All eyes on Virginia’s elections

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Oct 03, 2023 View in browser   By Arianna Skibell Presented by Chevron Virginia state lawmakers meet inside the House of Delegates chamber. Every seat in Virginia's Statehouse is on the ballot this year. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images The White House is turning its attention to Virginia, where Republicans have a shot at taking full control of the state legislature for the first time in a decade. A GOP sweep this November would set the stage for a broader rollback of Virginia’s climate policies that started when Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin took office nearly two years ago, writes Scott Waldman. It could also be a bellwether of other state elections — most of which take place in 2024 — offering both parties a chance to test their campaign strategies and messages. President Joe Biden recently announced that the Democratic National Committee would invest an additional $1.2 million into Virginia’s race, bringing the total to $1.5 million — which is 15 times what the DNC spent on the state in 2019. The Republican National Committee has yet to match Democrats’ investment (likely because Youngkin’s PAC drew in $6 million in the second quarter alone), but both parties are expected to attract millions more over the next month. “The stakes have never been higher,” Biden said at a campaign reception in McLean, Va., just outside Washington. “The one place we made a mistake the last 20 years, in my view, is putting much more emphasis on the federal legislature than on the state legislature.” Climate policies on the line Youngkin has spent his first two years in office rolling back as many state climate policies as he can without full control of the legislature. He withdrew from a state coalition called the U.S. Climate Alliance, blocked a proposed Ford electric vehicle battery manufacturing facility — and now wants to pull out of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative. Former Virginia Attorney General Mark Herring had determined that the governor can’t exit the cap-and-trade program without legislative approval, and environmental groups are suing to block the withdrawal. A GOP landslide would all but ensure Virginia’s exit. GOP odds  Youngkin is one of the most popular governors in the country. But several factors could work against a GOP takeover, University of Virginia elections expert J. Miles Coleman told Scott. With a Republican-controlled legislature, Youngkin would have a chance to fulfill his promise of enacting a 15-week abortion ban, which voters largely oppose. Continued Republican infighting on Capitol Hill also threatens a government shutdown next month — an important issue for a state where many federal workers reside. And Democrats could succeed in activating young voters, who are more likely to be concerned about climate change than their peers. But this year’s election is shaping up to be even more unpredictable than usual — every seat in the 140-member state General Assembly will be on the ballot for the first time in four years. Republicans control the House of Delegates, while Democrats hold a tenuous 22-18 majority in the Senate.   It's Tuesday — thank you for tuning in to POLITICO's Power Switch. I'm your host, Arianna Skibell. Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to askibell@eenews.net.   A message from Chevron: Chevron knows methane management is critical for a lower carbon future. We’re striving to lead in methane management with innovative practices, partnerships, and new technologies. These are a few ways we’re aiming to keep methane in the pipe.   Listen to today’s POLITICO Energy podcast Today in POLITICO Energy’s podcast: Ry Rivard breaks down why Democratic governors are urging Biden to offer more subsidies for vulnerable offshore wind projects across the Northeast.   A message from Chevron:   Power Centers Laphonza Butler attends Emily's List's 2023 Pre-Oscars Breakfast at the Beverly Hilton on March 7 in Beverly Hills, Calif. | Araya Doheny/Getty Images New California senator a mystery to greens Laphonza Butler — Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom's pick to replace the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein — is a largely mystery to the nation's green advocacy groups, writes Timothy Cama. “Laphonza who?!?” said R.L. Miller, president of Climate Hawks Vote. Butler is known mainly in the abortion rights and labor worlds. Still, environmental groups are welcoming her into the fold. Can this purple state go green? Two years ago, Arizona had a bipartisan agreement on sweeping rules that would have set a 100 percent clean energy standard by 2050. Advocates said it could have fueled a solar boom, writes Jason Plautz. Politics, however, tanked the plan before a final vote. Despite an election last November that put more Democrats into statewide offices, Arizona now seems further away than ever on a top-down plan to move the state away from fossil fuels. Ukraine points war finger at China Ukraine has added three Chinese energy giants to its list of businesses that are helping bankroll Russia's war, in a move Kyiv says will have consequences for the companies' work in the West, writes Gabriel Gavin. Russia has looked to China to replace oil and gas customers it lost in Europe as a result of its invasion of Ukraine last year. China has refused to condemn Russia's war in Ukraine, but it has repeatedly expressed frustration over the conflict's economic consequences and even backed a U.N. resolution that criticized Moscow's "aggression." In Other News One person's trash: Mandatory composting is coming to New York City. Environmental justice: In the ambitious bid to reinvent South Baltimore, equity concerns remain.   GROWING IN THE GOLDEN STATE: POLITICO California is growing, reinforcing our role as the indispensable insider source for reporting on politics, policy and power. From the corridors of power in Sacramento and Los Angeles to the players and innovation hubs in Silicon Valley, we're your go-to for navigating the political landscape across the state. Exclusive scoops, essential daily newsletters, unmatched policy reporting and insights — POLITICO California is your key to unlocking Golden State politics. LEARN MORE.     Subscriber Zone A showcase of some of our best subscriber content. Eric Hsieh is deputy assistant secretary for energy storage in the Department of Energy's Office of Electricity. | Francis Chung/POLITICO (DOE); DOE (Hsieh) Q&A: Eric Hsieh speaks about what it's like to be at the center of the Biden administration's push for better energy storage that can lessen U.S. climate pollution. Documents reveal that Biden elevated Willie Phillips to chair of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission earlier this year, despite telling the public at the time that Phillips would be acting chair. The World Bank and International Monetary Fund are urging countries to swiftly adopt carbon pricing policies to avoid racking up trillions of dollars in debt. That's it for today, folks! Thanks for reading.   Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here.       A message from Chevron: By 2028, our upstream methane intensity target is set to be 53% below the 2016 baseline. To help us get there, we’ve trialed over 13 advanced methane technologies including satellites, planes, drones, and fixed sensors to help reduce methane emissions intensity. In the Permian, we have deployed real-time autonomous optimizers that continuously monitor facilities and well conditions to help prevent flaring, venting and well shutdowns. Developing new solutions to provide energy that’s affordable, reliable and ever-cleaner, that’s energy in progress.     Follow us on Twitter Arianna Skibell @ariannaskibell   Follow us

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