How Trump could exit Paris — and make it stick

Your guide to the political forces shaping the energy transformation

Mar 12, 2024 View in browser   By Arianna Skibell President Donald Trump gestures while speaking in 2017 about the U.S. role in the Paris climate change accord. | Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP Prominent conservatives have devised a road map to cement climate policy rollbacks under a future President Donald Trump. Chief among their targets: exiting the Paris climate agreement for good, write Robin Bravender and Sara Schonhardt. The idea, included in a 920-page policy report, is to pull the United States out of the 1992 treaty that underpins the Paris deal, known as the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change. That would be a serious step beyond what Trump did during his first term, when he exited the Paris Agreement but continued sending delegations to the annual U.N. climate talks. While a president can unilaterally reenter the Paris deal (as President Joe Biden did), rejoining the underlying convention could require a two-thirds majority vote in the Senate — a tall order. The Paris accord, struck at the 2015 U.N. climate talks, is a voluntary agreement for countries to set targets to curb their planet-warming pollution and for wealthier nations to lead in financing those efforts. Many Republicans argue the deal hurts U.S. economic interests and demands less of other large polluters, such as China. The broader climate framework had bipartisan support 32 years ago — a supermajority of the Democratic-controlled Senate ratified it, and Republican President George H.W. Bush signed it. But leaving it “would certainly be on the table” in a second Trump administration, said Mandy Gunasekara, who served as chief of staff in Trump’s Environmental Protection Agency. “Let’s create a better agreement that’s focused more on tangible solutions and expanding the reach of innovative technology, instead of the current Paris climate accord and the UNFCCC,” she told Robin and Sara. But critics say leaving the treaty could hurt U.S. standing with global partners and lead to a host of other problems beyond exacerbating climate change. For example, it could stem the funding the U.S. traditionally provides to many of the convention’s programs, such as helping developing countries adapt to climate change. It's also unclear how the U.S. could negotiate a "better agreement," in place of a framework that involves every nation on Earth. Still, some experts say the Trump administration might cause more problems for global climate goals if it remained in the treaty where it could block action. Climate researcher Luke Kemp argued in 2017 that it might be better for the U.S. to leave. “The risk, of course, is that if the world’s superpower withdraws from our most basic fundamental climate negotiations and treaty, it could send a very strong message to the rest of the world that climate action is no longer on the table, that we’re essentially abandoning ship,” Kemp told Robin and Sara.   It's Tuesday — thank you for tuning in to POLITICO's Power Switch. I'm your host, Arianna Skibell. Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to askibell@eenews.net. And folks, let's keep it classy. Listen to today’s POLITICO Energy podcast Today in POLITICO Energy’s podcast: Catherine Morehouse breaks down new legislation and rules from the Biden administration aiming to reinvigorate the nuclear power industry.   On the ground in Albany. Get critical policy news and analysis inside New York State. Track how power brokers are driving change across legislation and budget and impacting lobbying efforts. Learn more.     More oil, anyone? Pumping jacks at the Chevron section of the Kern River Oil Field are seen near Bakersfield, California. | Mark Ralsotn/AFP via Getty Images Hear that? It's the sound of the United States smashing oil production records — U.S. companies produced more crude oil than any nation at any time in history last year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration announced Monday. The industry pumped an average of 12.9 million barrels per day in 2023, knocking the previous 2019 record out of the water and marking the sixth straight year the U.S. dominated global output. The EIA said no other country has the capacity to exceed the new record. As noted by my Morning Energy colleagues today, U.S. oil production has reached new heights under the Biden administration — despite complaints from Republicans that the president is hamstringing the industry and despite promises from the administration to curb the climate pollutant. Power Centers POLITICO illustration/Photos by iStock No water, no growth? In the West, the decadeslong population and housing boom is confronting a grim reality: the region is running out of water, writes Jennifer Yachnin. “The era of limits is upon us,” said Kathy Jacobs, who heads the University of Arizona's climate center. A review for environmental reviews The Seven County Infrastructure Coalition, an independent arm of Utah’s state government, is asking the Supreme Court to review the scope of federal power to consider environmental effects in rulemaking, including downstream or indirect greenhouse gas emissions, writes Niina H. Farah. The coalition is challenging an appeals court decision ordering a redo of an environmental analysis for a planned 88-mile rail line that would carry waxy crude oil from the Uinta Basin to a broader railway network. Net zero meets Britain's NIMBYs If hammering out global climate deals is difficult, it has nothing on trying to develop clean energy projects across the U.K.'s grasslands, writes Nicholas Earl. Net zero may have been written into law in Westminster, but the front line of the battle to go green is in rural communities, where residents insist: Not In My Back Yard. In Other News Electric future: How EV charger hacking threatens personal data and the power grid. Mining: The U.S., Canada and Indigenous groups have announced a proposal to address cross-border mining pollution.   DON’T MISS POLITICO’S HEALTH CARE SUMMIT: The stakes are high as America's health care community strives to meet the evolving needs of patients and practitioners, adopt new technologies and navigate skeptical public attitudes toward science. Join POLITICO’s annual Health Care Summit on March 13 where we will discuss the future of medicine, including the latest in health tech, new drugs and brain treatments, diagnostics, health equity, workforce strains and more. REGISTER HERE.     Subscriber Zone A showcase of some of our best subscriber content. A part of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System runs through boreal forest past Alaska Range mountains. | Mario Tama/Getty Images Energy companies are reconsidering plans to drill for oil in Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve as the Biden administration weighs new protections for the 23-million-acre chunk of federally managed land. Florida could become the second state to block local heat protections for outdoor workers under legislation that’s sitting on the desk of Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said her staff is working to make sure that the billions of dollars in Biden's signature climate law are deployed quickly to insulate it from future attacks. That's it for today, folks! Thanks for reading.   Follow us on Twitter Arianna Skibell @ariannaskibell   Follow us

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