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Georgieva seals the deal

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Apr 17, 2024 View in browser
 
Global Playbook

By Suzanne Lynch

GOOD MORNING from the IMF-World Bank spring meetings in Washington, where America’s capital city has been transformed into a sea of power suits and slow-moving black SUVs as bankers, politicians and policymakers come together for the annual gathering. 

Tonight’s big ticket item is the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors’ dinner.

It’s VIP-only though, so spare a thought for the rest of us slumming it in the various eateries and cafés around town (though full marks to the IMF media center, which has a constant supply of dainty sandwiches on hand to help journalists power through).

Some of the big names have started to fly in for the annual shindig (check out our full agenda below to find out what’s happening today). Here’s a rundown of some of the figures in town for the gathering:  

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde, Chinese Finance Minister Lan Fo’an, OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann, economist  Joe Stiglitz, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, Polish Finance Minister Andrzej Dománski, Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley, Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, Melinda Gates, Bank of America’s Brian Moynihan, Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan, South African Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana.

GEORGIEVA BRINGS IT HOME

HOME AND DRY: Nothing shakes up a sleepy multilateral institution like a leadership battle. But luckily for IMF chief  Kristalina Georgieva, she’s managed to clinch a second term at the helm of the IMF. The Bulgarian national, who jumped ship from the World Bank to lead the IMF in 2019 when Christine Lagarde joined the European Central Bank, was the sole candidate when nominations closed on April 3, with the executive board backing her nomination to lead that Friday. 

Rumblings of discontent: But not everyone is happy — and that’s an understatement. “We have ongoing performance concerns with her leadership of the IMF,” Patrick McHenry, chair of the Financial Services Committee in the United States House of Representatives, told my colleague Jasper Goodman.

Tell us how you really feel: Vice chair French Hill, a Republican from Arkansas, also dissed Georgieva. The “current leadership” has taken the IMF down the wrong path, he told POLITICO. “I don’t believe that the IMF should get beyond its core mission of providing short-term stabilization and finance for people experiencing some sort of a sovereign credit challenge, either due to a lack of dollars or short-term dislocation.” 

“The IMF’s there to help that balance of payments. It’s not there to be a development bank. The World Bank is a development organization,” Hill said.

Background: Discontent with Georgieva’s leadership of the organization among Republicans on Capitol Hill has been rumbling on for some time. In March, McHenry wrote to U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, urging her to push for new leadership and arguing that Georgieva’s tenure at the World Bank and IMF had been plagued by “ethical lapses.”

You can’t escape your past: In particular, the letter cites a 2021 probe into allegations that she tampered with data during her time as chief executive of the World Bank in order to boost China’s ranking in the annual Doing Business report for 2018. He also cited her handling of a sexual harassment case while at the World Bank. 

Playing politics: The tough talk by senior figures on Capitol Hill could be dismissed as part of the rough and tumble of political life. But the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House next year could make the next five years a bumpy ride if Republicans are unhappy with her leadership. It’s also the case that the Biden administration — and Yellen — inherited Georgieva, as they were not in charge when she was first appointed. 

Staying the course: Nonetheless, Georgieva — who is well-respected in Europe, having previously served as an EU commissioner — has plenty of steadfast support. In a move that clinched her path, European Union finance ministers backed her renomination last month. That’s despite other possible senior European candidates — including Eurogroup president Paschal Donohoe, who chairs the meetings of eurozone finance ministers, along with French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire — were seen as possible candidates for the job. 

Staying focused: Around the corridors of the institutions, there’s lots of chatter among staff about the rapid-fire nature of Georgieva’s coronation. But the message from HQ is that it’s full steam ahead for the IMF chief. An IMF spokesperson pointed us to her statement on Friday, where she said she was “honored” to lead the IMF for another five-year term, highlighting her work on climate change and navigating the fund through crises like the Covid pandemic.  

UKRAINE DIVISIONS LAID BARE

UKRAINE IN FOCUS: Finance ministers and central bank governors from the G7 group of developed economies (plus the EU) will meet today amid deep divisions over the next steps for Ukraine — in particular the contentious issue of whether to use frozen Russian assets. The meeting takes place this afternoon just after the Ukraine Ministerial Roundtable, which will be attended by Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal. 

Explainer: The United States, backed by Canada and the United Kingdom, want to use Russia’s money — but the EU members of the G7 group are opposed, concerned about the precedent it sets, and pointing out that most of those assets are parked in Europe. Instead, the Europeans favor targeting profits generated by the assets. Belgium is now also in hot water amid accusations that its government is hoarding profits from Russia’s frozen assets instead of handing cash to Kyiv and its depleted forces. All this coincides with a crucial week on Capitol Hill, as House Speaker Mike Johnson tries a new set of votes to (finally) unlock long-promised U.S. aid to Ukraine. 

‘Cliff-edge moment’: In an interview with Playbook, European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis called on the U.S. to step up. “We know that discussions are continuing in Congress, but it’s high time they drew to a close. It’s more than just a question of a funding gap. We are now at a cliff-edge moment.” 

Do the right thing: Dombrovskis, who will hold bilateral meetings with Republicans on the hill today, warns of a “dangerous moment” as Ukraine struggles on the battlefield. “We have been strong in providing financial, military support, and Ukraine was able to hold back against Russia’s aggression — even make advances. But now this is fading, due to the lack of political will on the U.S. side.”

“It’s a dangerous moment. We really cannot lose focus. We need to be very serious about supporting Ukraine, about letting Ukraine defend itself and win this war, or otherwise the consequences are going to be worse for everyone,” Dombrovskis said.

No time to lose: The discussion comes at a time when Vladimir Putin has arguably never been closer to his goal. The West’s failure to sufficiently support Ukraine is putting Russia on course for victory, POLITICO’s opinion editor Jamie Dettmer reports from Kyiv.

UK chancellor weighs in: Meanwhile, in an interview with POLITICO’s Zach Warmbrodt,  Britain’s Jeremy Hunt (who will attend today’s G7 meeting), said a new U.S. proposal that would involve structuring a loan backed by windfall profits from Russia assets was “intriguing.”

“We’re very supportive of ways to make Russia pay the price for the appalling crimes that they’ve committed in Ukraine,” Hunt said. “Our starting point is to look at these proposals, particularly the recent proposal from Secretary Yellen, and say: What would it take to make it work?”

Staying on the right side of the law: Hunt also pointed out how it is vital that any plan to use Russian assets remain mindful of international law. “When it comes to financial sanctions, we want to make sure that we stay on the right side of the line. But we also want to do everything we can to make sure that Russia picks up the tab for the terrible damage that they’ve caused,” he told Zach.

Yellen-watch: The big question is whether the U.S. will go it alone and move forward with an idea without full G7 buy-in. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said at her press conference Tuesday that allies were looking at ways to unlock the assets — though she added that “there are ways of managing the risks” associated with using them. Interestingly, she’s due to meet bilaterally with both German Finance Minister Christian Lindner and Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal today, outside of the wider meetings.

MONEY TALK

TAX THE RICH! France has long held a reputation as a country with a socialist streak. Today, it’s set to live up to that leftie stereotype with a plan to target the world’s richest individuals.

Details: French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire and Brazil’s Fernando Haddad will outline proposals today to clamp down on high net-worth individuals by increasing transparency obligations for taxpayers and increase information-sharing between tax authorities. Read the full story by Giorgio Leali here.

TRUMP RETURN:  He may be busy in court 200-plus miles north in New York City —  but the possibility of a Trump return to the White House is looming over proceedings here in Washington. “To be honest, I don’t think there will be any real decision made here given we’re in an election year,” said one senior G7 official, granted anonymity to speak about sensitive internal matters. 

Case in point: In a reminder of just how significant this year’s election will be to the global economy, POLITICO’s own Gavin Bade reported this week that economic advisers close to former President Donald Trump, including former trade chief Robert Lighthizer, are actively debating ways to devalue the U.S. dollar if he’s elected to a second term — a dramatic move that could boost U.S. exports but also reignite inflation and threaten the dollar’s position as the world’s dominant currency.

Getting tough on China: Meanwhile, the current U.S. president will call for tripling of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from China in a speech today in the rust belt city of Pittsburgh. President Joe Biden’s speech to workers recalls the launch of his bid back in 2019 in a Pittsburgh union hall, as the president aims to boost his campaign less than seven months out from this year’s election.

AROUND TOWN

— Tired of queuing through security? Use the underground tunnel to transfer between the IMF’S HQ1 and HQ2 buildings to avoid the lines. (In contrast, try finding the tunnel that connects the IMF and World Bank at your peril.)

— Make sure to drop by the Thailand booth in IMF HQ1, where colorful tote bags and e-books are on offer. The reason? Thailand is gearing up to host the 2026 annual meetings in Bangkok. Winter sunshine, anyone?

— Guests at last night’s Bayer Africa Agriculture rooftop reception hosted by the Business Council for International Understanding were treated to one of the best views in D.C. Ambassadors, representatives from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and officials from the National Security Council and World Bank gathered at the Pennsylvania Avenue location, where they heard about about use of agricultural technology in Africa against the skyline of the U.S. capital.

AGENDA

— 9 a.m. IMF’s Fiscal Monitor launch and press conference. IMF HQ1

— 9:45 a.m. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen holds trilateral meeting with Japanese Finance Minister Shun’ichi Suzuki and Korean Finance Minister Sang-mok Choi

— 10 a.m. Energizing Africa: What will it take to achieve universal energy access? World Bank, MC

— 10:30 a.m. “New Challenges in International Taxation” — IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, Kenyan Finance Minister Njung’una S. Ngundu, Laurence Tubiana 

— 11:30 a.m. Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable 

— 1:15 p.m. Ukraine Ministerial Roundtable, with Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal

— 2 p.m. 11th Ministerial Meeting of the Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action 

— 2 p.m. ECB chief Christine Lagarde  in conversation with Council on Foreign Relations’ Michael Froman, Peterson Institute of International Economics

— 4:15 p.m. Meeting of  G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors

— Day One of the World Economy Summit, hosted by Semafor at Green Rooms in Mellon and Gallup Great Hall. Speakers include U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, former U.S. Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker, acting Labor Secretary Julie Su, Ceo of Intel Pat Gelsinger, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner, José Muñoz, president of Hyundai, European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis, U.S. Transport Secretary Pete Buttigieg, U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt and Gretchen Watkins, president of Shell in the U.S. 

— Atlantic Council events. 9:30 a.m. conversation with Spanish Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo; 2:55 p.m. conversation with South African Minister of Finance Enoch Godongwana; 5 p.m. conversation with Irish Finance Minister Michael McGrath.

— Center for Global Development. 5:30 p.m. fireside chat with EIB President Nadia Calviño; 8 p.m. fireside chat with Jin Liquin, president of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. 

THANKS TO: Zach Warmbrodt, Adam Behsudi and editor Sonya Diehn.

 

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Suzanne Lynch @suzannelynch1

 

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