| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  “The time between political decisions and actual damage to the enemy on the front lines, between the package's approval and our warriors' strengthening, must be as short as possible,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (center) urged in a video Sunday night. | Efrem Lukatsky/AP | With help from Lara Seligman and Erin Banco Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric Ukrainians rejoiced this weekend after the House approved its long-awaited foreign aid package. But Russia is expected to ramp up attacks in the coming days and weeks, and only some of the U.S. assistance has a chance of getting there in time to help. On Sunday, Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said he expects Russian troops to try to capture the eastern town of Chasiv Yar by May 9 — Russia’s Victory Day, the holiday that commemorates the Soviet victory over Nazis in World War II. “The time between political decisions and actual damage to the enemy on the front lines, between the package's approval and our warriors' strengthening, must be as short as possible,” Zelenskyy urged in a video Sunday night. Senators are expected to swiftly approve the House’s bill this week — which resembles the Senate bill passed earlier this year — before President JOE BIDEN signs off. But the clock is ticking: Russia said Sunday that it had taken control of Bohdanivka, a small village less than two miles northeast of Chasiv Yar, and experts believe Russian attacks will intensify before the holiday. Sen. MARK WARNER (D-Va.) told CBS News on Sunday that he hopes “these materials will be in transit by the end of the week.” The White House believes it’ll be able to fast-track some assistance to Ukraine before May 9, but it’s unlikely all U.S. weapons in the package will be delivered by then, a senior administration official told NatSec Daily. “It depends on the capability. Some things are easier to transit and others,” said the official, granted anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. “Some aid, like artillery shells … will be going in, but other things may take some more time.” For instance, ammunition for the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System can be sent relatively quickly because there aren’t huge quantities, while items like 155mm artillery could take longer after they arrive in Ukraine to get to the frontlines. Regardless, the White House doesn’t believe it’s a sure thing that Russia will be able to take Chasiv Yar in the near future. “There's always the worry, though, that lines could break at any moment, and that also could be because of morale issues,” the official said. “We think that this military aid and the message it sends will really help with that.” As the deliveries await final approval, Russia will try to exploit Ukraine’s lack of Western assistance, attacking as many places as possible before help arrives, KATERYNA STEPANENKO, Russia deputy team lead at the Institute for the Study of War think tank, told NatSec Daily. “Russians definitely have learned from last year,” Stepanenko said. “Mobilized personnel have been fighting and have been getting that military experience … As much time as Russia gets, it’s going to use that to its advantage to improve its forces and its positions.” Read: Next Ukraine package to be larger than normal, include armored vehicles by our own LARA SELIGMAN and LEE HUDSON
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Constantly evolving to meet emerging threats. In today’s world, you need to spot the threats before they’re seen.
That’s why Lockheed Martin’s vision of 21st Century Security means pushing the boundaries of defense tech to build a new standard of deterrence and protection. Learn more. | | | | | ISRAEL’S MOVES: Israeli troops conducted a surprise attack on the eastern part of Khan Younis in Gaza today, sending many civilians who had returned to abandoned homes in the city back to southern Gaza. Residents told Reuters’ PETER GRAFF that Israeli forces used tanks to enter the city, Gaza’s second largest. The latest Khan Younis offensive followed through on Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s promise on Sunday: “In the coming days, we will increase the military and diplomatic pressure on Hamas because it’s the only way to release our hostages and achieve our victory,” he said. There are signs that Israel will move on the southern city of Rafah, where some 1.4 million Palestinians are sheltering, sooner rather than later, Israeli and Egyptian officials told The Wall Street Journal’s CARRIE KELLER-LYNN. Israel is preparing to move civilians to Khan Younis and other parts of Gaza where it would set up shelters, Egyptian officials briefed on the Israeli plans told the outlet. UNRWA REPORT: An independent report of UNRWA, the main group that provides aid to Palestinians in Gaza, found that Israel hasn’t provided evidence that a significant number of the organization have ties to extremist organizations, The Washington Post’s CLAIRE PARKER reports. The report does state, however, that UNRWA should undertake more steps to ensure neutrality of staffers and reestablish trust with donors. The review comes after several donor nations, including the United States, suspended aid to the group in January following reports that some of its staffers took part in the Oct. 7 attack on Israel. “In the absence of a political solution between Israel and the Palestinians, UNRWA remains pivotal in providing lifesaving humanitarian aid and essential social services,” reads the report, which could spur countries to resume funding. ATTACKS RESTART: Attacks by Iran-backed militants on U.S. forces appear to have started up again after a two-month pause, two Defense Department officials told our own LARA SELIGMAN. The Pentagon assesses that U.S. forces at a base known as “RLZ” in Syria were targeted in a rocket attack on Sunday, the first such attack since Feb. 4, the officials said. Coalition forces have shot down potentially threatening rockets and drones in Iraq and Syria “three or four times” in the last month, including a reported attack on Al Asad airbase, Iraq, one of the DOD officials told Lara. But in the other cases, DOD is not sure that the U.S. was the target. The news comes hours after Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. PATRICK RYDER confirmed a coalition fighter jet destroyed a truck-mounted rocket launcher “in self defense” on Sunday after reports of a failed attack near RLZ. JLOTS ‘STANDING BY’: Ships carrying material needed to build the planned pier in Gaza are “in theater standing by,” Ryder said, referring to the Mediterranean Sea. DOD is still going through a checklist of things that must be in place — for example, agreements on who will provide security for the project and who will distribute the aid — before construction can begin, Ryder said. A spokesperson for USAID told Lara late Friday that it will partner with the U.N. World Food Program in distributing aid from the pier, but operational conversations continue. A spokesperson for the WFP told Lara that the U.N. had agreed to partner on the pier project as long as humanitarian principles can be ensured and land access is expanded. U.S. TROOPS LEAVING NIGER? While State Department officials told our own ERIN BANCO and other media outlets over the weekend that the U.S. is withdrawing all troops from Niger, Lara writes in that the Pentagon still isn’t confirming that they’ve been told to leave. Ryder confirmed “the beginning of discussions between the U.S. and Niger for the orderly withdrawal of U.S. forces from the country,” but declined to elaborate. There has so far been no change to U.S. troop presence in the country, which is home to a U.S. drone base critical for countering terrorism. In neighboring Chad, Ryder also stressed that the small contingent of U.S. forces in the country have not been asked to leave. He acknowledged that there are discussions ongoing about the Status of Forces Agreement, which dictates how U.S. military personnel can operate in the country, after reports on Friday that Chad’s government sent a letter threatening to end the agreement. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | THE GOLD STANDARD OF DEFENSE POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries, like defense, equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists.
Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other. Our defense reporting team—including Lara Seligman, Joe Gould, Paul McCleary, Connor O’Brien and Lee Hudson—is embedded with the market-moving legislative committees and agencies in Washington and across states, delivering unparalleled coverage of defense policy and the defense industry. We bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY. | | | | | | | | | THE TRUMP NATSEC SWEEPSTAKES: The fight for top positions in a possible second Trump administration is beginning, and our own ALEX WARD and DANIEL LIPPMAN have a good idea at who could fill some top spots. The jockeying at this early stage is mainly for the roles of national security adviser and secretary of State, four people familiar with former President DONALD TRUMP’s thinking and conversations told our colleagues. It’s early days and who’s up now could be down later, especially if Trump perceives individuals fighting too hard for jobs or drawing the spotlight. Among the names are RICHARD GRENELL, a former ambassador to Germany whom Trump has called his “envoy” to the world and is known for fiercely fighting with the media; Sen. BILL HAGERTY (R-Tenn.), a former ambassador to Japan who is comfortable in Trump world and traditional Republican circles; ELBRIDGE COLBY, the former senior Pentagon official pushing American officials to invest more in countering China; and ROBERT O’BRIEN, Trump’s fourth national security adviser and a self-described Reagan Republican.
| | ‘WE’VE OUT-INNOVATED CHINA’: Commerce Secretary GINA RAIMONDO voiced confidence about the U.S. semiconductor industry’s innovations, even as Chinese tech companies unveil major advances in chip technology. In an interview with CBS’ 60 Minutes that aired Sunday, Raimondo stated that a new advanced made-in-China chip that began appearing in Huawei phones last year is “years behind what we have in the United States” and that coordinated export controls on semiconductor manufacturing equipment have served their purpose. “We have the most sophisticated semiconductors in the world. China doesn’t. We’ve out-innovated China,” Raimondo told CBS’ LESLEY STAHL. Raimondo, who has spearheaded much of the administration’s implementation of the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, also observed that export controls imposed against Russia in the wake of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine “have hurt their ability to conduct the war, made it harder. And we are enforcing this every minute of every day, doing everything we can.”
| | | AID TO UKRAINE: It’s clearer now more than ever how core the U.S. aid package has been to Ukraine’s defense against Russia: In 2023, Russia spent $109 billion on its military, compared to Ukraine’s $64.8 billion, according to a Stockholm International Peace Research Institute report released today. Ukraine’s allies and partners nearly made up the difference. Kyiv received at least $35 billion from other countries, which includes $25.4 billion from the United States. Altogether, that brought Ukraine to 91 percent of Russia’s military spending. Read: Ukraine to EU: Don’t let US aid package make you complacent by our own BARBARA MOENS, STUART LAU and JOSHUA POSANER POLAND ‘READY’ FOR NUKES: Polish President ANDRZEJ DUDA said Warsaw and Washington have discussed the possibility of Poland hosting NATO nuclear weapons given increased Russian aggression, our own CLAUDIA CHIAPPA reports. In an interview with Polish outlet Fakt released this morning, Duda, who last week visited the U.S. and met with Trump, said “if our allies decide to deploy nuclear weapons as part of nuclear sharing on our territory as well, in order to strengthen the security of NATO's eastern flank, we are ready for it.” Nuclear sharing, he added, has been a topic of conversation between Poland and the United States “for some time.” Duda’s comments come as Russia has made increasing threats on neighboring countries in Eastern Europe in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine. Moscow has sent nuclear weapons to ally Belarus and has increased military presence in the Kaliningrad exclave, located on the Black Sea between Poland and Lithuania. In response, Kremlin spokesperson DMITRY PESKOV said Russia "will take all the necessary retaliatory steps to guarantee our security," according to state-owned news service RIA Novosti.
| | | | POLITICO IS BACK AT THE 2024 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: POLITICO will again be your eyes and ears at the 27th Annual Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles from May 5-8 with exclusive, daily, reporting in our Global Playbook newsletter. Suzanne Lynch will be on the ground covering the biggest moments, behind-the-scenes buzz and on-stage insights from global leaders in health, finance, tech, philanthropy and beyond. Get a front-row seat to where the most interesting minds and top global leaders confront the world’s most pressing and complex challenges — subscribe today. | | | | | | | | HOUSE CIA PROBE: A bipartisan report from the House Intelligence committee is criticizing the CIA, accusing Langley of consistently mishandling cases of sexual assault and harassment, Daniel reports. The report is the culmination of an investigation launched in January 2023 after several women came forward alleging the agency failed to hold perpetrators within its ranks accountable for sexual misconduct. Langley also stands accused of retaliation against whistleblowers and discouraging reports of misconduct. “Over the course of the investigation, the committee discovered that CIA failed to handle allegations of sexual assault and harassment within its workforce in the professional and uniform manner that such sensitive allegations warrant,” the committee wrote in the executive summary. The agency has defended its handling of sexual misconduct cases, saying in a statement it takes “the issue of sexual assault and harassment extremely seriously.” The agency added it is “absolutely committed to fostering a safe, respectful workplace environment for our employees and have taken significant steps to ensure that, both by bolstering our focus on prevention and strengthening the agency’s handling of these issues when they arise.”
| | | | TSURKOV FAMILY SPARS WITH IRAQ: The family of ELIZABETH TSURKOV, a Princeton doctoral student kidnapped by the Shia militia Kataib Hezbollah, is slamming the Iraqi government’s handling of the case, as they urge Biden to use U.S. leverage with Baghdad. EMMA TSURKOV told NatSec Daily that Biden personally raised her sister’s case with Iraqi Prime Minister MOHAMMED SHIA AL-SUDANI last week. But she wants the administration to go further. “The best thing to do would be to condition the current arms sale on my sister's freedom,” Emma said. “The arms sale is another feather in his cap.” Emma’s comments come as her family has tried to raise the issue with Iraqi officials. But officials refused to meet with Emma and blocked users in the country’s borders from accessing the “bring Elizabeth home” website in response to a protest at a Friday Atlantic Council event with Al-Sudani. The Iraqi government has said it has assembled a task force to investigate the case. The Iraqi embassy in Washington and the State Department did not respond to requests for comment. PAPUA NEW GUINEA FIRES BACK: Papua New Guinea’s prime minister blasted Biden’s comments insinuating that his uncle may have been killed by cannibal tribes in the South Pacific country during the Second World War, Claudia writes. At a campaign event in Pennsylvania last week, Biden mentioned that his uncle, a fighter pilot in the Pacific Theatre, was shot down over Papua New Guinea, adding that his plane was downed in “an area where there were a lot of cannibals in New Guinea at the time.” Biden added that while parts of the plane were eventually recovered, his uncle’s remains were never found. Papuan Prime Minister JAMES MARAPE said in a statement Sunday night that Biden’s remarks “may have been a slip of the tongue; however, my country does not deserve to be labeled as such.” As one of the last places on the planet to be colonized, Papua New Guinea is home to thousands of uncontacted tribes, which has historically contributed to exaggerated legends of cannibalistic peoples living deep in the country’s isolated rainforests.
| | | | — Maj. Gen. AHARON HALIVA, the head of Israel’s military intelligence, resigned today over failures leading up to the Oct. 7 attack on Israel, The Associated Press’ TIA GOLDENBERG reports. — LYDIA LAFAVO has joined the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies Center on Military and Political Power as a research fellow. She previously served in the U.S. Air Force as an intelligence officer.
| | — State Department: 2023 country reports on human rights practices — Sens. JACK REED and ROGER WICKER, The Washington Post: The U.S. — and its troops abroad — are vulnerable to low-flying drones — ALEX CROWTHER, JAHARA MATISEK, and PHILLIPS O’BRIEN, Foreign Affairs: Europe — but not NATO — should send troops to Ukraine
| | | |   | | | | | — Atlantic Council, 10 a.m.: How to build lasting economic resilience in Ukraine — United States Institute of Peace, 10 a.m.: Advancing stability in northern Nigeria — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10:45 a.m.: A conference on "Energy Security and Geopolitics" — Johns Hopkins University Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 1 p.m.: Sudan's path forward: peace, transition, and humanitarian response — Henry L. Stimson Center, 1:30 p.m.: Maritime power for global security — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2:30 p.m.: Navigating the seas with Adm. LISA FRANCHETTI — Atlantic Council. 4 p.m.: Space industry for space strategy — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 6:30 p.m.: Singapore, Southeast Asia and beyond Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who causes morale issues on the natsec team. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is the reason we come to work.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: A bigger perspective to the battlespace.
Seeing the whole picture is Lockheed Martin’s vision of 21st Century Security – innovating defense tech to deliver answers exactly when and where they’re needed most. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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