THE SPIRIT IN ST. LOUIS Rep. Cori Bush (D-Mo.) wants to avoid the same fate Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) met in her reelection bid. But the progressive “Squad” member might find herself in a similar spot as her ally when St. Louis voters go to the polls in a little more than a month. Bowman’s Hill colleagues stressed his loss was largely due to the millions spent by AIPAC and other outside groups, along with his own personal problems, rather than his progressive policy positions. The limited polling in the race shows Bush in potentially better shape than Bowman, who’d been badly lagging in polls leading up to the primary. But her brutal primary fight is just the latest entry in the ongoing Democratic rift over Israel and Gaza and the latest proxy battle between wings of the Democratic Party. If Bush loses her bid for renomination, the entire “Squad” class of 2020 (who both came to office by primarying longtime incumbents) will have been wiped out. And it will deprive the “Squad” of two rising stars in the party as Democrats angle to flip the House this fall. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Democratic leaders endorsed Bush, POLITICO reported first on Tuesday, handing her a boost before next month’s primary. Here’s what we’re watching: A progressive challenger: Depending on who you ask, the race is either a progressive-on-progressive matchup or a progressive vs. a Democrat in name only. Bush is facing a strong primary challenge from St. Louis Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell, who was elected in 2018 as a reform-minded prosecutor in the wake of the Black Lives Matter movement. On domestic policy, there’s not much daylight between the candidates. But the two significantly diverge on Israel. While Bush has been outspoken against Israel, Bell has reiterated time and time again that he backs the U.S. providing support for the country after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack. Bush and her allies strenuously deny Bell’s characterization as a progressive, pointing to some of his past political work managing a Republican friend’s congressional campaign and donor overlap with the GOP. For Bush and her progressive allies, the contest has great meaning. “For us it is very personal because we're here trying to give voice to people who have been left out of the democratic processes,” said Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.). “I don't worry, I work. And I'll be working hard to make sure Cori Bush can return here so that we can continue to do this work,” said Rep. Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.). Personal issues and problems at home: Bush’s struggles at home left her vulnerable to a primary challenge. Like Bowman, she’s been an outspoken advocate for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war, and has advocated for Palestinians in ways that have sometimes rubbed Jewish constituents the wrong way. Although her district has a smaller Jewish population than Bowman’s district in the New York City suburbs, it could still make the difference in a low-turnout primary. “I know that a number of her supporters from the Jewish community are angry with her but I don’t know what that has translated into in terms of the election,” said Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.), who’s staying neutral in the primary. (He’d been close to then-Rep. Lacy Clay, whom Bush had defeated in the 2020 primary.) Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), a co-chair of the Progressive Caucus’ political arm, encouraged Bush to shore up her alliances back home. “Incumbents who have to spend time actually working in Washington and doing their jobs need to get back into their district and go and see everybody and talk to everybody and answer any questions anybody's got,” he said. Also looming over the race: The federal investigation into Bush’s campaign spending on security services. Bush’s now-husband had worked security for her and been paid by her campaign, and her other security contractors have drawn further scrutiny for their controversial backgrounds. She’s denied any wrongdoing and said she would cooperate with the investigation. But like Bowman’s fire alarm incident last year, the investigation into Bush has provided ample fodder for her critics. Equal AIPAC problems: Looming over the race is AIPAC, which has pledged to take out incumbents who it views as anti-Israel. The nearly $15 million the group’s affiliated super PAC, the United Democracy Project, spent in Bowman’s race helped make it the most expensive House primary in history. Progressive Caucus leaders had asked Democratic leadership to urge AIPAC to back off from their primaries, but it appears their appeals were unsuccessful. “AIPAC to my mind, is a MAGA Republican entity and so the Democratic leadership will have very limited maneuverability to ask them to do anything,” Raskin said. The well-resourced group has already endorsed Bell and has started spending in his race, drawing condemnation from progressive groups. But the flood of money is likely to swamp spending by Bush and her liberal allies. Progressive leaders projected confidence and said they’d put more resources into Bush’s race. “We’re going to try to put a little more in,” said Progressive Caucus Chair Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), who said her leadership PAC (Medicare for All PAC) would also spend for Bush. She hinted that part of the support liberals would lend Bush would come more on the organizational side of the race: “I think it has more to do with making sure we’re shoring up certain parts of her coalition in the district.” But Jayapal acknowledged: “What do you do when $20 million comes into a race?” — Nicholas Wu, with an assist from Daniella Diaz
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