Crickets season

Mar 04, 2024

View in browser

By Nick Taylor-Vaisey

Presented by

Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Nick | Follow Politico Canada

Welcome to Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it.

In today’s edition:

→ Your first major dose of budget-date speculation.

→ Voters in Durham, Ont., elect a new MP.

→ The House ethics committee meets to talk about the Winnipeg lab docs scandal.

DRIVING THE DAY

BUDGET SEASON — We're entering the wacky portion of the year's House calendar. Brace for a new round of budget-date speculation.

Hill offices are mostly crickets for four of the next five weeks, as anybody who works in the fishbowl has already noticed. Cabinet ministers will hit the road to hock policies and programs, MPs will spend a lot of time with their constituents, and staffers back in Ottawa might have something resembling work-life balance while the bosses are away.

Blame that sound of silence on schoolkids and a religious holiday.

— Helpful reading: Standing Order 28(2)(a), Ottawa-Carleton District School Board calendar, Western Québec School Board calendars

— Anatomy of a calendar: Many breaks are set out in the House standing orders: Thanksgiving, Remembrance Day, the Christmas holidays, Easter, and the summer recess. There are also typically breaks at the midway points of long fall, winter and spring stretches.

The rest of the constituency weeks are subject to agreement among the parties. SEAN MURPHY, a senior consultant at Earnscliffe who worked in the Tory whip's office for nearly a decade, says the final calendar is "usually" decided by consensus.

The House administration will circulate options. "The parties take the proposed schedules back and consider which one best suits their caucus," Murphy says.

One of the major considerations? March Break for school-aged kids. Gatineau school boards are emptying out this week. Ottawa school boards picked the next one. Multiply that by every board in Canada where an MP's kid is enrolled.

Add in a two-week Easter break and, voila, the wacky weeks that lie ahead.

— Oh yeah, that pesky budget: Few speculators are betting Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND will unveil her federal budget during the lone March sitting week. Stranger things have happened.

But if not, that leaves two weeks in April, one of which is already a scheduling nightmare for journos, lobbyists, party activists and elected people.

Feast your eyes on what's already on the docket for that first window:

→ April 10: A Bank of Canada interest rate announcement, which will surely weigh on minds in Freeland's office.

→ April 10-12: The Broadbent Institute's Progress Summit, for the town's lefties.

→ April 10-12: The Canada Strong and Free Networking Conference, for the grassroots right.

→ April 11: The Public Policy Forum's Canada Growth Summit in Toronto, for wonks.

→ April 13: The Parliamentary Press Gallery Dinner, end-of-week stress relief for the above.

— The second window, April 15-19: The minister could spare the Hill some insanity by picking this week.

A convenient five-day break for a cross-country road show runs April 22-26. That would leave the entire May/June gauntlet to power through post-budget confidence votes.

— Alternatively: The big day could fall on April 8 or 9, before conferencepalooza gets underway. The embrace-the-chaos date would be Thursday, April 11.

A message from Google:

At Google, we know it can be tough keeping your family safe online. So we help make it easier by automatically turning on safety settings for kids and teens. With protections like filtering explicit content with SafeSearch, blocking age-restricted videos on YouTube, and more. To find online safety features for kids and teens, visit:g.co/families

For your radar

DONOR CIRCUIT — Cabinet ministers are pairing up for three fundraisers this week and two more in the next. None are in rock-solid Liberal ridings, a rarer designation as the next election ticks closer.

→ Tonight, Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE and Trade Minister MARY NG are raising dough for Windsor-Tecumseh MP IREK KUSMIERCZYK at the DoubleTree by Hilton Windsor Hotel & Suites.

338Canada projection: CPC leaning gain

→ This evening in Edmonton Centre, Defense Minister BILL BLAIR and Employment Minister RANDY BOISSONNAULT are teaming up for a "jazzy night" at the Art Gallery of Alberta to beef up Boissonnault's riding warchest.

338Canada projection: CPC likely gain

→ Tomorrow in Toronto's York Centre riding, Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND and Mental Health Minister YA'ARA SAKS are hosting a "victory reception" at a Japanese restaurant in swanky Yorkville.

338Canada projection: CPC likely gain

→ On March 10, CARLA QUALTROUGH welcomes ANITA ANAND to B.C.'s lower mainland for a fundraiser at Tandoori Flame Surrey-Delta. Anand is Treasury Board president. Qualtrough is sport minister. Both served stints as procurement minister.

338Canada projection: CPC leaning gain

→ On March 14, Housing Minister SEAN FRASER will join BRYAN MAY, the MP for Cambridge, Ont., at Chawla's Indian Bistro. This is Fraser's second fundraiser of the year, following a February stop in Calgary at a lawyer-heavy Petroleum Club to raise funds for his own riding warchest (among the donors: wealthy developer RIAZ MAMDANI).

338Canada projection: CPC safe gain

POILIEVRE'S PLANS — The Conservative leader is also topping up his party's bank account at a pair of Wednesday fundraisers. He'll head up an afternoon event at the Interior Finishing Systems Training Centre for tradespeople in Woodbridge, Ont., before hosting an evening reception at a restaurant in Freeland's riding.

Where the leaders are

— The Prospectors & Developers Association of Canada's annual convention in Toronto is in full swing. The massive gathering is a magnet for industry insiders and Cabmins.

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in the National Capital Region with no public events scheduled.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND will "meet with business leaders from the critical minerals and supply chain sectors" at the PDAC gathering.

— NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH is on Vancouver Island with North Island-Powell River MP RACHEL BLANEY. They'll visit Tla’amin First Nation and speak with Powell River residents at Willingdon Beach.

DULY NOTED

10 a.m. Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT is in Montreal for a funding announcement on species at risk.

10 a.m. Health Minister MARK HOLLAND is in Mississauga, Ont., to make an announcement related to "the well-being and retention of nurses across Canada."

11:30 a.m. (12:30 p.m. AT) Housing Minister SEAN FRASER and Nova Scotia Premier TIM HOUSTON make an infrastructure announcement in New Glasgow.

11:40 a.m. Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE and Trade Minister MARY NG will visit the Canadian and American pavilions at PDAC's convention.

12:05 p.m. Energy Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON delivers a keynote at PDAC, and then joins a panel on "the investment destination for sustainable critical mineral value chains."

12:20 p.m. (10:20 a.m. MT) Defense Minister BILL BLAIR and Employment Minister RANDY BOISSONNAULT will announce "upgrades" to the Edmonton military base. They'll also meet members of the Ukrainian-Canadian community, as well as Armed Forces members who were deployed on a mission to train Ukrainian soldiers.

ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR

BY-ELECTION DAY — Prepare for overanalysis of several thousand votes cast today in a suburban and rural Ontario riding now up for grabs.

Conservatives who crave even a small victory over Trudeau, and Liberals who insist they sense momentum, have parachuted into the riding in recent weeks.

Durham has been vacant since ERIN O'TOOLE left politics last year. JAMIL JIVANI is the favorite in today’s by-election to carry on the party's long winning streak in the riding. 338Canada projects a solid Conservative majority.

By-elections typically turn out a small fraction of voters, which can produce results out of step with tradition or national trends. If tonight's result is anywhere near close, pundits will debate the greater meaning for days (even if there is no greater meaning).

Here's the roster of recent visitors.

— CPC drop-ins: Jivani's potential future caucus colleagues have knocked on doors: DEAN ALLISON, RYAN WILLIAMS, PHIL LAWRENCE, JOHN BRASSARD, COLIN CARRIE, DAN MUYS, JASRAJ SINGH HALLAN, ERIC DUNCAN, MICHAEL BARRETT, SHUV MAJUMDAR, ANDREW SCHEER and TOM KMIEC.

Jivani has also drawn help from a mix of swing-riding candidates that could gain profile in a future Tory caucus: GREG KUNG in Kanata-Carleton, BARBARA BAL in Nepean, ROMAN BABER in York Centre, and AARON GUNN in North Island-Powell River, British Columbia.

JENNI BYRNE, the senior Conservative operative who was glued to by-elections in the Harper years, tweeted from the riding — and has no doubt spent plenty of time in the area.

— The red team: Liberals appear to believe the riding is competitive for ROBERT ROCK, a local municipal councilor running for Team Trudeau. (Rock once sought the Tory nomination.) Liberals have deployed plenty of high-profile resources, including at least a dozen Cabinet ministers.

→ Cabmins: HARJIT SAJJAN, MARK HOLLAND, SEAMUS O'REGAN, JONATHAN WILKINSON, AHMED HUSSEN, RECHIE VALDEZ, GARY ANANDASANGAREE, ANITA ANAND, FILOMENA TASSI, YA'ARA SAKS, MARY NG and MARC MILLER.

JUSTIN TRUDEAU also stopped by at a rally that ended up creating mayhem for the Bowmanville homebrew shop that hosted the party.

→ MPs: YVAN BAKER, PETER FONSECA, LLOYD LONGFIELD, JEAN YIP, ARIF VIRANI, RUBY SAHOTA, MANINDER SIDHU, IREK KUSMIERCZYK, KAMAL KHERA, RYAN TURNBULL, JAMES MALONEY, JULIE DABRUSIN, JENNIFER O'CONNELL, PAUL CHIANG, MAJID JOWHARI, LEAH TAYLOR ROY, MONA FORTIER, MARK GERRETSEN, SHAFQAT ALI, CHARLES SOUSA and SONIA SIDHU.

— The moment of truth: Polls close at 8:30 p.m. Elections Canada will post results in real time. Hill people will click refresh obsessively until the result is clear.

MEDIA ROOM

— On CTV's "Question Period", the co-founders of a company that helps people navigate workplace misconduct talked through a complex web of government contracting red flags at the Canada Border Services Agency.

— The Globe's MARIEKE WALSH is talking pharmacare on this morning's The Decibel pod.

— ABBAS RANA at the Hill Times breaks down the potential impact of federal riding redistribution on potential Conservative nomination races.

— The federal government says it has beefed up security at the National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg. Not everybody is convinced, reports CBC's KAREN PAULS.

— A provocative question from CBC News' TERENCE MCKENNA: Is it time for Russia and Ukraine to negotiate?

— PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER's weekend polling update at 338Canada could make some Liberal Cabinet ministers in rural Quebec nervous.

— The Toronto Star's KENYON WALLACE embedded himself at a North York hospital that is "battling the ER crisis in Ontario — and winning."

— ICYMI: APTN News unpacked BRIAN MULRONEY's complex legacy through the eyes of Indigenous people.

— From POLITICO Magazine: Biden can still win — if he runs like Harry Truman

PROZONE

For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter: BRIAN MULRONEY’s cross-border legacy.

In other news for Pro readers:

— Israel under pressure to justify its use of AI in Gaza.

— WTO harvests meager results from week-long meeting.

— Clean energy slowed carbon emissions growth in 2023, IEA says.

— Why most red states will soon have climate plans.

— Top 5 takeaways from POLITICO Pro's briefing on Biden's gas export pause.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to LAURA RINALDI of Impact Public Affairs.

Greetings also to former MPs SVEND ROBINSON and PATRICK BOYER, as well as Ontario MPP TED HSU and former Northwest Territories Premier NELLIE COURNOYEA. Actress and comedian CATHERINE O'HARA celebrates a milestone (70!).

Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way.

Spotted: A pro-Palestinian protest that forced the abrupt cancelation of a Saturday reception at the Art Gallery of Ontario, featuring headliners JUSTIN TRUDEAU and Italian PM GIORGIA MELONI.

A new biography of PIERRE POILIEVRE, penned by ANDREW LAWTON and published by Sutherland House, with a release date of May 28. (PAUL WELLS' book on Trudeau, with the same publisher, is out May 7.)

Health-care consultant WALTER ROBINSON, coining a new phrase for the latest Liberal-NDP legislative proposal: pharmashamscam.

Movers and shakers: PIERRE POILIEVRE is hiring a new press secretary. Applications close in four days … EMILE SCHEFFEL is now managing director of the Canadian Jewish Political Affairs Committee.

ON THE HILL

→ Find House committees here.

→ Keep track of Senate committees here.

Noon. The House ethics committee meets to undertake a study of documents in relation to the National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg tabled in the House.

We're tracking every major political event of 2024 on a mega-calendar. Send us events and download the calendar yourself for Google and other clients .

A message from Google:

TRIVIA

TRIVIA CUP — We're holding our journalists round of the First Annual POLITICO Canada Trivia Cup tomorrow night at 7:30 p.m. Want to join the likes of the Toronto Star, CBC, CTV, Bloomberg, The Hill Times, CPAC, and assorted cross-bureau supergroups? We still have room for a few tables. Teams max out at six members. Drop us a line for details.

Friday’s answer: JAMES MALONEY championed the push for the federal government to recognize Canadians of Irish descent.

Props to MPs DAN ALBAS and DAVE EPP. Other readers with the correct response: ANTHONY VALENTI, JEFFREY VALOIS, KEN FAULKNER, GERMAINE MALABRE, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, WAYNE EASTER, BOB GORDON, ALEX STEINHOUSE, MATT DELISLE, PATRICK DION, DAVE EPP, KATIE FEENAN and MARCEL MARCOTTE.

Today’s question: Which former PM once celebrated a wedding on this day in history?

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

Follow us on Twitter