| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  A person close to Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office told NatSec Daily that “it's deeply frustrating to know that there are air defenses in neighboring countries capable of intercepting Russian missiles aimed at western Ukraine, yet they remain inactive to ‘avoid escalation.’” | Ukrainian Presidential Press Office via AP | | With help from Connor O’Brien Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric Ukraine has long wanted the United States and allies to come to its direct defense as Russia hurls hundreds of missiles at its cities. Kyiv just saw Israel receive exactly that support — and is fuming about it. Iran launched a barrage of missiles and drones at Israel over the weekend, nearly all of which were shot down by Israel as well as the U.S., the U.K., France and Jordan. Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY and Foreign Minister DMYTRO KULEBA have used the moment to argue for the U.S. to send more assistance to their country, which has been pleading for more air defenses in recent months. “European skies could have received the same level of protection long ago if Ukraine had received similar full support from its partners in intercepting drones and missiles,” Zelenskyy wrote in a post on X. “Terror must be defeated completely and everywhere, not more in some places and less in others.” A person close to Zelenskyy’s office told NatSec Daily that “it's deeply frustrating to know that there are air defenses in neighboring countries capable of intercepting Russian missiles aimed at western Ukraine, yet they remain inactive to ‘avoid escalation.’” The situation with Israel is “particularly indignant,” said the person, who was granted anonymity to discuss private conversations. World leaders backing Ukraine agreed with that sentiment. The U.S., Germany and The Netherlands have provided Ukraine with a few Patriot missile defense systems, and Ukraine has publicly said it can shoot down Russian missiles and drones 90 percent of the time. That number has dropped to 46 percent during recent large strikes. The U.S. calculation may come down to two reasons: Washington might not believe a wider war will break out if it defends Israel against Iran, while the U.S. does believe it will get dragged into war with Russia if it directly helps Ukraine. Also, Russia has nukes and threatens to use them against the West, while Iran does not. “Different conflicts, different airspace, different threat picture,” National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters today when asked why Ukraine isn’t directly defended by the United States. “The president has been clear since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine that the United States is not going to be involved in that conflict in a combat role.” The defense of Israel also underscores the difference between the U.S. relationship with Ukraine, which only became a close partner following Russia’s invasion, and Israel, which has been Washington’s staunchest ally in the Middle East for decades. While Ukraine begs for more help as its towns are overtaken by invading soldiers, Israel receives the assistance it needs without hesitation. Top Ukrainian officials don’t understand why the U.S. won’t directly protect Ukraine from Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure, for instance. Kyiv doesn’t believe that Moscow would view that as an escalation, so it should be safe for Washington to help, the person close to the office added. Another point of contention: In February, Vice President KAMALA HARRIS privately told Zelenskyy that Ukraine shouldn’t strike Russian oil refineries, an opinion publicly echoed by Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN in front of lawmakers last week. Those recommendations have frustrated Kyiv and provide yet another contrast to Israel, whose strike on Iran's consulate in Syria (without giving the U.S. a heads up) led to the attacks over the weekend. Some Ukrainian lawmakers say they hope the Iran strike could lead to Congress finally passing a supplemental package that would provide assistance to Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan. YEHOR CHERNIEV, deputy chair of the Ukrainian parliament’s Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence, told NatSec Daily he hoped that U.S. lawmakers would push that funding through to “increase pressure on the Axis of Evil on the European front,” referring to Iran, Russia, China and North Korea. But a couple conservatives in Washington are saying the quiet part out loud: “Israel is much more important to the United States than Ukraine is,” Sen. J.D. VANCE (R-Ohio) told CNN on Sunday, adding that the supplemental as it stands will spread Washington “even thinner.” Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.), who’s trying to oust Speaker MIKE JOHNSON over his support for Ukraine assistance as he pushes for a vote this week, also called for a separate bill to help Israel. “We would oppose a standalone bill” that only focuses on Israel, Kirby also told reporters. Now, Congress is waiting for Johnson’s next move. He’s still sorting out the best way forward, and we’re hoping to get more clarity after a closed-door meeting of the GOP conference this evening. Scroll down to On the Hill for more on the speaker’s possible moves.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Constantly evolving to meet emerging threats. In today’s world, you need to spot the threats before they’re seen.
That’s why Lockheed Martin’s vision of 21st Century Security means pushing the boundaries of defense tech to build a new standard of deterrence and protection. Learn more. | | | | | US TROOPS ON ALERT: The Pentagon is preparing for attacks on its troops in the Middle East following Iran’s missile barrage on Israel over the weekend, our own LARA SELIGMAN and PAUL McLEARY report. None of the 300-some drones or missiles launched posed a threat to Americans in the region, a senior administration official told our colleagues. But thousands of forces are stationed across the Middle East, including at vulnerable outposts in Iraq and Syria and aboard ships in the Red Sea. Additional troops are scheduled to arrive in the coming days for a dangerous mission to begin constructing a pier to help bring in aid to starving Gazans. DOD officials said they did not immediately see any new threat to U.S. troops in the Middle East on Sunday, however the situation is dynamic — and a lot will depend on what Israel does next. Read: White House opposes standalone Israel funding bill by our own EUGENE DANIELS DID IRAN GIVE A HEADS UP? The U.S. pushed back today on Iran’s claims that it directly gave Washington a warning about the attack on Israel. At today’s White House press briefing, Kirby said that “we did receive messages from Iran, and they received messages from us too,” but noted “Iran never delivered a message giving us the time and the targets.” Over the weekend, Iran said it gave other countries, including the United States, notice ahead of the strike. Iraqi officials backed those claims up to Reuters, saying Iran told them days in advance about the attacks. A Turkish official also told Reuters Ankara served as an intermediary between Washington and Tehran. Asked why U.S. partners would lie about sharing info with Washington, Kirby said: “I'm not calling anybody a liar here. I'm telling you, from our perspective, what we knew and what we didn't know. And we were able to help with Israel's defenses because we had information that we had received and Israel received through our own efforts.” SUDAN’S UNWANTED ANNIVERSARY: One year after the outset of Sudan’s civil war, fighting between two feuding factions shows no sign of abating as the grim milestone has brought into sharp relief how fighting has devastated the African country. International observers say more than 8 million people have fled their homes and more than 14,000 people have been killed. The death toll is likely significantly higher — observers cannot enter the country physically due to the dangerous conditions on the ground. There are also mounting concerns about widespread starvation, as U.N. officials warn that hundreds of thousands of Sudanese children could die from hunger this year, and reports that the mainly-Arab Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group is committing war crimes, including targeted sexual violence, against ethnic minorities in Sudan’s western Darfur region. The current conflict, the continuation of Sudan’s political instability since the ouster of longtime dictator OMAR AL-BASHIR in 2019, has devolved into a proxy war. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Ukraine and Iran support the central government in Khartoum, while the United Arab Emirates and the Russian mercenary Wagner Group support the RSF paramilitary group. ABU GHRAIB TRIAL: The first trial regarding the abuse of detainees following the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks kicks off today with a case brought by three men who were held in the U.S.-run Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq, The Guardian’s ALICE SPERI reports. The jury trial, held in federal court in Virginia, involves SUHAIL NAJIM ABDULLAH AL SHIMARI, SALAH AL-EJAILI and AS’AD AL-ZUBA’E, Iraqi civilians who were detained at Abu Ghraib and released without charge in 2004. Photos depicting the torture and abuse at the prison were released nearly two decades ago, prompting international backlash against the U.S. as it pursued the War on Terror. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | TRUSS FOR TRUMP: The world would look a lot different if DONALD TRUMP were still in office today, former British Prime Minister LIZ TRUSS said, endorsing the former president ahead of the November election. Trump “was more effective at preventing aggressive regimes expanding, and I think we’d be in a different position if he got re-elected in 2020,” she told a British radio station, per our own NOAH KEATE. Her remarks align with Trump’s own comments over the weekend about Iran’s attack on Israel: Both Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack and the Iranian attacks on Israel “would not have happened if we were in office,” he said at a Saturday rally, and criticized what he said was President JOE BIDEN’s “weakness” abroad.
| | | | POLITICO IS BACK AT THE 2024 MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE: POLITICO will again be your eyes and ears at the 27th Annual Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles from May 5-8 with exclusive, daily, reporting in our Global Playbook newsletter. Suzanne Lynch will be on the ground covering the biggest moments, behind-the-scenes buzz and on-stage insights from global leaders in health, finance, tech, philanthropy and beyond. Get a front-row seat to where the most interesting minds and top global leaders confront the world’s most pressing and complex challenges — subscribe today. | | | | | | | | TIKTOK’S DATA SHARING WITH BEIJING: Former TikTok employees are leveling explosive allegations against the embattled social media platform — including that employees were asked to relay data from U.S. users back to Beijing. According to Fortune’s ALEXANDRA STERNLICHT, 11 former TikTok employees claim that TikTok CEO SHOU ZI CHEW misled Congressional regulators when he stated that the app was largely separate from its Chinese parent company ByteDance. Instead, the employees charge that the separation from Beijing mainly existed on paper and that American staffers were regularly reporting to China-based executives at the company, even when they were listed as reporting to a U.S.-based manager. One of the employees, EVAN TURNER, also alleged that the China-based executive to which he reported asked him to regularly send “spreadsheets filled with data for hundreds of thousands of U.S. users to ByteDance workers in Beijing.” A TikTok spokesperson told Fortune that these are "completely unfounded assertions brought forth by disgruntled ex-employees." The ex-employees’ claims come as lawmakers in both parties have homed in on TikTok and pursued new regulation that would force its sale. A bill demanding the sale of TikTok, lest it face a ban on U.S. app stores, passed by a wide margin in the House last month. The Senate is workshopping its own version of a bill addressing user privacy on social media platforms.
| | | KABUL AIRPORT REVIEW: A review of a 2021 suicide bombing at the Kabul airport found that Marines there did not have the attacker in their sights previously in the day, resolving questions as to whether snipers could have prevented a devastating terrorist attack that killed 13 service members, according to The Washington Post’s DAN LAMOTHE. Marines had previously testified to the House Foreign Affairs Committee that they had seen the attacker at the airport and had him in their gunsights. Investigators used facial-recognition technology and interviewed additional Marines present at the airport in order to better ascertain what happened that day. They found that Marines on a sniper team had equated vetted intelligence reports with unverified “spot reports” from service members on site. “Over the past two years, some service members have claimed that they had the bomber in their sights, and they could have prevented the attack,” a member of the review team said to reporters. “But we now know that is not correct.”
| | | |   | | | | | JOHNSON’S PATH FORWARD: Johnson could pursue any of several paths in response to the Iranian attack and calls for a foreign aid vote, our own CONNOR O’BRIEN writes in. One option: he could hold a vote on legislation that only grants aid to Israel, as he did following the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks. The Louisiana Republican could also grant a vote on the $95 billion Senate-passed aid bill for Ukraine, Israel and the Pacific, potentially with some tweaks or alongside separate legislation that includes GOP priorities, such as measures to allow seized Russian assets to be spent on Ukraine. He could also bring up a package that includes Ukraine money, but significantly trims it by focusing on military aid or converting some of it to a loan. Johnson could also bring up aid for Israel, Ukraine and the Pacific for separate votes. Johnson has ignored the aid package since the Senate passed it two months ago, but House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES and Democrats are ramping up pressure to finally vote on it. "The gravely serious events of this past weekend in the Middle East and Eastern Europe underscore the need for Congress to act immediately," Jeffries argued in a letter today. "We must take up the bipartisan and comprehensive national security bill passed by the Senate forthwith." IRAN SANCTIONS ON THE DOCKET: In the meantime, the House will vote on a large slate of Iran-focused legislation when they come back this evening. In a departure from the previously announced schedule, House leadership said Sunday night they will try to bring a baker’s dozen bills specifically targeting Iran to a vote this week. Many will be brought to the floor under a suspension of the rules, meaning they will need a two-thirds vote to advance to the Senate. The bills on the floor this evening would, among other things, declare the Tehran-backed Houthi rebels a foreign terrorist group and prevent the White House from issuing waivers for sanctions on Iran’s financial sector. They are expected to enjoy bipartisan support.
| | | | SHOW RESTRAINT: Following Iran’s missile attack on Israel, other Western leaders joined Biden in sending a clear message for Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU: This must not escalate further, our own ANDREW MCDONALD and VICTOR GOURY-LAFFONT report. “All sides must show restraint,” U.K. Prime Minister RISHI SUNAK said today. French President EMMANUEL MACRON told French broadcasters that “we are all worried about a possible escalation … we will do all we can to avoid things flaring up, escalating.” During a visit to China on Sunday, German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ said “things must not continue in this way,” adding that “we will do everything we can to avoid further escalation.”
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: A bigger perspective to the battlespace.
Seeing the whole picture is Lockheed Martin’s vision of 21st Century Security – innovating defense tech to deliver answers exactly when and where they’re needed most. Learn more. | | | | | — Former South Carolina governor and U.N. ambassador NIKKI HALEY will join the Hudson Institute as Walter P. Stern chair, the organization announced this morning. — Singapore Prime Minister LEE HSIEN LOONG announced he will step down on May 15 after two decades at the helm of the Asian city-state. He is asking the country’s ruling party to select his deputy LAWRENCE WONG to take over.
| | — MICHAEL HIRSH, POLITICO: ‘This seems to be a major strategic error on the part of Iran’ — SHIRA EFRON, Foreign Affairs: The best way to deal with Gaza’s humanitarian crisis — W.J. HENNIGAN, The New York Times: The U.S. has received a rare invitation from China. There is only one right answer
| | — House Select Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party Committee, 8 a.m.: The CCP's role in the fentanyl crisis — Stimson Center, 9 a.m.: Digital surveillance in North Korea — United States Institute of Peace, 9 a.m.: “Africa Futures Summit” on Africa and the future of multilateralism: toward sustainable, effective and transformative partnerships — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 9:30 a.m.: A conference on India's economic development and U.S.-India economic relations with the theme "Making India an Advanced Economy by 2047" — Wilson Center's Global Europe Program and the Royal United Services Institute, 10 a.m.: Mass precision strike: designing UAV complexes for land forces — House Homeland Security Committee, 10 a.m.: A review of the FY2025 budget request for the Department of Homeland Security — House Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.: Department of the Army FY2025 budget request — House Financial Services National Security, Illicit Finance, and International Financial Institutions Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: Held for ransom: how ransomware endangers our financial system — Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, 10 a.m.: Human rights in Turkey today — Hudson Institute, 11 a.m.: The battle for the Black Sea is not over — Hudson Institute, 11:30 a.m.: Transatlantic relations, the war in Ukraine, and the U.S.-Czech alliance — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 12:30 p.m.: Congress' role in foreign policy — Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, 1:15 p.m.: The republic of Malta: leading the OSCE through turbulent times — Wilson Center's Canada Institute, 1:15 p.m.: Virtual launch of the Washington Forum on the Canadian Economy — Center for Global Development, 2 p.m.: The challenges facing international institutions today — Institute of World Politics, 5 p.m.: Ukraine's most important battle: fighting for American hearts and minds — Wilson Center's China Environment Forum and the U.S. Heartland China Association, 8 p.m.: Green alliances: cultivating U.S. and Chinese climate leadership Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is neither our ally nor our partner. We also thank our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who we stand by no matter the consequences.
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