The under-the-radar House races to watch on Super Tuesday

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Mar 04, 2024 View in browser   By Madison Fernandez and Lawrence Ukenye Presented by TOP LINE Over a dozen states are holding Super Tuesday contests for races up and down the ballot tomorrow. But some of the most interesting races might not be on your radar. Sure, there’s the presidential election, where President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are expected to cement their dominant leads in their respective primaries. And there’s the high-dollar California Senate race, along with a handful of primaries in the Golden State that will narrow down the fields in battleground House races. There are also the primaries for North Carolina governor, which will set the stage for a likely matchup between Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein and Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson as Democrats try to hang on to the open seat. Over a dozen states are holding Super Tuesday contests for races up and down the ballot. | Samuel Corum/Getty Images And yet there are plenty of other races happening tomorrow, some of which could effectively determine the newest members of Congress. Here are five races that you might not have had your eye on — but you should: AL-02 — Thanks to redistricting, a crowded Democratic primary in deep-red Alabama has become a race to watch. Alabama’s congressional map was redrawn last fall after federal judges ruled that lines drawn by the GOP-dominated state legislature likely violated the Voting Rights Act by weakening the power of Black voters, who make up about one-quarter of the state’s population. The newly drawn 2nd District has a Black voting age population of just under 49 percent. Eleven candidates are facing off in the primary, five of whom currently serve in the state legislature. Shomari Figures, a former deputy chief of staff to Attorney General Merrick Garland, has caught the attention of Protect Progress, a pro-crypto super PAC that has spent more than $1.7 million in support of him. With the crowded primary field, it’s unclear if anyone can clear the more than 50 percent hurdle to avoid an April runoff. Despite Democrats’ strong position to pick up this seat in November, Republicans aren’t ceding it entirely: Former state Sen. Dick Brewbaker and attorney Caroleene Dobson each have loaned their campaign hundreds of thousands of dollars. CA-16 — Although this deep-blue Silicon Valley seat won’t play into control of the House, millions of dollars are flowing in. Nine Democrats are on the ballot to succeed retiring Rep. Anna Eshoo , who has endorsed Santa Clara County Supervisor Joe Simitian as her successor. But he faces stiff competition from high-dollar candidates, including tech executive Peter Dixon, former San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo and state Assemblymember Evan Low. Because of California’s top-two primary system, it’s possible that two Democrats will move on to the general election — setting the stage for another expensive battle. NC-01 — After an aggressive gerrymander from the GOP-controlled state legislature last year, first-term Democratic Rep. Don Davis’ district is the only one still competitive come November. That makes Republicans’ pick here arguably the most important one in the state. There’s much hand-wringing from national Republicans that Sandy Smith will be the GOP nominee. Smith is a repeat candidate who lost to Davis by around 5 points last year, has faced allegations of domestic abuse — which she has denied — and continues to tout the false claim that Trump won the 2020 election. Republicans are concerned that those vulnerabilities in a general election will lead to defeat come November. So they’re banking on Laurie Buckhout, a political newcomer and Army veteran. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the main House GOP super PAC, has spent six figures to elevate her over Smith, who benefits from name recognition in the district from her previous bids. NC-06 — This Republican primary has it all: a former member of Congress looking for a comeback, repeat candidates and an unexpected Trump endorsement. The race for this newly drawn, safe Republican seat features former Rep. Mark Walker; Christian Castelli, the GOP’s nominee for the seat in the midterms when it was a competitive battleground; and Bo Hines, who lost in the general election for the state’s 13th Congressional District two years ago. But only Addison McDowell, a former lobbyist and first-time candidate, snagged a Trump endorsement — before he even announced his bid. Despite Trump having his candidate of choice, the others have been racing to prove their loyalty to the former president. Hines — who Trump endorsed in his 2022 bid — frequently invokes him, saying he’ll be “Trump’s number one ally in Congress.” Walker has done the same. He has also faced attacks from the conservative anti-tax Club for Growth, which is backing Hines, and sought to turn the tables by calling the group “anti-Trump.” (Trump offered Walker an endorsement for a House seat in 2022 to get him out of the Senate primary against then-Rep. Ted Budd, but Walker stayed in.) If no candidate earns more than 30 percent of the vote, the second-place candidate could request a runoff election that would be held in May. TX-23 — Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales is trying fending off a group of primary challengers after the Texas GOP censured him for failing to vote with the party against bills that strengthened gun safety and codified same-sex marriage. Republicans Victor Avila, a former ICE agent; Julie Clark, former Medina County GOP chair; and Brandon Herrera, a social media influencer, have all attempted to portray Gonzales as out-of-step with the party. Herrera has targeted Gonzales on air, including a spot saying that Gonzales "betrayed" voters by backing the creation of a commission to investigate the Jan. 6 attacks on the U.S. Capitol. But Gonzales has been on air as well, and has received backup from the nonprofit arm of CLF. Happy Monday! What are you watching in tomorrow’s primaries? Reach us at mfernandez@politico.com/@madfernandez616 and lukenye@politico.com/@Lawrence_Ukenye. Days until Super Tuesday: 1 Days until the Mississippi primaries: 8 Days until the Illinois and Ohio primaries: 15 Days until the Pennsylvania primaries: 50 Days until the Republican National Convention: 132 Days until the Democratic National Convention: 168 Days until the 2024 election: 246   A message from Televisa Univision: 43% of Hispanic Democrats and 31% of Hispanic Republicans in Florida are uncertain about their presidential primary choice in 2024. Utilize TU likely voter data to enhance your strategies, tailor messaging to resonate culturally, and establish impactful connections. For pivotal insights into the Miami market and Hispanic voter sentiments in Florida, visit hispanicvote.univision.com   Presidential Big Board WEEKEND IN REVIEW — Former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley scored her first victory of the GOP primary, defeating Trump in D.C.’s primary and earning all 19 delegates. Trump’s campaign was quick to slam Haley, saying she was “crowned Queen of the Swamp by the lobbyists and DC insiders that want to protect the failed status quo.” Haley’s campaign said it was “not surprising that Republicans closest to Washington dysfunction are rejecting” Trump. But Trump had a dominant weekend otherwise. He secured decisive wins in three states, sweeping all 39 delegates at Michigan’s GOP convention (amid the state party chaos), all 32 delegates in Idaho and all 51 delegates in Missouri. North Dakota is holding its GOP caucuses today, where 29 delegates are on the table. HALEY SCORES TWO — Republican Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska endorsed Haley on Friday, our Anthony Adragna reports. Collins also already vowed not to back Trump and voted for Haley in Maine’s presidential primary. TAKING IT BACK? — Haley hinted that she may not support Trump as the party’s nominee, after previously signing a pledge to back the eventual winner in order to participate in the RNC-run debates. “The RNC is now not the same RNC,” she said Sunday on NBC News’ “Meet the Press.” … RELATED: “The big question for Nikki Haley is what to do about Trump after she drops out,” by POLITICO’s Natalie Allison. PUTTING IT BEHIND US — Trump spoke to donors at a Club for Growth retreat on Friday and claims he and the group are “back in love,” our Alex Isenstadt reports. The former president and Club for Growth president David McIntosh have worked to patch up their relationship after the organization challenged his presidential bid by launching a multi-million-dollar ad campaign that attacked him in early primary states. THREE’S A CROWD — “Donors to No Labels are starting to fear that the third-party group missed its window for launching a much-hyped presidential bid and are questioning whether to make future financial commitments to the organization,” POLITICO’s Daniel Lippman and Shia Kapos write. Those fears have “intensified” after former Republican Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) passed on presidential bids. The party’s nominating convention is slotted for April. TRUMP’S GRIP — “Most county chairs did not start out as Trump supporters, but like others in the Republican Party, they eventually got behind him,” Seth Masket writes in his final polling series for POLITICO Magazine. Chairs who formerly supported DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy now “strongly” back Trump. Those who backed Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) “broke slightly more in Haley’s direction,” and most of the (few) supporters of former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie are behind Haley. MONEY TALKS — Haley’s campaign said it raised $12 million in February across all three of her campaign committees.   DON’T MISS POLITICO’S HEALTH CARE SUMMIT: The stakes are high as America's health care community strives to meet the evolving needs of patients and practitioners, adopt new technologies and navigate skeptical public attitudes toward science. Join POLITICO’s annual Health Care Summit on March 13 where we will discuss the future of medicine, including the latest in health tech, new drugs and brain treatments, diagnostics, health equity, workforce strains and more. REGISTER HERE.     Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to POLITICO Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories. CAMPAIGN INTEL SAME OLD MAP — Wisconsin won’t be seeing a new congressional map this year, despite Democrats’ efforts to get new lines before the election. The state Supreme Court declined to take up a Democratic lawsuit challenging the map, keeping the current boundaries — which include two battleground seats — in place for November. ARE YOU SURE? — Republican J.R. Majewski is suspending his campaign for OH-09 after recent mixed messaging on whether his bid would continue, our Ally Mutnick reported. Last week, Ally reported he was weighing whether to drop out after making disparaging comments about the Special Olympics, before he defiantly vowed a day later he would stay in the race. He released another combative statement on social media on Saturday, saying the “Deep State will do whatever it takes to fight against me.” SENATE SCRAMBLE — Democratic New Jersey first lady Tammy Murphy — who was expected to be the front-runner to replace Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez — “faces a potential make-or-break test for her candidacy at a convention in New Jersey’s biggest county after unexpected enthusiasm around rival Rep. Andy Kim’s campaign and a grassroots revolt against the establishment threw her nomination in doubt,” POLITICO’s Matt Friedman and Daniel Han write. “The very fact that there's even a question about the Bergen County Democratic nod reveals the extent of the troubles her campaign has faced since its November launch.” DEEP POCKETS — The American Israel Public Affairs Committee is poised to spend $100 million targeting candidates the organization feels hasn’t supported Israel since its war with Hamas began on Oct. 7. The group is going after progressive House Democrats and United Democracy Project, its super PAC, is eyeing nearly 20 races where it may back candidates. Our Elena Schneider and Melanie Mason have more. PRIMARY MEDDLING — Republicans are getting involved in the North Carolina attorney general Democratic primary. The Republican Attorneys General Association is funding And Justice For All, a group that is boosting Durham County District Attorney Satana Deberry over Rep. Jeff Jackson, The News & Observer’s Avi Bajpai reports. ENDORSEMENT CORNER — Trump formally endorsed Robinson’s bid for North Carolina governor. Trump promised to endorse him last year.   A message from Televisa Univision:   AS SEEN ON TV OH-Sen — Republican Ohio state Sen. Matt Dolan is going after Republican Bernie Moreno, accusing him of previously supporting “amnesty” for undocumented immigrants. … Leadership for Ohio, a super PAC backing Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose, is hitting Moreno for being “wrong on guns.” … Club for Growth Action accuses Dolan of being “out for himself.” UT-Sen — Conservative Values for Utah, a super PAC backing Rep. John Curtis (R-Utah), says “it’s time to put a stop to Bidenomics.” … Former Republican state Rep. Brad Wilson’s spot emphasizes his business experience. IN-Gov — Republican Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch highlights her plan to address the state’s drug overdoses. ND-Gov — Republican Rep. Kelly Armstrong touts his support for Trump. … Republican Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller vows to grow the state’s economy and ramp up energy production. AL-02 — Alabama Families PAC — a “pop-up” super PAC whose donors won’t be disclosed until after the election — calls out Brewbaker, portraying him as a RINO. POLL POSITION PRESIDENTIAL — Biden is losing in hypothetical general election matchups against both Trump and Haley, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll. When up against Trump, Biden earns 43 percent and the former president earns 48 percent. Haley’s margin is larger — she earns 45 percent to his 35 percent (980 registered voters, Feb. 25-28, MoE +/- 3.5 percentage points). CA-Sen — Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Republican Steve Garvey are both ahead of Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) and poised to advance in Tuesday’s primary, per a poll conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Government Studies. Garvey and Schiff are statistically tied, with each having 27 and 25 percent respectively, while Porter trails with 19 percent (Feb. 22-27, 3,304 likely California voters or those who have already voted, MoE +/- 2.0 percentage points). OH-Sen — Moreno has a double-digit lead in the GOP primary, per an internal poll from his own campaign conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates. Moreno has 31 percent of support, followed by LaRose with 21 percent and Dolan with 19 percent (500 likely voters, Feb. 25-26, MoE +/- 4.4 percentage points). AL-01 — Rep. Jerry Carl (R-Ala.) is leading Rep. Barry Moore, according to an Auburn University at Montgomery poll. Carl is ahead with 43 percent, while Moore trails with 35 percent (Feb. 27, 1,909 likely Republican voters, MoE +/- 2.2 percentage points).   Don’t sleep on it. Get breaking New York policy from POLITICO Pro—the platform that never sleeps—and use our Legislative Tracker to see what’s on the Albany agenda. Learn more.     STAFFING UP — Biden’s campaign announced hires on its digital team: Ryan Thompson is chief mobilization officer; Kate Conway is creative director; Cat Stern is director of digital persuasion; and Clarke Humphrey is senior adviser for digital persuasion. CODA: QUOTE OF THE DAY — “When the NYT/[Siena] poll shows me at 12%, you better believe it is flawed. Only 5% even know who I am.” — Longshot Democratic presidential candidate Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips   A message from Televisa Univision: With Latinos representing the second largest and fastest-growing population in the country, totaling over 36 million eligible voters, it's essential to cut through the noise and connect meaningfully. TelevisaUnivision stands as the paramount force in Spanish-language media, offering an extensive multiplatform presence encompassing news, sports, cultural events, TV, radio, and streaming services and ensuring engagement with Latino audiences across diverse interests. As the 2024 elections approach, winning over Latino voters is paramount, and TelevisaUnivision is the key. Utilize our unmatched reach to ensure your message resonates effectively with the influential Hispanic electorate, securing the crucial support necessary for success. In the race for victory, TelevisaUnivision's expansive reach and deep connection with the Latino community are indispensable. To maximize your outreach and engagement strategies, visit hispanicvote.univision.com     Follow us on Twitter Steven Shepard @politico_steve Zach Montellaro @zachmontellaro Ally Mutnick @allymutnick Madison Fernandez @madfernandez616   Follow us

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