House GOP’s other potential margin problem

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Apr 23, 2024 View in browser   By Katherine Tully-McManus With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team If Democrats secure a true majority before the end of the 118th Congress, it would be the first time control of the House has ever flipped in the middle of a congressional term. | AP WHAT HAPPENS IF DEMS GET A MAJORITY MID-CONGRESS  With all the recent resignations in Congress, Speaker Mike Johnson’s majority has become so thin that if just a handful of Republicans leave Congress before November, he could be left with a Democratic majority. Right now, that magic number is four GOP lawmakers — at least until four special elections in the next few months tip margins more in the GOP’s favor. And while Republicans likely would not resign to that tipping point, this Congress has prompted a large number to willingly head for the exits, and various personal issues are always a factor in a body of 435 people. So we had two key questions: What would it mean if there were more Democrats than Republicans in Congress? Could Democrats trigger a so-called motion to vacate the speaker and install a Speaker Hakeem Jeffries? We know it’s unlikely, but indulge us in the thought experiment. If Democrats secure a true majority before the end of the 118th Congress, it would be the first time control of the House has ever flipped in the middle of a congressional term. (It happened in the Senate in 2001.) That means the leadership situation is uncharted, but there is some doubt that a motion to vacate would even be needed. Under the rules hashed out by then-speaker hopeful Kevin McCarthy at the start of this Congress, any member from either party can force a vote to remove the speaker. But some Congress-watchers think it wouldn’t necessarily come to that, since the speaker’s power would be neutered without a true majority. Matt Glassman, a senior fellow at the Government Affairs Institute at Georgetown University, told Inside Congress that he could see Johnson acknowledging that Republicans don’t hold the majority and to resign the speakership. “He might say — just like Boehner did — ‘I'm gonna resign the office pending an election of my successor,’” Glassman suggested. Resigning would avoid another speaker pro tempore nightmare (flashback to Rep. Patrick McHenry’s (R-N.C.) angry gavel). Boehner, of course, oversaw the election of a successor from within his conference; he did not hand his gavel to a Democrat. Glassman added that a resolution to vacate the speakership once the GOP has already lost the majority would be “unnecessarily antagonistic,” assuming Johnson doesn’t make swift transition plans. But then again, this has been a congressional session like no other. What a party flip really leaves in flux is the inner workings of Congress, like control and operation of committees and what big-swing legislative opportunities Democrats would actually have, given the realities of a slim Senate majority. The big caveats to this thought experiment: There are two critical pressure points that stack up to a very strong case that a party flip and sudden Jeffries speakership won’t come to pass: The upcoming special elections and the reality that no one wants to be the retirement who actually tips the scale. The Specials: There are four special elections stacked up over the next two months that are expected to slightly replenish Republicans' severely depleted majority. Just one of the races — next week’s NY-26 to replace former Democratic Rep. Brian Higgins — is the only one tilted in the Democrats’ favor. The rest, in California, Ohio and Colorado, are pretty solidly red and are expected to send three new Republicans to join the House GOP. The Tipping Point: It is hard to imagine a level of frustration with serving in the 118th Congress that would prompt a GOP lawmaker to be the final retirement that would flip control of the House, giving Democrats total control over Congress and the White House. Molly Reynolds, a senior fellow at Brookings who studies Congress, said she doubted that “a voluntary act by a member of Congress” would do it. Even a sweet compensation package from Palantir or a performing arts center wouldn’t drive a member to take the heat for handing Democrats the keys and the gavel. “I think it would have to be something almost catastrophic,” Reynolds said. — Katherine Tully-McManus, with assist from Daniella Diaz   THE GOLD STANDARD OF POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries—finance, defense, technology, healthcare, energy—equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists. Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other—with teams embedded in the world’s most active legislative and regulatory power centers. From Brussels to Washington, New York to London, Sacramento to Paris, we bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY.     GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Tuesday, April 23, where the azaleas on Capitol Hill are out in all their glory, don’t miss them. CANTWELL’S STEP BACK ON TIKTOK BILL Senators are poised to clear legislation that would force TikTok to divest from its current Chinese ownership within a year — and Commerce Committee Chair Maria Cantwell is pleased with the eventual result, despite her prior reluctance to endorse a similar House-passed bill on the social media app. “We think this works for now,” the Washington Democrat told Inside Congress. “With the date change, you give a true chance [for] divestiture.” Asked what her message would be to young people concerned about losing access to one of their favorite apps, Cantwell replied: “They'll have a new and improved version.” The piece of the House package containing the forced TikTok divestiture piece cleared the House in an overwhelming 360-58 Saturday vote. The Senate will vote on a merged version of the separate bills passed by the other chamber. Still, Cantwell sees real limits to the TikTok-specific nature of the legislation. “This can't be a specific rifle shot. It has to be a broader policy,” she said. “We still need to achieve that. But no one over there, according to [former Rep. Mike] Gallagher and [Rep. Raja] Krishnamoorthi, were willing to trust anybody to do that.” Senators expect a potentially late night Tuesday on passage of the full foreign aid package and TikTok bill. They could also wrap early Wednesday morning. — Anthony Adragna FIRST “SQUAD” PRIMARY THIS YEAR Rep. Summer Lee (D-Pa.) is the first Squad member to face a 2024 primary. And the outcome of Pennsylvania’s 12th District contest could provide signs of what’s ahead for progressives facing questions back home about the Israel-Hamas war. Lee, who is facing off against local borough council member Bhavini Patel, condemned the Oct. 7 attack on Israel by Hamas. But she has also been an outspoken critic of Israel, as her Pittsburgh-based district with a prominent Jewish community grapples with the conflict. She hasn’t, however, faced any spending from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, who spent money against her in 2022. Instead, as POLITICO previously reported, negative spending has come from Moderate PAC, a group funded primarily by GOP megadonor Jeff Yass that has poured money into supporting Patel. While Lee is expected to win her primary and has vastly outraised her opponent, expect the Israel-Hamas war to stay a hot issue in Democratic primaries. The next Squad members to watch closely to see if the war has staying power in primaries: Reps. Ilhan Omar, Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush. — Daniella Diaz and Nicholas Wu HUDDLE HOTDISH It was a Barry Black double feature Tuesday morning. Eric Hovde seems to have had some trouble with the Pledge of Allegiance. QUICK LINKS  The first test of the ‘Squad,’ and a presidential protest vote: Five storylines for Pennsylvania’s primaries, by Jessica Piper and Steven Shepard Michigan congressman reaps campaign windfall on cryptocurrency investment from Melissa Nann Burke at the Detroit News How an expensive bet by Emily’s List in an Orange County congressional race went awry from Laura J. Nelson at the LA Times   THE GOLD STANDARD OF POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. POLITICO Pro dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries—finance, defense, technology, healthcare, energy—equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists. Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other—with teams embedded in the world’s most active legislative and regulatory power centers. From Brussels to Washington, New York to London, Sacramento to Paris, we bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY.     TRANSITIONS  Send your transitions to insidecongress@politico.com and we’ll include! TOMORROW IN CONGRESS The House is out. The Senate is ??? WEDNESDAY AROUND THE HILL Quiet. TRIVIA MONDAY’S ANSWER: Kevin Diestelow was the first to correctly guess that Ted Kennedy was the long-serving senator who was offered a tryout with the Green Bay Packers on his graduation from Harvard. TODAY’S QUESTION, from Jordain: Which senator is Henry Clay related to? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@politico.com. GET INSIDE CONGRESS emailed to your phone each evening.   Follow us

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