| | | | |  | | By Joe Gould and Matt Berg | |  The Biden administration informally asked lawmakers in February to approve the sale of fighter jets valued at $18 billion, along with munitions. | Mosa'ab Elshamy/AP Photo | With help from Alex Ward and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric President JOE BIDEN wants Congress to greenlight new weapons sales to Israel that would arrive years down the line, but lawmakers are hesitant to do so because of Israel’s actions now. The Biden administration informally asked lawmakers in February to approve the sale of F-15 fighter jets valued at $18 billion, along with munitions. But many Democratic lawmakers want to place conditions on aid to Israel — something the administration has opposed. Even some of Biden’s close allies are now open to the idea of using aid to put pressure on Israel. Those weapons arguably have little to do with the current battle against Hamas and could take years to reach Israel, possibly after the country’s far-right government gets booted out (in Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER’s ideal world). U.S. arms sales to Israel are not normally a political cudgel. But lawmakers could withhold their approval as a tool to push Biden to change his policy toward Israel — or face headline-grabbing Democratic blowback. Here’s how they could do it: If the sale of major defense equipment reaches a certain threshold — $25 million for close allies, such as Israel — the president must formally notify Congress. Once the State Department approves a possible deal, Congress’ informal review process kicks off. State will notify the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and House Foreign Affairs Committee 20 to 40 days in advance, during which the chairs and ranking members can raise concerns or place a hold on the sales. Congressional gatekeepers can use their leverage to block sales entirely — as was long the case with F-16 fighter jets for Turkey. When the administration has formally notified Congress and announces a deal publicly, it’s usually a go. But lawmakers can also use this part of the process to modify the sales or tighten oversight, ARI TOLANY, an arms transfer expert with the Center for International Policy, told NatSec Daily. After the formal notification is given, lawmakers can introduce blocking legislation called a joint resolution of disapproval, which would have to pass the House and Senate. From there, the legislation to block arm sales would have to overcome a likely veto from the president — a high bar. While Congress has used such resolutions — notably to confront then-President DONALD TRUMP — it has never successfully adopted one. Still, the process has historically been used to score concessions from the executive branch, Tolany said. It could all amount to a public rebuke of Biden from fellow Democrats — something Biden may want to make concessions to avoid, said Center for International Policy Vice President for Government Affairs DYLAN WILLIAMS. A measure trying to check arms sales to Israel, while unlikely to pass, would “create an optics problem for the administration, with prominent lawmakers disagreeing with them in a very concrete way,” Williams told NatSec Daily. While most senators would vote against blocking arms sales, it would symbolize a turning point in U.S.-Israeli relations. The Senate almost never votes on resolutions to block U.S. military aid to Israel.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Constantly evolving to meet emerging threats. In today’s world, you need to spot the threats before they’re seen.
That’s why Lockheed Martin’s vision of 21st Century Security means pushing the boundaries of defense tech to build a new standard of deterrence and protection. Learn more. | | | | | IRAN AN ‘ACTIVE THREAT’: Iran still poses an “active threat” to Israel following this weekend’s concerns over Tehran attacking the country, National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY told reporters today. Iranian media reported that Tehran told Washington it would refrain from attacking Israel if the U.S. secures a cease-fire in Gaza, per The Jerusalem Post. Iran had threatened to retaliate following the Israeli strike last week that killed senior Iranian commanders. Tehran has “not sent that message” to the U.S. about refraining from an attack, State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER told reporters today, adding that the U.S. has made it clear that Iran shouldn’t escalate the conflict further. Kirby made a similar point today: “If Iran desires a cease-fire in Gaza, then it should pull out all the stops, do what they can to press Hamas to accept the deal that's on the table,” he told reporters. NO DATE SET: U.S. and Israeli officials still don’t have a set date to talk about a forthcoming invasion of Rafah, Kirby also told reporters today. “Nothing set for the calendar. We were hoping to be able to do it this week, but I'm not sure that it's going to actually happen this week,” he said. “Folks are really sort of circling around sometime next week.” An Israeli official, granted anonymity to discuss sensitive planning, told our own ALEX WARD that the country’s delegation has yet to confirm when it will fly to Washington for an in-person meeting with their American counterparts. The U.S. and Israel remain in intense negotiations over how to proceed, with both sides at odds over how long it would take to evacuate roughly 1.4 million Palestinian in the city to safety. Israeli officials, including Defense Minister YOAV GALLANT, insist they could send Palestinians northward in just one month. American officials, such as national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN and Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, argue such a process could take up to four months. Israel, meanwhile, is showing no sign that it will stop its military operation anytime soon. On Sunday, Gallant said Israeli troops are being withdrawn from the battle-scarred city of Khan Younis to prepare for a new offensive into Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. Gallant reiterated Israel’s position that hostilities will continue until “we will reach a situation where Hamas does not control the Gaza Strip and where it does not function as a military framework that poses a risk to the citizens of the State of Israel.” Today, Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU was clear: “This victory requires entering Rafah and eliminating the terrorist battalions there. This will happen; there is a date,” he said in a statement, without specifying the date. And Hamas isn’t backing down either. On Saturday, HuffPost’s AKBAR SHAHID AHMED asked senior Hamas official MOUSA ABU MARZOUK about the possibility of a multinational force sending troops to Gaza. Our colleagues scooped that administration officials are in preliminary “conversations” about a proposal for the Pentagon to help fund either a multinational force or a Palestinian peacekeeping team. Abu Marzouk responded: “As a movement, we will fight against any force, whether it was from any nationality, in the Gaza Strip.” GAZA CEASE-FIRE LATEST: A Hamas official told Reuters’ NIDAL AL-MUGHRABI and AHMED MOHAMED HASSAN that no progress was made in the latest round of discussions with negotiators to agree to a cease-fire in Gaza. “There is no change in the position of the occupation and therefore, there is nothing new in the Cairo talks," the official said. On the other hand, Kirby told reporters today that “a proposal has been presented to Hamas, and we're waiting on Hamas’ response.”
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RUSSIAN TROLLING: A trove of internal Kremlin documents shows that Russia is coordinating a sprawling campaign to influence congressional and other political debates to stoke anti-Ukraine sentiment in the United States, The Washington Post’s CATHERINE BELTON and JOSEPH MENN report.
“Kremlin-linked political strategists and trolls have written thousands of fabricated news articles, social media posts and comments that promote American isolationism, stir fear over the United States’ border security and attempt to amplify U.S. economic and racial tensions,” the Post writes, citing docs obtained by a European intelligence service. The strategy, outlined in documents dating between May 2022 and August 2023, promotes views from the far-right and calls on some of the messaging to be voiced by “public opinion leaders and politicians,” per one of the documents. Though no politicians were named, news of the strategy comes a day after Rep. MIKE TURNER (R-Ohio) agreed with Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas) that some of their fellow members of Congress were parroting Russian propaganda in discussing the Russia-Ukraine war on the House floor. “To the extent that this propaganda takes hold, it makes it more difficult for us to really see this as an authoritarian versus democracy battle, which is what it is,” Turner told CNN. IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1.
| | | |   | | | | | TRUMP’S ACTUAL RUSSIA-UKRAINE PLAN: Former President Trump’s plan to end the war in Ukraine involves Kyiv ceding some territory to Moscow, the Post’s ISAAC ARNSDORF, JOSH DAWSEY and MICHAEL BIRNBAUM report. A potential Trump pressure campaign on Ukraine, which would involve Ukraine giving up Crimea and the Donbas border region of Russia, would dramatically reverse the Biden administration’s stance and infuriate Kyiv’s leadership. But in private, Trump has said that both Russia and Ukraine “want to save face, they want a way out,” a person familiar with the talks told the Post. The former president added that he believes people in parts of Ukraine would be fine with ceding some territory to end the war. Trump’s plan was discussed in November at a Heritage Foundation meeting, which Heritage fellow JAMES CARAFANO attended. He wouldn’t comment to the Post about the meeting’s details, but offered some spicy words about the plan itself. “That is stupid idea 101,” he said. “Anything you could give Russia that they would really value would compromise all your other interests. The way to deal with the Russia-China relationship is to make Russia a weaker partner.”
| | | RINSE AND REPEAT: Sen. CHUCK GRASSLEY (R-Iowa) is ripping into seven federal agencies over their sluggish efforts to lock down the nation’s critical infrastructure from disruptive cyberattacks, according to a round of letters obtained by our friends at Morning Cybersecurity (for Pros!). The top Republican on the Senate Budget Committee fired off those missives Friday afternoon to the heads of the departments of Defense, Homeland Security, Energy, Transportation, Treasury, the Environmental Protection Agency and Health and Human Services — all of which have outstanding recommendations from Congress’ watchdog to beef up their cyber defenses. Grassley is hitting the agencies on everything from their processes for reporting cyber incidents to their engagement with private stakeholders. He’s now asking for records detailing how exactly they prioritize risks across sectors like energy, finance and defense that nation-state hackers are targeting. Read: The House Dems who keep using TikTok while voting against it by our own REBECCA KERN
| | CANADA, NAY? Canada won’t meet its NATO defense spending commitments anytime soon, a long-awaited major defense policy update revealed today. As our own KYLE DUGAN reports (for Pros!): Canada committed, alongside its allies, to spend 2 percent of GDP on defense. But Ottawa’s most recent projections have its defense spend-to-GDP ratio hit 1.76 percent in … 2029-30, at a ballpark of $42.5 billion. Canada is the only country in the defensive bloc that’s lagging on both the 2 percent figure and another target: spending 20 percent of defense spending on equipment. That figure, senior Canadian defense officials said, will hit the requirement by fiscal 2025-2026, saving Ottawa from at least one major embarrassment. The update, however, does signal Canada is in the market for a slew of new equipment and vehicles, ranging from submarines and helicopters to long-range missiles. ICYMI — Navy cancels ship briefings after damning internal report by our own PAUL McLEARY, CONNOR O’BRIEN and LEE HUDSON
| | WHAT TO WATCH: Welcome back lawmakers, and goodbye to the relative peace and quiet on the Hill. Here’s all things natsec to keep an eye on, as our own ANTHONY ADRAGNA outlines: Foreign aid: Watch Speaker MIKE JOHNSON this week for any indication of how he plans to proceed on a foreign aid package aimed at helping Ukraine and Israel. He’s floated “innovations” to garner more GOP support for the legislation. DHS impeachment: The Senate returns tonight and will vote to advance the nomination of a Nebraska federal judicial nominee. But the week's real action kicks off Wednesday, when the chamber is expected to receive the articles of impeachment against ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS. One key thing to watch Monday night: Any signs of senatorial attendance issues, as Democrats mull whether to try and speedily end the Homeland Security secretary impeachment trial on a majority-threshold vote, which could pass with a simple majority of the chamber instead of the higher 60-vote threshold needed to kill filibusters. Any major absences could complicate that math. Surveillance authority: Over in the House, the chamber intends to move legislation to reauthorize a controversial surveillance authority, known as Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. The House Rules Committee intends to meet on Tuesday to consider the pending bill.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, the newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world, including WEF in Davos, Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to UNGA in NYC and many more. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | MEXICO’S ECUADOR PROBLEM: More than a dozen countries, including the United States, condemned Ecuador over the weekend after its police raided the Mexican embassy, causing the countries to sever diplomatic ties, the AP’s REGINA GARCIA CANO and GABRIELA MOLINA report. Ecuadorian forces broke into the embassy Friday night to arrest JORGE GLAS, a former vice president who had sought asylum there after being indicted on corruption charges. Officials around the world have deemed the action a violation of long-established international accords. “Not even the dictator Pinochet had dared to enter the Mexican embassy in Chile,” said Alicia Bárcena, Mexico’s secretary of foreign relations, on Sunday, referring to the late Chilean dictator AUGUSTO PINOCHET. “They entered violently and without authorization, physically assaulting [diplomats]. We energetically condemn it.” State Department spokesperson MATTHEW MILLER called on the countries to resolve the dispute, but said the U.S. “condemns any violation of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, and takes very seriously the obligation of host countries under international law to respect the inviolability of diplomatic missions.”
| | — DIVYANSH KAUSHIK is joining Beacon Global Strategies as its vice president. He most recently worked as associate director at the Federation of American Scientists. He’ll also be a non-resident senior fellow at both FAS and American Policy Ventures. — DIANA SHAW will join Wiley Rein’s international trade and white collar practices as a partner. She most recently served as acting inspector general for the State Department. — BRIAN WEEDEN, former chief program officer for Secure World Foundation, joined Aerospace Corporation’s Center for Space Policy and Strategy as the lead for the policy and regulatory team.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: A bigger perspective to the battlespace.
Seeing the whole picture is Lockheed Martin’s vision of 21st Century Security – innovating defense tech to deliver answers exactly when and where they’re needed most. Learn more. | | | | | — DAVID CAMERON and STEPHANE SEJOURNE, The Telegraph: The world is safer for a renewed Entente — SUZANNE LYNCH, POLITICO: Occupy Brussels! VIKTOR ORBÁN’s plan for Europe — MARC TRACY, The New York Times: J Street seeks a middle path on Gaza. Is that possible anymore?
| | — Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: Hearing on the Defense Department budget request for FY2025 and the Future Years Defense Program — Wilson Center's Global Europe Program and Middle East Program, 9:30 a.m.: The Role of the private sector in geopolitics — Senate Appropriations Defense Subcommittee, 10 a.m.: Review of the president's FY2025 budget request for the Air Force and Space Force — Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: Restoring America's commercial maritime industrial base, focusing on the growth of China's maritime militia — Center for Strategic and International Studies and Vrije University's Center for Security, Diplomacy, and Strategy, 1:30 p.m.: Transatlantic dialogue on the Indo-Pacific — Senate Appropriations State, Foreign Operations and Related Programs Subcommittee, 2:30 p.m.: Review of the FY2025 budget request for the U.S. Agency for International Development Thanks to our editor, Jessica Meyers, who deserves to be rebuked publicly all the time. We also thank our producer, Andy Goodwin, who is showered with compliments on the daily.
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