The many tech fronts in the Middle East

Presented by CTIA – The Wireless Association: How the next wave of technology is upending the global economy and its power structures

Oct 16, 2023 View in browser   By Derek Robertson Presented by CTIA – The Wireless Association The aftermath of an Israeli airstrike in Gaza. | Fatima Shbair/AP Photo The news from Israel and Gaza has come so fast and furious that it can be difficult, if not impossible to track how it’s changing the battlefields of the future (digital and otherwise). An entirely new kind of warfare is unfolding in the Middle East (and Ukraine), merging traditional military conflict with digital subterfuge that can incorporate new technological tools and turn traditional power dynamics on their head. (Take Hamas receiving more than $134 million in crypto dating back to 2021, for example.) Let’s catch up on a few recent developments as the future of war continues to unfold amid the human catastrophe: Cyber-warfare is still rampant, and evolving to fit the conflict. POLITICO’s Antoaneta Roussi and Maggie Miller reported this weekend on the extent to which digitally savvy supporters of Hamas are wreaking havoc by trying to take down everything from Israeli newspapers to the country’s Iron Dome missile defense system. An Israel-based cybersecurity group told Antoaneta and Maggie that it detected more than 40 groups disrupting more than 80 sites beginning on the day of Hamas’ first attack, according to a spokesperson. Many of the groups behind the cyberattacks are aligned with Iran and Russia. “Hamas and Hezbollah and Iranian-backed hackers are a heck of a lot better than you might think,” United States House Intelligence Committee ranking member Jim Himes (D-Conn.) said last week, citing their capabilities despite the relatively low levels of internet connectivity in Gaza. To that point, Antoaneta and Maggie write that “The hacks are likely to be coming from outside of Gaza given the low internet connectivity there even before the strikes, and with the power cuts and bombing strikes from Israel in ensuing days.” Don’t discount Hamas’ cyber capabilities, however: As Audrey Kurth Cronin, director of the Carnegie Mellon Institute for Security and Technology, told me during a recent conversation, Hamas’ broader suite of tech tools “are not cutting edge but they're extremely effective if they're used in well-planned ways.” And speaking of asymmetry… Cronin additionally warned, in an op-ed published by Foreign Policy yesterday, that the overwhelming on-paper advantage Israel wields against Hamas could end up backfiring — a perpetual feature of war in a world where modern militaries wield massive technological advantages. “Overwhelming military oppression in Gaza would backfire, stirring support for resistance and aligning Israel’s adversaries against it,” Cronin writes, noting that smaller forces have attempted to provoke their larger opponents throughout the history of warfare. What separates modern-day Israel from Tsarist Russia or Sri Lanka, to borrow a couple of her comparisons where governments brutally cracked down on dissidents, is the incredibly sophisticated surveillance and security apparatus they have at their disposal to surveil and restrain Palestinians. She concludes that “Without a clear endgame, a renewed occupation of Gaza could further split the country.” This war could change the future of social media. The European Union, which has some of the strictest social media regulations in the world, continued its ongoing efforts to clamp down on harmful or false content related to the war last week, most recently warning YouTube to clean up. (The EU sent similar letters to Meta, X, and TikTok.) That’s easier said than done. To put it mildly, digital media tends to move faster than government bureaucracy — especially when the world’s leading contrarian futurist is in charge of one major platform. That means misunderstandings, debates, or even just outright lies about grisly images from the battlefield, alleged political censorship, or threatening inter-governmental smack talk continues to run rampant. Speaking to POLITICO’s Steven Overly on today’s POLITICO Tech podcast, Nathaniel Fick, the U.S. ambassador at large for cyberspace and digital policy, said tech companies need to clear that fog themselves. “Tech platforms have the capacity to inform communities, they have the capacity to disseminate accurate information rather than to fuel hate, confusion, and violence,” Fick said. “It’s especially important right now for all actors from politicians to tech platforms to citizens to demonstrate some restraint and act responsibly during what is intrinsically a very volatile time.” Some social media users are stepping into that information void, adapting the Arab Spring liveblogging ethos for a new tech era and demonstrating how the combination of an amorphous, inscrutable conflict and to-the-minute livestreaming can forge a new kind of war reporting. Bisan Odeh, a twentysomething Palestinian influencer, has been posting regular updates from within Gaza to her Instagram page. Unvetted as they might be, their popularity and reach point to the unpredictable future created by the pile-up of conflict and technology in this conflict.   A message from CTIA – The Wireless Association: China is pushing countries to adopt their 5G spectrum vision and build a global market that favors their tech companies. To counter China’s ambitions, we need our own compelling vision for U.S. spectrum leadership over the next decade, and a clear commitment to make more 5G spectrum available. For our economic competitiveness, our national security, and our 5G leadership, America needs a bold new National Spectrum Strategy. Learn more.   on the agenda United Kingdom Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. | Oli Scarff/AFP/Getty Images The United Kingdom’s Department for Science, Innovation and Technology has released the agenda for its upcoming AI summit, which will bring together some of the world’s foremost AI powers — including, somewhat controversially, China — to hash out how governments can keep pace with the dizzying speed of AI development. On the menu: A heavy dose of talk about “frontier models,” defined usually by the industry as AI systems that exceed the capabilities of today’s leading models. That’s in keeping with U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s previously-documented orientation toward addressing the most out-there, potentially existential AI risks. Topics include “Risks to Global Safety from Frontier AI Misuse,” “Risks from Loss of Control over Frontier AI,” and “Risks from the Integration of Frontier AI into Society.” On the second day, Sunak will speak to “a small group of governments, companies and experts” to whom he plans to pitch, as POLITICO reported earlier this month, an “AI Safety Institute” that will help governments evaluate and plan for the potential risks posed by frontier models.   A message from CTIA – The Wireless Association:   making the grade Much of the conversation around last year’s CHIPS and Science Act has focused on microchip manufacturing infrastructure, but America’s educators are now questioning how they’re going to train a workforce to man it. POLITICO’s Morning Education reported today on how institutions from elementary schools to the highest-profile research universities have their hands full trying to prepare the U.S. workforce to handle the Biden administration and Congress’ aspirations to bring chip manufacturing to the United States. “There is a need for industry to have 100,000 semiconductor technicians,” Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo recently told legislators. “That number is going to go up to about 300,000 pretty quickly. Technicians don’t need a four-year college degree. The community college is a perfect training ground. Maybe a high school plus credentialing program.” Morning Education points out that the planned National Semiconductor Technology Center authorized by the CHIPS and Science Act is supposed to play a major role in this process, coordinating between schools, the government, and the private sector.   GO INSIDE THE CAPITOL DOME: From the outset, POLITICO has been your eyes and ears on Capitol Hill, providing the most thorough Congress coverage — from political characters and emerging leaders to leadership squabbles and policy nuggets during committee markups and hearings. We're stepping up our game to ensure you’re fully informed on every key detail inside the Capitol Dome, all day, every day. Start your day with Playbook AM, refuel at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report and enrich your evening discussions with Huddle. Plus, stay updated with real-time buzz all day through our brand new Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here.     Tweet of the Day THE FUTURE IN 5 LINKS Amorphous AI “agents” are already displaying their ability to replace workers. Are humans standing in the way of an AI-powered boost to the economy? Crypto optimists are looking to Asia amid the industry downturn. A “carbon-negative” search engine is cautiously eyeing Google and AI. Bitcoin slipped after BlackRock tapped the brakes on a planned ETF. Stay in touch with the whole team: Ben Schreckinger (bschreckinger@politico.com); Derek Robertson (drobertson@politico.com); Mohar Chatterjee (mchatterjee@politico.com); Steve Heuser (sheuser@politico.com); Nate Robson (nrobson@politico.com) and Daniella Cheslow (dcheslow@politico.com). If you’ve had this newsletter forwarded to you, you can sign up and read our mission statement at the links provided.   A message from CTIA – The Wireless Association: America’s spectrum policy is stuck in neutral. The FCC’s spectrum auction authority has not been renewed, there is no pipeline of new spectrum for 5G, and China is poised to dominate global spectrum discussions, pushing for 15X more 5G spectrum than the U.S. America cannot afford to fall behind and become a spectrum island. The Biden Administration’s forthcoming National Spectrum Strategy is a unique and important opportunity to recommit ourselves to a bold vision for global spectrum leadership, secure our 5G leadership today and long-term leadership of the industries and innovations of the future. For our economic competitiveness and our national security, we need a National Spectrum Strategy that is committed to allocating 1500 MHz of new mid-band spectrum for 5G, and that reaffirms the critical role that NTIA and the FCC play in leading the nation’s spectrum policy. Learn more.     The British Embassy Washington joins POLITICO for a live recording of the POLITICO Tech podcast today, joined by Emran Mian, the UK’s Director General for Digital Technologies and Telecoms. Emran is playing a key role in preparations ahead of the first-ever global AI Safety Summit at Bletchley Park on November 1st and 2nd. This summit will see the UK convening international governments, industry, leading AI companies and research experts for talks on AI safety regulation.       Follow us on Twitter Ben Schreckinger @SchreckReports Derek Robertson @afternoondelete Steve Heuser @sfheuser   Follow us

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