1.5 is barely alive

Your guide to the political forces shaping the energy transformation

Apr 24, 2024 View in browser   By Francisco "A.J." Camacho United Nations Development Programme Administrator Achim Steiner speaks to reporters during a 2023 news conference. UNDP's Climate Promise 2025 aims to strengthen pledges from countries to reduce emissions in line with limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. | Mary Altaffer/AP The United Nations is pushing countries to meet the Paris Agreement’s most ambitious target: limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius — the threshold for avoiding the worst effects of climate change. But the likelihood of overshooting that threshold increases every day, Chelsea Harvey writes. Worldwide temperatures have already surged above the 1.5-degree limit for short periods, and emissions projections over the next six years aren’t compatible with the goal. Scientists have become more candid in recent years about the impending risk. A 2022 U.N. report, for example, warned that if countries didn’t do more to reduce emissions, there would be “no credible pathway” to 1.5 degrees. But experts are split on how that should affect public messaging from world leaders. Some researchers say it’s time for leaders to prepare for an overshoot, acknowledging the possibility of exceeding 1.5 degrees while minimizing the severity and duration. Sticking to a 1.5-degree limit may require deploying “negative emissions” technologies — such as carbon removal — that are so far unproven at the massive scale necessary. Policymakers “would need to plan for and to communicate that the world needs to reach net-negative CO2 emissions after reaching net-zero around 2050,” Oliver Geden, a climate policy expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said in an email to Chelsea. But others argue the simpler message is best: Strive for 1.5 degrees, period, because avoiding even a fraction of a degree of warming matters. Meeting the target is also still technically possible — though it would require an unprecedented overhaul of the global economy to cut planet-warming emissions by more than 40 percent by 2030. “You need to do the same things whether you're aiming for 1.5 or for 2 [degrees],” said Laura Pereira, a researcher at the University of the Witwatersrand in South Africa. “It’s just that if you act now and do it rapidly enough, you can do 1.5.” Meanwhile, in Washington So far, climate deals haven’t been able to contain the world’s thirst for fossil fuels, the main drivers of global warming. The United States, the world’s second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases, is producing more crude oil than ever. The Biden administration, however, has set ambitious goals to transition away from fossil fuels and toward renewable energy. It is also partly relying on nascent technologies to hit net-zero emissions by midcentury — including “clean” hydrogen, which is touted as a way to cut climate pollution from energy-intensive industries like steel production But this week, a Department of Energy advisory panel offered what Secretary Jennifer Granholm called a “sobering” analysis of the near-term prospects for the fuel, Christian Robles and Carlos Anchondo write. The National Petroleum Council cautioned that the clean hydrogen industry is not growing fast enough to meet climate goals. Hydrogen is “one of those sectors and technologies that is not on track” to meet net-zero goals, Deputy Energy Secretary David Turk said Tuesday. But that “doesn’t mean we’re not making progress.”   It's Wednesday — thank you for tuning in to POLITICO's Power Switch. I'm your host, Francisco 'A.J.' Camacho. Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to acamacho@eenews.net.   THE GOLD STANDARD OF ENERGY POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries, like energy, equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists. Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other. Our energy reporting team—including Ben Lefebvre, Alex Guillen and Kelsey Tamborrino—is embedded with the market-moving legislative committees and agencies in Washington and across states, delivering unparalleled coverage of energy policy and the energy industry. We bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY.     Listen to today’s POLITICO Energy podcast Today in POLITICO Energy’s podcast: Alex Guillén breaks down the challenges the coal industry is facing ahead of this year's elections. Incoming: EPA power plant rule EPA Administrator Michael Regan will unveil a power sector climate rule at Howard University. | Nathan Howard/AP EPA's final power plant rule may give existing coal facilities more time — and new gas plants less time — to capture their climate pollution, Jean Chemnick writes. The agency is expected to release the final rule Thursday. But four people who participated in briefings Wednesday with EPA officials told Jean that the final rule will set 2032 as the deadline for existing coal plants to start capturing 90 percent of their climate pollution. That's two years longer than in the proposed rule that EPA announced last year. New gas plants will also need to install carbon capture systems by 2032 — rather than by 2035 as originally proposed. EPA will also broaden the number of gas plants that fall under the rule's strictest standards. Once published, the rule may face a diverse coalition of opposition on Capital Hill, Emma Dumain writes. A handful of centrist Democrats are concerned about the impact on jobs and electricity costs, joining Republicans who argue the EPA is overstepping its authority. Progressive climate hawks, meanwhile, are bracing themselves for a rule that they say falls short of its original ambitious aspirations. Power Centers Workers inspect solar panels at a rooftop of a power plant in Fuzhou, in southern China's Fujian province, Feb. 21, 2024. | STR/AFP via Getty Images Solar industry petitions Biden for protection Domestic solar manufacturers filed a petition asking the Biden administration to investigate a surge of Chinese-linked solar parts from Southeast Asia, alleging that the imports are hurting the U.S. industry, Kelsey Tamborrino writes. The petition asks the administration to levy new penalties on the imports. But doing so could complicate President Joe Biden's goal of rapidly expanding the country's solar use, as project developers rely on the stream of cheap Asian imports. Inflation irritations Climate policies like carbon pricing are facing backlash due to the rising costs of living, Jordan Wolman, Marie J. French, and Zi-Ann Lum write. With people paying more for electricity, heating and everyday goods, Democratic state politicians who implemented policies like cap and trade are now facing pressure to roll them back or weaken them. Pumping the brakes EU countries are watering down a plan to more heavily tax fossil fuels, Gabriel Gavin writes. The Council of the EU is proposing a seven-year delay on the tax increase and exemptions for industries like fishing and airlines. Environmentalists argue these loopholes weaken the effectiveness of the plan. In Other News Keeping the lights off: A new report from the nonprofit research group Climate Central estimates U.S. climate-related power outages are up 74 percent over the past decade compared with the preceding 10 years. Green thumb: Cities the world over are searching far and wide for trees that can withstand harsh climates and allow urban green spaces to persist. Subscriber Zone A showcase of some of our best subscriber content. Tesla CEO Elon Musk. | Susan Walsh/AP Tesla told investors it expects its energy storage business to grow faster than its car business this year, amid a drop in profits and car sales. U.S. battery and mineral companies are pressuring Biden to protect the American electric vehicle batteries supply chain from what they claim is stifling Chinese competition. On Wednesday, the Department of the Interior announced plans to hold a dozen offshore wind leasing auctions over the next five years. The announcement comes days after New York said three major offshore wind projects in that state were dead in the water. That's it for today, folks! Thanks for reading.   POLITICO IS BACK AT THE 2024 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: POLITICO will again be your eyes and ears at the 27th Annual Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles from May 5-8 with exclusive, daily, reporting in our Global Playbook newsletter. Suzanne Lynch will be on the ground covering the biggest moments, behind-the-scenes buzz and on-stage insights from global leaders in health, finance, tech, philanthropy and beyond. Get a front-row seat to where the most interesting minds and top global leaders confront the world’s most pressing and complex challenges — subscribe today.       Follow us on Twitter Arianna Skibell @ariannaskibell   Follow us

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