Scalise and Jordan's battle for centrists

Presented by the Brennan Center for Justice: An evening recap of the action on Capitol Hill and preview of the day ahead

Oct 04, 2023 View in browser   By Daniella Diaz Presented by With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) has announced his bid for speaker, but can he earn the support of centrists in the GOP conference? | AP SPEAKER SPOTLIGHT ON CENTRISTS Back in January, Kevin McCarthy struggled to get conservatives on board his bid for speaker. This time around, it’s going to be about who can lock up centrists. Frontrunners Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) and House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) have announced their bids, while Republican Study Committee chair Kevin Hern is also considering a run. Scalise and Jordan are both conservative and have already earned some endorsements from the right flank of the party. But centrists, the members who always had McCarthy’s back, are very much up for grabs. Different tactics: This is not going to play out the same way it did in January, when hard-right Republicans protested loudly throughout multiple rounds of votes. Centrist Republicans prefer quiet, behind-the-scenes dealmaking. So whoever the GOP nominates for speaker will likely try to have centrists lined up before a vote on the House floor. Who to watch: There are 18 Republicans who represent districts carried by President Joe Biden. Two influential names on the list are Reps. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), as well as a bloc of New York Republicans like Reps. Mike Lawler, Marc Molinaro and Anthony D'Esposito. D’Esposito implied he’s leaning towards Scalise, speaking highly of the majority leader to reporters Wednesday. But he declined to endorse him. “All I'm saying is that he understands what people in moderate districts need,” D’Esposito said. But others weren’t willing to dive into the race yet. Both Lawler and Molinaro gave no hint at which way they were leaning in hallway interviews Wednesday. Other centrists who fled the Capitol in frustration Tuesday night didn’t respond to our requests for comment. “I intend to keep my powder dry and work to define who best will serve not only the conference, but the people I represent as well,” Molinaro told reporters. Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.), another influential centrist, isn’t officially weighing in either, but he offered praise for Jordan Wednesday. “Who Jim Jordan is versus who I thought he was before I got to Congress are two completely different people. I've never seen anybody who works harder, prepares more and allows members … the opportunity and activity to engage and contribute to the team,” Armstrong said. Jordan, who is a member of the House Freedom Caucus, is already getting questions about his ideology and whether he can win over the centrists. He’s not hiding from his conservative bona fides, telling reporters he’s against bringing Ukraine aid to the House floor. “I think we’re a conservative center-right party. I think I’m the guy who can help unite that,” Jordan told reporters Wednesday morning. “My politics are entirely consistent with where Republicans are across the country.” Speaker math reminder: Whoever runs for speaker can only lose four GOP votes, assuming full attendance and united Democratic opposition. The race for House Republicans’ No. 2 role could also have a numbers problem, depending on how this plays out. Some Donald Trump allies are going after Emmer, the current GOP whip, as he seeks to move up one spot to House majority leader in the shuffle. Emmer has no plans to endorse Trump in the presidential primary, which has caused friction between the two camps. “America First Republicans are a hard no on Emmer for majority leader or speaker,” said Caroline Wren, a Trump fundraiser. “It’s no secret that Emmer hates Trump.” — Daniella Diaz, with assist from Sarah Ferris, Anthony Adragna and Nicholas Wu   A message from the Brennan Center for Justice: The current power of the Supreme Court would have been unimaginable in the founding era. Ethics scandals and extreme rulings have exposed a broken system in which justices wield tremendous power with little accountability. Justices now serve more than a decade longer on average than they used to. No one should have power for this long. It’s time for Congress to shore up the Supreme Court’s legitimacy by instituting term limits. Learn more: https://www.brennancenter.org/term-limits   GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Wednesday, Oct. 4, where the House is clearly haunted. (Happy October!) MCHENRY’S BLANK SLATE Acting Speaker Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) might be here a while. Allies of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy and conservative hardliners alike are all signaling that they would be A-OK with McHenry prolonging his stay in the gig. Given the unending party infighting and how the speakership ballots went last time, that’s looking like a very real possibility. “I told Patrick McHenry a little while ago ...: ‘You may want to get comfortable in your position of authority because I think that this could be a pretty arduous process trying to move forward,’” Rep. Garret Graves (R-La.) told reporters Wednesday. Rules say what?: The parliamentarian and the Rules Committee have been discussing the limits of McHenry’s “acting” role, but Graves said most people have concluded it’s a “blank slate, and so the limitations or the authority is really unknown.” That could still become a problem if members start itching to evict a non-elected leader. But conservatives, the most fight-prone faction of the House GOP, aren’t bothered by McHenry’s acting role right now. Even Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.), who voted to boot McCarthy, indicated he wasn’t sweating it, saying McHenry “started off pretty well by removing Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer” from their Capitol offices. “That is a role that is statutorily provided for [and] that will be largely ministerial,” said Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas). “We're just going to keep the House functioning.” Centrists aren’t really concerned either, though they do want to usher in more stability to the speakership. “It's not just about McHenry — I think he's a great human, a great leader — [but] I think we need solid [governance] and leadership and we need someone who is going to be there for the long haul,” said Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.). Where he stands: McHenry hasn’t answered questions about whether he would launch an official speaker bid. — Anthony Adragna   GROWING IN THE GOLDEN STATE: POLITICO California is growing, reinforcing our role as the indispensable insider source for reporting on politics, policy and power. From the corridors of power in Sacramento and Los Angeles to the players and innovation hubs in Silicon Valley, we're your go-to for navigating the political landscape across the state. Exclusive scoops, essential daily newsletters, unmatched policy reporting and insights — POLITICO California is your key to unlocking Golden State politics. LEARN MORE.     DEBUNKING BS SPEAKER CLAIMS  As is always the case when Congress is facing a speakership shakeup, there are a lot of rumors and theories floating around. Some of them are, frankly, not worth your time. But let’s dispel some of the most popular ones, just in case you’re asked: 1) There is not going to be a “unity candidate”: There’s only been one instance in modern history that a lawmaker backed a leader from the opposite party (h/t Playbook). That was in 2001, when the late Rep. James Traficant (D-Ohio) voted for Rep. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.) for speaker. As a result of the vote, Democrats stripped Traficant of his committees (eventually, he was hit with federal corruption charges and expelled from the House in 2002). And we saw this Democratic caucus’ strategy back in January. In all 15 ballots, every House Democrat voted for Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. They relished in the GOP chaos, and Republicans had no interest in cutting a deal with them — just like they didn’t step in to save McCarthy. Bottom line: The minority party in the House will not vote for the speaker. 2) Trump will not be speaker: That’s not to say some members aren’t going to bring up his name for the job (again). But, to be clear, it’s never gonna happen. A number of Trump allies are expected to vote for the former president on the first ballot, including Reps. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), Troy Nehls (R-Texas), Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and possibly Greg Steube (R-Fla.). But Trump could only lose four Republicans and still be speaker. He would never have that kind of support, even if he actually wanted it. 3) Democrats aren’t to blame for Gaetz’s machinations: There are a few threads on this, with Republicans acting like Democrats besmirched the institution or somehow used Gaetz as a puppet. So let’s be clear: Democrats voting in favor of McCarthy would have been unprecedented, especially because the former speaker publicly refused to make any sort of deal with them. Not to mention he antagonized them at seemingly every turn (blaming them for the shutdown, launching a Biden impeachment inquiry, etc.). The same Republicans would laugh at the idea they would’ve saved former Speaker Nancy Pelosi in a similar situation. Still, that’s not stopping Republicans from continuing to blame Democrats (so much that McHenry took away Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer’s Capitol hideaways). And theories that Gaetz was a puppet don’t hold much weight either; the Florida Republican has been champing at the bit to oust McCarthy for a while. “Matt Gaetz just got schooled by (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez) and others, he was totally manipulated into doing this,” Graves told reporters Wednesday. (Fact check: wrong.) — Daniella Diaz   A message from the Brennan Center for Justice:   HUDDLE HOTDISH Looks like Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) got his sushi back. If you’re wondering about McCarthy’s nameplate outside the Speaker’s suite – it’s still up as you read this.  The invites for Sen. Thom Tillis’ bipawtisan party are out and we are obsessed.   A message from the Brennan Center for Justice: The current power of the Supreme Court would have been unimaginable in the founding era. Ethics scandals and extreme rulings have exposed a broken system in which justices wield tremendous power with little accountability. They now serve more than a decade longer on average than they used to. In a democracy, no one should have power for life. More than two-thirds of Americans favor term limits for justices. And 49 states already impose limits on their supreme court justices. Staggered 18-year terms would bring regular turnover to the bench and result in a Court that better reflects the will of the people. It’s time for Congress to shore up the legitimacy of the Supreme Court by instituting term limits. Learn more: https://www.brennancenter.org/term-limits   QUICK LINKS  The rudderless GOP careens toward 2024, by Burgess Everett, Sarah Ferris and Ally Mutnick Inside the Menendez Indictment: A Mercedes and a Secretive Fatal Crash, by NYT’s Nicholas Fandos, Tracey Tully and Luis Ferré-Sadurní The White House never fully trusted McCarthy. But it didn’t celebrate his downfall, by Adam Cancryn, Jennifer Haberkorn, Lara Seligman and Sam Stein TOMORROW IN CONGRESS The House is not in session. The Senate is not in session. THURSDAY AROUND THE HILL *crickets*   GO INSIDE THE CAPITOL DOME: From the outset, POLITICO has been your eyes and ears on Capitol Hill, providing the most thorough Congress coverage — from political characters and emerging leaders to leadership squabbles and policy nuggets during committee markups and hearings. We're stepping up our game to ensure you’re fully informed on every key detail inside the Capitol Dome, all day, every day. Start your day with Playbook AM, refuel at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report and enrich your evening discussions with Huddle. Plus, stay updated with real-time buzz all day through our brand new Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here.     TRIVIA TUESDAY’S ANSWER: Steve Jenning correctly answered that Lucretia Garfield was the future First Lady who married one of her teachers and future President. TODAY’S QUESTION from Steve: Who was the first congresswoman to wear pants — bell bottoms! — on the floor of the House chamber? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to huddletrivia@politico.com. GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each evening. Follow Daniella on X at @DaniellaMicaela.   Follow us

To change your alert settings, please log in at https://www.politico.com/_login?base=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com/settings This email was sent to rouf@idiot.cloudns.cc by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA Please click here and follow the steps to unsubscribe.