The House GOP rivalry that will define the week

Presented by Chevron: An evening recap of the action on Capitol Hill and preview of the day ahead

Oct 23, 2023 View in browser   By Daniella Diaz Presented by Chevron With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team Jim Banks has kept a low profile in the House as he vies to succeed Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.), who is running for governor in the Hoosier State. | Francis Chung/POLITICO TICK TOCK: The government will shut down in 25 days if Congress can’t pass a funding patch. It’s been 20 days since the House last had an elected speaker. EMMER vs. BANKS: THE REAL MATCHUP House Republicans will start picking their next potential speaker less than 18 hours from now, and Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) is as close to a favorite as the nine-man race can claim to have. But his biggest opponent for the gavel is … running for Senate. Yes, we mean Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.). The backstory: Almost one year ago, House Republicans were reeling from a midterm election performance that fell far short of the 60-seat pickup Kevin McCarthy once boldly denvisioned. That lackluster performance, creating the small majority that made governing so hard for McCarthy, initially looked like it might work against Emmer as the Minnesotan competed with Banks and Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.) for the majority whip job. But in the end, Emmer won – after surviving the first ballot by just one vote. Before he did so, some bad blood between he and Banks got kicked up. It began in earnest after an anonymous Republican invoked Buckley Carlson, the son of the Fox News host and an aide to Banks, in a Daily Beast story. Banks’ allies, including Tucker Carlson and some in Donald Trump’s camp, latched onto the quote to argue that Emmer was dinging Banks as kowtowing to the Trump-friendly conservative media world. Tucker Carlson and Trump seem to be over it. Business Insider reported Monday that the former Fox News host will not get involved in the speaker’s fight. Trump, who has gotten calls from nearly half of the speakership candidates, also declined to take a shot at Emmer on Monday. Though he didn’t exactly issue a ringing endorsement: “I’m trying to stay out of that as much as possible,” Trump said of the speaker’s race on Monday. Banks is, potentially, another story. He’s kept a low profile in the House lately as he vies to succeed Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.), who is running for governor in the Hoosier State. But Banks has reposted on X to amplify content promoting Reps. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) and Mike Johnson (R-La.) in the speaker’s race – while also reposting a POLITICO story about Trump’s allies trying to thwart Emmer’s speakership race. Your Huddle host texted Banks to ask who he plans to support for speaker on Tuesday – with no response. His office didn’t respond to a request for comment on the matter. GOP opposites: As political personalities go, Emmer and Banks couldn't be more different. Banks, since his arrival on the Hill in 2017, has fashioned himself as a staunch supporter of Trump – despite displaying reservations before 2016, as did most Republicans. Banks later chaired the conservative Republican Study Committee and forged close relationships on the right flank of the conference. Emmer, since his first term began in 2015, has risen in the ranks on the strength of an affable hockey-dad-type reputation. He counts allies on the right flank, including Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), but his swath of influence is seen as ideologically broader thanks to his past leadership of the GOP campaign arm. And just listen to the candor with which Emmer addressed the frequent divisions within the House GOP during a March interview with our Sarah Ferris and Olivia Beavers. “When people say it’s family, no way. We’d be the most dysfunctional family on the face of the planet,” Emmer said then, referring to House Republicans’ highly divergent political bases. “It’s not about people liking each other, going out and socializing together, loving one another. They don’t. And you should not force that.” — Daniella Diaz   A message from Chevron: Chevron knows methane management is critical for a lower carbon future. We’re striving to lead in methane management with innovative practices, partnerships, and new technologies. These are a few ways we’re aiming to keep methane in the pipe.   GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Monday, Oct. 23 where we cannot believe we’re doing this all over again this week. SENATE SPENDING DEBATE VIBE CHECK: NOT GREAT! When senators return to session Tuesday, they’re hoping to demonstrate progress on government funding bills as well as movement on the White House’s national security supplemental request — which came in at a whopping $106 billion. Both of those goals won’t be easy. Objecting to an aid marriage: The White House emergency funding request lumps together aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, a notion that’s effectively D.O.A. with the House GOP (once it can open its chamber for business again). But the effort probably has some legs in the Senate, even though Republicans won’t love making support for Israel conditional on help for Ukraine. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell tried to soften the ground on his side of the aisle this weekend by framing the mega-aid package as a way to stick it to Iran, China and Russia all at once. “It's a lot, but it's the things that are urgent because of circumstances. And this is not something that's been put together for the convenience of the leadership," Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.) said on the supplemental request Monday. The caveat: Border security provisions are also supposed to be in the emergency aid deal, which is likely to complicate things even in the Senate. As Welch put it diplomatically to reporters, “The border is always difficult.” Republicans are likely to push for more than what the administration is asking for the border, either when it comes to policy changes, funding, or both. “There’s a lot of debate about what some of the policies are. And that's a fair debate. But it's unlikely that, in the supplemental, there'll be a lot of room to address that," Welch said. On top of that, other Democrats want to pack even more funding into the deal. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) on Monday called for lawmakers to also seek money for domestic “crises” like “child care, health care, housing, opioid addiction — that need major funding NOW.” The Biden administration is expected to send another supplemental request this week focused on domestic issues like the ones Sanders outlined, as our colleagues recently reported. But that separate request would be a nearly-impossible sell for Republicans on both sides of the Capitol. As for government funding: It’s not looking stellar there, either. Schumer said in a floor speech last week that the Senate’s attempt to pass a package of three individual spending bills was slowed by Republican “poison pill amendments.” There’s been slim to no progress on that front since Congress narrowly averted a shutdown before the Oct. 1 deadline. Still, count Welch in the staying-positive camp. “I feel very confident in the Senate,” Welch said. "Any individual senator can slow things down, but the principles I think are widely shared on” both sides. Of course, senators are acutely aware that the timing on almost everything they do is subject to the will of the House. And given how things are going across the Capitol, that makes another stopgap bill — or a shutdown — seem all the more likely. “They've got to get the speakership issue figured out in the House, and then I hope we can get on those appropriation bills here,” Senate Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) said last week. “The more progress we can make on approps and the actual appropriations process, the more likely it is that we can avoid outcomes that nobody wants.” — Ursula Perano   GROWING IN THE GOLDEN STATE: POLITICO California is growing, reinforcing our role as the indispensable insider source for reporting on politics, policy and power. From the corridors of power in Sacramento and Los Angeles to the players and innovation hubs in Silicon Valley, we're your go-to for navigating the political landscape across the state. Exclusive scoops, essential daily newsletters, unmatched policy reporting and insights — POLITICO California is your key to unlocking Golden State politics. LEARN MORE.     HOW THE GOP’S INTERNAL SPEAKER’S VOTE WILL GO When Republicans gather behind closed doors to crown their third speaker nominee in as many weeks, it could take up to eight ballots. Buckle up, folks. The first secret ballot for GOP lawmakers will end with the lowest vote-getter removed from the roster, and members will then revote with eight candidates — continuing the ballots until one man clinches majority backing. The House Republican conference’s rules dictate this “exhaustive ballot” approach, which makes every vote count in the early rounds of a nine-way race. Candidates with similar blocs of support could also be at a disadvantage, with those allies effectively canceling each other out and preventing otherwise formidable candidates from hanging on. Another twist to keep in mind: Candidates can drop out before the ballots knock them out. Which brings us to what we might call the Ross Perot effect – the possibility that an Option C spoiler could swing the race once it gets down to three men with two apparent favorites.Some Republicans told Huddle they could see the field condense after two or three ballots with possibly Emmer, Kevin Hern and Mike Johnson having the most votes. Of the nine Republicans running, only eight have signed a pledge that would commit to electing the speaker designate when they come to a vote on the House floor which was first reported by Olivia. Rep. Gary Palmer (R-Ala.) is the only lawmaker running who hasn’t signed the letter. — Jennifer Scholtes and Daniella Diaz   A message from Chevron:   HUDDLE HOTDISH Your Huddle host agrees with Donald Trump — only Jesus Christ could get 217 votes for speaker at this point. QUICK LINKS  Battleground Dem senators consider bucking Biden on border, Iran, from Burgess Everett and Ursula Perano 6 things to know about the men (yes, they’re all men) who want to be speaker, from Anthony Adragna TRANSITIONS  Kailyn McCourt has been promoted to be scheduler for Rep. Seth Magaziner (D-R.I.). Will Sroka has been promoted to be legislative director for Rep. Rob Wittman (R-Va.).   A message from Chevron: By 2028, our upstream methane intensity target is set to be 53% below the 2016 baseline. To help us get there, we’ve trialed over 13 advanced methane technologies including satellites, planes, drones, and fixed sensors to help reduce methane emissions intensity. In the Permian, we have deployed real-time autonomous optimizers that continuously monitor facilities and well conditions to help prevent flaring, venting and well shutdowns. Developing new solutions to provide energy that’s affordable, reliable and ever-cleaner, that’s energy in progress.   TOMORROW IN CONGRESS House Republicans will convene at 9 a.m. for their candidate forum. The House will convene at 11 a.m. The Senate convenes at 10 a.m. with a vote at 2:15 p.m. TUESDAY AROUND THE HILL 10:30 a.m. Rep. Gwen Moore (D-Wis.) will host a press conference on the Worker Relief and Credit Reform Act. (House Triangle)   PLAYBOOK IS GOING GLOBAL! We’re excited to introduce Global Playbook, POLITICO’s premier newsletter that brings you inside the most important conversations at the most influential events in the world. From the buzzy echoes emanating from the snowy peaks at the WEF in Davos to the discussions and personalities at Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to the heart of diplomacy at UNGA in New York City – author Suzanne Lynch brings it all to your fingertips. Experience the elite. Witness the influential. And never miss a global beat. BE PART OF THE CONVERSATION. SUBSCRIBE NOW.     TRIVIA FRIDAY’S ANSWER: Michael Herson correctly answered that Illinois’ senate delegation has adjacent names in the Senate's alphabetical roster – Sens. Tammy Duckworth and Dick Durbin. TODAY’S QUESTION: Who was the first president to attend a baseball game’s opening day and throw the ceremonial first pitch? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answers to huddletrivia@politico.com. GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each evening. Follow Daniella on X at @DaniellaMicaela.   Follow us

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