A Michigan Dem tries to chat his way to victory

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Apr 03, 2024 View in browser   By Nicholas Wu With assists from POLITICO's Congress team Curtis Hertel emphasized the importance of "conversations" with voters. | AP THE 'CONVERSATIONS' CANDIDATE A Democrat locked in one of the swingiest House races in Michigan isn’t afraid to appear with the president, even as President Joe Biden faces tough approval numbers in the state. “If the president comes to my district, just like if any president came to my district and invited me, I'll be there. I think that's important,” former Michigan state Sen. Curtis Hertel told Inside Congress Wednesday. “And I want to talk to him about the values and what's important to our district. Obviously I would be happy to.” Hertel is running to succeed Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) in a district that Biden narrowly won in 2020, but with Slotkin’s decision to run for Senate, Republicans see the Lansing-area district as one of their top pickup opportunities this year. Hertel said he is confident he can keep the seat blue, acknowledging voter frustration with both parties but pledging to be “somebody who will listen to them.” Biden has some ground to make up in the Mitten State, with a Wall Street Journal poll out last night showing him trailing Donald Trump by 3 points. He won the state in 2020, rebuilding Democrats’ so-called “blue wall” of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin after Trump won all three in 2016. Hertel indicated he wanted to focus on his own race, declining to give any advice to Biden’s campaign on turning around their poll numbers: “I’ve got to focus on my own race here. I know what's working for us and [it’s] having conversations with voters. … And so I assume it’d work for anybody else.” Although Democrats won’t have an abortion measure on the ballot to boost turnout like it did in 2022, Hertel believed it will still be a potent issue this election cycle. He said voters could recognize the “potential for Republicans to take control of all branches of government and [pass] a national abortion ban.” Cash dash: Hertel is aggressively raising money, raking in over $1.3 million last quarter, according to fundraising numbers shared exclusively with Inside Congress, giving him more than $2 million to spend in the coming months. He’s expecting a matchup with fellow former state Sen. Tom Barrett, a Republican who ran against Slotkin in 2022 in what was one of the nation’s most expensive races that cycle. Barrett had about $650,000 on hand at the beginning of the year. Trump in Michigan: Trump has put Michigan in the spotlight, traveling to the state Tuesday evening for a campaign appearance in Grand Rapids where he focused on immigration and the recent murder of Ruby Garcia, allegedly by an undocumented immigrant. He falsely claimed to have spoken with her family, drawing pushback from them and Democrats. “I think in politics, we get so selfish these days, we forget that these people are people. And I just — I just find that to be wrong,” Hertel said. Asked about Trump’s immigration rhetoric, he knocked both parties for not doing more on the border and criticized Trump for helping scuttle a bipartisan border deal earlier this year. Problems on the left: Biden also faces the challenge of winning back Michiganders who opted to cast a protest vote in the state’s primary over his handling of the war in Gaza. More than 100,000 voters opted to vote “uncommitted” in February. Hertel again emphasized the importance of “conversations” with voters to bring them back into the Biden fold for the general election. “There's a lot of pain,” he said. “I think we need to keep having conversations, and I think that conversation is the only thing that actually will solve any of this.” — Nicholas Wu  GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Wednesday, April 3, where we are waiting for the rain to finally stop.   GROWING IN THE GOLDEN STATE: POLITICO California is growing, reinforcing our role as the indispensable insider source for reporting on politics, policy and power. From the corridors of power in Sacramento and Los Angeles to the players and innovation hubs in Silicon Valley, we're your go-to for navigating the political landscape across the state. Exclusive scoops, essential daily newsletters, unmatched policy reporting and insights — POLITICO California is your key to unlocking Golden State politics. LEARN MORE.     KARI LAKE’S BIG FLORIDA HAUL This just in: A fundraiser happening right now for Arizona Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort has raked in $1 million, according to a person familiar with the event. That haul breaks records for a fundraiser for a non-incumbent candidate held at the palatial club in Palm Beach, Florida. Lake is making a second run at statewide office after losing a 2022 gubernatorial bid, running against Democrat Rep. Ruben Gallego for the open Senate seat currently held by retiring independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. The fundraiser is being attended by Trump, Roger Stone, actress and comedian Roseanne Barr, right-wing activist Laura Loomer and Ohio Senate GOP candidate Bernie Moreno. — Meridith McGraw AIPAC SPENDING ROILS DEM PRIMARY Harry Dunn and other Democrats vying to succeed Rep. John Sarbanes (D-Md.) are pushing back against AIPAC’s boosting of state Sen. Sarah Elfreth in Maryland’s 3rd Congressional District primary race. The AIPAC-affiliated United Democracy Project super PAC is backing Elfreth with hundreds of thousands of dollars in TV airtime. The deep-pocketed group’s entry into the primary has raised eyebrows among Democrats, particularly since Dunn has not made the war in Gaza a major part of his campaign, nor has he called for a cease-fire like other progressives. Dunn's haul: He’s ready to counter the spending, though, with a sizable war chest of his own. Dunn has capitalized on a wave of small-dollar donations, raising $3.6 million over the last quarter, according to his campaign. The limited polling available so far shows a close primary race among Elfreth, Maryland Del. Mike Rogers and Dunn, a former Capitol Police officer who rose to prominence after the Jan. 6 insurrection. The district learns strongly Democratic. AIPAC has stressed that its involvement in the race was not directly related to Dunn, with UDP spokesperson Patrick Dorton telling Jewish insider that Elfreth was a “stronger candidate” on the issues and that there were “some serious anti-Israel candidates in this race, who are not Harry Dunn, and we need to make sure that they don’t make it to Congress.” — Nicholas Wu THE FIRST VP DEBATE While former President Donald Trump debates his VP choice, there’s a parallel discussion happening inside the congressional GOP: Will his VP choice even affect the 2024 election? First thing’s first: There’s broad acknowledgement that Trump’s 2016 pick shored up his standing on the right. Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) recalled that moment this way: “There were a lot of folks in 2016 in my state that were skeptical — they didn’t know him at that point. When he picked [Mike] Pence, they were like: ‘Yes, I’m going to vote for him.’ It changed the enthusiasm dramatically.” But eight years later, everyone knows what Trump is about. That means the VP pick involves a unique calculus for Trump as he considers everyone from Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) to two very different Dakota governors and Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio). “Generally vice president picks make no difference,” said Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah), who chose former Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) as his wingman in 2012. “An Hispanic pick might help [Trump] with Hispanics, an African American, perhaps, with African American voters. I don't think women are going to change their mind about Donald Trump based on his VP pick.” Vance said Trump is likely weighing those factors to some extent, in addition to others: “You've got to be thinking about the political upside, you’ve gotta be thinking about somebody that could serve as president, you’ve got to be thinking about fundraising considerations.” (Indeed, Trump’s campaign is struggling to keep up with Biden’s money machine so far.) Grover Cleveland redux? But there’s a unique aspect to Trump’s potential return to the presidency: Since he lost his 2020 re-election campaign and would be limited to one additional term as president, Republicans are eager for a VP pick that will help them chart the course ahead. Trump’s appeal has proven difficult to replicate down-ballot, so this is probably the best chance the former president has to signal whom he would eventually want to take the GOP’s reins in four years. “I don’t think there’s anybody that can help him get votes. He’s going to get his votes,” said Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.). “Me and a lot of other people are saying, ‘Hey, whoever we get needs to have a great opportunity to learn from you and be the next president.’” — Burgess Everett HUDDLE HOTDISH E-Cargo bikes at the Capitol! We’ve got some questions about “Veal Alla Boehner.” This is one way to run for president. But did the former president love lasagna and hate Mondays, too? This could be an awkward day for Alejandro Mayorkas. Could a top-two become a top-three? QUICK LINKS  Trump Leads Biden in Six of Seven Swing States, WSJ Poll Finds from the Wall Street Journal’s Aaron Zitner Former Dow exec running for swing Michigan seat in Congress from the Detroit News’ Melissa Nann Burke Will Scandals Lead Congress to Finally Address Sports Betting? from NOTUS’ Ben T.N. Mause A study in Senate cowardice from the Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg House conservative calls for delay in replacing appropriations chair from Caitlin   YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics.      TRANSITIONS  Matthew Fery is joining Invariant as a principal, focusing on health care, tax and trade government relations. He previously was chief of staff for Rep. Brian Higgins (D-N.Y.). Aaron-John “AJ” Malicdem is now director of government relations at FGS Global. He previously was senior adviser for Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.). TOMORROW IN CONGRESS The House is out. The Senate is out. THURSDAY AROUND THE HILL Crickets. Trivia TUESDAY’S ANSWER: John Lin was the first person to correctly guess that the FDA has jurisdiction over whether almond milk can be labeled as “milk.” TODAY’S QUESTION, from John: As president, what song did Gerald R. Ford ask bands to play at events instead of "Hail to the Chief"? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@politico.com. GET INSIDE CONGRESS emailed to your phone each evening.   Follow us

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