Democrats have lost their edge

Your afternoon must-read briefing on politics and government in the Golden State

Oct 16, 2023 View in browser   By Dustin Gardiner and Blake Jones SWING TO THE RIGHT: Strategists in both parties say the majority in the U.S House of Representatives runs through California. If that’s true, Democrats have a lot of financial catching up to do to make sure their candidates aren’t outpaced. Republicans now hold the fundraising edge in most of California’s swing districts that could determine which party holds power after the 2024 election cycle. GOP candidates had more cash on hand than Democrats in seven of the state’s 10 most-watched battlegrounds at the end of the third quarter on Sept. 30, according to the latest Federal Election Commission filings. The fundraising advantage is, in part, reflective of the fact that most of those swing districts are held by Republican incumbents in Southern California or the Central Valley, including Reps. Michelle Steel, CA-45; Ken Calvert, CA-41; Young Kim, CA-40; David Valadao, CA-22; John Duarte, CA-13; and Kevin Kiley, CA-03. All of those GOP House members had at least $1 million more in cash than their Democratic challengers — a testament to the fundraising advantages that come with incumbency, including connections to big donors and better name ID. But the fundraising edge for Republicans could wane in the coming months following Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s ouster as House speaker. He has long been a prolific fundraiser for California GOP members and gave six-figure contributions to many of the incumbents listed above. Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) speaks with reporters during a press conference at the U.S. Capitol on Monday. | Francis Chung/POLITICO To that end, many of the GOP candidates — including Steel, Kim and Duarte — recently told POLITICO that they’re hopeful McCarthy will remain a fundraising juggernaut. Democratic strategists, however, see a wide opening with the GOP’s internal speakership turmoil. They’re confident that McCarthy’s loss of stature will help narrow the gap in swing districts, especially after the March 5 primary narrows the Democratic field in several crowded primaries. There are several other bright spots for Democrats, though the party has raised far less money in swing districts overall. Two Democratic incumbents reported sizable cash-on-hand advantages: Rep. Josh Harder (CA-09) had nearly $2.3 million on hand, compared with $186,000 for Republican opponent Kevin Lincoln. Rep. Mike Levin (CA-49) had nearly $1.1 million on hand, a few hundred thousand more than his two GOP primary opponents. Perhaps the biggest surprise: Democrat George Whitesides has more cash on hand than incumbent GOP Rep. Mike Garcia in CA-27. Whitesides, who's heavily self-funded, had about $1.7 million relative to Garcia’s $1.5 million. IT’S MONDAY AFTERNOON. This is California Playbook PM, a POLITICO newsletter that serves as an afternoon temperature check of California politics and a look at what our policy reporters are watching. Got tips or suggestions? Shoot an email to bjones@politico.com or send a shout on Twitter. DMs are open. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY RED MEAT REFERENDUM: Two Southern California school board members will face a recall election after firing the district superintendent and passing a contentious transgender student policy. Organizers of a campaign to oust Orange Unified Trustees Madison Miner and Rick Ledesma announced today that they had submitted enough valid signatures to qualify the recall, teeing up a referendum on a new conservative board majority in the suburb south of Los Angeles. Ledesma won reelection and Miner narrowly secured a first term last year, and each voted in favor of sacking the district’s leader in January and of requiring that school staff alert parents when a student shows signs that they’re transgender or nonbinary. A date for the recall vote hasn’t yet been set. On The Beats WALKING IT BACK: San Francisco District Attorney Brooke Jenkins has retracted a series of tweets about pro-Palestinian demonstrations that inflamed Muslim Americans. Jenkins conflated protesters with terrorists in a Sunday tweet denouncing a “pro-Hamas rally.” It was an apparent reference to people who took to the streets of San Francisco on Saturday in opposition to Israel’s military response to the killing and kidnapping of hundreds of Israeli civilians by the Palestinian militant group Hamas. Jenkins said graffiti reading “Death 2 Israel” was “assumed to have been associated with the protest.” A backlash ensued. Advocacy groups said Jenkins was fomenting unrest, pointing to the killing of a Palestinian-American child in Illinois. By this morning the tweets were deleted and Jenkins was issuing an apology, saying she had heard from alarmed Muslim and Arab residents. “I denounce any and all hateful speech and actions, including both the antisemitic graffiti here in San Francisco and the horrific killing of an innocent six-year old Palestinian-American boy in Illinois, and attempted murder of his mother,” Jenkins said in a statement. — Jeremy B. White LOST LEARNING: State schools Superintendent Tony Thurmond said he’ll request upward of $500 million in next year’s budget to train school staff as learning gaps between disadvantaged students and their peers persist across California. Last year, the first statewide test scores released since the pandemic showed that California students had suffered severe setbacks — particularly in math. The professional development money Thurmond is seeking, he and top deputies told reporters Monday, is intended to reverse pandemic learning losses in math and reading. Teachers would be eligible for training, as well as administrators and support staff, including classroom aides. The superintendent also said the California Department of Education will increase reporting requirements for recipients of community schools grants, a $4 billion fund that pays for counselors, after-school care and other support services at high-poverty schools. WHAT WE'RE READING TODAY MIXED MESSAGES: Mexico’s Sinaloa cartel, which has been the leading exporter of fentanyl to the U.S., now says it’s prohibiting — on penalty of death — the manufacture and trafficking of fentanyl in its territory as it faces pressure from authorities. (The Wall Street Journal) SPACE TO GROW: UC Berkeley says it plans to build a $2 billion space research center on 36 acres at Moffett Field in Mountain View that will rival the Kennedy Space Center in Florida and the Johnson Space Center in Texas. (San Francisco Chronicle) BAD BEESNESS: A mystery surrounds the San Diego Bee Sanctuary, where a mass die-off last month across 80 percent of the hives is a scary reminder of the perilous state of critically important bees due to natural and manmade causes. (The San Diego Union-Tribune)   Follow us on Twitter POLITICO California @politicoca   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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