| | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg, Lawrence Ukenye and Ari Hawkins | |  President Joe Biden reacts as South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol sings the song American Pie by Don Mclean in the White House on April 26, 2023. | Susan Walsh/AP Photo | With help from Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Matt We know D.C. is swooning over South Korean President YOON SUK YEOL’s rendition of “American Pie” — including President JOE BIDEN. But that’s paired with lots of confusion over Yoon’s comments that afternoon that the U.S. had promised to use nukes to help defend South Korea from a North Korea-launched nuclear attack. For years U.S. leaders have said Pyongyang’s use of nuclear bombs would bring about the end of the regime, but nothing explicit had been declared about how. (Granted, the whole point of extended deterrence is that South Korea falls under America’s nuclear umbrella.) Immediately, U.S.-based nuclear experts pointed out that it’s only Biden, not Yoon, with the launch codes and that what the South Korean said wasn’t reflective of America’s long-time stance. “Yoon fundamentally misstated U.S. policy,” said the Federation of American Scientists’ ADAM MOUNT. Plus, the just-released Washington Declaration notes “the U.S. commitment to extend deterrence to [South Korea] is backed by the full range of U.S. capabilities, including nuclear.” In other words, the U.S. ambiguously could use nukes in such a scenario, but it won’t necessarily do so. So, it’s more than possible Yoon flubbed his statement and/or what he said wasn’t perfectly translated into English in real time. Except… NK News’ JEONGMIN KIM directly translated the Korean version of the transcript, which makes Yoon’s statement sound even more aggressive. Using an acronym for South Korea’s official name, the president said that after a North Korean nuclear attack, “we agreed to swiftly respond with all overwhelming responses, including powerful nuclear forces of ROK-U.S.” It also looks like South Korean officials leaked to local press that they hoped the U.S. would, in fact, launch nukes. “The South Korean government has reportedly conveyed its position that they hope the U.S. would respond with nuclear weapons if North Korea were to use them before the upcoming South Korea-U.S. summit,” the Dong-A Ilbo reported earlier this week. Add all this to Yoon’s trial balloons of South Korea developing its own nuclear bombs — which this new consultation policy was designed to dissuade — and it’s not far-fetched to think he wished the U.S. would change its policy. Was this confusion caused innocently by Yoon, or is there some not-so-subtle messaging going on? Some say that making the subtext a little more text isn’t a bad thing: “It's helpful to add a little bit of clarity to declaratory policy,” said the Atlantic Council’s MARKUS GARLAUSKAS.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Innovating at hypersonic speed.
Lockheed Martin is innovating with urgency to solve today’s hypersonic strike and defense challenges. We’re investing in the American hypersonic workforce and supplier base, to ensure our customers stay ready for what’s ahead. Learn more. | | | | | TROOP TROUBLES: Russia needs more troops to fight in Ukraine, but officials have to balance a pair of concerns: angering the general public and exacerbating the civilian workforce’s labor shortage, the Washington Post’s MARY ILYUSHINA reports. Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN “reportedly backed” his military’s proposed recruitment of some 400,000 soldiers two months ago, per leaked Pentagon documents. But to protect him from public backlash, current plans involve having regional governors direct the recruitment campaigns and taking men from Russia’s prisons. Another set of documents shows that Moscow will be able to fund its war in Ukraine for at least another year despite being heavily sanctioned, the Post’s ADAM TAYLOR reported Wednesday. JACK TEIXEIRA, the 21-year-old Air National guardsman accused of leaking the intel appeared in federal court on Thursday. To round out a new set of revelations, other documents show that construction at a suspected Chinese military base in the U.A.E. has resumed, although the Gulf nation claimed the project was halted last year due to American concerns, the Post’s JOHN HUDSON, ELLEN NAKASHIMA and LIZ SLY reported Wednesday. UKRAINE’S OBSTACLE: As Kyiv prepares to launch its expected counteroffensive, satellite images show that Russian forces have built a vast network of fortifications to prepare, Reuters’ TOM BALMFORTH reports. The defenses, focused around eastern Ukraine and Crimea, have experts concerned that Ukraine could have difficulty making progress in its attack. Success would likely hinge on troops’ abilities to perform complex combined operations effectively, maneuvers that Western nations have been helping them learn. As Ukraine gets ready to strike, it’ll have nearly all the combat vehicles that Western allies have promised to deliver, NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG told reporters, per the Associated Press’ DAVID RISING and LORNE COOK. “This will put Ukraine in a strong position to continue to retake occupied territory,” he said, outlining other military aid provided including more than 1,550 armored vehicles, 230 tanks and large amounts of ammunition. FENTANYL FROM CHINA TO MEXICO: New indictments show the clear pathway of chemicals from China making their way into fentanyl produced in Mexico that, at some point, are used by Americans. “In exchange for payments in cryptocurrency, Wuhan Shuokang Biological Technology dispensed technical assistance and advice to Mexico’s notorious Sinaloa cartel, including which chemicals could be combined most effectively to make the synthetic opioid, and how to economize on ‘starting material,’” per a U.S. indictment unsealed on April 14 and reported on by the Washington Post’s DAVID OVALLE and NICK MIROFF. “U.S. prosecutors say the Chinese company used its professional-looking website to maintain a veneer of legitimacy, but its brokers supplied chemicals and illicit substances to the cartel.” “Investigators describe the indictment as among the most significant attempts to link Chinese chemical companies to the Sinaloa gangsters who dominate the fentanyl trade,” reads the story. Some Republicans, including presidential candidates, now advocate for using military force in Mexico to root out the cartels and curb the influx of fentanyl into America. MOSCOW DENIES VISIT WITH JAILED WSJ REPORTER: Russia’s foreign ministry said it has rejected a plea from U.S. officials in Moscow to visit detained Wall Street Journal reporter EVAN GERSHKOVICH next month in retaliation for the denial of U.S. visas to Russian journalists, write Gershkovich’s colleagues ANN SIMMONS AND VIVIAN SALAMA. “Such sabotage, aimed at preventing normal journalistic work, will not remain unanswered,” the ministry said in a statement on Thursday, referring to journalists the Kremlin claims were denied a visa to cover Foreign Minister SERGEY LAVROV’s trip to New York. “The U.S. Embassy was informed in this connection that its request for consular access to U.S. citizen Gershkovich, detained on suspicion of espionage, on May 11 was declined.” SLAPPED WITH SANCTIONS: The White House announced new sanctions against Russia’s Federal Security Service and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps intelligence organization on Thursday for facilitating the wrongful detention of U.S. nationals abroad, according to a senior official from the Biden administration, who briefed reporters ahead of the public announcement on the condition of anonymity. The sanctions are the first imposed under Executive Order 14078, which the president signed last summer, and allows the administration to impose restrictions like visa bans and sanctions on entities involved in the wrongful detainment of Americans abroad. SULLIVAN SAYS: National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN reaffirmed that the Biden administration is not looking to decouple from China’s economy in a broad overview of their international economics agenda. "We're not cutting off trade," Sullivan said in a speech at the Brookings Institution on Thursday, underscoring the risk of Beijing using American technology to undermine the U.S. He also touched on Washington’s plans to reform the World Bank to better compete with China. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and mberg@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @Lawrence_Ukenye, @reporterjoe and @_AriHawkins.
| | | | The McCain Institute will convene its 10th annual Sedona Forum on May 5-6, featuring lawmakers, journalists, military leaders, business executives, and more. This year’s theme, “Indispensable Power,” will examine the diplomatic, military, and economic means employed to protect democracy, human rights, and the global competitive edge. Established by Senator John McCain, the Sedona Forum is held each spring in the red rock country of Sedona, Arizona, to advance the mission of the McCain Institute – fighting for democracy, human dignity, and security. Visit TheSedonaForum.org to register for the livestream today. | | | | | | | | DESANTIS IN ISRAEL: While you were sleeping, Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS gave a speech about U.S.-Israeli relations as he prepares for an expected presidential bid, our own GARY FINEOUT reports. In his remarks, DeSantis called Israel “one of the most valued and trusted” allies of the United States, adding that “we must reject those who reject Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state. That is anti-Semitism.” During comments to reporters, he also took swings at Biden over the U.S.'s relationship with Saudi Arabia. America “should not butt into” Israeli domestic affairs, he also said — another jab at Biden after the president expressed concern over Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s proposed overhaul of the judicial system that triggered widespread protests. DeSantis is scheduled to meet with Netanyahu during his stop in Israel before he heads to the United Kingdom.
| | MUSK AT THE CAPITOL: Tesla and Twitter CEO ELON MUSK said he met with CHUCK SCHUMER (D-N.Y.) and other lawmakers to discuss policy around artificial intelligence after being spotted on Capitol Hill on Wednesday. “That which affects safety of the public has, over time, become regulated to ensure that companies do not cut corners. AI has great power to do good and evil. Better the former,” he tweeted. Musk’s visit with Schumer comes after the Senate majority leader launched and began circulating a “high level framework” to craft legislation regulating AI. The goal is to develop policies that can “adapt as the technology continues to advance, allowing for innovation and continued U.S. leadership in the development of this critical technology,” according to a note from Senate Democrats earlier this month.
| | | | HAPPENING NEXT WEEK! GO INSIDE THE 2023 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: POLITICO is proud to partner with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Global Insider" newsletter featuring exclusive coverage, insider nuggets and unparalleled insights from the 2023 Global Conference, which will convene leaders in health, finance, politics, philanthropy and entertainment from May 1-4. This year’s theme, Advancing a Thriving World, will challenge and inspire attendees to lean into building an optimistic coalition capable of tackling the issues and inequities we collectively face. Don’t miss a thing — subscribe today for a front row seat. | | | | | | | | SEND THE TANKS: Senators on both sides of the aisle are frustrated with the Pentagon’s monthslong timeline for sending U.S. tanks to Ukraine, saying Kyiv needs the capability now, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reports. Members of the Senate Armed Services Committee gave an earful to top military commanders at a hearing Thursday on the need to speed up delivery of Abrams tanks as Ukraine prepares for a counteroffensive to retake territory from Russia. “If our tanks don’t get there until August or September, it may well be too late,” said Sen. ANGUS KING (I-Maine). “Our country has thousands of main battle tanks,” Republican Sen. TOM COTTON of Arkansas said earlier in the hearing. “It would seem like it’s not that hard to find 31 and get them there.”
| | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — COUNTERING IRAN: A new bipartisan bill would encourage the development of a strategy with Abraham Accord nations to counter Iran at sea, NatSec Daily has learned. The Maritime Architecture and Response to International Terrorism in the Middle East Act, or MARITIME, is led by the co-chairs of the Senate Abraham Accords Caucus: Sens. JACKY ROSEN (D-Nev.), JONI ERNST (R-Iowa), JAMES LANKFORD (R-Okla.) and CORY BOOKER (D-N.J.). The bill, expected to be formally introduced on Thursday, says the defense secretary and secretary of State should “develop a Middle East integrated maritime domain awareness and interdiction capability” for threats like “manned and unmanned naval systems, undersea warfare capabilities, and anti-ship missiles of Iran and groups affiliated with Iran.” That strategy would be due 60 days after the enactment of the bill. A companion bill was introduced in the House, indicating that there’s bipartisan and bicameral support for the passage of the measure. It seems destined for integration in the annual defense policy bill, but we’ll have to wait and see if that’s the case. As if to make the lawmakers’ point, U.S. Navy Central Command said that Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps seized an oil tanker transiting the Gulf of Oman and headed to the United States. The U.S. 5th Fleet is monitoring the situation. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — GIVE US THE DOCS: The leaders of the House Intelligence Committee, Reps. MIKE TURNER (R-Ohio) and JIM HIMES (D-Conn.), have sent a letter this week to the CIA general counsel’s office asking for the agency to help with document production in their congressional investigation into whether the CIA is mishandling sexual assaults among employees, a person familiar with the letter told DANIEL LIPPMAN. The letter is asking for employee sexual assault complaints and internal communications about certain cases. Daniel first reported last week that the committee has heard from a number of female employees complaining about their cases not being handled properly and started an inquiry. CIA spokesperson TAMMY KUPPERMAN THORP said in a statement: “The director and senior CIA leaders take the matter extremely seriously and are fully committed to supporting the House Intelligence Committee’s investigation. There is no tolerance for sexual assault or harassment at CIA.” A spokesperson for the committee didn't respond to a request for comment.
| | | |   | | | | | NOMINEE STALEMATE: Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE's (R-Ala.) choice to slow walk Biden's Pentagon nominees over the DoD's controversial abortion policy is rankling fellow Republicans who are growing concerned about the national security implications. The Hill's ALEXANDER BOLTON reports that some Republicans felt that MITCH McCONNELL would step in, but with the minority leader unlikely to do so, some fear that Tuberville is needlessly using politics to slow the promotions of nonpolitical military officials. “I would prefer that Sen. Tuberville focus his holds on political appointees," said Sen. SUSAN COLLINS (R-Maine). "They’re the ones who make the policy." Last October, the Pentagon announced a new plan to pay for service members to travel to obtain abortions in other states if the procedure is restricted in the state they're stationed in.
| | — The U.S. Global Leadership Coalition has announced the creation of the Conservative Foreign Policy Study Group, which consists of a group of conservative foreign policy and national security experts who served in the Trump administration. The organization has also added former Defense Secretary MARK ESPER to their national advisory council. — COLBY HARRIMAN is leaving Foreign Policy for America after serving as a diplomacy policy associate. Harriman’s next role will be leading Rep. DINA TITUS’ (D-Nev.) work on the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
| | — BOB DAVIS, POLITICO: Inside the Cabinet turf war to be Biden’s China fixer — ROBERT BOROSAGE, The Nation: The left should support ending violence in Ukraine — ANTHONY KING, War on the Rocks: AI at war
| | — The House Financial Services Housing and Insurance Subcommittee, 9 a.m.: The Reauthorization of the National Flood Insurance Program: FEMA's Perspective — The George Washington University Space Policy Institute, 10 a.m.: The Strategic Defense Initiative in Retrospect: The Past, Present, and Future of Missile Defense — The House Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.: Department of the Navy FY2024 Budget Request with Navy Secretary CARLOS DEL TORO and Chief of Naval Operations Adm. MICHAEL GILDAY — The House Veterans' Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: Holds a markup on pending legislation — The Hudson Institute, 2 p.m.: Restoring Military Readiness with Rep. MIKE GARCIA (R-Calif.) Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who explicitly — never implicitly — says how much she hates working with us. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who we declare, without ambiguity, is the best producer to ever produce.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Innovating at hypersonic speed.
Lockheed Martin is innovating with urgency to solve today’s hypersonic strike and defense challenges. We’re investing in the American hypersonic workforce and supplier base, to ensure our customers stay ready for what’s ahead. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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