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More of the same? How Kamala Harris views tax policy

Presented by The American Investment Council: Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Tax examines the latest news in tax politics and policy.
Jul 22, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Bernie Becker

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The American Investment Council

SO, IT HAPPENED: And then in a flash, President Joe Biden announced that he wouldn’t seek reelection, not even four months before the November elections.

All signs currently point to Vice President Kamala Harris now being the Democratic nominee, and facing former President Donald Trump in the fall.

Harris has some different ideas and approaches than Biden on key issues, as our various policy teams noted on Sunday.

But at least in the broad strokes, it’s difficult to imagine the vice president talking all that differently on taxes than the president, as Pro Tax’s Brian Faler noted.

No surprise there, either: Democrats seem to be growing only more confident that Republicans are vulnerable on the argument that they’re too willing to cut taxes for the rich and corporations.

It’s understandably been overshadowed, but Biden made Trump’s tax cuts the centerpiece of his concluding statement in that now even more historic June debate. Whether Harris would make taxes quite so central a focus isn’t clear yet, but it’s easy to imagine her continuing to toss out statements like this:

“Pull up the split screen. Whereas the last administration gave tax cuts to billionaires, we gave tax cuts to families through the Child Tax Credit, which cut child poverty in America by half,” the vice president said at a campaign stop in North Carolina last week.

WELL, HOW ABOUT THAT. Who knows the number of lazy, Wolf Spritzer-fueled Sundays that were just upended.

Another sort of year of living dangerously: Today marks 41 years since an Australian man named Dick Smith completed the first solo around-the-world helicopter flight — a journey that took him around 50 weeks and began and ended in Texas, of course.

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Email: bbecker@politico.com, bfaler@politico.com, bguggenheim@politico.com and teckert@politico.com.

You can also reach us on X, formerly Twitter, at @berniebecker3, @Brian_Faler, @ben_guggenheim, @tobyeckert, @POLITICOPro and @Morning_Tax.

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LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD: Democrats continue to believe their 2021 expansion of the CTC into a monthly payment program still has some political potency, as the vice president’s comments last week show.

And as it happens, Harris’ 2020 presidential campaign — when she essentially proposed a souped-up version of the Earned Income Tax Credit — also suggests she would be interested in using the tax code as president to deliver benefits to families, as Brian also noted.

If Harris did defeat Trump in November, she would also become central to the upcoming debate over how to handle a collection of provisions from the GOP’s 2017 tax law that expire at the end of next year.

That would be a potential opportunity for Democrats to pound the table once more for a further expansion of the Child Tax Credit. Note, for instance, that Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) — who also ran for president in 2020 and has been a longtime champion for the monthly child allowance — cited Harris’ support for expanding the CTC in the second sentence of his endorsement of the vice president.

Meanwhile, the official GOP platform for 2024, and most GOP officeholders, are calling for a full extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act — which itself included a doubling of the CTC, from a maximum of $1,000 to $2,000 per eligible child per year.

The rest of the book on Harris and taxes: The current vice president’s 2020 campaign sputtered so severely that it actually finished in 2019. But it’s worth noting that she didn’t get behind the kind of plan that dominated the Democrats’ debate on taxes during that primary campaign — the wealth tax sought by Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).

Harris did propose a financial transactions tax, another idea that has a lot of support among progressives, during that campaign. Still, campaign tax plans are known to be highly aspirational, and it would be a surprise if Democrats’ wish list for revenue-raisers in 2025 — currently centered on ideas like raising the 21 percent corporate rate — change much even with the upcoming shift atop the ticket.

WELCOME BACK, CONGRESS: Speaking of things getting overshadowed — the Senate is expected to start consideration of Biden’s Tax Court nominees in the coming days, as we noted last week.

What’s less clear is whether Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer brings the bipartisan tax bill negotiated by Senate Finance Chair Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) and House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) up for a vote before the upcoming August recess.

The end result would likely be the same, either way — the bill that includes a more modest expansion of the CTC and a revival of key business tax breaks probably wouldn’t pass if it does reach the floor due to GOP opposition.

Among other things, that measure also would end the Employee Retention Credit, the pandemic-era relief program for businesses that became a magnet for questionable claims, retroactive to January — or more than a year before its current finish date.

With the program likely to stick around, the IRS has started getting more nudging from the Hill on getting more ERC dollars out the door, after the agency installed a moratorium on new claims in September.

Erin Collins, the national taxpayer advocate, has also suggested that the IRS has become too cautious in approving ERC claims, at the expense of businesses in need. And just last week, former IRS chief Chuck Rettig explicitly made that argument as well in an opinion piece for Fortune.

The IRS has suggested that between 150,000 and 300,000 of the claims currently caught in a backlog are lower-risk, and Rettig wrote last week that the agency should move quickly to pay those out.

So stay tuned to see if there is much more of a pressure campaign here: “Instead of issuing mass denial letters to bad applicants, the service should be getting the good claims out the door and fulfilling the ERC’s design of helping small businesses in need,” said Ryan Taylor, a spokesperson for the Coalition to Preserve American Jobs, a group organized specifically to lobby on this issue.

 

Live briefings, policy trackers, and procedural, industry, and people intelligence from POLITICO Pro Analysis gives you the insights you need to focus your policy strategy this election cycle. Secure your seat. 

 
 
Around the World

NBC News: “Barcelona will raise tourist tax for cruise passengers, mayor says.”

The Guardian: “Luxury ute tax loophole costs Australians $250m a year, researchers say.”

Reuters: “Ultra-rich entrepreneurs threaten to desert Britain over tax.”

 

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Around the Nation

Nebraska Examiner: “Gov. Pillen releases ‘Nebraska’s plan’ for property tax relief with few new concrete details.”

Kansas City Star: “Mike Kehoe helped raise Missouri’s gas tax. Will voters punish him in governor’s race?”

MassLive: “Legal advocates say bill could help homeowners pay past-due property taxes.”

 

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Also Worth Your Time

Pro Trade: “Canada warns Trump about ‘real world’ costs of 10 percent tariff.”

Tax Notes: “Federal Corporate Tax Payments Surge in 2024.”

Bloomberg Tax: “IRS Research Credit Proposal Roils Taxpayers Even After Tweaks.”

Did you know?

Australians and New Zealanders use the term ute — an abbreviation for utility vehicle — for pickup trucks.

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Did you know that the private equity industry directly employs 12 million workers and invests in every Congressional district? The sector is critical in supporting American workers and their families, driving groundbreaking innovation, and helping to grow the U.S. economy. Watch our new video to see how many private equity-backed companies are offering workers ownership and the opportunity to build wealth for their families.

 
 

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