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China downplays risks ahead of Yellen visit

Presented by the National Foreign Trade Council (NFTC): Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Trade examines the latest news in global trade politics and policy.
Mar 25, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Ari Hawkins

Presented by the National Foreign Trade Council (NFTC)

QUICK FIX

— Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will be in China next month, giving Beijing a chance to parse economic disputes with the United States as China looks to allay concerns from Western business groups over the country’s regulatory environment.

— Republican Chair Mike Gallagher is stepping down early, fueling even greater uncertainty over the future of the House Select Committee on China.

— A group of senators is pushing legislation to strike a 15 percent tariff on titanium sponge imports used in defense and military production from countries with preferential trade status, particularly Japan.

It’s Monday, March 25. Welcome to Morning Trade! Hope you got a glimpse of the super Worm Moon lunar eclipse early this morning. Follow its trajectory here.

Got some trade news to share? Reach us at: ahawkins@politico.com, gbade@politico.com and dpalmer@politico.com. You can also follow us on X: @_arihawkins, @gavinbade and @tradereporter.

 

A message from the National Foreign Trade Council (NFTC):

At the U.S.-EU Trade and Technology Council (TTC) next week, the Biden Administration has an opportunity to stand up for American job creators by pressing for alignment around an open, global digital economy and pushing the European Union to reject policies that discriminate against U.S. companies. Learn more about how a shared transatlantic economic agenda that addresses the EU’s discriminatory practices supports more than 18 million American jobs and bolsters U.S. national security HERE.

 

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Driving the day

Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen speaks.

Janet Yellen’s travel plan reflects the administration’s efforts to sustain a still-fragile stability in bilateral ties battered over the past year. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | Alex Wong/Getty Images

YELLEN TO CHINA AMID ECONOMIC TENSIONS: Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is traveling to China next month to engage in talks with senior leaders, two U.S. government officials told POLITICO.

The Biden administration hasn’t confirmed the visit, which will come as tensions remain strained over trade feuds including restrictions on exports of high-tech goods like chip manufacturing equipment. China is looking to open its market to overseas firms after investment fell to record lows, but business leaders have expressed unease over Beijing’s strict regulatory environment and policies over data collection.

The trip functions as a follow-up to Yellen’s meetings in Beijing in July that resulted in the formation of new Economic and Financial Working Groups designed for “frank and substantive discussions” on contentious issues.

Beijing’s pitch: Chinese Premier Li Qiang downplayed foreign investors’ concerns during a speech at the China Development Forum over the weekend, and said “some difficulties and problems are not as serious as people think.” Li added that the country will study issues around cross-border data flows and market access.

"We cordially welcome companies from all countries to invest in China and deepen their foothold in China," Li said, per Reuters.

But despite reassurances from top Chinese officials, global CEOs say the risk-reward trade-off for investing in China has dramatically shifted as long-term growth prospects in the country falter.

Jens Eskelund, president of the European Chamber in China, warned in a podcast last week that “there’s still quite a high level of uncertainty when it comes to the policy environment, the regulatory environment in China.”

Nicholas Burns, the U.S. ambassador to China, weighed in on the state of China’s economy more broadly during a recent webinar with the East-West Center. “Most economists that I read out here, American and Chinese, are predicting that in a year or two or three China will be down to 2 or 3 percent nominal GDP growth,” he said, adding “there are structural issues out here.”

WHAT’S NEXT FOR THE CHINA COMMITTEE? Republican Chair Mike Gallagher (Wis.) is stepping down early, leaving a hole on the House Select Committee on China. The group was already rife with internal divisions, including over whether it should even be renewed after its current mandate expires.

Still, his departure, planned for April 19, is surprising given that the committee recently nabbed a legacy-making moment: House passage of a bipartisan bill that would force TikTok in the U.S. to sever its ties to the Chinese government. The legislation is now facing an uncertain future in the Senate, where some lawmakers have expressed concerns over its constitutionality.

"I've worked closely with House Republican leadership on this timeline and look forward to seeing Speaker Mike Johnson appoint a new chair to carry out the important mission of the Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party," Gallagher said.

Peak under the hood: A House Select China Committee staffer said they expect the panel’s work to continue uninterrupted into the next session.

Gallagher’s departure “is only a speed bump,” the staffer said. “The China piece is something that, as a committee, helps both Democrats and Republicans at a very political time.”

Eleanor Mueller and Olivia Beavers have more.

BILL TO TIGHTEN DEFENSE SUPPLY CHAIN: A group of senators is pushing the “Securing America’s Titanium Manufacturing Act” that would remove a 15 percent tariff to titanium sponge imports from close trade partners until 2031.

Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.V.), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), and Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.V.) introduced the bill Thursday, which would strike the duty for countries with preferential trade status. The tariff would still apply to imports from Belarus, Cuba, North Korea and Russia.

“Titanium is a critical mineral essential for engines, military fighter aircraft, satellite parts, and many other military technologies,” Manchin said. His office said the U.S. titanium industry imports all of its sponge, with 90 percent coming from Japan.

Reminder: The bill reflects certain recommendations outlined in an August 2023 report, “Titanium Sponge Working Group,” which concluded removing the tariff would benefit the domestic titanium industry, but noted the U.S. lacked the statutory authority to do so.

The bill would provide that statutory authority. It would also require the president to monitor imports from China, and reapply the tariffs if necessary to protect domestic industry or national security. The legislation is supported by the United Steelworkers, the Aerospace Industry Association and the Titanium Metals Corporation, per Manchin’s office.

SENS CALL FOR CHINA THREAT ANALYSIS: Lawmakers also introduced the “American Economic Independence Act” that would compel the president to conduct a “comprehensive threat analysis” posed by economic integration with Beijing in areas like critical minerals and artificial intelligence.

“After delivering the threat analysis, the Executive Branch would be tasked with providing recommendations to Congress to mitigate the national security risks posed by China in each economic sector,” wrote the sponsors, which include Sens. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), John Cornyn(R-Texas), James Lankford (R-Okla.), Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.) and Todd Young (R-Ind.).

 

A message from the National Foreign Trade Council (NFTC):

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LATIN AMERICA CORNER

PLANS MOUNT FOR A NEW SEMICONDUCTOR HUB: Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo wrapped up a trip to Costa Rica last week to celebrate a program to boost the country's semiconductor supply chain.

Friendshoring galore: The strategic plan aims to bolster the country's workforce development, shore up incentives and investment attraction and strengthen regulation. Reminder — Costa Rica was the first nation designated as a strategic ally of the United States, under the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022.

“The United States understands that they cannot carry this by themselves, they need partners in the semiconductor race, that’s why they’ve engaged with Costa Rica," Manuel Tovar Rivera, Costa Rica's minister of foreign trade and investment, who met with Raimondo last week, told Morning Trade in an interview.

Raimondo also spoke with Costa Rican President Rodrigo Chaves, who reaffirmed the country's ambitions to join the USMCA ahead of the 2026 joint review, which the country is eyeing as an informal target for expansion, Rivera said.

Ambition meets reality: When asked about prospects for USMCA expansion in the near future, Rivera said “the U.S. is entering a political cycle, and we don’t expect any positive response. But not because they don’t want it, just because of how politics is played.”

International Overnight

— Nearly 50 House Democrats are calling on the Biden administration to take steps to remove the Investor-State Dispute Settlement from CAFTA-DR.

— Several aluminum groups sent a letter urging the U.S., Mexico and Canada to increase efforts to monitor and enforce trade rules.

— Commerce to consider labor and environment in anti-dumping probes, your host reports.

— Worries about potential China-Taiwan conflict spur state legislation, Phelim Kine reports.

— Canada is seeing more autos from China after Tesla started shipping electric vehicles, Bloomberg reports.

— Indonesian furniture industry turns elsewhere amid EU deforestation rule, per Nikkei Asia.

On The Calendar

10 a.m.: International Trade Administration holds a meeting of the United States Investment Advisory Council to discuss work done within the three subcommittees: Economic Competitiveness, Workforce and SelectUSA 2.0.

10:30 a.m.: The Henry L. Stimson Center holds a virtual discussion on the "Fight Against Economic Coercion: Opportunities and Challenges for the U.S.-Japan Alliance."

THAT’S ALL FOR MORNING TRADE! See you again soon! In the meantime, drop the team a line: dpalmer@politico.com, gbade@politico.com and ahawkins@politico.com. Follow us @POLITICOPro and @Morning_Trade.

 

A message from the National Foreign Trade Council (NFTC):

With the last U.S.-EU TTC meeting approaching, time is running out for the Biden Administration to stand up for American businesses. The upcoming meetings in Europe present a unique platform for senior U.S. officials to strengthen the transatlantic relationship while strongly opposing discriminatory policies that undermine our shared values, competitiveness and national security.

Decades of bipartisan U.S. trade leadership have enabled American innovators and small businesses, across nearly every sector of the economy, to succeed in the digitally-enabled global marketplace. It’s important for the Biden Administration to signal that it has American innovators’ backs and work with Europe to reject protectionist policies that favor European companies and global competitors in countries like China at the expense of U.S. businesses.

Discover why more aggressive U.S. international economic leadership is critical to national security and the global success of millions of American – and European – small businesses HERE.

 
 

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Ari Hawkins @_AriHawkins

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Gavin Bade @GavinBade

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