| | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward, Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and members of his War Cabinet have made no secret they intend to send troops into Rafah to root out the 3,000 or so militants left. | Pool photo by Ronen Zvulun |
With help from John Sakellariadis and Daniel Lippman
Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric Neither American nor Israeli officials have any idea when the Rafah invasion will begin — even though Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU said yesterday “there is a date.” Three senior Biden administration officials and four Israeli civilian and military officials, who would all be privy to the planning, said if Netanyahu has a date in mind, word of it hasn’t reached those who would execute the order. Instead, nearly all said the prime minister made his statement to fend off a political challenge that could tear down his government. “We haven’t been briefed on any date the Israelis are talking about,” said one of the administration officials, like others granted anonymity to detail private discussions. National security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN confirmed that was the case for the U.S.: “If he has a date, he hasn’t shared it with us,” he told reporters this afternoon. Spokespeople for Netanyahu’s office didn’t return multiple requests for comment. Netanyahu and members of his War Cabinet, which includes political rivals, have made no secret they intend to send troops into Rafah — Hamas’ last stronghold — to root out the 3,000 or so militants left. The U.S. shares the goal of defeating Hamas, but there’s a strong disagreement over how to achieve it. It’s led to months of negotiations between senior U.S. and Israeli officials, culminating in an in-person planning meeting expected some time next week. Hardliners in Israel fear all this talk will preclude action, and correspondingly have upped the pressure on Netanyahu to send troops into Rafah. “If the prime minister decides to end the war without a substantial attack on Rafah to defeat Hamas, he will not have a mandate to continue as premier,” National Security Minister ITAMAR BEN-GVIR recently said. He’s not in the War Cabinet but he is a key member of Netanyahu’s far-right coalition. Should Netanyahu lose Ben-Gvir’s support, Netanyahu’s ruling mandate would crumble, leading to elections he would likely lose. “This is all politics,” said one of the Israeli officials. No one expects an imminent invasion of Rafah. There still isn’t a plan to whisk 1.4 million Palestinians in the city to safety, as the U.S. demands, and no troops are lined up ready to push their way in. But on Monday, the Israeli military withdrew ground forces from Khan Younis, noting the 98th Division was leaving Gaza to “recuperate and prepare for future operations.” The main focus, at least for now, is striking a temporary cease-fire between Israel and Hamas and a hostage deal. National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters Monday that Hamas received another proposal over the weekend, noting it could take days to hear the militants’ response. “We have seen Israel take some steps forward in terms of what they’re putting on the table,” Sullivan said today, adding that negotiators have yet to receive an answer from Hamas. Both Israel and Hamas agree that they’re far from reaching a deal, since both sides disagree on key aspects such as which Palestinian prisoners would be released. “To be honest we are not optimistic” about the deal, an official familiar with the negotiations told The Wall Street Journal’s JARED MALSIN, SUMMER SAID and ANAT PELED today.
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Today’s battlespace has no room for miscommunication. At Lockheed Martin, we’re building the strongest communication network possible, no matter where the battle lines are drawn. Defense tech you can count on when every second counts. Learn more. | | | | | ZELENSKYY’S TRUMP TALKS: Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY warned that Russian influence had pierced the American political system and rejected the idea, backed by allies of Donald Trump, that Ukraine could swiftly end the war just by making massive territorial concessions. But Zelenskyy said in an interview today that he had privately urged Trump through intermediaries to travel to Ukraine, and that Trump had expressed interest but had not yet committed to making a trip. Zelenskyy said he was open to hearing Trump’s proposals for the war, while making clear he was highly skeptical. “If the deal is that we just give up our territories, and that’s the idea behind it, then it’s a very primitive idea,” Zelenskyy said in an interview with Axel Springer media outlets (POLITICO is owned by Axel Springer). Zelenskyy continued: “I need very strong arguments. I don't need a fantastic idea, I need a real idea, because people's lives are at stake.” Scroll down to Election 2024 for more on Trump-Ukraine. AUSTIN’S ANALYSIS ON GENOCIDE: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN told lawmakers that he has seen no evidence that Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians in Gaza, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN reports. “We don’t have any evidence of genocide being [committed]” by Israel in Gaza, Austin told the Senate Armed Services Committee during a budget hearing, where his testimony was interrupted several times by protesters. Austin’s comments come as pressure builds on the Biden administration and Democrats over U.S. support for the conflict. Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.) said last week that international officials could determine that the war in Gaza legally constitutes genocide. Meanwhile, Germany is defending itself at a top United Nations court against allegations of genocide for supporting Israel’s war effort, our own ŠEJLA AHMATOVIĆ reports. Germany has pushed back on the case brought by Nicaragua, calling it “a deliberate distortion” of reality. Foreign ministry official TANIA VON USLAR-GLEICHEN told the court that “Germany has always been a strong supporter of the rights of the Palestinian people,” adding “this is, alongside Israel’s security, the second principle that has guided Germany’s response to the Middle East conflict in general, and to its current escalation in particular.” IRAN’S CLANDESTINE SMUGGLING: Tehran is operating a smuggling route across the Middle East, delivering weapons to Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, officials from the United States, Israel and Iran told The New York Times’ FARNAZ FASSIHI, RONEN BERGMAN and ERIC SCHMITT. Iranian officials described the goal as being “to foment unrest against Israel by flooding the enclave with as many weapons as it can,” the Times writes. The operation, the officials explained, goes something like this: Lots of the weapons travel along two paths from Iran through Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Israel. When the weapons cross borders, they’re given to a multinational crew, which can include intelligence operatives, militants and gangs. Bedouin smugglers are key in the operation, as they bring the weapons across the border from Jordan into Israel. Officials worry the West Bank deliveries indicate that Tehran is seeking to make the occupied Israeli territory into the next flashpoint in the shadow war between Israel and Iran. The issue is also taking on increased urgency as the U.S. assesses Iran to be an “active threat” to Israel following the Israeli airstrike that killed several senior Tehran commanders last week. CRACKED CASE: Natsec adviser Sullivan cracked his rib after falling down the stairs, two U.S. officials said, though it’s unclear if he did so at the White House or elsewhere. Sullivan had to cancel a planned visit to Saudi Arabia because of the painful injury, which he discussed with reporters today. “Cracking your rib is very painful,” he said before joking, “maybe not as painful as answering your questions.” Thus ends a minor mystery surrounding what happened to one of the most powerful people in the Biden administration. Sullivan confirmed that he aims to go to Saudi Arabia shortly in the future. SIX SAVE THE SEA: Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Norway, the United Kingdom and Denmark signed an agreement today to protect critical underwater infrastructure from foreign sabotage and attacks, our own CLAUDIA CHIAPPA reports. Denmark's climate ministry said the North Sea is becoming "a hub for critical infrastructure," connecting European countries through power cables, gas pipes and telecommunications links: "This means that an increasing cross-border interdependence has emerged — and with it an increased risk of sabotage and unwanted attention from hostile actors." European countries have grown increasingly wary about the vulnerability of their undersea infrastructure following the 2022 Nord Stream bombing, when two gas pipelines connecting Russia to Germany in the Baltic Sea were damaged by several explosions. No culprit has been identified for the Nord Stream attack. IT’S TUESDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | | YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics. | | | | | | | | | BRITS GO TO MAR-A-LAGO: U.K. Foreign Secretary DAVID CAMERON met with former President DONALD TRUMP, according to the BBC's JACQUELINE HOWARD and ALI ABBAS AHMADI. Our own GARY FINEOUT reported last night that the Florida meeting between the ex-British prime minister and former president comes as European allies seek to cajole Trump into supporting aid for Kyiv. It also came on the eve of a trip to Washington, where Cameron met with Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN and congressional leaders. Britain’s top diplomat is set to discuss a range of priorities with allies, including “bringing stability to the Middle East.” A British government spokesperson said that “it is standard practice for ministers to meet with opposition candidates as part of their routine international engagement.” As prime minister, Cameron met with then-GOP nominee MITT ROMNEY during the 2012 election.
| | | WRAY RAMPS UP 702 RHETORIC: FBI Director CHRIS WRAY today made a strong plea for Congress to preserve Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, warning the spy law already has appropriate judicial safeguards and overhauling it would “blind” the FBI to imminent terrorist threats within the U.S. “The expiration of our 702 authorities would be devastating to the FBI’s ability to protect Americans from those foreign threats,” Wray said in a speech before the American Bar Association’s Standing Committee on Law and National Security, as our own JOHN SAKELLARIADIS writes in. Wray’s pitch comes as lawmakers prepare to debate overhauling the spy law before its April 19 expiration. Section 702 allows the U.S. government to collect the communications of foreigners located abroad. But it has come under fire because the FBI can then search that database for signs U.S. citizens are talking — even unknowingly — to foreign spies, hackers and terrorists. Wray ratcheted up his case that those searches are essential to the program, arguing the war in Gaza has turbocharged the terrorist threat to the United States. “A coordinated attack here in the homeland, like the ISIS-K attack we saw at the Russia Concert Hall a couple weeks ago … is now increasingly concerning,” he said. Read: Inside the House GOP’s surveillance law nightmare by our own JORDAIN CARNEY
| | | |   | | | | | RECYCLED WEAPONS FOR UKRAINE: The U.S. gave Ukraine weapons that came from intercepted Iranian shipments meant for the Houthis, Central Command said in a statement today. Kyiv received more than 5,000 AK-47s, machine guns, sniper rifles, RPG-7s, and over 500,000 rounds of small-arms ammunition, CentCom posted on X today. The weapons were obtained from four “stateless vessels” that were intercepted between 2021 and 2023 and entered U.S. possession through the Justice Department’s ongoing civil forfeiture claims against Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. It is the second time that Kyiv has received weapons intercepted from Iran.
| | MEEKS NOT SO MEEK: Rep. GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.), the top Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, is slow-walking the planned sale of F-15 fighter jets to Israel, our own JOE GOULD reports. Meeks told CNN today that he’s returning to Washington to receive a classified briefing on the weapons package, which the administration has asked top lawmakers to approve. Due to his perch on the weapons-approving committee, Meeks is one of four lawmakers who hold an effective veto over foreign military sales (as loyal NatSec Daily readers will already know). Administrations typically seek informal approval from the top two leaders of the House Foreign Affairs and Senate Foreign Relations committees before formally notifying Congress of potential sales. The proposed sale comes amid increasing pressure on the Biden administration to leverage arms deals so Netanyahu agrees to allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza. That pressure intensified after an Israeli strike killed seven aid workers with the World Central Kitchen on April 1.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, the newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world, including WEF in Davos, Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to UNGA in NYC and many more. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | SECURITY FOR FÚTBOL: French officials said today they will “considerably” reinforce security in Paris at a popular Champions League football match after a threat from the Islamic State group, our own PIERRE EMMANUEL NGENDAKUMANA reports. The terrorist organization reportedly threatened to target quarterfinal games in the Union of European Football Associations’ flagship competition this week. Paris Saint-Germain will host Barcelona on Wednesday night. Earlier this week, a media outlet linked to ISIS released a threatening image naming the four host stadiums, which included the caption “Kill them all.” The poster prompted the governments of the host countries to increase security measures. This morning, the Spanish interior ministry also issued “orders to reinforce security where the matches will be held,” according to Spanish newspaper El País. Two quarterfinal matches will be held in Madrid this week. TAIWAN WAR GAMES: Taiwan annual war games this year will look a little different — simulating a scenario in which China turns one of its military drills into an attack on the island, Reuters’ BEN BLANCHARD reports. China’s routine drills, which happen regularly, are a constant worry for Taiwan, and this round of drills focuses on how different branches of the country’s military can quickly coordinate together if one turns into an invasion. Last year, Taiwan’s simulation focused on defending the country’s main airport and how to keep sea lanes open in case of a Chinese blockade. Officials have extended the war games from five days to eight, Taiwan’s defense ministry said today. Actual combat exercises will take place in July.
| | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — BILL RUSSO has left the State Department where he has served as assistant secretary for global public affairs, our DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. SecState Blinken thanked Russo for his service and said in a statement that he had "helped modernize our approach to sharing the story of America and American diplomacy, while keeping us rooted to the timeless human stories at the heart of our work." MARK TONER, who was nominated last year as ambassador to Liberia and is a former spokesperson for the department in the Obama administration, will lead the Bureau of Global Public Affairs as acting assistant secretary. Toner most recently was minister counselor for public diplomacy at the U.S. Embassy in Paris. — ILLIA VITIUK, head of cybersecurity at Ukraine’s Security Service, was suspended from his duties and reassigned to serve in combat following a corruption investigation. — Iceland’s Foreign Minister BJARNI BENEDIKTSSON will be the country’s next prime minister, replacing KATRIN JAKOBSDOTTIR who resigned from the post last week to run for president.
| | — LIONEL BARBER, POLITICO: Japan hunkers down for Trump 2.0 — CHRISTOPHER CALDWELL, The New York Times: Everyone wants to seize Russia's money. It’s a terrible idea. — ALEXANDER GABUEV, Foreign Affairs: Putin and Xi's unholy alliance
| | — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: Chinese interference in Taiwan's 2024 elections and lessons learned — Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: The posture of U.S. special operations command and U.S. cyber command in review of the defense authorization request forFY2025 and the future years defense program — House Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.: U.S. military posture and national security challenges in Europe — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10 a.m.: FY2025 budget request for U.S. Agency for International Development — House Foreign Affairs Global Health, Global Human Rights, and International Organizations Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: The Chinese communist party's malign influence at the United Nations - it's getting worse — House Appropriations Homeland Security Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: FY2025 request for the Department of Homeland Security — House Appropriations Defense Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: FY2025 request for the United States navy and marine corps — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10:30 a.m.: Senegal's democracy: how did we get here and what shall we expect? — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2 p.m.: Pivotal states: the Venezuela problem — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 2 p.m.: USAID's foreign policy and international development priorities in the era of great power competition — Women's Foreign Policy Group, 5 p.m.: Women in China: regressive gender governance in authoritarian states Thanks to our editor, Jessica Meyers, who will lose her mandate over this newsletter tomorrow when Heidi returns from vacation. We also thank our producer, Raymond Rapada, who we hope never leaves NatSec Daily.
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