Get used to 343

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Apr 22, 2024 View in browser   By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Jordan Wolman with Philippe J. Fournier Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Nick | Follow Politico Canada Welcome to Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it. In today’s edition:  → Tuesday is 343 Day. → Bickering over capital gains is gonna get noisier. → Global plastics pollution is the talk of the Shaw Centre. Talk of the town TRIVIAL PURSUIT — We're revving our engines for the fourth round in our First Annual POLITICO Canada Trivia Cup. Public servants are next up Tuesday at the Métropolitain. We still have room for a couple of last-minute entries. — Calling all parliamentarians: The fifth round of the Trivia Cup is for MPs, senators and their geekiest and keenest staff. We're recruiting teams for May 6 at the Met. We have plenty of space. Just cook up a team name and recruit your sharpest colleagues. — Signing up is easy: RSVP to the quizmaster today! DRIVING THE DAY Any by-elections contested between Tuesday and the next general election will fall under existing boundaries, not the new map. | Getty Images IT'S TIME — Canada's new electoral map takes effect tomorrow. In the extremely unlikely case New Democrats vote against CHRYSTIA FREELAND's budget and the Liberals lose the confidence of the House of Commons, voters won't elect 338 MPs in the election that would follow. Welcome to the era of 343, thanks to all the riding boundary overhauls and tweaks hammered out during an extensive process of redistribution that started in 2021 in response to population change in Canada. → Important caveat: Any by-elections contested between Tuesday and the next general election will fall under existing boundaries, not the new map. Playbook teamed up with 338Canada's PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER to guide you through some nooks and crannies of the new map. — The first projection: To the shock of precisely nobody, Conservatives are currently projected to win a 200-plus seat majority. The Liberals land closer to the 70-seat mark. — Three ridings that flip: We scoured the 343-seat map for examples of vulnerable incumbents. Here are two Liberals and a Tory who will struggle for reelection thanks to territorial gains and losses. → Flip No. 1: Fisheries Minister DIANE LEBOUTHILLIER in Gaspésie—Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine—Listuguj One of the most obvious losses for the Liberals is in Quebec's Gaspésie region. Lebouthillier's riding is merging with significant chunks of territory to the west, inducing Matane and Carleton-sur-Mer — which were wall-to-wall Bloc Québécois regions in 2021. This riding shifts from a Liberal seat with a 7-point margin to a Bloc seat by 4 points. Considering the Liberal polling struggle in Quebec, this should be an easy Bloc pick-up. → Flip No. 2: Conservative MP GARY VIDAL in Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River This northern Saskatchewan riding loses significant pieces of its southern flank, which includes Meadow Lakes and small towns just outside of Prince Albert. In 2021, Vidal was reelected with a comfortable 22-point margin. The new boundaries would hand an easy 22-point victory to the Liberals over the NDP — with Vidal falling to third. Unless we see a dramatic shift in public opinion, the redrawn map should prevent another 14-seat Conservative sweep in the province. → Flip No. 3: Liberal MP GEORGE CHAHAL in Calgary-Skyview Alberta's three new seats constitute a net gain for the Conservatives. Among those is the lone Liberal seat in Calgary. Chahal's redrawn riding would flip from a 6-point win to an 11-point loss. The Liberal-friendly parts of the old Skyview riding will shape significant parts of the new Calgary-McKnight riding. In 2021, McKnight would have elected a Liberal by 11 points — so Alberta’s largest city could yet send a Liberal to Ottawa next time 'round. BEHIND THE SCENES — Making the switch from an old map to a new map is a pile of work for political parties: massive spreadsheets, long conversations with local organizers, and new campaign signs for any riding with a revamped name. Playbook talked through logistics with DANIELLE SAMPSON, a key player in the NDP's effort to shift to a new map before the 2015 election. Sampson was the party's associate director of training and development, and then deputy director of field organization. → Bank accounts: Sampson helped stand up 30 new riding associations and organize hundreds of others with altered boundaries. The party transferred assets between districts. If a new riding shaved off, say, 40 percent of another riding, the new one would typically receive 40 percent of the old one's assets. That process led to "tough conversations" with local organizers whose hard-earned bank accounts suffered. The party made exceptions for competitive seats surrounded by unwinnable ones. For example: parts of the B.C. interior. → Voter education: Local NDP volunteers sometimes found themselves in the awkward position of speaking to voters about both the present and the future. Many voters whose neighborhoods switched ridings required some TLC. For example, they'd knock doors with a sitting MP and talk about whatever was on voters' minds that day. But they'd also introduce the party's candidate in the redrawn riding, explaining to voters that their current MP would contest a neighboring seat next time. Not the simplest conversations to have with voters who aren't plugged in to the process. But all part of the tedious number-crunching and messy democracy that comes with a new map. Do you have war stories from riding redistributions of yore? We want to hear them . — Meanwhile, at 338Canada: Each weekly 338Canada projection produces more than 10,000 new data points: vote projection, seat projection, odds of winning for each riding for each party, plus the uncertainty measure for every value. Add the national, regional and subregional numbers, each party’s vote, and seat probability distributions. Each week, Fournier stores the massive output in a file that powers the 338Canada website. Same goes with past results and demographic data for all electoral districts. These are stored in matrices that match specific districts. Once the map and seat counts change, all these matrices have to be rearranged. → For the record: The site’s name will remain 338Canada, which in time will gain a vintage feel — akin to, say, Coca-Cola Classic. For your radar GAINS AND LOSSES — CHRYSTIA FREELAND's three-week pre-budget roadshow landed a drumbeat of friendly headlines. The Liberals scored credit for testing a new comms strategy and winning a few news cycles before their critics could land serious blows. But the crafty rollout came with a mega trade-off. The Liberals have ceded much of the post-budget commentary to haters with big platforms. Freeland and Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU are now entering trench warfare in a major fight they've picked with the upper class and those working hard to join it. → Water cooler: Spark Advocacy senior director ALEX KOHUT, formerly a PMO pollster, pointed out last week that capital gains curiosity dominated post-budget Google Trends. — Ottawa sucks at this: Complex public policy debates die somewhere between op-ed pages and the floor of the House of Commons. The government's intention to raise the inclusion rate on capital gains that exceed C$250,000 annually is this week's Exhibit A. — What's actually on the table: A cocktail of measures, including an extended lifetime capital gains exemption and a lower inclusion rate for some entrepreneurs. The government insists all but the wealthiest Canadians will actually be better off. — About that letter: The Council of Canadian Innovators' BEN BERGEN is one of the faces of the backlash. Bergen's outfit championed an open letter to Freeland and Trudeau that accused Liberals of punishing risk-taking entrepreneurs for their success — and inviting them to take their dollars to friendlier places (read: New York, California). Bergen claimed the tax changes will hit far more than the top 0.13 percent of earners in Canada. Your local barber, electrician or plumber could also pay more, he told CBC News. — Counterargument: JON SHELL of Social Capital Partners, a leading advocate for small businesses during the pandemic, advised Bergen to "stay in his lane." "A business run by a family of four likely just got an extra C$1 million in tax-free capital gains when they sell," Shell tells Playbook. "The tech folks have done two days of work on an Excel spreadsheet and suddenly they speak for everyone. Stick to what you know." — Shades of 2017: The developing saga echoes the aftermath of tax reform proposals that angered small businesses seven years ago — and forced the Liberals to backtrack. The investor class won't back down this week. And the government's cross-Canada budget roadshow is likely finished scoring easy headlines. — In related listening: On "The Decibel" today: The capital gains tax, explained. More than 4,000 negotiators are in Ottawa for U.N. talks on plastic pollution. | AFP via Getty Images PLASTICS POLITICS — Plastic pollution negotiators from around the world are at the Shaw Centre all week. More than 4,000 people are here for U.N. talks. — Why they're here: Canadians play host to the fourth of five planned rounds of negotiations in an attempt to clinch a global deal to significantly cut plastic pollution clogging waterways and damaging biodiversity. They want to hash it out by year's end. — Sticking points: Talks have so far yielded little progress on thorny issues, such as global limits on plastic production and financing for developing countries to improve their recycling and reuse infrastructure. The eternal question: Should any of this be globally binding? — Where they stand: Canada, alongside the EU and other allies, is participating in a High Ambition Coalition calling for globally binding plastic production caps. China, Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia, among others, think the treaty should only deal with the downstream waste management of plastics and not the upstream extraction or production. The U.S. is somewhere in the middle, not joining the HAC but also disputing the China-led group’s assertion that the agreement shouldn’t tackle the full life cycle of plastics. — Domestic challenge: Recall last year's federal court ruling, which struck down parts of a federal law classifying some plastic products as toxic. — The spotlight: Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT has plum speaking slots. He’ll kick off a day-long “call for ambition” this morning. Guilbeault also led meetings on Sunday, including with the delegations from Kenya, Uruguay, France and South Korea, the hosts of other rounds of plastics negotiations. → Talking points: “Tackling the plastics crisis has benefits for everything — the economy, the environment,” EDDY PÉREZ, a Guilbeault spokesperson, tells Playbook. “He's going to be driving that message on and on and on, and he wants to do it in a way that we're able to listen to every single interest." — Bold-faced names: Other Canadians taking part in the event with Guilbeault today are Parliamentary Secretary JULIE DABRUSIN, Vice-Chief Science Advisor GENEVIÈVE TANGUAY, Quebec Environment Minister BENOIT CHARETTE, and Inuit Circumpolar Council Canada President LISA QILUQQI KOPERQUALUK. → From Washington: Democratic Sens. JEFF MERKLEY, SHELDON WHITEHOUSE, PETER WELCH and KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND, and Rep. JARED HUFFMAN. MARY-EILEEN MANNING, a policy adviser for Republican Sen. DAN SULLIVAN is here, too. ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR CPC SHAKEUP — Conservative MP KAREN VECCHIO's ousting last week as chair of the House status of women committee by her own caucus colleagues snuck under the radar of many Hill watchers. Liberals and New Democrats protested the abrupt switch. Vecchio, a three-term MP from southwestern Ontario, was also booted from the House liaison committee last Wednesday — the same day as a weekly national caucus meeting. She was replaced as chair Thursday by rookie MP SHELBY KRAMP-NEUMAN. Women's advocates voiced their displeasure in response. NDP MP LEAH GAZAN moved a motion Thursday to thank Vecchio, who'd held the gavel since 2017, but the committee suspended before it came to a vote. — Surely a coincidence: Vecchio was one of a small gaggle of Conservative MPs who dared attend the annual Press Gallery Dinner a few days earlier (she was the guest of CTV's MIKE LE COUTEUR). Also in the room that night: MICHAEL CHONG and JOHN BRASSARD. — Collaboration, not conflict: Vecchio appeared on an episode of Conservative MP MICHELLE FERRERI's YouTube show last May. Here's what she had to say about her approach to chairing a committee: "It's about coming up with solutions that actually work, and a lot of times I look at the fact that we don't find balance because people don't talk. You know me, Michelle. I talk. And if you ask my husband, I like to talk it out, I like to fight it out. And that's how we get to solutions. If we're not talking, we're not trying to find a solution. That's why when in Parliament, I look and I go, 'Are we trying to find a fight or find a solution?' That's why on the status of women, I really focus on that collaboration." Where the leaders are Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Polish President Andrzej Duda aboard HMCS Regina at Canadian Forces Base Esquimalt on Saturday. | POOL/AFP via Getty Images — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Ottawa with no events on his public itinerary. — Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND will be in Montreal. She will tour a start-up alongside Small Business Minister RECHIE VALDEZ. She will hold a media availability around 12:45 p.m. — NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH is in Coquitlam, B.C. He'll speak about diabetes coverage for Canadians at 2:30 p.m. (11:30 a.m. PT). NDP MP BONITA ZARRILLO will join. DULY NOTED — Bloomberg's BRIAN PLATT reports Honda is close to inking a major investment deal with the federal government. The agreement is expected to be announced "within a week." The automaker has logged multiple meetings this year with Finance Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND, the minister's policy director BUD SAMBASIVAM, senior tax policy bureaucrat MIODRAG JOVANOVIC, and a variety of MPs and government officials. — Governor General MARY SIMON and her husband WHIT FRASER are off to Saskatchewan for an official visit through Wednesday. The visit will “focus on reconciliation, mental health, education and climate change,” per the itinerary, and includes meetings with provincial and Indigenous leaders. MEDIA ROOM — Top of POLITICO this hour: UC Berkeley’s campus is in turmoil. It’s unlike anything in recent memory. — "Worry is starting to set in," the Star's ALTHIA RAJ writes of Liberal MPs whose seats could be vulnerable to hard-charging Conservatives on the next campaign trail. — On his latest “Daveberta” pod, DAVE COURNOYER unpacks Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH's fundraising juggernaut. — Former Liberal Cabmin JOHN MANLEY trotted out his Seinfeld Theory of Canadian Politics in conversation with Global's MERCEDES STEPHENSON. He's done this before. — Findings from Abacus's latest poll: Poilievre is better at putting out a fire. Trudeau is better at hosting a party. — From APTN News: O’Chiese First Nation disappointed federal budget didn’t come with cash for roads. STEVEN GUILBEAULT's ear status: burning. PROZONE For POLITICO Pro subscribers, our latest policy newsletter from ZI-ANN LUM: What Poland sees in Alberta. From Pro's ZACK COLMAN this hour: White House announces low-income solar grants. In other news for Pro readers: — The House TikTok bill just passed. Now what? — A call to tax the rich, airfare and energy as climate cash sputters. — Biden administration to issue carbon market 'guardrails.' — Floods, war and US inflation crash the IMF party. — Interior finalizes Arctic oil restrictions, rejects Ambler Road. PLAYBOOKERS Birthdays: HBD to 3M Canada's JACKIE CHOQUETTE, retired journo SUHANA MEHARCHAND, Greektown head MARY FRAGEDAKIS, former MP VAL MEREDITH and retired senators GHISLAIN MALTAIS (80!) and CÉLINE HERVIEUX-PAYETTE. Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Send it all our way. Spotted: Ottawa Mayor MARK SUTCLIFFE, running the London Marathon and drumming up support for race weekend back home. Movers and shakers: STEPHEN CURRAN, a 48-year-old lawyer, won the Conservative nomination in North Vancouver, B.C. — where he'll take on JONATHAN WILKINSON. Rubicon's ANDY SINGH posted an April 12 meeting in the lobbyist registry on behalf of the United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners of America. In the meeting: Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU, Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND, Housing Minister SEAN FRASER, International Development Minister AHMED HUSSEN, Trade Minister MARY NG, and Liberal MPs MANINDER SIDHU, TONY VAN BYNEN, MAJID JOWHARI, FRANCESCO SORBARA, LEAH TAYLOR ROY, CHAD COLLINS and PAUL CHIANG. In memoriam: TERRY ANDERSON, the Associated Press correspondent who became one of America’s longest-held hostages after he was snatched from a street in war-torn Lebanon, has died at 76, the AP reports. ON THE HILL → Find House committees here. → Keep track of Senate committees here. Parliament returns April 29. We're tracking every major political event of 2024 on a mega-calendar. Send us events and download the calendar yourself for Google and other clients . TRIVIA Friday's answer: The last two MPs called to the bar of the House: Former Canadian Alliance MP KEITH MARTIN and the late IAN WADDELL. Props to PENELOPE ANGELOPOULOS, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, DOUG RICE, RALPH LEVENSTEIN, MARCEL MARCOTTE, SCOTT LOHNES, BOB GORDON, PATRICK DION, BENEDICTA ARTHUR, CHRIS RANDS, DAN FONDA, MATT DELISLE, DARREN MAJOR and JIM CAMPBELL.  Today’s question: On this day in history Canadian troops were subjected to what new and illegal weapon? Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage. Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.   Follow us on Twitter Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey Sue Allan @susan_allan Maura Forrest @MauraForrest Kyle Duggan @Kyle_Duggan Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters Follow us

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