running for the federal Conservative nomination in Yukon, where 338Canada projects a CPC/NDP toss-up.

Danish Ambassador HANNE FUGL ESKJÆR is saying goodbye to Ottawa for a new posting as her country’s ambassador to France. Replacing her will be Ambassador-designate JARL FRIJS-MADSEN, who starts Aug. 1.

CAROLYN SVONKIN is no longer press secretary for Energy Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON. She was promoted into a new role this week as DComm for Women and Gender Equality and Youth Minister MARCI IEN — “WAGEY” for short.

Send Playbookers tips to ottawaplaybook@politico.com .

TRIVIA


Thursday’s answer: JOYCE MURRAY helped to co-found Brinkman Reforestation Ltd.

Props to DARRYL DAMUDE, JOHN MERRIMAN, BOB GORDON, PATRICK DION, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, MALCOLM MCKAY, GERRY THORNE, IAN GLYNWILLIAMS and MARCEL MARCOTTE. 

Friday’s question: Who wrote the following: “Travel a thousand miles by train and you are a brute; pedal five hundred on a bicycle and you remain basically a bourgeois; paddle a hundred in a canoe and you are already a child of nature.”

Answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Writing Monday’s Ottawa Playbook: NICK TAYLOR-VAISEY

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan and Luiza Ch. Savage.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

 

Follow us on Twitter

Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey

Sue Allan @susan_allan

Kyle Duggan @Kyle_Duggan

Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum

POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa

 

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