The return to Earth of two astronauts is unexpectedly up in the air (no pun intended) — and so is the future of NASA’s game-changing partnership with private industry. In June, two astronauts successfully reached the International Space Station in Boeing’s Starliner capsule after its maiden crewed voyage faced a lengthy series of delays. Astronauts Barry Wilmore and Sunita Williams initially planned to spend a week in space, but more than eight weeks later, they’re still up there, hampered by malfunctioning thrusters. Steve Stich, the manager of NASA’s Commercial Crew Program that coordinates between government and the space industry, emphasized at a July press conference that the two astronauts are “not stranded in space.” Instead, he said the extended trip is meant to “make sure we’re not missing anything before we commit to undocking and landing,” in an interview with The Atlantic. NASA did not immediately respond to a request from DFD for comment. Stranded or not, the unexpectedly prolonged trip for Starliner could have major repercussions not just for the already-troubled program, but the partnership with the private sector that’s come to define modern-day NASA and its ambitions for the future. “It would be a real black eye for Boeing and its Starliner program if the crew does not return on their capsule,” said Todd Harrison, a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who studies space policy. NASA currently partners with Boeing and SpaceX for its Commercial Crew Program, which ferries astronauts to the ISS. While SpaceX’s Crew Dragon has been certified for work shuttling astronauts between the station and Earth and already launched several successful missions, Starliner’s program is still in test mode after the craft was hobbled by numerous delays and scuttled launches. Harrison said that NASA will almost certainly remain committed to having two contractors for the Commercial Crew Program’s flights to and from the International Space Station, but if the Starliner suffers further setbacks and Boeing decides to pull the plug, as market analysts have sometimes speculated, it could set the entire program back by years. “If Boeing were to back out, that creates a bigger problem for NASA,” Harrison said. “They would need to reopen the competition quickly, and it could be years before another company is ready to test a different capsule.” If the Starliner craft isn’t ready to come down safely, its astronauts might have to hitch a potentially awkward ride home. (Boeing rated the capsule’s batteries for a 45-day trip, a threshold it’s now surpassed by more than two weeks.) One Reddit observer mused that NASA could send a SpaceX Crew Dragon shuttle to retrieve Wilmore and Williams — an outcome the wag described as calling a “space Uber.” That might not just be idle speculation: Science and tech news website Ars Technica reported Monday that NASA will delay a Crew Dragon launch to the ISS currently planned for August 18, as the agency considers leaving two seats open for the wayward Boeing-borne crew. Separately, Ars Technica’s Eric Berger reported that NASA issued an award of $266,678 to SpaceX on July 14 for a “special study for emergency response” that would explore the possibility of flying back with additional astronauts. On Friday, Boeing announced it remains “confident in the Starliner spacecraft and its ability to return safely with crew” and “continue[s] to support NASA’s requests for additional testing, data, analysis and reviews to affirm the spacecraft’s safe undocking and landing capabilities.” The company did not respond to a request from DFD for further comment. The venerable firm, already plagued by a mid-air cabin panel blowout this year and two deadly plane crashes in 2018 and 2019, remains publicly committed to its spaceflight project. Ultimately, however, the market might decide its fate — and therefore that of one of NASA’s key commercial partnerships. When I spoke in June with Greg Autry, director of the Thunderbird Initiative at Arizona State University and liaison to NASA for former President Donald Trump’s transition team, he described Boeingas facing a “reputational issue that nobody can ignore” and suggested that caution would guide their every move in space. “Boeing cannot have a failure,” Autry said. “Boeing is a public company accountable to shareholders, and when public pressure comes along the board has to respond to it.”
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