| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg, Alexander Ward and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  People walk and ride scooters through security fencing, by the Walter E. Washington Convention Center, which has been draped with signage ahead of the NATO Summit, on July 8, 2024. | Jacquelyn Martin/AP | With help from Phelim Kine, Nahal Toosi, Daniel Lippman, Miles J. Herszenhorn Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric ‘Twas the night before the NATO Summit, when all through Washington, many a creature was stirring, especially NatSec Daily readers. It’s going to be a busy week at the summit which starts Tuesday, and we all could use a guide to the biggest discussions taking place: Ukraine-Russia: Easily the most prominent topic will be how the alliance can further help Kyiv defend itself against Moscow’s invasion. Members are largely expected to discuss how to support Ukraine amid its war against Russia, and Kyiv will walk away with some security guarantees (albeit no invitation to the club). “I’m watching to see if NATO’s package on Ukraine is enough — from Kyiv’s perspective,” said KATHLEEN McINNIS, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “They know membership isn’t on the table at this moment, but are these interim steps sufficient to help Ukraine win this fight?” The vibe ahead of the summit regarding Ukraine is “uncertainty” and “anxiety,” said KRISTINE BERZINA, managing director of Geostrategy North at the German Marshall Fund. The U.S. president: President JOE BIDEN is playing host at the summit, which means that he’ll have to show up to a lot of events and shake a lot of hands. With swirling concerns about his health and capacity to serve, there’s little room for gaffes as the world leaders make their own assessments on how fit Biden is to serve a second term. “The president insisted we host this summit. He’s looking forward to it. I am too. Same for the allies,” JULIE SMITH, the U.S. ambassador to NATO, said in response to a question from NatSec Daily. “This is a huge week for the alliance. Nothing is going to affect that.” Separately, during a public event hosted by Foreign Policy, Smith said she recently briefed Biden on the upcoming events and “he ended up peppering me with loads of questions that were tough to answer. I don't have concerns [about his abilities]. I know he's looking forward to this week in Washington." Biden has to have a good week, as a looming second DONALD TRUMP presidency — and what that would mean for the alliance’s future — will be on everyone’s mind. Defense spending: European defense spending will also take a front seat, as allies worry that a second Trump presidency could cause the military bloc to fracture. On note closer to home, Canada’s defense commitment will come into question during the summit. In recent years, Ottawa has become an outlier in the alliance, failing to hit domestic military spending goals and falling short on benchmarks to fund new equipment, with no plans to get there. The odd one out: Hungarian Prime Minister VIKTOR ORBÁN is trying to use his new European leadership role to position himself as an international peace broker, accusing the West of fueling the war ahead of his appearance at the summit. Today, Orbán made a surprise visit to Beijing, during which Chinese leader XI JINPING called for a worldwide effort to push Russia and Ukraine toward a “cease-fire” and praised the prime minister for his apparent efforts. Three days ago, Orbán met with Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN in Moscow, which angered numerous European politicians. Asked today whether he spoke with the Russian leader about Moscow possibly striking NATO members, Orbán called the idea “ridiculous.” The West, the prime minister implied, is blocking the path to peace. Washington has adopted a “war policy” amid the Russia -Ukraine conflict as opposed to China’s peace plan, and Europe is simply following America’s lead. “Based on my interactions with Hungarian diplomats at NATO, I expect he will try to keep a lower profile when the alliance convenes,” said CHRISTOPHER CHIVVIS, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “I think he will go along with the NATO consensus position on Ukraine in the communique.” Indo-Pacific issues: South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and Japan are headed to the summit too. The threat from North Korea is on the agenda, as well as Chinese aggression in the region. Soaring tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea will likely be a hot topic this week. Philippine ambassador to the U.S. JOSE MANUEL “BABE” DEL GALLEGO ROMUALDEZ said he hopes NATO members continue calling out Beijing for its actions and use channels of communication to speak with China about peacefully resolving tensions. “Most of the [NATO] countries realize that anything that happens to our part of the world will certainly affect the entire universe. It affects what's happening right now in Europe,” he said.
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NATO deterrence is strongest when allies work as one force. Lockheed Martin enables NATO interoperability with defense tech solutions that connect allies across domains. Learn more. | | | | | SOFTENING THE CEASE-FIRE: Some U.S. and Middle East officials believe Hamas has been pushed to soften its cease-fire demands due to the level of destruction of Gaza throughout the war, The Associated Press’ JON GAMBRELL reports. Over the weekend, the militant group appeared to drop its longstanding condition that Israel agree to a permanent cease-fire as part of any deal, raising hopes that a pause in fighting will come soon. On Sunday, Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU — who is facing mounting criticism and protests domestically — credited Israel’s devastating military operation as having “led Hamas to enter negotiations.” Messages between several top Hamas figures in Gaza who urged leaders to accept President JOE BIDEN’s cease-fire deal seem to back that up. As the AP writes, the messages “described the heavy losses Hamas has suffered on the battlefield and the dire conditions in the war-ravaged territory … the messages indicate divisions within the group and a readiness among top militants to reach a deal quickly, even if Hamas’ top official in Gaza, YAHYA SINWAR, may not be in a rush.” Even so, Israel’s operations in Gaza don’t appear to be slowing down. Israel’s military today stormed Gaza City, saying that Hamas still operates there following heavy fighting in the area months earlier, The Wall Street Journal’s STEPHEN KALIN reports. IDF troops have operated throughout the city during the latest attacks, including in the U.N. Relief and Works Agency headquarters, the main organization providing aid to Palestinians. KYIV UNDER FIRE: Russia launched a daytime barrage of missiles against Ukraine’s capital Kyiv and targeted a children’s hospital, our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA reports. The attack, which seriously damaged one of Ukraine’s main medical facilities for treating children with cancer, comes as Orbán voiced his support for China’s peace proposal during a surprise visit to Beijing. The Kremlin celebrated Orbán’s “very serious attempt to understand the essence of these disagreements.” Russia, though, is suffering setbacks in its campaign against Ukraine. Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY signed a security pact with the Polish government in Warsaw today. The pact pledges that Poland will support Ukraine if Russia ever attacks it in the future and commits Poland to supporting the growth of Ukraine’s armed forces. Ukraine has also intercepted Russian supplies, The Washington Post’s SIOBHÁN O'GRADY, KOSTIANTYN KHUDOV and SERHIY MORGUNOV report, limiting troops’ access to food and water and slowing their advance on the city of Kharkiv. MODI IN MOSCOW: Orbán was not the only world leader putting his airline miles to use: Indian Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI will meet with Putin today during an official visit to the Kremlin, according to Reuters. The Kremlin announced the face-to-face talks between the two leaders today. The meeting between the two leaders, whose countries have a “special relationship” dating back to the Cold War, will focus on addressing trade imbalances and freeing Indian citizens misled into fighting in Ukraine by Russian recruiters, a top Indian official told Reuters. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.
| | | | Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more. | | | | | | | | THE SOLARWINDS PROBE THAT WASN’T: The U.S. government failed to probe the Solarwinds espionage operation, which saw Russian intelligence steal sensitive documents from key government agencies, even though the White House specifically created a cybersecurity watchdog to investigate the historic and sweeping hack, ProPublica’s CRAIG SILVERMAN reports. Biden in May 2021 ordered the creation of the Cyber Safety Review Board, and dispatched the new monitor, modeled off of the National Transportation Safety Board, to look into the hack. Russian intelligence exploited vulnerable code in Microsoft government software and stole documents from the National Nuclear Safety Administration, the Treasury Department and the National Institutes of Health. But the Cyber Safety Review Board never fully investigated the hack, even as it looked into other successive cyberattacks against Microsoft software from China. The Cyber Safety Review Board, Silverman writes, is not fully independent within the Department of Homeland Security. ROB SILVERS, the board’s director, claims DHS told the group not to probe SolarWinds, arguing that private and public actors had already investigated the attack enough. A DHS spokesperson rejected claims that a review of SolarWinds would have helped prevent successive hacks, telling ProPublica: “The two incidents were quite different in that regard, and we do not believe a review of SolarWinds would have necessarily uncovered the gaps identified in the Board’s latest report.”
| | LEAVING NIGER: U.S. forces have fully withdrawn from a base in Niger’s capital Niamey, the Pentagon announced today, as relations between Washington and one of its former allies in the Sahel hit a low point following a Russian-backed coup. In a statement issued this morning, the Pentagon said that the U.S. has formally handed over Air Base 101, which was used as a cooperative security location for both countries’ militaries, ahead of schedule. They are now focusing on withdrawing from a major drone base at Agadez, once one of the main U.S. outposts in the fight against jihadist groups in Africa.
| | KYIV ON THE HILL: Some Republican and Democratic supporters of Ukraine are at odds over how aid for the country is playing with voters, our own MILES J. HERSZENHORN writes in. At Foreign Policy’s “NATO in a New Era” event today, House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair MICHAEL MCCAUL (R-Texas) said that some Republicans who voted in favor of increased aid to Ukraine expected to take a beating from their constituents only to find that it never came. “We thought the backlash, politically, was going to be far more severe than it actually is,” McCaul said. “Nobody wants to see the United States lose. American people don’t like losers, we like winners.” But Rep. JAKE AUCHINCLOSS (D-Mass.) shot back at McCaul. He said he believed that two-thirds of Congress could keep Trump in check if he wins back the presidency and attempts to pull support for Ukraine, but he was less convinced that two-thirds of Congress will remain largely pro-Ukraine. “I got great respect for Mike, I think he’s one of the good ones on the other side of the aisle,” Auchincloss. “I’m watching the vote board. I’m not seeing it. A majority of the Republican caucus is going back to an American-first isolationism.” “I’m very worried about the two-thirds,” he added.
| | | | POLITICO AND WELT EVENT TUESDAY 7/9: Join POLITICO and WELT for a roundtable discussion on July 9 with the top defense officials in NATO countries that share a border with Russia, including Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. These are the crucial officials tasked with armoring these front-line states against Vladimir Putin’s aggressive expansionism. We will discuss how they are adapting to this new period of danger and explore the future of the NATO alliance and their relationship with the United States. Register here. | | | | | | | | PACT IN THE ASIA PACIFIC: Tokyo and Manila signed a major defense pact that will see Japanese troops conduct drills in the Philippines, The Associated Press’ JIM GOMEZ and HARUKA NUGA report. The deal, once unimaginable given the bloody history of Japanese atrocities against Philippines civilians during the Second World War, comes as both countries seek to thwart an ascendant China. Tensions between China and the Philippines have rapidly deteriorated in the South China Sea, as China accuses Philippines warships of damaging contested reefs and atolls in the disputed waters. India will also host military drills with Japan, Australia and the United States in the South China Sea, as it looks to flex its own muscle in the region. ECOWAS WANTS MORE: The Economic Community of West African States is frustrated with the lack of progress in restoring civilian rule in coup-afflicted Sahel countries, according to Reuters’ OPE ADETAYO. The West African bloc had issued an ultimatum to the junta in Niamey in the aftermath of last year’s Russian-backed coup, but has struggled to gain traction with Niger and other countries that have experienced military takeovers, which also include Mali and Burkina Faso. Those three have left the influential bloc and formed their own alliance.
| | | |   | | | | | — French President EMMANUEL MACRON rejected Prime Minister GABRIEL ATTAL’s resignation after the country’s snap legislative elections saw no party take an absolute majority in the parliament. While Macron’s party lost a large number of seats, the results are seen to have stanched gains from France’s ascendant far-right National Rally Party. Meanwhile, a Kremlin spokesperson said Russia’s hopes for smoothing over relations with France were dashed by the results of the election. We recommend reading POLITICO Europe Editor-in-Chief JAMIL ANDERLINI’s new piece about Macron’s political maneuvers. — Iranian voters have elected surgeon-turned-reformist MASOUD PEZESHKIAN as the country’s next president. Pezeshkian, who defeated ultra-conservative cleric SAEED JALILI, wants to resume talks with the West over the future of Iran’s nuclear program and has promised to curb the country’s controversial morality police. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — JESSICA LEWIS will leave the State Department next week, where she served as assistant secretary for political-military affairs, according to a senior State Department official. STANLEY BROWN, the current principal deputy assistant secretary, will become the acting assistant secretary for political military affairs. — KATERYNA ODARCHENKO has joined the Atlantic Council’s UkraineAlert platform as a contributing author. Odarchenko is a partner at SIC Group USA and leads the nonprofit Institute for Democracy and Development PolitA. — NIKODEM RACHOŃ has left as head of the communications section at the Polish Embassy in Washington. He is joining the Polish president's media team in Warsaw. — SAM LAHOOD is joining Bondi Partners as director of government affairs. He most recently was at the International Republican Institute, and is a Bush State, McCain campaign and Trump advance alum. — SHELBY WEISS has joined the Washington Institute for Near East Policy as a communications associate.
| | — NAHAL TOOSI, POLITICO: Hungary’s Orbán has taken sides in America's election. Maybe other leaders should, too — LAURA TEDESCO and RUT DIAMINT, Americas Quarterly: In Latin America, the U.S. is relying too much on its military — MATHIEU DROIN, KELLY A. GRIECO and HAPPYMON JACOB, Foreign Affairs: Why NATO should stay out of Asia
| | — North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 7 a.m.: 2024 Washington summit — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 8 a.m.: A complete impasse - Gaza: The human toll. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 8 a.m.: Is NATO a good deal? Making the case for the alliance to the public. — The Hudson Institute, 9 a.m.: The Iran threat to U.S.-NATO security. — The Hudson Institute, 9 a.m.: America’s foreign policy challenges. — The German Marshall Fund of the United States, 9 a.m.: Discussion of a new report on “China-Russia Alignment: A Threat to Europe's Security.” — The Atlantic Council, 9:30 a.m.: The Nordic-Baltic region: Cooperation in NATO's northeast. — POLITICO, 9 a.m.: On the front line: A conversation with defense ministers. — United States Institute of Peace, 10 a.m.: Empowering Guatemalan youth. — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.: Ukraine and Transatlantic Security on the Eve of the NATO Summit. — Council on Foreign Relations, 12 p.m.: Discussion on Greece's strategic defense efforts, featuring Greek Prime Minister KYRIAKOS MITSOTAKIS. — The Atlantic Council, 12:30 p.m.: Turkey's emerging defense technologies and the future of NATO. — The Cato Institute, 1 p.m.: NATO at 75: Rebalancing the transatlantic alliance. — The Hudson Institute, 2 p.m.: The prospects for Ukraine and the outlook for Lithuanian security, featuring Lithuanian Foreign Minister GABRIELIUS LANDSBERGIS. — United States Institute of Peace, 3 p.m.: Strengthening security through democratic resilience. — The Hudson Institute, 4 p.m.: Moldova’s foreign policy and the Washington summit, featuring Moldovan Deputy Prime Minister MIHAI POPSOI. Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is a terrible host. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who throws the best parties in Washington.
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For 75 years, Lockheed Martin has been a trusted partner to NATO, keeping allies ahead of emerging threats. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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