Louisiana’s next governor could be picked by relatively few voters

Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Score is your guide to the year-round campaign cycle.

Oct 10, 2023 View in browser   By Madison Fernandez TOP LINE Louisiana could elect a new governor this weekend. But voters aren’t tuned in. Over 344,000 Louisianans voted early ahead of this Saturday’s election. It’s an all-party contest that could pick the next governor outright, if someone breaks 50 percent. The most likely scenario, however, is that nobody hits a majority, which would send the top two finishers to a Nov. 18 runoff. There are a handful of Republicans running who will likely split the vote. One major Democrat, former transportation secretary Shawn Wilson, is also vying to make the runoff. Republicans have largely coalesced behind Attorney General Jeff Landry in the race for Louisiana governor. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo Early voting, which ended over the weekend, lagged behind the 2019 primary, when over 386,000 people voted. “It’s really a kind of a sleeper race, to tell you the truth,” John Couvillon, a Louisiana-based pollster and political analyst, told Score. “People aren’t really tuned into this election.” Part of that has to do with the fact that Republicans have largely coalesced behind one candidate: Attorney General Jeff Landry. Landry earned an early endorsement from the state GOP, most of Louisiana's Republican congressional delegation and former President Donald Trump, and has maintained a cash advantage over his opponents. Three other prominent Republicans — along with a handful of lesser-known candidates — are running as well, but have failed to gain the traction Landry has. It’s a dynamic that differs from years past. In 2019, businessperson Eddie Rispone and then-Rep. Ralph Abraham had a heated fight for GOP support. While Rispone narrowly edged Abraham for second place in the primary, that left Rispone unable to overcome Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards in the runoff. But now it’s been seven years since Republicans have held the governorship. And in a bid to flip the seat, the GOP sought to avoid as much intraparty fighting as they could. Still, that doesn’t mean there wasn’t any Republican squabbling. Protect Louisiana's Children, a PAC supporting Landry, has dropped millions of dollars going after Stephen Waguespack, the former head of the Louisiana Association of Business and Industry and a chief of staff to former Republican Gov. Bobby Jindal, while Waguespack and Reboot Louisiana, the super PAC backing him, have spent millions of their own firing right back. State Treasurer John Schroder has also aired attack ads aimed at both Landry and Waguespack. Despite the attacks, Landry has continued to maintain a lead in the few public polls that have been released. Waguespack was once seen as Landry’s biggest threat, but that seems to have dissipated. Couvillon said that although Waguespack has been a longtime political force in the state, he has struggled to establish himself to voters. “A lot of Democrats thought that Jeff was going to implode like what David Vitter did in 2015 [against Edwards] with a red meat rhetoric,” Couvillon said. He added that Landry ran a “much more disciplined campaign than Democrats gave him credit for,” pointing to his heavy emphasis on crime and ads that highlight his upbringing. Wilson also hasn’t gotten out of the primary without getting targeted. The Republican Governors Association has been going after him, attempting to tie him to President Joe Biden and slamming him over his work as transportation secretary. Wilson may have Democrats coalescing around him — including Edwards and the state party — but he lacks crossover appeal, Couvillon said. “In his 2016 campaign, [Edwards] quickly got to the right on issues like abortion and guns,” he said. “All Shawn Wilson is doing is doing this generic peace, love and harmony stuff.” Happy Tuesday, and welcome back to Score. Send tips to mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616. Days until the Louisiana primary: 4 Days until the 2023 election: 28 Days until the Republican National Convention: 279 Days until the Democratic National Convention: 314 Days until the 2024 election: 392   Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here.     Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories. CAMPAIGN INTEL 2024 WATCH — Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is planning to stick around in Congress through the end of his term, he said on Friday amid reports that he was considering resigning ahead of January 2025. The House still does not have a speaker, and lawmakers are concerned about the consequences of paralysis in the chamber. … Former Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.) might be inching toward a comeback. He has been “making calls in recent weeks to shore up support among members of the New York congressional delegation” and could announce his bid sometime this month, City & State New York’s Rebecca C. Lewis reports. Suozzi unsuccessfully ran for governor instead of running for reelection last year. He’d be one of many Democrats vying to flip NY-03 from Republican Rep. George Santos, who’s facing a litany of legal challenges ahead of 2024. (Update: Suozzi formally entered the race on Tuesday morning after the Pro version of this newsletter went out.) … Senate Democrats have urged Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) to step down in the wake of him being indicted on bribery charges. But few are willing to support a primary challenger, POLITICO’s Ursula Perano and Burgess Everett report. … North Carolina Republican Jay Wagner, the mayor of High Point, is running for NC-06. It is currently held by Democratic Rep. Kathy Manning but the state’s congressional map is set to be redrawn soon and is expected to benefit Republicans. STAYING IN THE GAME — Former Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R-Wash.) is planning to run for state public lands commissioner next year, per The Seattle Times’ Jim Brunner. Herrera Beutler was previously considered to be a candidate for governor, a contest that also takes place next year. REDISTRICTING REDUX — New Mexico Democrats secured a win when a lower state judge ruled that its congressional map weakened the power of GOP voters, but was not an “egregious” gerrymander, the AP’s Morgan Lee wrote. Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez flipped NM-02 from then-Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell last year. The Republican Party of New Mexico said it will appeal the case to the state’s Supreme Court. … The Wisconsin Supreme Court is taking up a lawsuit over the state’s legislative maps — and despite pressure from Republicans, the court’s newest liberal justice Janet Protasiewicz is not recusing herself. She has faced criticism from the GOP for calling the map “rigged” during her campaign for the seat earlier this year, which they said means she pre-judged the case. Read more from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Molly Beck. ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Democratic Mississippi gubernatorial candidate Brandon Presley earned the endorsement of Gwendolyn Gray, a third-party candidate who dropped her bid for governor. Her name will still appear on the ballot, which means that there is still a possibility for a runoff election if no candidate earns more than 50 percent of the vote. Presidential Big Board ANOTHER ONE — Former Rep. Will Hurd (R-Texas) has suspended his run for president and endorsed former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley. Hurd failed to gain much traction in the polls and didn’t make the debate stage twice. PRESIDENTIAL PIVOT — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dropped his Democratic presidential bid and is now running as an independent. The prospect of a third-party candidate has long worried Democrats, and Trump’s team is preparing its offense against Kennedy, Semafor’s Shelby Talcott reports. CALENDAR CLASH — Iowa Democrats will release its presidential preference numbers on March 5 — Super Tuesday — officially losing their first-in-the-nation caucus status, our Elena Schneider and Lisa Kashinsky report. Meanwhile, New Hampshire was deemed “not compliant” as it refused to move its primary date to after South Carolina’s. THE CASH DASH Q3 TABS — FIRST IN SCORE — MS-Gov — Presley’s gubernatorial campaign said it raised over $5.6 million for the quarter and had around $2 million in the bank. It raised $7.8 million this year, which is the most money any Democratic gubernatorial nominee has raised in state history, the campaign said. … PRESIDENTIAL — Haley’s campaign said it raised $11.6 million across her three political committees and had $9.1 million cash on hand that can be spent in the primary. The campaign did not provide a breakdown of what each of her committees raised. … OH-Sen — Sen. Sherrod Brown’s (D-Ohio) campaign said it raised $5.8 million and had $11.2 million in the bank. … TX-Sen — Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-Texas) campaign brought in $5.4 million, per Fox News’ Paul Steinhauser. The campaign had over $6.7 million on hand. … AZ-Sen — Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (I-Ariz.) campaign said it finished the quarter with $10.8 million on hand. (She finished Q2 with around that amount, too.) A fundraising figure wasn’t shared. … VA-Sen — Republican Hung Cao’s campaign said it raised $730,000 in his bid for Senate in Virginia. A cash on hand amount was not shared. DOWN-BALLOT DOLLARS — The States Project is pouring more than $4.5 million into next month’s state legislative races in Virginia, POLITICO’s Shia Kapos reports. Democrats have a slim margin in the state Senate, and Republicans narrowly control the state House. The group, which focuses on down-ballot races, is planning to target a handful of other legislative races over the next year, including the Arizona House and Senate, the New Hampshire legislature and the Pennsylvania Senate. POLL POSITION KY-Gov — Democratic Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear is leading Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron 49-33 with around a month to go until the state’s gubernatorial race, per an Emerson College/Fox 56 poll (450 registered voters, Oct. 1-3, MoE +/- 4.6 percentage points). AS SEEN ON TV PRESIDENTIAL — Never Back Down, the super PAC backing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ presidential bid, is again positioning him against Trump — without mentioning the former president by name. KY-Gov — Bluegrass Freedom Action, a super PAC boosting Cameron in the Kentucky gubernatorial race, is tying Beshear to Biden and the southern border while touting Cameron’s endorsements from Trump and law enforcement. … Kentucky Values, a group affiliated with the RGA, is also going with the Beshear-Biden messaging, this time hitting the governor on crime, jobs and transgender policies. MS-Gov — Republican Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves and Presley are trading barbs over corruption. Reeves is calling Presley a “corrupt politician,” and Presley claims that the governor is “part of the largest corruption scandal in history.”   GO INSIDE THE CAPITOL DOME: From the outset, POLITICO has been your eyes and ears on Capitol Hill, providing the most thorough Congress coverage — from political characters and emerging leaders to leadership squabbles and policy nuggets during committee markups and hearings. We're stepping up our game to ensure you’re fully informed on every key detail inside the Capitol Dome, all day, every day. Start your day with Playbook AM, refuel at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report and enrich your evening discussions with Huddle. Plus, stay updated with real-time buzz all day through our brand new Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here.     STAFFING UP FIRST IN SCORE — Michelle Coyle, Natalie Rojas, Shane Greer and Shane D’Aprile are launching The Political Business Institute, which will help political firms launch and grow. Coyle will be CEO; Greer will be COO; D’Aprile will be chief marketing officer; and Rojas will be chief strategy officer. Coyle and Rojas are of BGSD Strategies, and Greer and D’Aprile are co-owners of trade publication Campaigns & Elections. — Hooff Cooksey is Iowa adviser for Haley's presidential campaign, per the Des Moines Register's Brianne Pfannenstiel. Cooksey is an NRSC and Kim Reynolds alum. CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — “There's worse things than watching 'Hawaii Five-0,' the original one, on a Friday night eating some Breyers ice cream.” — Steve Laffey, the former mayor of Cranston, R.I., to ABC News about dropping his presidential bid and leaving the Republican party.   Follow us on Twitter Steven Shepard @politico_steve Zach Montellaro @zachmontellaro Ally Mutnick @allymutnick Madison Fernandez @madfernandez616   Follow us

To change your alert settings, please log in at https://www.politico.com/_login?base=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com/settings This email was sent to rouf@idiot.cloudns.cc by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA Please click here and follow the steps to unsubscribe.