Follow Ryan on Twitter | Follow Zoya Singapore is transitioning away from the Milken Asia Summit to the Formula 1 Grand Prix: Your authors woke up to F1 cars racing around the city this morning as qualifying commenced for Sunday's race. DEMOCRACY FRONTLINE — BRAZIL: Sunday's other race might turn nasty: Brazilians will vote in an election that will test the institutional resilience of the world's fourth-biggest democracy. Incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro threatens to hold onto power no matter what voters say. He promised "arrest, death or victory" as the only outcomes. With former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a left-wing social reformer, leading in polls, Bolsonaro isn't on course for victory. Bolsonaro's opportunity to wreak havoc comes from two-in-three Brazilians (per Gallup) not having confidence in the honesty of elections. You're in good company — you're reading the most influential media outlet for EU decision-makers, according to the 2022 EU media poll by BCW Brussels and Savanta ComRes, announced Thursday. GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK "We haven't seen the bottom" of the market, predicted Rohit Sipahimalani, chief investment officer at Temasek, Singapore's $500 billion sovereign wealth fund, speaking at the Milken Institute Asia Summit in Singapore. He argued that markets still have not priced in the coming recession and earnings decline. "We're in the early innings" of inflation and in a "pre-recession" moment, said Bridgewater senior strategist Jeff Gardner. In numbers, that means: "It's not hard to imagine global stock markets down another 20 to 25 percent." FINANCIERS SLAM U.K.: You've heard of banana republics, but what about a banana monarchy? Moderator Susan Li, from Fox Business, was moved to ask on Milken's main stage if the U.K. remains investable, following the market and currency routs that have greeted the country's recent mini-budget. Asked if Britain was becoming erratic and more like an emerging market, Gardner did not hesitate: "That would be an insult to emerging markets." He added that while Britain isn't in control of some factors dragging its economy down, like Russia-driven energy shocks, it's making a mess of what it does control: "Brexit is a significant damage to the long-term prospects of the U.K." A senior economist at a panel moderated by Global Insider lamented that the British cabinet appeared to be "losing its mind." The Economist magazine is running a section this week on the actions of Prime Minister Liz Truss' team: "How not to run a country." VIEWS ON THE U.S. MIDTERMS AND 2024 With midterm elections voting already underway for overseas voters, Global Insider led a group of mostly bankers and consultants (about half of whom were American) in a discussion about their expectations and concerns about the U.S. Here are some of the most interesting insights, anonymized under the Chatham House Rule. The midterms "50 percent voted for Biden, but only 38 percent approve of him now. It's hard to hold that 12 percent together" to hold off Republicans taking control of Congress. "Democrats do have one clear advantage: money." "Only 34 percent of Americans recognize the name 'Inflation Reduction Act.'" "There's so many different moving variables. I've never seen anything like this" — from someone who's worked on every U.S. election since 1988. Counter-intuitives on Vice President Kamala Harris (quotes are from different individuals) "She's the most authentic politician I've ever met. She swears more than I do." "I think there's a good likelihood that she'll be president, and will run [in 2024] — from the presidency," in the context of Biden's blunders. "There's only so long you can ask a dead congresswoman to come up and get recognition." (Context) "In my opinion, Joe Biden is president because of Kamala Harris. He's a president because of four cities: Atlanta, Philadelphia, Detroit, Milwaukee. An extra 100,000 south Indians or south Asians voted in Georgia, and Biden won by 11,000 votes. And nobody in D.C. ever says that narrative. And that drives me bonkers." "We're in a Nixon-Carter-Reagan cycle. Trump was the Nixon — the unacceptable figure the elites had to get rid of. Biden is the Carter — the happenstance president who wouldn't have gotten elected except for what happened with Trump. We don't know who the Reagan is. It could be Ron DeSantis, it could be a Democrat who wins decisively and takes the country from lurching one way or another, and finds a compass to take the country forward." "The country would like a Newsom-DeSantis race. But if Donald Trump 's the Republican nominee, and Joe Biden is the Democratic nominee, 60 percent say they would support an independent candidate. The opportunity for an Emmanuel Macron — for an independent — to run and win like in France will be there. Imagine Manchin-Cheney." "The independent doesn't have to win. If you get 50 to 100 electoral college votes you might have the balance of power. The electoral college could make a deal." Conundrum: "Voter turnout is rising, and the level of discontent is completely correlated with the level of participation." JULIA GILLARD — 10 YEARS AFTER THAT MISOGYNY SPEECH What's changed since the speech that made then-Australian PM Julia Gillard globally famous? "In many places around the world, we are now having the conversation we used to ignore," she said at the Milken summit. Why women's equality programs haven't worked: Gillard, Australia's only female prime minister, said the reason the world is still 136 years away from gender equality is because most programs developed to address the problem either focused on changing women, rather than their environments, or didn't extend to customized solutions for a particular organization or location. What that looks like: Workplaces that reward presenteeism rather than results, punishing women "in family-formation stage," Gillard said. Male-dominated management selecting men to join high-performing teams. Pervasive stereotypes that define men who are pushy as "looking for the next opportunity," while when it comes to women with the same characteristics, "people will say she's too ruthless, she's too hard boiled, she's too difficult to deal with." When avoiding bro culture is a rational choice: "Women are increasingly saying to themselves 'this isn't a fair journey' and ask 'why should I put myself through years of bro culture to try and get to the top?' — and are making other choices." It's the evidence, stupid: "You can't fix things unless you can name them, see them, analyze them, categorize them, and then ultimately develop evidence-based strategies that will change them." What won't work is "sending some senior women to empowerment conferences, or thinking this is a confidence problem, Gillard said. "You'll never get to equality if that's the strategy you're using. And they are very common strategies." Corporate case study: Gillard described a litigation-based law firm which realized it was not promoting many women to partner, and pinpointed the problem to a lack of women on its highest-profile cases. It turned out that was because the mostly male partners at the firm were in charge of choosing the teams for blockbuster cases. In interviews, those partners admitted they mostly chose people who reminded them of their younger selves — mostly, younger men. The solution the firm chose: hiring an outsider who was not a partner to select the teams, to ensure diversity on every case. Leader who most surprised Gillard: German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who surprised the Aussie prime minister with her warm welcome at forums like the G-20. Most disliked trait: "Not listening," Gillard said, to a smattering of mirthful laughter from the women in the audience. "I still go into forums that are predominantly male [and] the inability to listen and respond as opposed to just say what they wanted to anyway — that sometimes frustrates me." AWKWARD: As Gillard — wearing an "Equality Now" necklace — left the stage, she was replaced by an all-male three-person panel (moderated by another man) on the topic "Leading in a World Transformed: Impact and Progress." CORRIDOR CHATTER SINGAPOREANS DON'T LIKE SANCTIONS: Most Singaporeans dislike Putin's war on Ukraine, but since Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong announced sanctions on Russia earlier this year, many of his citizens have been skeptical of the move. According to several diplomats briefed on the government's thinking, officials have been surprised by the low level of support among the public. For Singaporeans, joining the sanctions was akin to picking sides between the U.S. and Russia: and as with U.S.-China disputes, Singaporeans hate to choose. Lee felt the need to tackle the issue in his annual speech to the nation on Aug. 21, saying: "We cannot be ambiguous about where we stand." The domestic political risk for Lee is more young people calling for change. "The current government isn't doing a bad job at all, but the young voters just want a taste of something new," one Western diplomat told Global Insider on the sidelines of the Milken conference. OVERHEARD: "We could invite Pelosi" to an event in Taiwan, said one laughing business exec to another, over frosty glasses of Coke in the 3rd floor lounge at the Four Seasons. The response: "Yes, since she likes going there so much!"
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