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Mar 25, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO California Playbook PM

By Sarah Grace Taylor

GOING DOWN IN SF TOMORROW: WHAT HAPPENED WITH PROP 1? Join us in San Francisco tomorrow evening for a post-mortem analysis on the razor-thin outcome of Proposition 1, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s signature mental-health initiative. POLITICO California’s health care reporter Rachel Bluth will host an evening of hot takes and libations at Manny’s in the Mission, 3092 16th St. Register here; the event starts at 6 p.m. There are just a few tickets left!

LEARNING ON THE JOB: There’s little room for beginners’ missteps for the first-year leaders of the state Assembly and Senate who have to solve a $38 billion deficit.

New budget chairs in both houses have never led state fiscal negotiations, let alone navigated a steep shortfall. Now they’ve got three months to come up with a solution to a looming budget crisis.

“This is going to be a new experience for almost everybody, including me,” said Jesse Gabriel, 42, the recently appointed Assembly Budget Committee chair told POLITICO’s Blake Jones for a deep dive into the budget.

California hasn't faced a shortfall this large since the Great Recession. Since then, there’s been a ton of turnover in the Legislature.

Both Budget and Appropriations committees changed hands recently when Senate Pro Tem Mike McGuire, 44, and Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas, 44 put close allies in charge of the purse strings.

Now Gabriel leads the budget talks in the Assembly and Sen. Scott Wiener — who replaced Sen. Nancy Skinner, one of few current legislators who was around for the 2008 financial crisis — is his counterpart in the Senate.

California State Sen. Scott Wiener speaks.

Sen. Scott Wiener | Eric Risberg/AP

Given that inexperience, lawmakers will be looking to seasoned aides who have been in the Capitol since the Recession for lessons in what one veteran legislator called “creative budgeting.”

The rookie Democratic leaders need to not only figure out the math, but also have to unify their caucuses behind deep spending cuts. No more Oprah Winfrey-style giveaways that write their own campaign ads.

Gov. Gavin Newsom is pushing them to stay on schedule.

“We’re hoping to move, and we made that clear in January,” Newsom told reporters recently, “and we’ve only reinforced that since.”

Legislative leaders have agreed with the governor to trim the deficit by at least $12 billion before final negotiations. But they haven’t spelled out how.

The Assembly has yet to share a specific proposal, but the Senate is pushing a detailed package of $17 billion in spending cuts, delays and borrowing with Newsom’s approval.

“We need to move decisively to shrink this shortfall early,” McGuire, who took over the chamber just last month, said in an interview. “But we all know tough decisions lie ahead.”

IT’S MONDAY AFTERNOON. This is California Playbook PM, a POLITICO newsletter that serves as an afternoon temperature check on California politics and a look at what our policy reporters are watching. Got tips or suggestions? Shoot an email to sgtaylor@politico.com or send a shout on X. DMs are open.

 

SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, the newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world, including WEF in Davos, Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to UNGA in NYC and many more. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW.

 
 
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY

BORDERING ON AFFORDABLE: Community college students who commute from Northern Mexico to Southern California campuses could begin paying cheaper, in-state tuition starting this summer.

The California Community Colleges board today authorized Chancellor Sonya Christian to negotiate an agreement with Baja California that would offer resident tuition at nine California colleges to students whose permanent residence is in Mexico.

The students would have to live within 45 miles of the border and only 150 students could receive the discount at each campus. Some who are eligible are from Mexico, but others are Americans who’ve moved to Tijuana in search of affordable housing, Southwestern College President Mark Sanchez told board members.

The plans serve to not only make postsecondary education more affordable for students but to blunt the impact of declining enrollment at the colleges — several of which have lost per-student funding from the state since the pandemic.

California is following the lead of fellow border states including Texas, New Mexico and Arizona that already discount tuition for Mexican citizens or residents. Newsom signed legislation in October authorizing the plans in California. — Blake Jones

ON THE BEATS

Robert Rivas smiles as he talks with reporters.

Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas | Rich Pedroncelli/AP

BARGAINING BOUNDARIES: Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas supported letting legislative staff unionize. Now he wants to set some ground rules.

Rivas is following up on last year’s landmark law with a bill clarifying how, exactly, Sacramento’s rank-and-file workers would collectively bargain starting in 2026. Rivas vocally supported the first bill, and he’ll have a front row seat for its implementation given that much of a speaker’s job entails managing the house and its staffers.

"As leader of the Assembly, the Speaker wants to ensure the law is administered in a fair and consistent manner, and looks forward to its successful implementation," Rivas press secretary Cynthia Moreno said in a statement.

That Rivas is authoring the bill gives it a strong chance of passing. AB2798 sets out how organizing could be contested in court and clarifies that the “design, construction, and location of legislative facilities” is off the table — a potentially relevant section as construction in the Capitol has forced staffers to adjust to life in the Swing Space and its notoriously balky elevators. — Jeremy B. White

 

In celebration of Earth Month, the USC Wrigley Institute for Environment and Sustainability and the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future, in collaboration with POLITICO, host “Climate Forward 2024: Climate at the Crossroads” on April 4, 2024 at USC. Top experts from politics, government, media, and academia will discuss climate change issues with a focus on finding practical policy and business solutions as well identifying ways to remove political obstacles to implementing those changes. Register to attend in person or virtually.

 
 

SUBTWEET: Democratic Assemblymembers Tina McKinnor and Mike Gipson got into a social media squabble this weekend over a bill to crackdown on retail theft.

Last week, Gipson joined primary author Assemblymember Wendy Carrillo at a press conference to tout AB1990 — or the STOP Act — which would allow police to make shoplifting arrests based on probable cause without having to witness the theft.

McKinnor took to X — formerly Twitter — to discourage the passage of the bill in a repost of Gipson’s pictures from the event.

“Bad for black and brown folks,” McKinnor wrote in the repost.

Gipson, in an apparent indirect response to McKinnor, posted a three-part thread doubling down on his support of the bill.

“As a co-author, I do not apologize for being brave enough (while others are not) to take a stand for those I represent — to uphold my commitment to make sure their livelihood and safety is top priority. I would simply ask my colleague — What do you offer besides throwing rocks,” Gipson wrote.

NARROW VICTORY: Democratic Assemblyman Kevin McCarty appears to have finally clinched a spot in the Sacramento mayoral runoff.

McCarty maintained a narrow lead — fewer than 300 votes — over third place candidate Dr. Richard Pan for over a week, but results remained too close to count Pan out until Friday’s semi-final vote drop, after which Pan conceded.

Final results are expected to drop Tuesday. McCarty and progressive frontrunner Dr. Flojuane Cofer are poised to face off in November’s runoff election to replace outbound Mayor Darrell Steinberg.

WHAT WE'RE READING TODAY

BAD BOY FOR LIFE: Officials raided the L.A. and Miami homes of rapper Sean “Diddy” Combs today, four months after ex-girlfriend and singer Cassie accused Combs of sex trafficking. (Rolling Stone)

X-ED OUT: A federal judge dismissed a lawsuit brought by X Corp. against a nonprofit that has tracked an uptick in hate speech since the site was purchased by Elon Musk. (Associated Press)

SLIDE TO THE LEFT: Progressive candidates made big strides in Los Angeles during the March primary, creating tension for Democrats in runoff elections. (Los Angeles Times)

 

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