Americans wrap their heads around AI

How the next wave of technology is upending the global economy and its power structures

Mar 14, 2024 View in browser   By Derek Robertson Kirill Kudryatsev/AFP via Getty Images The legal battle between two of the most powerful men in Silicon Valley heated up this week, with OpenAI calling Elon Musk’s legal claims against it “convoluted” and “incoherent.” Both sides make lofty claims about protecting humanity’s best interests, with Musk saying the secrecy in which OpenAI develops its powerful ChatGPT model masks a greedy recklessness, and OpenAI’s Sam Altman saying their business model protects the public from bad actors using their powerful tools to nefarious ends. But humanity itself has been a bit distracted by more quotidian problems with AI, according to new polling from the Artificial Intelligence Policy Institute. When we say they might not be following this legal fracas closely, we mean it: 60 percent of the 1,014 web panel respondents surveyed on March 10 said they’ve heard “nothing at all” about the Musk-OpenAI lawsuit. That isn’t to say, however, that they don’t have any thoughts about the ultimate outcome if you take Musk and Altman’s arguments at face value. A few key takeaways: Americans want collaboration, but within limits. When asked whether “Providing access to AI models to academic researchers” was “good or bad for humanity,” 71 percent of respondents said it was “good.” On the other hand, when prompted in the same way about “Open sourcing powerful AI models so it’s easier for more developers to use and alter powerful AI models without restrictions,” 74 percent said it was “bad.” And when asked whether it’s more important that OpenAI democratize the market by releasing its models as “open source” or that they don’t release them until “proven safe,” only 16 percent responded in favor of the former. To extrapolate from the question posed here, Americans clearly blanch at the idea of completely unrestricted, unsupervised AI development and collaboration. As we noted yesterday, however, it’s rarely as simple as “open” and “closed.” Open source AI repositories like HuggingFace have been an invaluable tool to the AI research community, especially for those without the means or access to partner directly with larger, closed AI shops, but they’ve also proved undeniably, worryingly vulnerable to cyberattacks. As elections draw nearer, Americans are more worried about deepfakes. Respondents are expending a fair amount of energy trying to navigate the increasingly AI-driven media environment, with nearly 48 percent saying they “have more trouble identifying which photos are real” since the arrival of powerful generative AI systems, compared to only 20 percent who do not. A combined 85 percent said they were “very” or “somewhat” concerned that AI will make it more difficult to believe the veracity of real photos or videos. When it comes to policy proposals, 72 percent supported a mandate for watermarking AI content, while only 6 percent opposed it. Another 62 percent said they supported the call made by President Joe Biden during his recent State of the Union address to ban AI voice impersonation. AI might be the rare policy issue that still unites Americans — for now. Examining the crosstabs of the poll, which break down responses by age, gender, race, education status, party affiliation (Republican, Independent, or Democrat), and political self-identification (liberal, moderate, or conservative), differences between responses largely fall within or around the poll’s margin of error of 4.9 percent. (Some differences largely track with the modern political landscape, like Democrats being marginally more in favor of AI companies censoring “inappropriate or offensive” content.) But there are signs that a generational shift could be in the cards. The youngest demographic tracked, those 18 to 44 years old, are consistently more likely to support open-sourcing powerful AI models when asked the previously mentioned questions on the topic. They’re also less supportive of watermarks than other age groups, and less concerned that they’ll be able to successfully distinguish real images from fake ones — implying a greater level of comfort with the technology that could shape the debate around it as that generation ages into political power. Read the full poll results and their crosstabs.   YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics.      states vs. big ai Some experts are urging states to break up what they see as AI monopolies before it’s too late. In an op-ed for POLITICO Magazine, Vanderbilt University law professor Ganesh Sitaraman and Economic Security Project President Natalie Foster write that states should fill the legislative vacuum left by Congress when it comes to encouraging competition in the AI sector. They cite CalCompute, California’s proposed “public option” for cloud computing, and a similar proposal from Gov. Kathy Hochul in New York. “State-level actions are not perfect, of course, in part because a patchwork of regulation across the country is undesirable. California law, however, has an outsized impact on how tech companies operate since many of them are California-based; some even argue that Sacramento can wield a similar influence to Brussels, the power seat of the EU, when it comes to tech regulation.” cbdcs keep rolling (everywhere else) Central bank digital currencies keep expanding across the globe even as they become an increasingly partisan policy issue. POLITICO’s Morning Money reported today on their continuing rollout, as the Atlantic Council now says 68 countries are experimenting with the form of state-issued digital currency. Josh Lipsky, Atlantic Council GeoEconomics Center senior director, told MM it’s a globally collaborative project: “As more and more countries do it, as they communicate, as they share best practices, this generates innovation because you don’t have to do this all from scratch.” Here in the U.S., the picture isn’t so rosy. Pro-crypto conservatives have decried government-issued cryptocurrencies as a form of digital surveillance, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that the U.S. isn’t “remotely close” to issuing a CBDC. Lipsky called the U.S. lagging behind on CBDCs a potential “risk to U.S. national security. Think of sanctions evasion possibly. It could be a risk to dollar dominance in the long-term if the dollar is not at the center of these cross-border payments.” Tweet of the Day The Future in 5 links Elon Musk abruptly canceled Don Lemon’s broadcast deal on X. AI is driving demand at the Taiwanese manufacturer Foxconn. SpaceX’s Starship rocket made another successful test flight. Regulators can’t afford the AI expertise they need. OpenAI is stealthily consolidating a suite of media deals. Stay in touch with the whole team: Derek Robertson (drobertson@politico.com); Mohar Chatterjee (mchatterjee@politico.com); Steve Heuser (sheuser@politico.com); Nate Robson (nrobson@politico.com); Daniella Cheslow (dcheslow@politico.com); and Christine Mui (cmui@politico.com). If you’ve had this newsletter forwarded to you, you can sign up and read our mission statement at the links provided.   JOIN US ON 3/21 FOR A TALK ON FINANCIAL LITERACY: Americans from all communities should be able to save, build wealth, and escape generational poverty, but doing so requires financial literacy. How can government and industry ensure access to digital financial tools to help all Americans achieve this? Join POLITICO on March 21 as we explore how Congress, regulators, financial institutions and nonprofits are working to improve financial literacy education for all. REGISTER HERE.       Follow us on Twitter Ben Schreckinger @SchreckReports Derek Robertson @afternoondelete Steve Heuser @sfheuser   Follow us

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