| | | | |  | | By Kyle Duggan with Philippe J. Fournier | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Ottawa Playbook | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it. In today's edition: → PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER previews the campaigns to come in 2024. → ArriveCAN returns to the spotlight at House committee. → Trump revives a rumor; Harris picks a running mate. |  | FROM THE DESK OF 338CANADA | |
Good morning! It’s PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER, guest host of today's Ottawa Playbook. Let’s nerd out together.
RED OCTOBER — Three provinces will hold elections in October. Last week in this space, we looked at the race in British Columbia where decision day is booked for Oct. 19. Today, let’s peek at New Brunswick, which will go to the polls Oct. 21, and Saskatchewan, which will vote a week later. — What we don’t know: While we can assume parties have commissioned internal numbers, we have not seen publicly available polling from either province since last winter. — Four “Moe” years? — The Angus Reid Institute’s latest poll in Saskatchewan was fielded in March and measured a comfortable 12-point lead for Premier SCOTT MOE’s incumbent Saskatchewan Party over the New Democrats (50 to 38 percent). The numbers suggest tighter competition than in 2020 when Moe won by a 29-point margin. But these numbers are five months old, so we’re going to have to wait for fresh data. Moe's government has been a thorn in the side of the Trudeau government on several issues, especially on the carbon tax. — Holt versus Higgs: In New Brunswick, Premier BLAINE HIGGS and his Progressive Conservatives are gunning for a third term. The New Brunswick Liberals, now led by SUSAN HOLT, are hoping to return to power. The most recent polls publicly available out of the province are the small-sample quarterly Narrative Research polls. During the past year, the firm has measured the Liberals ahead by margins of 2 to 6 points over the PC. — FPTP moment: In terms of seats, a small Liberal lead would likely translate to a PC win, since the Liberals often run up the score in Acadian ridings. Remember the 2018 result? Brian Gallant’s Liberals won the popular vote by 6 points provincewide, but still lost by one seat to Higgs and the PC. — Green king makers: It’s possible in New Brunswick that neither the PCs nor the Liberals will reach the 25-seat threshold for a majority in the legislature. In that case, the balance of power would fall on DAVID COON’s Green Party, which is projected as the favorite in a handful of ridings. | | | DRIVING THE DAY | |
DOG (AND PONY) DAYS OF SUMMER — The House summer committee circuit revs up later today to focus on the government contracting scandal surrounding the ArriveCAN app.
It will cast the spotlight on government mismanagement during the summer slow-news stretch and grant opposition politicians the chance to hunt for spicy clips for their socials. — Star of the show: Public accounts committee convenes to hear from DIANE DALY, who dealt with procurement for the Canada Border Services Agency. — Context: Auditor General KAREN HOGAN revealed earlier this year the project suffered from soaring costs, bad project management and cozy relationships between contractors and the public service that appear to be conflicts of interest. She found GC Strategies was involved in developing the requirements CBSA included in the request for proposal, which the firm eventually won. Conservative MP GARNETT GENUIS posted on social media a “very important official in the Trudeau government’s #ArriveScam scandal will be testifying this week” and “we’ll be getting new information this week on what exactly took place" with the “rigged” contracting process. — The details: Daly’s name has come up a few times, notably when GC Strategies’ KRISTIAN FIRTH was questioned in the House of Commons in April and he confirmed he discussed project criteria with Daly for a contract eventually awarded to his firm. Canada’s chief technology officer MINH DOANtestified before committee he “would have thought that [Firth] would have dealt with somebody a little bit more senior.” The Globe had reported Daly had sent strongly worded emails to contracting firms involved, after one of the subcontractors, Botler, complained it hadn’t been paid. — Theme of the week: Another ArriveCAN hearing is set for Thursday to hear from Ethics Commissioner KONRAD VON FINCKENSTEIN. — Elsewhere on the Hill: Conservative House Leader ANDREW SCHEER is pressing the Bloc and NDP to recall the public safety committee and haul Public Safety Minister DOMINIC LEBLANC and officials in front of the cameras for a grilling on a recent terrorism case — Context: RCMP said last week officers arrested and charged a father and son alleged to have plotted a Toronto terrorist attack with the Islamic State group. “This is a colossal failure of Trudeau’s national security system,” Scheer told reporters at a news conference in the House foyer Tuesday, alongside Deputy House Leader LUC BERTHOLD. “Canadians have a right to know what went wrong, how this individual gained entry into Canada and obtain Canadian citizenship.” More on this in the National Post from STEPHANIE TAYLOR. — What next: If last week’s status of women committee hearing was any indication, strap in for more summertime partisan slugfests at the committee tables. — In related reading: “Gone are the days when committees actually did serious work — everything is now a performance for the cameras,” DALE SMITH writes at Loonie Politics. | | | | During unprecedented times, POLITICO Pro Analysis gives you the insights you need to focus your policy strategy. Live briefings, policy trackers, and and people intelligence secures your seat at the table. Learn more. | | | | | | | 2024 WATCH | | |  Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump on stage in Grand Rapids, Michigan, last month. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO | HARD RUMOR TO QUASH — When Republican nominee DONALD TRUMP did a 90-minute livestream interview with online influencer ADIN ROSS in a bid to reach young voters, he was asked to share his impressions about world leaders. And when JUSTIN TRUDEAU’s photo popped up on the screen, Trump blurted out a longstanding falsehood that the late Cuban President FIDEL CASTRO could be Trudeau’s father,citing the ubiquitous “they” as his source. “They say he’s the son of Fidel Castro, and could be — anything’s possible in this world,” Trump said. Not that this needs fact-checking, but PolitiFact has rated the claim in the past as “pants on fire.” — Buried the hatchet?: There were some tense moments between the two when Trump was in the White House. Trump sparred with Trudeau years ago during aggressive trade negotiations, and famously fumed when he was leaving the 2018 G7 summit in Canada bound for North Korea, and dispatched surrogates to the Sunday talk circuit to disparage Trudeau. In 2022 during the Freedom Convoy,he called Trudeau a “far-left lunatic.” But Trump said in the interview, “I get along with him very well, actually,” quickly adding that Trudeau is “going very progressive and the people of Canada are not liking it.” — Blank-check endorsement: “If they had a good conservative person — maybe they do, maybe they don’t — but somebody who’s a strong conservative would win in Canada,” Trump added, seemingly unaware of PIERRE POILIEVRE. “Canada’s very unhappy about the way they’ve been treated as people.” Trudeau spoke to Trump not long after being shot in an assassination attempt, where Trudeau wished him a swift recovery. The next leader Trump was prompted to speak about was North Korean dictator KIM JONG UN: “Now this man I really get along with well.”
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Kamala Harris and her new running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, at a campaign rally in Philadelphia last night. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO | THE PLOT THICKENS — KAMALA HARRIS named Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ as her running mate. If you were not already swept up by the “Walzmentum,” POLITICO Magazine has you covered with 55 things to know about Harris’ pick for VP. There’s also this piece from POLITICO’s CHARLIE MAHTESIAN: “What Walz brings to the Democratic ticket.” — Why Harris picked Walz: POLITICO’s EUGENE DANIELS, ELENA SCHNEIDER, HOLLY OTTERBEIN and CHRISTOPHER CADELAGO explain: “Harris loved Walz’s governing record in Minnesota. His biography and record of winning tough races resonated with her. And most of all, she just really liked him.” — Campaign strategy: MYAH WARD explains what the pick means for the race. — Generational setback: ADAM WREN suggests it might be a long time in the political wilderness for the vice presidential also-rans. — Canada connection: Canada's ambassador to the U.S., KIRSTEN HILLMAN, who had met with him recently in Toronto, told us in a statement that “we know Minnesota Governor Tim Walz well — both at our Embassy in Washington and our Consulate General in Minneapolis — and he knows Canada well.” — What next: After last night's rally in Philadelphia, Harris and her new running mate are embarking on a battleground state tour that will hit western Wisconsin, Detroit, Raleigh, North Carolina, Phoenix and Las Vegas, ZACH MONTELLARO and STEVEN SHEPARD report. | | Where the leaders are | |
— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU has not released his public schedule. (Thoughts on this via PAUL WELLS in our media room below.)
— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Toronto with no public events scheduled. — Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE has not released his itinerary. — Bloc Leader YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET will visit l’Île Brion. — NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH is in Yellowknife with NDP candidate KELVIN KOTCHILEA. They’ll meet with the Dene Nation at 11 a.m. local time. At 6:30 p.m., they will host a town hall at Northern United Place. — Green Party Leader ELIZABETH MAY is in Saanich-Gulf Islands where she plans to spend the day meeting with constituents. | | | DULY NOTED | |
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. and Canadian National Railway Co. will restart negotiations Wednesday with the union representing some 9,300 rail workers under federal mediation, according to a statement from Labor Minister STEVEN MACKINNON earlier this week. 2 p.m. The House public accounts committee will meet to discuss the auditor general's report on ArriveCAN. Witness DIANE DALY, a former Canada Border Services Agency official, has been scheduled for a two-hour session. 4:30 p.m. (5:30 p.m. AT) Treasury Board President ANITA ANAND will join Liberal MP KODY BLOIS at Maritime Express Cider Company in Kentville, Nova Scotia, for a fundraising event. | | MEDIA ROOM | | | | 
Robert Lighthizer on Capitol Hill on June 17, 2020. | Anna Moneymaker/The New York Times via AP | — ROBERT LIGHTHIZER is a rare Trump adviser who survived the first term. And so, if DONALD TRUMP returns to the White House, the former U.S. trade representative is poised to be even more influential, POLITICO’s GAVIN BADE reports. — PAUL WELLS has thoughts on the PM’s itineraries: “They claim in public every day that the PM has ‘no public events scheduled.’ Even though he is in a different city every day. And he has public events scheduled,” Wells writes. “In fact, he is in the city in question so he can attend the public events he claims aren’t on his schedule.” (MP CHARLIE ANGUS says many MPs follow this pattern because of concerns for potential violent threats.) — DONALD J. SAVOIE of Université de Moncton writes in the Globe on the need for rural-urban balance: “Economic imbalance is now less between regions, and more between urban and rural Canada.” — Our colleague ESTHER WEBBER reports from London: PM KEIR STARMER walks straight into summer from hell. — From PETER MILLIKEN and VIKRAM HANDA in the Globe: "Canadians deserve decorum in their Parliament." — On “The Hot Room” pod, PETER MAZEREEUW talked to BEN ROWSWELL, who served as ambassador to Venezuela from 2014 to 2017, about the crisis unfolding in that country.
Today's "Big Story" pod also looks at the electoral standoff. — In case you missed it, EDWARD STRUZIK and KATE LINDSAY joined “The Herle Burly” pod to discuss climate, fires and forest management. | | PROZONE | |
Our latest policy newsletter for Pro subscribers: Canada and Lighthizer 2.0.
In other news for Pro readers: — Why warming makes Arctic shipping more difficult. — Meet the group working on ‘the little pieces’ of carbon removal. — Oil drilling, mining threaten more than 4,600 species, study says. — Manchin, Graham seek to block speed rule that protects whales. — Feds look to the National Guard to help save vulnerable butterfly.
| | PLAYBOOKERS | |
Birthdays: HBD to Canada’s Ambassador to Germany JOHN HORGAN (65), economist CHRIS RAGAN, former MP JIM PANKIW, former McMillan CEO TIM MURPHY and MNA DONALD MARTEL (60).
Massive congrats to POLITICO Canada’s ZI-ANN LUM and her family on the happy arrival of NAOMI LIN on July 29. Spotted: Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU and MP TERRY DUGUID in Winnipeg at an event hosted by Black History Manitoba. Also thanks to CP’s pool report, we know the PM attended a barbecue for health care workers at the Victoria General Hospital. Movers and shakers: MATTHEW CONWAY has joined Maple Leaf Strategies. Media mention: Axios announced Tuesday that it was laying off 10 percent of its staff. The cuts included Ottawa Citizen/BuzzFeed News alumna EMMA LOOP, she announced on X.
| | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | |
9 a.m. (10 a.m. AT): MP MIKE KELLOWAY will be in Chéticamp, Nova Scotia, to make an infrastructure announcement.
9:30 a.m. MP MARK GERRETSEN will be at the Great Lakes Museum in Kingston to make an important announcement in support of tourism growth in Eastern Ontario. 9:30 a.m. MP CHARLES SOUSA will be in Mississauga at a yet-to-be-revealed location to announce an investment in domestic manufacturing of antibody and other protein-based therapies. 9:30 a.m. Health Minister MARK HOLLAND will be at a Bank Street dentistry in Ottawa to make an announcement about the Canadian Dental Care Plan. 10 a.m. (11 a.m. AT): Families, Children and Social Development Minister JENNA SUDDS will be in Moncton with BILL HOGAN, New Brunswick’s minister of education and early childhood development, to make an announcement on early learning. 1:30 p.m. The Bank of Canada will publish a summary of the deliberations that took place ahead of its July 24 interest rate decision. | | | TRIVIA | | |
Tuesday’s answer: It was HEDY FRY who said: “In Cabinet itself, I never felt my color was an issue, and I never felt that being a woman was an issue because all the women in there were mouthy. We were mouthy! We would never sit back and listen.”
Props to BARRY STRADER, NATE MANIS, SARA MAY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, SYDNEY LINHOLM, AMY SCANLON BOUGHNER, LAURA JARVIS, JOANNA PLATER, JOHN MERRIMAN and DENISE SIELE. Wednesday’s question: What event on this date in history attracted British royalty, Prime Minister MACKENZIE KING, U.S. Vice President CHARLES DAWES, Ontario Premier HOWARD FERGUSON, New York Gov. AL SMITH and British Prime Minister STANLEY BALDWIN? Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage. Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.
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