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By STUART LAU
with PHELIM KINE
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WELCOME TO CHINA WATCHER.
This is Stuart Lau in Brussels, with the EU-China dossier for you this Tuesday — also keeping an eye on how Beijing reacts to the unfolding Middle East flashpoints. I’ll also bring you a brief update on the four Central European countries known as the Visegrád group, as well as the latest on the Taiwanese presidential election which is only three months away. Phelim Kine will be with you from D.C. on Thursday.
BORRELL IN BEIJING
THIRD TIME LUCKY? It’s no secret EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has been keen to visit China ever since he took the job in 2019. So far, he’s not been able to do so. The pandemic hit, followed by his own COVID-19 diagnosis earlier this year, and then the disappearance of China’s former Foreign Minister Qin Gang.
He’s now all set to be there Thursday through Saturday, arriving in Shanghai before heading to Beijing to co-chair an EU-China strategic dialogue with Qin’s successor(-cum-predecessor) Wang Yi. What could go wrong?
TALKING SECURITY WITHOUT A DEFENSE COUNTERPART: Borrell would be keen to raise the issue of Taiwan, now that the presidential election is only three months away (more on that below) and the security situation is volatile. However, apart from a strategic dialogue with Wang, Borrell wouldn’t be able to meet anyone from the defense establishment in Beijing. “There’s no ministerial counterpart in defense” available there, said one senior EU official, referring to the prolonged disappearance of Defense Minister Li Shangfu.
Still, the EU expects a pushback: According to the EU official, they’re expecting Beijing to challenge Borrell when the issue of Taiwan is raised, along the lines of “what does it have to do with you?”
Line to take: “Our answer is simple, that stability and peace of the Taiwan Strait is a global good,” he said. “This is not just a matter for the mainland China and Taiwan. Taiwan is our 12th largest trading partner in the world. Clearly we have stakes.”
ON UKRAINE’S TWO BIGGEST ENEMIES: Borrell is also expected to put pressure on Beijing to address the close military cooperation between Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un, the Russian and North Korean dictators. “We are going to confront China with the perception in the EU that despite China’s influence over Russia, it’s not using it in a way that we want it to,” the official said.
THE MIDDLE EAST COMES BACK: Just as Borrell is (again) packing his bags, the Middle East is descending into bloodshed and uncertainties. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned of a “long and difficult war” with Gaza’s Hamas militants, who launched a surprise attack in Israel proper over the weekend.
Chinese nuance: While Europe and the U.S. condemned Hamas’ act, calling it terrorism, China has shied away from any such expressions. Beijing also hasn’t unequivocally affirm Israel’s right to self-defense, and instead calls on all sides to de-escalate — and to help deliver the two-state solution. Israel was dissatisfied, and hoped to see a “stronger condemnation” of Hamas from China, which it sees as its friend, according to Yuval Waks, a senior official at Israel’s embassy to China. Reuters has the report.
CHINA’S SAME OLD WISH: It wants Europe to be more autonomous away from the U.S. Chinese state media Global Times has this groundbreaking take.
ALSO IN CHINA… Borrell’s colleague, EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson is also visiting China this week. She will co-chair the EU-China energy dialogue, already in its 11th edition, with China’s National Energy Administration Director Zhang Jianhua in Beijing.
Windy atmosphere: A day before she departed for Beijing, Simson refused to rule out yet another new investigation into China's use of subsidies, this time for wind turbine manufacturers.
"Never say never," Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson said at a POLITICO event Monday, when asked whether the EU executive could open a new probe. “We have to avoid any kind of trade war because we as a single market actually do benefit from open markets and fair competition … [but] if there is proof that we are facing dumping measures … of course we have to address that." Victor Jack writes in to report.
This comes just a week after the EU began a probe into electric vehicles, which put Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis in a slightly awkward position when he visited Beijing and got an explicit warning.
CENTRAL EUROPE IN FOCUS
HUNGARY’S ORBÁN TO MEET XI (AND PUTIN): Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is set to be the sole EU leader to attend China’s Belt and Road Forum in Beijing later this month, three diplomats have told your correspondent.
That's a big contrast from the last such event in 2019, when the likes of then-Italian PM Paolo Gentiloni (now the EU's finance commissioner) gladly joined China's pow-wow.
Except Orbán won't be too cheerful this time round: The Chinese funding for the Budapest-Belgrade railway has all but stopped, with the Chinese contractors unable to deliver EU-standard railway systems, according to Hungarian media. That's a blow to the Hungarian leader, who's insisted on a preference for Beijing and Moscow while discrediting the EU — he just accused the bloc of "legally raping" Budapest on migration — due to Brussels' dissatisfaction with Hungary's over rule-of-law issues.
Chines reassurance: For now, Beijing says all is fine. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi last week told his Hungarian counterpart that the railway project would go on as planned. The fact that this particular issue came up in a ministerial call highlighted Budapest's growing discontent with Beijing's position.
Who else might Orbán meet? Russian President Vladimir Putin, who's also accepted the invitation.
SLOVAKIA POSSIBLY HAS A PRO-KREMLIN PM SOON: In Bratislava, a recent election saw the return to power of Robert Fico, an anti-Ukraine politician who has vowed to cut off all military support to Kyiv. Back in 2016 when Fico was in power, he lashed out at President Andrej Kiska after he met with exiled Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, accusing the head of state of endangering Slovak economic relations with China, according to MapInfluence, a think tank focusing on China’s reach in Central and Eastern Europe.
FAR-RIGHT IN POLAND ELECTION EQUIVOCAL ABOUT CHINA: Poland will hold parliamentary elections on Sunday, and while all the major parties are broadly in support of a strong transatlantic alliance against Russia, the far-right Confederation has a “somewhat undefined” position towards Russia — and by extension China, according to Joanna Nawrotkiewicz, of the Prague-based Association for International Affairs. “Unlike other parties, the Confederation seems inclined to maintain business as usual. Therefore, their stance on the potential future course of economic cooperation [with China] is quite clear,” she noted in a recent report.
CZECH GOVERNMENT DIVIDED ON 14+1: Over in Prague, while both the president and the foreign minister are in support of leaving Beijing's "14+1" platform with mostly the ex-Soviet part of Europe, Prime Minister Petr Fiala is understood to be taking a more cautious line, fearing that a unilateral dropout would attract Chinese retaliation.
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COUNTDOWN TO TAIWAN RACE
THREE MONTHS TO GO: Forget the polls across European Union countries in June or Donald Trump‘s potential comeback later next year. In Asia, the most important election of 2024 will take place in Taiwan on January 13. This will serve as an important indicator for Beijing on whether and how to reassess its cross-Straits strategy.
FOR NOW, CONTINUITY IS THE LIKELIEST SCENARIO: The current president, Tsai Ing-wen, is due to step down after an eight-year term. Her deputy, Lai Ching-te, who’s also from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), is projected to win. The Kuomintang (KMT), which moved the Republic of China government to Taiwan after being defeated by the Communists in 1949, is struggling to win support especially from the younger generation which share few bonds with the other side of the Taiwan Strait.
HOW BEIJING SEES IT: The DPP has long been treated with hostility by Beijing, which sees it as a group of independence-minded politicians. Beijing is especially wary of Lai, who more than once called himself a “pragmatic worker for Taiwan independence.” A senior EU diplomat, granted permission to speak anonymously, said Beijing was using this assertion to hype up the political tension, as "Lai and the rest of the current government made no public — or private — moves towards independence.”
MILITARY TENSION IS ON THE RISE: Taiwan has been reporting a record number of Chinese fighter jets that had been crossing the median line of the Taiwan Straits, with 103 flights on a single day in mid-September. According to Chinese state media Xinhua, citing mainland military experts, that particular incident showed the Chinese military’s ability to deploy its newest jets and work in a coordinated manner across forces.
And battle of the hearts: Beijing is stepping up its “cognitive warfare tactics” against Taiwan, with hackers entering a target’s social media account, publishing messages and deleting records to hide their origin, Taiwan’s Ministry of Justice said this week. Taipei Times has more.
DIVIDED PRO-BEIJING CAMP: Amid China’s pressure, Taiwan’s pro-China camp is resorting to a pro-peace message — but infighting is fierce in the upcoming election, with KMT’s Hou Yu-ih, former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je and iPhone-building tycoon Terry Gou all vying for the top job.
TRANSLATING WASHINGTON
SCHUMER GIVES XI EARFUL ON ISRAEL: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) took Xi Jinping to task on Monday for the Chinese foreign ministry's failure to condemn Hamas's attack on Israel. "I was very disappointed to be honest by the Foreign Ministry statement that showed no sympathy or support for Israel during these troubled times," Schumer told Xi in a meeting in Beijing on Monday, per the Associated Press. The Foreign Ministry didn't mention Hamas attacks on Israeli civilians and instead urged "relevant parties to remain calm." The ministry scrambled on Monday to tweak its messaging. "We're deeply saddened by the civilian casualties and oppose and condemn acts that harm civilians," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said in a press briefing on Monday. The Hamas attack has overshadowed Schumer's congressional delegation which landed in Shanghai on Saturday to raise concerns about China's role in the U.S. opioid overdose epidemic and the need for "reciprocity" in bilateral commercial relations.
BIDEN TEASES XI MEETING IN NOVEMBER: President Joe Biden flagged his interest in meeting with Xi on the sidelines of the APEC meeting in San Francisco next month. "There has been no such meeting set up, but it is a possibility," Biden told reporters on Friday. Xi teased back on Monday by telling visiting Senate Majority Leader Schumer that "face-to-face interactions are irreplaceable,” in efforts to stabilize bilateral ties. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang will likely finalize the details of such a meeting when he travels to the U.S. later this month for talks with Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
COMMERCE SANCTIONS RUSSIA-LINKED CHINESE FIRMS: The Commerce Department imposed sanctions against 42 Chinese firms linked for providing "microelectronics for precision guidance systems in the missiles and drones" Russia uses against Ukraine. Chinese firms including Electronic Technology Co. Ltd., Shanghai IP3 Information Technology Co. Ltd. and Shenzhen One World International Logistics Co., Limited "supplied Russian consignees connected to the Russian defense sector with U.S.-origin integrated circuits," said a statement from the Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security published on Friday.
JUSTICE DEPT: FORMER SOLDIER A SPY: The drumbeat of allegations of Chinese espionage targeting the U.S. continues. The Department of Justice has indicted Joseph Daniel Schmidt, who left the army in 2020 after serving as in the 109th Military Intelligence Battalion at Joint Base Lewis-McChord, for offering "national defense information" to Chinese authorities in Turkey and Hong Kong, a Justice Department statement published on Friday said. Schmidt's arrest follows Beijing's announcement of the arrest of two alleged CIA spies who reportedly penetrated a government ministry and a state-owned firm, respectively. The Chinese embassy in Washington didn't respond to a request for comment. Commenting on the announcement, Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese embassy to Washington, said: “In recent years, the U.S. government and media have frequently hyped up cases of ‘espionage’ related to China, many of which later proved to be unfounded."
RATNER: BEIJING PREPARING TO 'COMMIT AGGRESSION': Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs, Ely Ratner, warns that the Chinese government is tooling its People's Liberation Army as a force for regional aggression. "China’s leaders are increasingly turning to the PLA as an instrument of coercion in support of their revisionist aims," Ratner said at a Center for Strategic & International Studies event on Thursday. China's leadership under Xi is "setting milestones to develop capabilities to commit aggression," Ratner said. That narrative reflects U.S. efforts "to stoke division and confrontation and revive the Cold War mentality," responded Liu, of the Chinese embassy.
MORE HEADLINES
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REUTERS: Indian police accuse Chinese telcos of funding investigated news portal.
WALL STREET JOURNAL: China is becoming a no-go zone for executives.
MANY THANKS TO: Our editor Christian Oliver and producer Fiona Lally.
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