Turned off by the turnout

Your afternoon must-read briefing on politics and government in the Golden State

Feb 27, 2024 View in browser   By Lara Korte Voters cast their ballots early at the Los Angeles County Registrar's Office in Norwalk, California, on Nov. 5, 2018. | Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images ENTHUSIASM GAP: This year could be one of the most consequential elections for Californians — but you wouldn’t know that by looking at ballot returns. Every single one of California’s 22 million registered voters is supposed to receive a mail ballot for the March 5 primary, but as of this afternoon, only 1.7 million had sent them back to their county election offices — about 8 percent of the total, according to Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc. and California’s de facto voter roll guru. A few hundred votes could make a world of difference in California’s swing districts — like those held by Republican Reps. David Valadao and John Duarte in the Central Valley — which will help decide control of the House of Representatives. Then there’s the high-stakes Senate race, where Democratic Rep. Katie Porter is straining to box out Republican Steve Garvey for second place behind Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff.  "This is the kind of thing that would benefit Steve Garvey," Mitchell said of the turnout numbers. "Because of lower turnout, he's more likely to have a smaller number of Republicans being able to launch him into the runoff." Primary turnout is typically all over the map. But there’s potential for this year to be among the lowest we’ve seen in history due to an all-but-decided presidential primary and voter apathy. As conventional wisdom goes, presidential elections are supposed to drive up turnout, but California is, in fact, lagging behind the 2022 midterm return rate, when the state had more ballots returned by this point in the race. Ultimately, 2022 saw a 33 percent turnout. There’s dozens of factors that could affect the state’s final turnout number, but Mitchell is cautiously speculating that only 29 percent of California’s registered voters will turn in their ballots, falling below the current record low of 31 percent in 2012. “Voters don’t view this as being an election that is the ‘most important election’ of their lifetime,” Mitchell said. This is the exact thing California’s Democrat-dominated government has been trying to avoid. The state in recent years has taken steps to increase voter turnout, including sanctioning a “motor voter” program allowing eligible voters to register at the DMV, and automatically sending all eligible voters mail ballots. A recent poll from the Public Policy Institute of California found low numbers of likely voters are excited about the election. Less than 40 percent said they were “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about voting for president this year. That number dropped even further (28 percent) when it came to voting for Congress. Another factor that helps drive up turnout is a competitive battle at the top of the ballot. But with President Joe Biden holding steady as the presumptive nominee for Democrats, and former President Donald Trump making a near clean-sweep through the early Republican primary states, there’s so far little cause for action in the top contests. If you’re one of the nearly 20 million voters who hasn’t cast a ballot yet, fret not. You have until March 5 to get it postmarked. But we wouldn’t wait that long, if we were you. IT’S TUESDAY AFTERNOON. This is California Playbook PM, a POLITICO newsletter that serves as an afternoon temperature check on California politics and a look at what our policy reporters are watching. Got tips or suggestions? Shoot an email to lkorte@politico.com or send a shout on X. DMs are open. WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY The Macy's store at Union Square is seen Tuesday in San Francisco. The retailer will close 150 stores over the next three years. | AP CLEARANCE SALE: Macy’s will close its flagship store in San Francisco’s Union Square, a devastating blow to the city’s premier shopping district and its struggling downtown core. The move is part of the retailer’s announcement that it will close 150 underperforming stores nationwide. The news was a psychological hit to a city that’s struggled more than most to rebound post-pandemic. Macy’s at Union Square has a generations-old nostalgia for many San Franciscans. Think holiday shopping with ice skating and store windows filled with Christmas wreaths, glittering lights and barking puppies. Even if residents weren’t shopping there much, it held a sense of place. Mayor London Breed downplayed the news when she spoke to reporters this morning, saying the Macy’s exit is unrelated to concerns about crime because the city has seen a dip in retail theft the last four months. “So we know this has nothing to do with that decision, it’s really a larger business decision that Macy’s has made,” Breed said. “This is a completely different situation, and I look at it as an opportunity.” The mayor said Macy’s will stay open until it finds a buyer for its iconic Union Square building (the San Francisco Chronicle reported that the location won’t close until at least 2025). Breed said she’s optimistic the building will find a meaningful new use. And while big-box retailers have fled the city by the dozens, luxury stores around Union Square are thriving. The Macy’s departure couldn’t have come at a worst time for Breed, who faces a tough reelection fight in November. Her major challengers were quick to pounce on the bad headlines. — Dustin Gardiner On The Beats ON THE HOOK?: Gov. Gavin Newsom’s plan to close the state budget deficit creates a bit of an awkward dilemma for Los Angeles. Mayor Karen Bass said today that her city has either already committed or spent $11 million in housing grants that would be returned to the state under Newsom’s January budget proposal. Bass told reporters about the problem before she headed into a meeting today with the governor, warning it would undermine her city’s efforts to address homelessness. No word on whether the two leaders managed to resolve the issue. — Blake Jones  PICKING UP THE TAB: It wasn’t all bad news for Los Angeles. The state today announced that the city and surrounding area would receive $300 million in reimbursement for costs they incurred dealing with the effects of this year’s epic rain as well as for some COVID-19 response. The reimbursement was announced today by Newsom and Bass following their meeting in Sacramento. The funding will come from the Federal Emergency Management Agency — so it won’t add to the state’s looming budget deficit. — Blake Jones WHAT WE'RE READING TODAY THE RIGHT TO BEAR CLUBS: Federal Judge Roger Benitez has struck down California’s long-standing law banning the possession of billy clubs and similar weapons on 2nd Amendment grounds, the latest in a series of rulings in which the San Diego-based jurist has adopted a strict interpretation of the right to have a weapon. (The San Diego Union-Tribune) HOLDING A GRUDGE: Rep. Kevin Kiley has made a mission of trying to block the nomination of Julie Su, the former state labor commissioner, to lead the U.S. Labor Department because of her role in enforcing the law that made it harder to classify workers as independent contractors in California. (San Francisco Chronicle) EVOLVING PLANS: The billionaire-backed plan to build a new city from scratch on Solano County farmland has been altered, adding language to a proposed ballot measure that would obligate the developers to set aside land for rail right-of-ways and stations. (Fast Company)   Follow us on Twitter POLITICO California @politicoca   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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